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	<title>Comments on: Taleb&#8217;s Fix for Housing: Convert Debt to Equity</title>
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	<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/fixing-housing/</link>
	<description>Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sat, 21 Nov 2009 20:51:56 -0500</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: bdg123</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/fixing-housing/comment-page-1/#comment-193325</link>
		<dc:creator>bdg123</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 18:30:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=32221#comment-193325</guid>
		<description>The answers aren&#039;t that difficult.  There are plenty of smart people who can come up with answer.  But, tax deductions only work if you have a job or if the home is actually not vacant.  Given the enormity of those problems coupled with the amount of people who don&#039;t even pay taxes when the is decent let alone today, and no solution involving the tax code will work.

A simple solution would have just been to use the HOLC recommended by Blinder.   Schiller has come up with ideas as well.  Being able to suspend payments, reduce payments, increase payments according to ability to pay.  Another solution would be to nationalize the mortgage business (the vast majority is anyway) and do a one time price adjustment and simply write it off of the government books.  ie, Monetize it.   It won&#039;t cause inflation but the government would be forced to re-institute fiscal discipline because the market would demand higher rates.  

There are hundreds of solutions.  That isn&#039;t the problem.  The problem is that there is no political leadership beholden to the American people.  Only to the crooks.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The answers aren&#8217;t that difficult.  There are plenty of smart people who can come up with answer.  But, tax deductions only work if you have a job or if the home is actually not vacant.  Given the enormity of those problems coupled with the amount of people who don&#8217;t even pay taxes when the is decent let alone today, and no solution involving the tax code will work.</p>
<p>A simple solution would have just been to use the HOLC recommended by Blinder.   Schiller has come up with ideas as well.  Being able to suspend payments, reduce payments, increase payments according to ability to pay.  Another solution would be to nationalize the mortgage business (the vast majority is anyway) and do a one time price adjustment and simply write it off of the government books.  ie, Monetize it.   It won&#8217;t cause inflation but the government would be forced to re-institute fiscal discipline because the market would demand higher rates.  </p>
<p>There are hundreds of solutions.  That isn&#8217;t the problem.  The problem is that there is no political leadership beholden to the American people.  Only to the crooks.</p>
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		<title>By: Transor Z</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/fixing-housing/comment-page-1/#comment-193282</link>
		<dc:creator>Transor Z</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 16:53:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=32221#comment-193282</guid>
		<description>@ben22:
50% as worst case in the sense that half of defaulting borrowers relapse after &quot;renegotiation.&quot; But take a good look at how that term is used by the Fed. The 50% rate was supplied by Barclay&#039;s in a different piece and applies to Countrywide...

No one suggests the banks be &quot;blown up.&quot; The fact is the recovery on foreclosure is lower than preserving the revenue stream by making the terms affordable. But uno accurately points out that the banks are clinging to relaxed accounting rules and mark to model to boost balance sheets. Thus their accounting fiction fig leaf is threatened. That can be addressed in0 various ways, federal guarantees being just one.

IMO all of this that I&#039;m proposing is academic if you rate the risk of further systemic collapse due to foreclosures as very low.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@ben22:<br />
50% as worst case in the sense that half of defaulting borrowers relapse after &#8220;renegotiation.&#8221; But take a good look at how that term is used by the Fed. The 50% rate was supplied by Barclay&#8217;s in a different piece and applies to Countrywide&#8230;</p>
<p>No one suggests the banks be &#8220;blown up.&#8221; The fact is the recovery on foreclosure is lower than preserving the revenue stream by making the terms affordable. But uno accurately points out that the banks are clinging to relaxed accounting rules and mark to model to boost balance sheets. Thus their accounting fiction fig leaf is threatened. That can be addressed in0 various ways, federal guarantees being just one.</p>
<p>IMO all of this that I&#8217;m proposing is academic if you rate the risk of further systemic collapse due to foreclosures as very low.</p>
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		<title>By: ben22</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/fixing-housing/comment-page-1/#comment-193258</link>
		<dc:creator>ben22</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 16:05:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=32221#comment-193258</guid>
		<description>Transor, 

Thanks, I&#039;ll check that out.  Though, last time I read a worst case scenario, which was in the Stress Test report, it wasn&#039;t exactly reality based. 

