us-foreclosure-heat-map-_2d00_-june-2009

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Foreclosures continue to rise. As CNN/Money wrote, “The foreclosure plague is not going away — it’s only getting worse.”

Here is the data on the first half of 2009, via RealtyTrac:

“Midyear 2009 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows a total of 1,905,723 foreclosure filings — default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions — were reported on 1,528,364 U.S. properties in the first six months of 2009, a 9 percent increase in total properties from the previous six months and a nearly 15 percent increase in total properties from the first six months of 2008. The report also shows that 1.19 percent of all U.S. housing units (one in 84) received at least one foreclosure filing in the first half of the year.”

No real estate bottom in sight . . .

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Source:
1.9 MILLION FORECLOSURE FILINGS REPORTED ON MORE THAN 1.5 MILLION U.S. PROPERTIES IN FIRST HALF OF 2009
RealtyTrac

http://www.realtytrac.com/ContentManagement/PressRelease.aspx?channelid=9&ItemID=6802

ForeclosurePulse

http://www.foreclosurepulse.com/blogs/mainblog/archive/2009/07/15/foreclosure-filings-in-the-millions-midway-through-2009.aspx

Category: Credit, Legal, Real Estate

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

217 Responses to “Foreclosures Rise 9% in 1H 2009”

  1. Bruce in Tn says:

    Well, I am proud of Tennessee. For a while we were more or less a pastel pink, certainly nothing a Vol fan could be proud of. I am happy to see that we are using the red Crayola much better now. To think, that Michigan and Ohio and Georgia were Alabama Crimson, and we had to catch up. Now just wait for a ballgame!

    …Texas…looking mighty anemic still…

  2. danm says:

    This was in my paper this morning:

    Economist Sheryl King said the latest Bank of Canada report suggests the economy could bounce back with several quarters of 10 per cent growth in the next year in a report tilted “Are markets ready for 10 per cent GDP?” The answer to her question is a solid “no.”

    I’m just wondering what would happen to bonds if this actually happened!!!

  3. call me ahab says:

    ZH’s take-

    “Look elsewhere for green shoots… and CNBC’s favorite commodity – hope. 1.9 Million foreclosure filings in the first half, 889,829 in the second quarter, with 336,173 in June alone, bringing the second quarter total to the highest number since RealtyTrac has been following these data. And this all is happening while various foreclosure moratoria and other national and state mitigation efforts are still in play.One can just imagine the bottom really falling out of the market once California and others stop pretending they can control this accelerating train wreck.”

  4. dead hobo says:

    call me ahab Says:
    July 16th, 2009 at 8:08 am

    “Look elsewhere for green shoots… and CNBC’s favorite commodity – hope.

    comment:
    —————–
    I’m feeling a little surly this morning.

    Hey, Franklin411. Come out of hiding.

    You’ve been singing the praises of green shoots for many months now. Some of those shoots should have grown into bigassed slap in the face wonderments of economic activity by now. Name a few that clearly show some genuine improvement. Not the promise of improvement. Not the whiff of improvement on the run. Trace a few from start to finish and come up with some real improvements that benefit real people. Where the fuck are they? Employment? Housing? Retail Sales that don’t involve higher gas prices? Real Estate? CIT finance company? Anything? Don’t tell me about more green shoots. I want you to tell me where massive steaming piles of green shit are located.

  5. Bruce in Tn says:

    Unadjusted initial claims:

    667k.

    Automobile summer layoffs that are distorted this year are skewing the figures….

    Hmmmmm……

  6. Bruce in Tn says:

    Layoff Franklin will ya?

    I figure…got an IOU instead of a paycheck…or….got a pink slip for graduate assistant teaching slot…or…fewer students for fall classes and fewer GA’s needed to teach introductory courses…or…

  7. dead hobo says:

    Bruce in Tn Says:
    July 16th, 2009 at 9:11 am

    Layoff Franklin will ya?

    reply:
    ————-
    I forgot he’s wrapped up with California’s flavor of green shoots right now. Maybe he’ll get 100% comp time out of it (They’ll give him one day off for each day he teaches for free.)

  8. The Curmudgeon says:

    I’m feeling pretty surly today, too DH. Just keep in mind that the housing market is still cratering, even in the face of massive, and I mean massive amounts of newly-minted greenbacks (or their corollary, pixels on a computer screen) that represent nothing but a claim on future income, being thrown at it.

    $1.5 Trillion or so, roughly double what the Mortgage Bankers expect will be entire the residential real estate market this year. And still it craters. What happens when they have to shut down the presses?

