Comments on: Explaining Non Farm Payroll & Analysis http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/explaining-non-farm-payroll-analysis/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 21 Nov 2009 08:40:44 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: batmando http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/explaining-non-farm-payroll-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-189338 batmando Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:30:32 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=30758#comment-189338 Steve Barry at 9:51 am Good point…a business can cut a worker or save the same money by not firing someone, just cutting everyone’s hours. Case-in-Point: As I reported last month, 26 FT employees here at SW Ohio mfr of heavy-duty ag products processing machinery, cut back to 4 day weeks in June, going to 3 day weeks in July if no new orders are confirmed this week. Come August, if no new orders, lay-offs commence. 4-day weeks for 26 employees = ~5 employees 3-day weeks for 26 employees = ~10 employees so at least 10 jobs will be gone come August if no new orders are confirme Steve Barry at 9:51 am
Good point…a business can cut a worker or save the same money by not firing someone, just cutting everyone’s hours.
Case-in-Point:
As I reported last month, 26 FT employees here at SW Ohio mfr of heavy-duty ag products processing machinery, cut back to 4 day weeks in June, going to 3 day weeks in July if no new orders are confirmed this week. Come August, if no new orders, lay-offs commence.
4-day weeks for 26 employees = ~5 employees
3-day weeks for 26 employees = ~10 employees
so at least 10 jobs will be gone come August if no new orders are confirme

]]> By: Onlooker from Troy http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/explaining-non-farm-payroll-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-189327 Onlooker from Troy Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:21:27 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=30758#comment-189327 I am not a lawyer of any type, and maybe it's been addressed here lately and I've missed it, but how is CA's issuing of IOUs not the minting of money? And therefore unconstitutional. I'm going to have to do some looking around to see what I can find on this. I am not a lawyer of any type, and maybe it’s been addressed here lately and I’ve missed it, but how is CA’s issuing of IOUs not the minting of money? And therefore unconstitutional. I’m going to have to do some looking around to see what I can find on this.

]]> By: leftback http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/explaining-non-farm-payroll-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-189250 leftback Thu, 02 Jul 2009 15:57:57 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=30758#comment-189250 Housing prices appear to be falling in Bankhattan. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=aKJTtME9cUhY The credit market still seems to be overlooking the CA funding crisis almost entirely. It's the world's 8th largest economy for chrissakes !! Housing prices appear to be falling in Bankhattan.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=aKJTtME9cUhY

The credit market still seems to be overlooking the CA funding crisis almost entirely.
It’s the world’s 8th largest economy for chrissakes !!

]]> By: Bruce in Tn http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/explaining-non-farm-payroll-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-189109 Bruce in Tn Thu, 02 Jul 2009 14:31:27 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=30758#comment-189109 I am a big fan of the numbers, Barry, and today in an hour I bet we'll have something interesting to say... Permit me to post this while we wait: http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-california-budget2-2009jul02,0,4522104.story "Chiang was set to print 28,742 IOUs starting at 2 p.m., said Garin Casaleggio, a spokesman for the controller. The initial warrants, which total $53.3 million, will go primarily to people who are expecting state income-tax refunds. The state last issued IOUs in 1992." ,,,,I couldn't help but be struck by the fact that the first IOU's won't go to any entity with clout...instead it will go to taxpayers expecting refunds for taxes paid....this is just about what you'd expect in this time of cynicism for our governmental leaders...it can't be a good thing.. I am a big fan of the numbers, Barry, and today in an hour I bet we’ll have something interesting to say…

Permit me to post this while we wait:

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-california-budget2-2009jul02,0,4522104.story

“Chiang was set to print 28,742 IOUs starting at 2 p.m., said Garin Casaleggio, a spokesman for the controller. The initial warrants, which total $53.3 million, will go primarily to people who are expecting state income-tax refunds. The state last issued IOUs in 1992.”

,,,,I couldn’t help but be struck by the fact that the first IOU’s won’t go to any entity with clout…instead it will go to taxpayers expecting refunds for taxes paid….this is just about what you’d expect in this time of cynicism for our governmental leaders…it can’t be a good thing..