I&#039;m with uno on the bank comments towards her as well.  As much as we&#039;d all love to see the banks eat it on these, does anyone really believe that

a.  that is going to actually happen and 
2.  that if it did happen it wouldn&#039;t do anything but lead to more pain for the average Joe 

the size of our debtload should help people understand and grasp how desperate many households are to access credit on a regular basis.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Transor, </p>
<p>Thanks, I&#8217;ll check that out.  Though, last time I read a worst case scenario, which was in the Stress Test report, it wasn&#8217;t exactly reality based. </p>
<p>I&#8217;m with uno on the bank comments towards her as well.  As much as we&#8217;d all love to see the banks eat it on these, does anyone really believe that</p>
<p>a.  that is going to actually happen and<br />
2.  that if it did happen it wouldn&#8217;t do anything but lead to more pain for the average Joe </p>
<p>the size of our debtload should help people understand and grasp how desperate many households are to access credit on a regular basis.</p>
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		<title>By: Mark E Hoffer</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/fixing-housing/comment-page-1/#comment-193257</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark E Hoffer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 16:01:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=32221#comment-193257</guid>
		<description>can we Remember that Businesses pay &#039;Property Taxes&#039;, as well?  and, with that, at Higher Rates, usually, than &#039;Homeowers&#039; ??</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>can we Remember that Businesses pay &#8216;Property Taxes&#8217;, as well?  and, with that, at Higher Rates, usually, than &#8216;Homeowers&#8217; ??</p>
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		<title>By: uno</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/fixing-housing/comment-page-1/#comment-193244</link>
		<dc:creator>uno</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 15:43:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=32221#comment-193244</guid>
		<description>@mknowles:

We&#039;ve already seen 57+ bank failures this year.  Write homes down to &#039;market&#039; (whatever that is, and wherever that stops) and you&#039;ll see GreatER Depression fairly quickly.  You can&#039;t hammer the banks, much as they are culpable in this matter, and not see credit completely dry up and blow away.

Banks are in reality a quasi-governmental thing, m&#039;lady.  Witness the various bailouts, including Citi. And when/if the internally-funded FDIC becomes the taxpayer-funded FDIC, taxpayers will pay in spades for domino-falling bank failures.

At the end of the day we&#039;re dealing with a cash crunch during a monumental de-leveraging (de-loaning) period of time.  Short of a revolution (likely inadvisable), you can&#039;t fix that by blowing up the banks (likely enjoyable).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@mknowles:</p>
<p>We&#8217;ve already seen 57+ bank failures this year.  Write homes down to &#8216;market&#8217; (whatever that is, and wherever that stops) and you&#8217;ll see GreatER Depression fairly quickly.  You can&#8217;t hammer the banks, much as they are culpable in this matter, and not see credit completely dry up and blow away.</p>
<p>Banks are in reality a quasi-governmental thing, m&#8217;lady.  Witness the various bailouts, including Citi. And when/if the internally-funded FDIC becomes the taxpayer-funded FDIC, taxpayers will pay in spades for domino-falling bank failures.</p>
<p>At the end of the day we&#8217;re dealing with a cash crunch during a monumental de-leveraging (de-loaning) period of time.  Short of a revolution (likely inadvisable), you can&#8217;t fix that by blowing up the banks (likely enjoyable).</p>
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		<title>By: Transor Z</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/fixing-housing/comment-page-1/#comment-193242</link>
		<dc:creator>Transor Z</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 15:41:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=32221#comment-193242</guid>
		<description>@ben22: read the Boston Fed white paper posted yesterday. 50% success rate is the Fed&#039;s own worst-case figure. The data supporting win-win benefit to all parties is not otherwise in doubt.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@ben22: read the Boston Fed white paper posted yesterday. 50% success rate is the Fed&#8217;s own worst-case figure. The data supporting win-win benefit to all parties is not otherwise in doubt.</p>
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		<title>By: ben22</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/fixing-housing/comment-page-1/#comment-193240</link>
		<dc:creator>ben22</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 15:35:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=32221#comment-193240</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m not sure Prechter&#039;s idea would work either.