    And here’s the irony: As soon as it appears all this stimulating is having an effect, the price of money goes up, pushing interest rates up, causing more pain in the housing market and the economy, in turn wilting the green shoots, causing the price of money to go down, rinse and repeat, ad infinitum.

    My favorite heretic Jew philosopher, Baruch Spinoza, said that under a monarchy, the state would own all the land. We’re heading there fast.

  9. efrltd says:

    The foreclosure map; the unemployment map…? Does anyone else notice the similarity to the political Blue State (Democratic Party); Red State (Republican Party) map from the 2000, 2004, 2008 election? Probably a complex link but it’s there–higher foreclosures, higher unemployment, votes Democrat.

  10. The Curmudgeon says:

    Another Green Chute:

    July 16 (Bloomberg) — MGIC Investment Corp., the largest U.S. mortgage insurer, will inject as much as $1 billion into an inactive subsidiary, allowing the company to continue to sell new coverage after eight straight unprofitable quarters.

    The subsidiary may take over the sale of policies as of Jan. 1 if it gains approval from state insurance regulators by then, Milwaukee-based MGIC said today in a statement. The insurer also announced its eighth straight unprofitable quarter, posting a $339.8 million loss as the worst housing slump since the Great Depression caused more defaults.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aj7YPjtax_Q8

  11. OT: (on tangent)

    How do y’all feel about the promise of 3-D Movies, tickets at an upcharge, of course– for the glasses–in the wake of this Economic environment?

  12. dead hobo says:

    The Curmudgeon Says:
    July 16th, 2009 at 9:25 am

    Another Green Chute:

    July 16 (Bloomberg) — MGIC Investment Corp., the largest U.S. mortgage insurer, will inject as much as $1 billion into an inactive subsidiary, allowing the company to continue to sell new coverage after eight straight unprofitable quarters.

    reply:
    ————
    You could be right. They appear to have invented perpetual motion.

  13. dead hobo says:

    efrltd Says:
    July 16th, 2009 at 9:24 am

    The foreclosure map; the unemployment map…? Does anyone else notice the similarity to the political Blue State (Democratic Party); Red State (Republican Party) map from the 2000, 2004, 2008 election? Probably a complex link but it’s there–higher foreclosures, higher unemployment, votes Democrat.

    reply:
    ————
    You may be jumping to a conclusion. Trailers are, technically, repossessed.

  14. Bruce in Tn says:

    I like it Hobo…could not keep from grinning..

  15. DeDude says:

    Duck, duck we are being machine-gunned with green shots

    (got to get that spel-check fixed)

  16. Bruce in Tn says:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Jobless-claims-drop-but-apf-3440402076.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=

    New jobless claims drop to 522,000, but mostly due to problems adjusting for auto shutdowns

    “A department analyst said the drop in new claims didn’t point to improvements in economic conditions. The second straight weekly decline reflected problems adjusting layoffs for temporary shutdowns at General Motors and Chrysler plants to retool for new models.

    The unadjusted figures actually showed that new claims rose by 86,389 last week, which would push the total to 667,534.

    Ohio reported one of the largest increases in new claims, up by 4,240 because of layoffs in both manufacturing and services.”

    One problem living in a Socialist paradise…sometimes inconvenient little things like reality get in the way of our self-induced bliss….

  17. franklin411 says:

    Relax, Hobo. I’m leaving for the East Coast today, including an overnight stay in Manhattan. My plans are 1. To do a scientific comparison of Gray’s Papaya vs Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog stand, and 2. To tour the ruins of a once great civilization called Wall Street.

    As to green shoots, how about this:
    The LA Times and the San Diego Union-Tribune recently reported that local housing prices have begun to climb. Foreclosure inventories have been worked through, and many local economists think the market here bottomed in June:

    Southern California median home sales price surges in June
    Southern California home prices may have finally hit bottom, with median values rising last month for the first significant increase in two years, new data show.

    Along with the 6.4% rise in prices from May, fewer than half of the sales were foreclosures — the first time that has happened in nine months.

    “I think we can now say with fair degree of confidence the pace of real home price declines has slowed dramatically,” said Los Angeles economist Christopher Thornberg, who was an early predictor of the housing bubble.

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-home-sales16-2009jul16,0,6992810.story
    http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/jul/15/bn15prices1263/

  18. dead hobo says:

    franklin411 Says:
    July 16th, 2009 at 9:44 am

    “I think we can now say with fair degree of confidence the pace of real home price declines has slowed dramatically,” said Los Angeles economist Christopher Thornberg, who was an early predictor of the housing bubble.

    reply:
    ———–
    Things getting bad at a slower rate = things getting worse, not better. Try again.