]]> By: jc http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/explaining-non-farm-payroll-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-189111 jc Thu, 02 Jul 2009 14:30:29 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=30758#comment-189111 Off topic, what impact do you think upping F&F mort capability to 25% underwater (vs measly 5%) will have? How important will appraisals be in areas where there are a lot of 50% off foreclosure sales, do appraisers diregard those low values - even when they account for 1/2 the closings in an area? -125% only applies to primary morts so I'm guessing an awful lot of homes with second morts & HELOCs will get knocked out.I assume these are non-recourse so uncle sugar will really be on the hook bigtime Off topic, what impact do you think upping F&F mort capability to 25% underwater (vs measly 5%) will have?

How important will appraisals be in areas where there are a lot of 50% off foreclosure sales, do appraisers diregard those low values – even when they account for 1/2 the closings in an area?

-125% only applies to primary morts so I’m guessing an awful lot of homes with second morts & HELOCs will get knocked out.I assume these are non-recourse so uncle sugar will really be on the hook bigtime

]]> By: Todd http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/explaining-non-farm-payroll-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-189174 Todd Thu, 02 Jul 2009 14:14:49 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=30758#comment-189174 Today is setting up to be a good fade the gap day. Nothing has changed, the only positive news I see coming out is that car inventories will be falling for GM and Chrysler. The real numbers are the Steady rate of 600k initial claims. The unemployment initial numbers are always adjusted. It has always under reported in the direction of the momentum. Today is setting up to be a good fade the gap day.

Nothing has changed, the only positive news I see coming out is that car inventories will be falling for GM and Chrysler.

The real numbers are the Steady rate of 600k initial claims. The unemployment initial numbers are always adjusted. It has always under reported in the direction of the momentum.

]]> By: rootless_cosmopolitan http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/explaining-non-farm-payroll-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-189163 rootless_cosmopolitan Thu, 02 Jul 2009 13:53:18 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=30758#comment-189163 Barry, I understand your hypothesis, which you have repeated in your reply to my comment. I even think there is some plausibility in what you are saying. But saying what you think what is happening is not the same as proving it using actual data. For instance, it has been pretty clear to me that you think the B/D-adjustment led to a significant overestimation of the nonfarm payroll numbers for the year 2007. But if this is true why were the nonfarm payroll numbers revised down only slightly in March 2008, when the benchmark revision was done? Maybe your hypothesis will be supported when we know the data from the benchmark revision of March 2009. It's possible that the overestimation is not significant at the peak of the business cycle, but during the contraction phase. rc Barry, I understand your hypothesis, which you have repeated in your reply to my comment. I even think there is some plausibility in what you are saying. But saying what you think what is happening is not the same as proving it using actual data. For instance, it has been pretty clear to me that you think the B/D-adjustment led to a significant overestimation of the nonfarm payroll numbers for the year 2007. But if this is true why were the nonfarm payroll numbers revised down only slightly in March 2008, when the benchmark revision was done? Maybe your hypothesis will be supported when we know the data from the benchmark revision of March 2009. It’s possible that the overestimation is not significant at the peak of the business cycle, but during the contraction phase.

rc

]]> By: Steve Barry http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/explaining-non-farm-payroll-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-189162 Steve Barry Thu, 02 Jul 2009 13:51:42 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=30758#comment-189162 @Amen: Good point...a business can cut a worker or save the same money by not firing someone, just cutting everyone's hours. @Amen:

Good point…a business can cut a worker or save the same money by not firing someone, just cutting everyone’s hours.

]]> By: AmenRa http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/explaining-non-farm-payroll-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-189161 AmenRa Thu, 02 Jul 2009 13:48:58 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=30758#comment-189161 @Andy T weekly hours > unemployment rate > # jobs lost. As long as the weekly hours stay the same the reaction is muted. But when the hours decrease AND the rate increases then we have a problem ;) @Andy T

weekly hours > unemployment rate > # jobs lost. As long as the weekly hours stay the same the reaction is muted. But when the hours decrease AND the rate increases then we have a problem ;)

]]> By: Steve Barry http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/explaining-non-farm-payroll-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-189160 Steve Barry Thu, 02 Jul 2009 13:48:05 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=30758#comment-189160 Again, given the slaughter in retail I see everyday, small businesses are hemorrhaging jobs...since the B/D is adding close to 200K a month, the headline number is a joke...work week, temp hours and U6 are much more useful, if you can trust them. Again, given the slaughter in retail I see everyday, small businesses are hemorrhaging jobs…since the B/D is adding close to 200K a month, the headline number is a joke…work week, temp hours and U6 are much more useful, if you can trust them.

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