Home ownership after all is about much more than the taxes, or lack thereof.  I might prefer to pay a few thousand a year in property tax for example to live somewhere where it isn&#039;t so hot in the summer.  Seems simple but stuff like that is a main consideration for a home purchase, the property taxes, unless extremely high, are typically not the main reason people buy a certain home.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m not sure Prechter&#8217;s idea would work either.</p>
<p>Home ownership after all is about much more than the taxes, or lack thereof.  I might prefer to pay a few thousand a year in property tax for example to live somewhere where it isn&#8217;t so hot in the summer.  Seems simple but stuff like that is a main consideration for a home purchase, the property taxes, unless extremely high, are typically not the main reason people buy a certain home.</p>
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		<title>By: Transor Z</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/fixing-housing/comment-page-1/#comment-193237</link>
		<dc:creator>Transor Z</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 15:31:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=32221#comment-193237</guid>
		<description>@mknowles:
Exactly. My contorted presentation of what you stated very succinctly anticipates the crap that the banks and Fed are throwing at the issue.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@mknowles:<br />
Exactly. My contorted presentation of what you stated very succinctly anticipates the crap that the banks and Fed are throwing at the issue.</p>
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		<title>By: ben22</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/fixing-housing/comment-page-1/#comment-193235</link>
		<dc:creator>ben22</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 15:29:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=32221#comment-193235</guid>
		<description>@mknowles, 

I&#039;m not sure it&#039;s this simple:

Reduce principle to market value, reduce interest rate, if the homeowner still has a job, this should be enough to keep them in their home. 

I saw a chart not long ago that showed that many of these homeowners that are still in a major pinch have excess of 30% of gross income going towards the mortgage payment in many cases, and that doesn&#039;t factor in the debt payment as a % of gross income on other debts such as auto and student loans or credit cards.  You couple that with the fact that many households have to spend a very high portion of their income on needs items such as food and energy and I&#039;m not sure it&#039;s so simple to just reduce principle to market, even doing that reveals many of these homeowners still can&#039;t afford at the current price. 

How low can you lower the rates anwyay?  Weren&#039;t a lot of the borrowers that ended up in foreclosure already paying extremely low rates on some sort of ARM?

Sadly if banks take the loss as you state above, I don&#039;t know why you&#039;d believe there would then be no cost to the taxpayer, we already are paying for the subprime mess the banks helped create.

Maybe you have some data that would show your solution would actually work?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@mknowles, </p>
<p>I&#8217;m not sure it&#8217;s this simple:</p>
<p>Reduce principle to market value, reduce interest rate, if the homeowner still has a job, this should be enough to keep them in their home. </p>
<p>I saw a chart not long ago that showed that many of these homeowners that are still in a major pinch have excess of 30% of gross income going towards the mortgage payment in many cases, and that doesn&#8217;t factor in the debt payment as a % of gross income on other debts such as auto and student loans or credit cards.  You couple that with the fact that many households have to spend a very high portion of their income on needs items such as food and energy and I&#8217;m not sure it&#8217;s so simple to just reduce principle to market, even doing that reveals many of these homeowners still can&#8217;t afford at the current price. </p>
<p>How low can you lower the rates anwyay?  Weren&#8217;t a lot of the borrowers that ended up in foreclosure already paying extremely low rates on some sort of ARM?</p>
<p>Sadly if banks take the loss as you state above, I don&#8217;t know why you&#8217;d believe there would then be no cost to the taxpayer, we already are paying for the subprime mess the banks helped create.</p>
<p>Maybe you have some data that would show your solution would actually work?</p>
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		<title>By: Outlier</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/fixing-housing/comment-page-1/#comment-193232</link>
		<dc:creator>Outlier</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 15:24:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=32221#comment-193232</guid>
		<description>On a different note, anyone remember a recent interview with Taleb where he mentioned he was thinking a lot about Islam&#039;s ban on debt and the various financial solutions that emerged to take it&#039;s place within that world? Maybe it was that big Will Self piece? This particular piece of his seems to stem directly from that line of thinking, no?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On a different note, anyone remember a recent interview with Taleb where he mentioned he was thinking a lot about Islam&#8217;s ban on debt and the various financial solutions that emerged to take it&#8217;s place within that world? Maybe it was that big Will Self piece? This particular piece of his seems to stem directly from that line of thinking, no?</p>
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