  19. leftback says:

    F411: You are missing the fact that the rise in SoCal home prices in May is due to the fact that the housing collapse is moving up the ladder to the more expensive homes, as higher end homeowners come under financial duress. Green chutes, baby !!

  20. Transor Z says:

    I bet Barry will post on this later, but what the heck is up with the 640k drop-off in continuing claims? With benefits extended to 75 weeks, what is up with that? These UI models are so sketchy.

  21. km4 says:

    Gee let’s see how US economy is looking into 2011
…
    CRE getting crushed

    RRE still tanking

    Consumer spending going down

    Wages deflating

    Unemployment continues to grow with U6 likely at 20%
 across USA
    Underemployment is growing faster than unemployment
    Way too much MSM and Obamanomics happy talk about more green shooties;)

  22. leftback says:

    @Transor: The Unemployment numbers are a bit funky in the summer. Companies typically don’t lay off in the midsummer months as the HR peep are all at the beach, lake etc..

    If you want to feel happier, think of lifeguards, summer interns, Dairy Queen stands …. and buy some Treasuries.
    Better still watch Gary Shilling’s video and then buy some Treasuries.

  23. Onlooker from Troy says:

    LB

    Yep, that rise in median sales price head fake has been identified and warned about for months by the likes of CR and Dr. Housing Bubble. But the unquestioning, lack-of-critical-thinking is falling for it just as expected. And then the top end will finally start crumbling, weighing the bottom end down even more in the process, and finally dragging down median prices yet againg, and that bunch won’t know what hit them.

  24. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    Well, there were 675k new claims, before the numbers were massaged. Period.

    Can we just be friends whether or not we are working? Franklin is going to New York…would anybody like a good NY deli/pastrami?

  25. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Jobless-claims-drop-but-apf-3440402076.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=

    “The unadjusted figures for last week actually showed that new claims rose by 86,389 last week, which would push the total to 667,534.

    The department’s seasonal adjustment process expected a large increase in claims from auto workers and some other manufacturers, the analyst said. Since that didn’t happen, seasonally-adjusted claims fell.”

    Simply the new math…1 and 1+seasonal variations= Paradise

  26. leftback says:

    @Onlooker: Exactly. Now that CIT is belly up, there is no more funding for Donny and Debbie Donut Franchisee, which means they can’t roll over their debt and they will have to declare BK and F/C on their $1M McMansion.
    Of course they can sell it to a summer intern at GS who can use his bonus as a down payment. Meanwhile their 13 workers are all out of a job, and it won’t be long before they F/C on their “extended” Capes. It’s all connected.

    It’s not a pretty picture out there in the real world, Franky.

  27. manhattanguy says:

    Oil will see a new high today. Holding my longs for a ride.

  28. Mannwich says:

    @lb: You are indeed correct about slowing layoffs in the summer. Everything slows down in the summer, due to vacations, including layoffs. I expect them to resume full throttle come Sept. Most people I know are still very worried about losing their jobs.

  29. Onlooker from Troy says:

    Transor Z

    Continuing claims only include the normal UE limit of 26 weeks. So those on extended benefits aren’t captured in that stat. Thus making it a decreasingly useful stat as this rolls on.

  30. thetanman says:

    efrltd,

    Its not that complex. Staunchly dem states tend to be the bubble states. The states that have voted 60% dem leading up to the bubble popping have been the epicenters of financial fraud and greed. The lovely duo of New York and Cali. But its the reps fault!

    hobo,

    With houses so easy to get we had almost no one living in trailers. They’re moving into them now though!

  31. leftback says:

    Manny, a certain corporation located in Fraudfield, Con Etiquette is likely to have more layoffs in September.

  32. ben22 says:

    I know you all know this already but re: job losses in the summer, there is that other thing going on that doesn’t show up in the claims number which are things like the voluntary/mandatory 10 days off without pay this summer for all DD employees in Delaware.

    Hours are being cut as is overtime. That doesn’t equal unemployment, but it certainly crimps spending, not to mention impacts social mood.

    As an aside, anyone in on the MOS trade? I know a lot of people here were using that stock earlier in the year. Big bounce today. I missed it.

  33. ben22 says:

    Most people I know are still very worried about losing their jobs.

    I can tell you that the 42 clients I have left working at BAC are. They are all scared, even the one’s working on the ML transition team, what will they do when it’s done?

  34. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    Hey Ben,

    Howsit that Rhode Island has such ungodly unemployment numbers compared with the rest of the New England region?

