The Big Picture - Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Technology, and Digital Media

The final July U of Michigan confidence number was 1 point higher than expected at 66 and up from 64.6 in the preliminary reading but is still down from 70.8 in June which was the highest since Feb ’08. The improvement in the final survey was led by the Outlook component which rose 2.3 points while Current Conditions were up just .1 point. From June, Current Conditions fell 2.7 points and the Outlook fell 6 points. One year inflation expectations fell to 2.9% from the preliminary level of 3% and 3.1% in June likely due to lower gasoline prices which are down $.16 this month according to AAA, which if sustained, equates to an annualized savings to the consumer in the aggregate of around $22b. Confidence data is never market moving and is more anecdotal in nature as how individuals feel can differ from how they act.