Comments on: Dropping the Truth on Squawk

By: BrucieA

BrucieA — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 12:53:54 +0000

so… Denninger reports today that the consumer credit numbers came out, and summarizes:

Now I want you to pay particular attention to the current total leverage held by consumers – that is, the total amount of debt, excluding mortgages.

In 2004 consumers held $2.191 trillion. At the peak, they held $2.582 trillion. Today, less than three quarters later, they have cut back by an astounding $62 billion dollars in total, or a whole 2.36% – an absolutely inconsequential amount.

Consumers have de-leveraged? Uh, no.

So, I think go with Denningers numbers on that. Eventually they’ll have to deleverage – but not quite yet.

By: TheTradingReport » Blog Archive » David Rosenberg Delivers on CNBC

TheTradingReport » Blog Archive » David Rosenberg Delivers on CNBC — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 19:20:42 +0000

[...] transcribe some of Rosenberg’s discussion with the Squawk Box crew, but as Barry Ritholtz noted yesterday, his entire appearance was such a command performance that there’s simply no substitute for [...]

By: BrucieA

BrucieA — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 19:07:32 +0000

Thanks for the responses. I don’t know anyone who’s doing those things – paying down their mortgages or credit cards (as far as I know). Guess my circle’s not big enough.

The people I know that are in debt are still piling it on, and essentially *can’t* pay it back. I’ll have to introduce them to cvienne’s “The Method” – in this environment, I don’t consider it to be too unethical, particularly with rates around 30%/year. Usury, that is.

By: MattyWoo

MattyWoo — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 18:19:20 +0000

Rosie’s daily commentary is a must-read, in my opinion. He’s reasoned and sensible, and you could do well to use his analysis as actionable intelligence in your trading endeavors. For those who want to subscribe, just go to http://www.gluskinsheff.com. The link’s on the homepage.

By: tradeking13

tradeking13 — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 17:30:58 +0000

I am sick of people dismissing the unemployment number as a lagging indicator. Guys on TV like Carl Quintinia having been repeating that mantra for 6-12 months now. Maybe they’ll shut up now.

By: Bob the unemployed

Bob the unemployed — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 17:15:45 +0000

I’ve only had the chance to listen to the first segment so far. Before this comment there have been lots of good comments on the content of the clip. I also think the context of the clip is worth mentioning for two reasons:

1) the CNBC hosts let Rosie speak. They did not interrupt him, they did not try to put their own views into his; they just asked a reasonably good question and then they let him answer it.

2) no right-wing political garbage was gratuitously inserted into the discussion, as CNBC hosts have done in the recent past.

I hope those two contextual items represent a new direction for CNBC. Gee, with this quality of interviewing, I may even start watching CNBC again.

By: cvienne

cvienne — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 15:59:10 +0000

@danm (11:04)

You said it very well my friend…

That’s why I decided to go RENEWABLE ENERGY…I’m even afraid of THAT supply either being disrupted, or getting priced out of sight…

I’m doing a lot of work on the West Virginia place in exactly the manner you describe (frontloading the next 20 years of expenditures into 2009)…

Besides household goods, just wait until you see how many jalopies are going to be on the road in the next 5 years…I think “cash for clunkers” is a good idea, but once that wave is completed, I think a new car is going to be rarer & rarer to see…

By: Mark E Hoffer

Mark E Hoffer — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 15:43:52 +0000

“I believe that this is the best time to buy anything. As the economy tanks, supply will dwindle and even if inflation does not appear, my gut tells me there will be less choice.”…”I’m convinced that in a few years, a lot of discretionary stuff is going to disappear.”–danm

dan,

that’s one of the more intelligent takes I’ve come across, lately. and, as you can see in the comments, subsequent to yours, others agree.

nice add.
~~

By: Mannwich

Mannwich — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 15:17:46 +0000

@danm: I’m with you. My wife and I are doing similar things – replacing most of our old windows and probably getting one of the bathrooms re-done but after that we’re done on the home reno/improvement stuff for likely a LONG time. In my mind, we are merely keeping the place up and preparing for a period of possibly hunkering down. These renovations don’t reflect much, if any, real optimism on our part re: the short to mid-term prospects of the economy or even our own situation.

By: I-Man

I-Man — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 15:14:33 +0000

@ Danm:

The prices of lumber have come way down… I noticed that when I built my new garden beds a few months ago. I couldnt believe the prices on good lumber at Lowes. They must be down at least 30% from last spring. But thats just a guess.