    Just wondering…

  35. Mannwich says:

    @lb: Not surprising. From what I can gather, many companies are in wait and see mode and will cut more in the fall if the outlook doesn’t improve. The snowball is rolling down the hill and getting bigger, albeit at a slower pace.

  36. Mannwich says:

    @ben22: I made some dough off of MOS earlier this year but haven’t gotten back in. Wish I had now. Was there any news or is it just popping on nothing like many stocks nowadays?

  37. Mannwich says:

    @ben22: I answered my own question on MOS. Takeover rumors, I see.

  38. ben22 says:

    Bruce,

    No clue on my end on that one. I can tell you a lot about PA, DE and NJ but Rhode Island I’m not so familiar with. Maybe less jobs in Boston for people living there is one guess. Maybe lefty knows, he’s closer.

    Glancing at this list might explain some of it, BAC is one of the top employers there, perhaps there was a lot of job overlap with offices there after they got Countrywide and ML so there could have been some serious layoffs as a result. Couple that with such a small state and even if the numbers weren’t huge relative to other states it gives you a high unemployment rate. Citizens is also up there as are GD and RTN which I know have both had pretty sizeable layoffs.

    http://www.dlt.ri.gov/lmi/es202/largestemp.htm

  39. ben22 says:

    @manny,

    I remember you having MOS, yeah, it’s takeover news pushing that up today. Stock has had an awesome year so far, up over 44%. Won’t want to be holding stuff like this going into the late stages of Q3 though.

  40. Onlooker from Troy says:

    Manny

    Re: MOS

    There are rumors about a $25 billion all cash offer for Mosaic, from the Brazilian company VALE. But who knows really, with this bipolar market it doesn’t take much to swing back and forth, especially with this stock.

  41. ben22 says:

    FXP trade in the money early today by about 1k despite the BTE China GDP number. A peak under the hood of that last night gives the same conclusion as all these earnings “beats”, I think a storm is brewing in China.

  42. ben22 says:

    Onlooker,

    No doubt, if I was in MOS I’d sell or at least take all my profits off. I always think back to the Dow Chemical deal last year that blew up on them, I would think a lof of CEO’s have to be a little gun shy about making big deals in such an uncertain environment.

  43. Transor Z says:

    @ben:

    It’s unclear. RI lost jobs across all sectors, even healthcare:
    http://www.projo.com/news/content/RI_JOBLESS_RATE_19_06-19-09_P3EP6LA_v17.3e95f94.html

    http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=101389487&ft=1&f=1006

    I don’t think it’s Boston. Massachusetts is doing better than most states — including state budget issues. And Boston is all about healthcare and education, which has also helped. Although there are some knock-down drag-0ut state budget fights going on, MA legislated a rainy day fund a few years ago so we’ve had a cushion.

    Bear in mind that the RI unemployment rate was already over 8% in August 2008.

    There’s some speculation that the RI corporate tax rate factors in,

  44. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    Speaking of foreclosures…

    http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_30/b4140022152923.htm

    The Time Bomb in Corporate Debt

    “No surprise here: As the recession grinds on, more companies are falling behind on their debt payments. The default rate tops 11%, up from 2.4% last year—and could peak at 12.8% by the end of the year, the highest ever, according to credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service (MCO). But what’s worrying economists more is that the rate could remain stubbornly high for quite a while. “Be prepared for a multi-year period of high defaults,” says Louise Purtle, a senior analyst at CreditSights. “We’re going to see peaks like a mountain range.”

  45. Mannwich says:

    @Bruce: I may be wrong, and no offense to Rhode Islanders (it’s a very nice state), but I think it’s always lagged behind the Boston and NYC metro areas business-wise largely because it competes for business with those two places and often loses out (much like Hartford and New Haven). Most businesses seem to prefer to be clustered in/around/near NYC and Boston, so in that regard Rhody tends to be the red-headed step-child of New England.

  46. ben22 says:

    Transor,

    thanks for the links. Like I said, not really familiar with RI, just a few guesses without really looking into it. I would imagine in an environment like this that corp taxes would play a role.

    Speaking of debt payments, I’m sure a lot of people don’t follow things like HY Bond mutual funds but they are, for the most part, up huge this year. I’d be worried if I were there, it seems certain that a wave of defaluts will hit junk bonds in the coming quarters.

    One other note, on my favorite subject, Dimon said today they probably won’t make money on credit cards in 2010. Credit deflation folks.

  47. MRegan says:

    AMERICAS PETROGAS INC BOE.v

    This one might be an unusual way to play the current game in the phosphate area. If you go the company’s website there is a presentation that has information on its project in Bayovar, Piura, Peru. If you look at the plats of their concessions you will see CVRD in adjacent lots- that’s Vale. Eventually, it will make strategic sense for CVRD to acquire that operation from Americas Petrogas (it is a likely proposition that API obtained the very best concession in that area). Bayovar-Paita-Pacific Rim (asian agricultural demand).

  48. EricTyson says:

    RealtyTrac is really a questionable data source:

    http://www.erictyson.com/articles/20090104

    Also, the headline here is misleading – foreclosures were not up 9 percent…the total number of filings they counted (which includes multiple filings on many properties) was up 9 percent but as detailed in my article, they’ve got data problems.

  49. ben22 says:

    MRegan,

    That’s pretty interesting, thank you. Late last year when I really thought we would have inflation, before flipping to the dark side, I was in love with everything ag. I owned a lot of DBA but sold it all at $28.

  50. Transor Z says:

    Providence actually did an amazing job reinventing itself over the last 20 years or so. Businesses like the financials already mentioned and major insurers like AMICA have had major presences there. CVS Caremark also has its corp HQ in RI. So they have some good things going for them.

    Newport is a huge tourism draw. I’m not sure how the relatively new casinos in Lincoln are doing, but I’m sure they get trounced by Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun in CT.

    Also, I streamed some of the Paulson hearing. He’s a pretty tough SOB. The issued have narrowed to this:

    1. Paulson admits to strong-arming Lewis

    2. Paulson claims invoking the MAC clause would have been a “colossal error in judgment” on the part of Lewis and the BAC board, justifying removal — and therefore justifying reminding Lewis in a heavy-handed manner of the scope of the “Fed’s regulatory authority.” He bases his assessment in the legal opinions of Treasury attorneys that there was no legal basis for invoking the MAC clause and on projected catastrophic results to both BAC and ML in the event of delay caused by putting the merger to another vote.

    3. Conspicuously missing from the record is any expression of awareness/concern on Paulson’s part of possible securities fraud by Lewis and the board for failing to do due diligence in the ML merger and/or failing to disclose. Paulson ain’t saying much on this point.

  51. Transor Z says:

    Shoot! I posted another response to you Ben but unthinkingly used the word c*sino in reference to RI’s new “wagering facilities” in Lincoln.

  52. Transor Z says:

    Providence actually did an amazing job reinventing itself over the last 20 years or so. Businesses like the financials already mentioned and major insurers like AMICA have had major presences there. CVS Caremark also has its corp HQ in RI. So they have some good things going for them.

    Newport is a huge tourism draw. I’m not sure how the relatively new c*sin*s in Lincoln are doing, but I’m sure they get trounced by F*xwoods and M*hegan Sun in CT.

    Also, I streamed some of the Paulson hearing. He’s a pretty tough SOB. The issued have narrowed to this:

    1. Paulson admits to strong-arming Lewis

    2. Paulson claims invoking the MAC clause would have been a “colossal error in judgment” on the part of Lewis and the BAC board, justifying removal — and therefore justifying reminding Lewis in a heavy-handed manner of the scope of the “Fed’s regulatory authority.” He bases his assessment in the legal opinions of Treasury attorneys that there was no legal basis for invoking the MAC clause and on projected catastrophic results to both BAC and ML in the event of delay caused by putting the merger to another vote.

    3. Conspicuously missing from the record is any expression of awareness/concern on Paulson’s part of possible securities fraud by Lewis and the board for failing to do due diligence in the ML merger and/or failing to disclose. Paulson ain’t saying much on this point.

  53. ben22,

    don’t be so quick to write-off Phosphate–>Ag production to the ‘Inflation Trade’-Thesis..

    while that Thesis has, certainly, pumped a lot of Air into various positions, at the EOD, peeps like to eat..

  54. Onlooker from Troy says:

    ben22

    re: HY junk bonds

    From this article willid linked to above: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aJ19uuXkCD9c

    “I just don’t see the proper risk reward here,” he said on a conference call for clients July 7. “The bet that you’re making in high yield right now is that the consensus forecast for defaults is actually going to come in lower than anticipated.”

  55. Marcus Aurelius says:

    I’d say the hardest hit areas are a reflection of population, not politics. If we want to look at the role of politics, the policy/political analysis we’ve already gone over here – ad infinitum – would be a better place to start. I’m not surprised that we’re still axle deep in the swamp, and I don’t know that we’ll get the car (the economy) out. I know who was driving when the wheels left the road. The only question left is when we capitulate and give the car up as a total loss and start walking.

  56. Marcus Aurelius says:

    I’d say the hardest hit areas are a reflection of population, not politics. If we want to look at the role of politics, the policy/political analysis we’ve already gone over here – ad infinitum – would be a better place to start. I’m not surprised that we’re still axle deep in the swamp, and I don’t know that we’ll get the car (the economy) out. I know who was driving when the wheels left the road. The only question left is when we capitulate and give the car up as a total loss and start walking.

  57. Thor says:

    efrltd and the tan – um . . . how are you accounting for Arizona, Nevada, and Florida in your red state/ blue state argument?

  58. ben22 says:

    @MEH,

    point taken, Jim Rogers agrees that’s for sure.

    @Onlooker,

    Re: HY Bonds,

    That’s sort of my point above, if you were in, take your gains, or you are more of an asset allocator and you are still trying to do buy and hold, I’d reduce my position way down in HY bonds at this point. You’ve got mostly everything going against your ability to continue to make good returns moving forward in that space imo.

  59. cvienne says:

    @Thor efrltd tan

    I think I’m with Thor on this…I can’t see the use into spinning the foreclosure issue into a red state/blue state argument…

  60. I-Man says:

    Funny… this conversation stream.

    Guess what I have on my radar for trades I want to open?

    Short JNK

    Long FXP

    Interesting…

  61. leftback says:

    LB tinkered with some HY bond funds from January onwards but that ended in May. Still have some IG funds.

    Little Rhody had started to become a second home destination and had benefitted from some housing market frothiness. Took a vacation around Newport at the time of the Second Gilded Age and you could tell they were thinking about how much gold leaf to put on the faucets. It’s dead in the water now.

  62. cvienne says:

    @LB

    Rhody lives in it’s own world…

    It’s still run by the mob to a large degree…

  63. MRegan says:

    ben22 -

    you’re welcome, of course. WRT inflation as an investment criterion in that sector, I am not smart enough to know. I would note that the current trend is downward in pricing for phosphates/potassium. I think operators like Vale are thinking about long-term demand trends. China has curious problems re logistics and internal supplying of markets. Bottlenecks are a problem, so massive importation of food to balance their caloric demand with local production capacity may be seen as a bad option and they may opt to juice local yields. Fertilizers don’t spoil so to speak. Any way, just random thoughts and way off topic. Sorry for the detour.
    Lastly, my humble take on the MOS jump is that it represents a selling opportunity.

  64. I-Man says:

    True, LB.

    But I would still be long Providence, short NYC. :)

  65. dead hobo says:

    EricTyson,

    Excerpt from linked article:

    RealtyTrac® (realtytrac.com), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its Midyear 2009 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows a total of 1,905,723 foreclosure filings — default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions — were reported on 1,528,364 U.S. properties in the first six months of 2009, a 9 percent increase in total properties from the previous six months and a nearly 15 percent increase in total properties from the first six months of 2008. The report also shows that 1.19 percent of all U.S. housing units (one in 84) received at least one foreclosure filing in the first half of the year.

    —————————————————-
    This article appears to make the distinction between properties and filings. How do you get a green shoot out of it?

  66. cvienne says:

    Off topic…but I need someone smarter than me to answer a question here:

    Note: that INSTANTLY qualifies everyone…

    Is the dollar going to COMPLETE a 5 wave down (since March) and thereby FINALLY get this whole thing overwith…I’m tired of it dicking around here on support when I could could be off to the beach!

    See here’s how it works…Dollar collapses and prints it’s 5 wave down…I can pile into Treasuries with Schilling…and go spend a couple of days at the beach…

    Dollar craps around here, and I have to stay close to home and weed my garden, put up fenceposts, mulch, and paint the bathroom…

  67. EricTyson says:

    Hobo – I did NOT say it was a green shoot – have you been drinking again this morning?!

    I made reference to the HEADLINE being misleading in saying foreclosures were up 9%.

  68. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    Barry,

    Have you ever peered into the guts of your blog? This morning, early, I posted a note about the distortions of the unemployment numbers today…30 minutes later it hadn’t posted…so when I got to the salt mine, I posted something similar as I thought the point was valid.

    Now 4 hours later the original post shows up…this happens occassionally at TBP and I am thinking the digestive system at TBP is on the fritz…perhaps it needs a colonoscopy to see why its digestive mechanism is so screwed up…I suspect I am not the only one who has seen this event before…maybe there is a blockage…maybe some Pepto….maybe an enema…eh?

  69. MRegan says:

    Re the topic of this thread, more news regarding Guaranty Bank in Texas:

    http://www.dentonrc.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/DN-Guaranty_16bus.ART0.State.Edition1.3cf5e78.html#

    This is more than a canary in the coal mine wrt RRE in Texas. As an aside, I have a cousin who does production work on reality shows, the flip this effin’ house kind of stuff, well, she had been in Austin a few months ago doing the prelim setup for an RE type show to be filmed down there and it all went kablooey when the principal subject of the show, some freakin’ shyster, got hisself all indicted and what not! I took that news as a canary, a big g-d canary with hairy knuckles and a pinky ring screaming ‘let me outta dis cage! I don’t wanna go back down there!’

  70. dead hobo says:

    cvienne Says:
    July 16th, 2009 at 12:24 pm

    Is the dollar going to COMPLETE a 5 wave down (since March) and thereby FINALLY get this whole thing overwith…I’m tired of it dicking around here on support when I could could be off to the beach!

    reply:
    —————–
    The outcome is certain.

  71. MRegan says:

    @cvienne:

    “Dollar craps around here, and I have to stay close to home and weed my garden, put up fenceposts, mulch, and paint the bathroom…”

    Take a laptop to the beach and hire Jesco White or one of his relatives to do those odd jobs- I hear they aren’t too busy lately.

    http://www.boingboing.net/2009/07/14/richard-metzger-inte.html

  72. leftback says:

    “Is the dollar going to COMPLETE a 5 wave down (since March) and thereby FINALLY get this whole thing overwith…I’m tired of it dicking around here on support when I could could be off to the beach!”

    No – it is going to dick around endlessly and waste your time of course… now go to the beach !!

  73. jc says:

    WASHINGTON, July 16 (Reuters) – The Obama administration is looking at ways for homeowners who have defaulted on their mortgages to remain in their homes as renters, senior administration officials said on Thursday.

    U.S. Treasury assistant secretary Herbert Allison told the Senate Banking Committee that the idea was one of several options under consideration for homeowners whose mortgages can’t be made affordable through modification.

    “It’s certainly an idea we are thinking about,” Allison said.

    William Apgar, senior mortgage finance adviser for the Department of Housing and Urban Development, said the administration was exploring a “wide range of options along these lines.” However, he said a key obstacle is that homeowners who have gone through the anguish of delinquency and foreclosure often don’t want to stay in the property as renters. (Reporting by David Lawder; Writing by David Lawder and Tim Ahmann; Editing by James Dalgleish)

  74. Onlooker from Troy says:

    jc

    ANYTHING to avoid having bondholders and the banks realize losses. No matter the moral hazard or the social unrest that comes about as a result.

    And, it won’t work.

  75. Onlooker from Troy says:

    Re: Hawaii. Ha! That’s one of those places where the RE investors have been very arrogant and hubristic about the prospects. You know the line: They’re not making anymore land here in paradise, etc.

    It’s going to hit them like a brick from behind.

  76. cvienne says:

    @jc

    Kinda makes me pissed off…

    I paid cash for the house last December…Why the hell didn’t I just take a mortgage out on it, NEVER pay an installment…save the cash, now I could rent…

    …and I could call Obama when the toilet gets leaky…

  77. Thor says:

    MRegan – very interesting article – especially considering my mortgage is with Gauranty Bank

  78. Onlooker from Troy says:

    cvienne

    Ha! It does bring up the question of who’s going to be the owner and what exactly is the relationship? Will there be a landlord? Or will the “renter” still have the responsibilities of ownership without the benefits?

    I just can’t see anything good coming from this. It’s just more kick the can policy.

  79. manhattanguy says:

    As I said Oil made a new high today, but because of Aug expiration it is all over the map. I lightened up on my long positions. But I wouldn’t short Oil right now until early next week. Added more to my $COF shorts. GS is doing a fine job propping up the stock for opex Friday.

  80. Thor says:

    JC – I’ve heard that at least here in CA – many of the banks are not fully repossessing homes. The banks have figured out that it’s cheaper and safer for them to allow former home owners to remain in their homes because so many of the empty home are being broken into and vandalized. Letting people stay keeps the home up and saves them money on maintenance.

  81. uno says:

    Re: Rhode Island. Lived there for about 5 years once upon a time. Mannwich and cvienne have nailed it pretty well. They have little to no industrial base to draw on that isn’t tied to gov’mint or the Mob up in Providence, which apparently has not yet filed a DBA under that name.

    When the saving grace, new-new tech was GTECH, it became clear that they were still fresh out of truly good business ideas.

    Splendid area to live for a while, though. Beautiful.

  82. jc says:

    “one of several options under consideration for homeowners whose mortgages can’t be made affordable through modification.”

    It sounds like the loan mods won’t even touch the -25% underwater homeowners now and the banks already have an inventory of about 1M foreclosures, half that they own, they must be holding them and lobbying Uncle Sugar to pay them “fair prices” to become landlord to the dispossessed homeowners from whom Uncle Sugar will collect a “fair rent”. So the banks get a windfall with US paying above market prices to collect below market rents from people who are mad at the world and eventually US will end up with an awful lot of trashed homes. The really , really sad thing is that it’s probably the best available solution. I’m sure this is why the banks keep holding their invisible inventories and not selling them.

    1 million foreclosures now with 50B of available TARP bucks, so a gift of $50K per abandoned home to the big banks.

  83. Onlooker from Troy says:

    Thor

    Indeed. It’s just more evidence of the banks not dealing with the reality of the situation and hoping it will somehow all just get better, helped along by their enablers at Treasury and the Fed, of course.

    Zombie economy.

  84. jc says:

    What about the investment properties, those foreclosures will be enough to crater the markets in FL,NV and SC , right? Maybe enough in CA and AZ too but as long as Uncle Sam is paying a “fair” price to the banks for their foreclosed properties the banks are insulated from cratered housing values.

  85. Thor says:

    I’m going to Vegas this weekend to see the in-laws, they live in Henderson. I’ll let everyone know what my impressions are from the last time I was there (Christmas).

  86. super_trooper says:

    @Bruce N Tennessee, seen similar things, one post was “made in the future”, kept staying at the bottom as more posts were made with a future posting date. Maybe we are starting to see the first indication of artificial blog intelligence.

  87. leftback says:

    Onlooker @ 12.49:

    Arrogance and hubris almost always earns a brick in the end…. unless you are GS.

  88. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    @Super:

    I think it is simpler than that..I think blogs have genders…and Barry’s blog must be feminine and operates when it wants to…

    …If I see Karen around I will get her opinion on my theory…..

  89. Transor Z says:

    LB said: …. and buy some Treasuries. Better still watch Gary Shilling’s video and then buy some Treasuries.

    Lefty, I’d love to play with you guys in the sandbox but we’re still over-levered Americans. :(

    I’m still waiting for that very special $10 million personal injury client to walk in the door.

    Speaking of which, have any of you on here ever been hurt by ANYONE? :)

  90. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/latest/story/0,4574,342119,00.html?

    Harley-Davidson slashes 1,000 jobs as profits skid

    WASHINGTON – US motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson said on Thursday it would cut 1,000 more jobs this year after a devastating second quarter as the global recession slashed sales.

    The Milwaukee, Wisconsin-based company announced the new job cuts along with a 91 per cent plunge in second quarter net profit from a year earlier.

    …91% drop in motorcycle profits… perhaps TARP money for “Hogs”…worked for GM….and we’re going start paying mortgage payments….I could see it. Just another brick in the wall…

  91. I-Man says:

    I get hurt by karen all the time…

    Should I sue her?

  92. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    Tranzor:

    I had a girlfriend once who only washed her hair on Friday and Saturday nights…does that count?

  93. Pushkar says:

    I was reading CNBC.com thsi afternoon and saw another joke on what I call are “Less Bad News=Good News” on CNBC. The headline thsi afternoon is “Homebuilders: Sales Improving But the Market Remains Weak”. It is followed by “US homebuilder sentiment in July jumped to its highest level in 10 months as improved sales conditions boosted confidence in the market for new single-family homes, an industry group said on ThursdayThe National Association of Home Builders said its preliminary NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index was 17 in July, up from 15 in June.”

    What the article tries to hide in the detail is “Readings below 50 in the index, which was launched in January 1985, indicate more builders view market conditions as poor than favorable. ”

    So, why do we give a rat’s ass if the reading is at 1/3 of the level required to just mainatian mimimum confidence?

  94. Thor says:

    Tranzor – hrmmmm, so if I fling myself down the stairs here at work and hire you . . . :P

  95. Andy T says:

    SP500 looks like a little triangle forming here near the top….maybe we get a leg up to 938 and then crap out….This rally hasn’t even hesitated at any fibbo’s, buy maybe the 78.6% will provide some resistance at 938. What a short covering rally….no pull backs….no chance to get out of shorts…just unrelenting short covering….love it.

  96. Transor Z says:

    Bruce, I think you should call my office right away.

    If you had a particular susceptibility to rejection and that young woman, knowing that, deliberately set out to deceive, humiliate, and devastate you emotionally — I put the settlement value of your well-lipsticked pig of a case at a couple grand believe you are entitled to justice.

  97. Transor Z says:

    Thor:

    Noooooo!!!! Don’t do it, Thor!

    Because that’s Workers Comp short money that would be wrong.