Comments on: The Great Recession is Over! Long Live the Ordinary Recession . . .

By: Green Shoots? Not Retail Sales or Unemployment Claims | The Big Picture

Green Shoots? Not Retail Sales or Unemployment Claims | The Big Picture — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 13:45:35 +0000

[...] Two weeks ago, I noted that the Great Recession was over, but we still had to deal with the ongoing “ordinary” recession. [...]

By: 10 Links (Friday Edition) | The Big Picture

10 Links (Friday Edition) | The Big Picture — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 16:40:23 +0000

[...] The Great Recession is Over! Long Live the Ordinary Recession . . . (The Big Picture) I try not to do this, but damn, that was a good [...]

By: » Blog Archive Illinois Mortgage Rates and News - Illinois Mortgage Rates and News

Sat, 01 Aug 2009 13:25:17 +0000

[...] few will feel like celebrating. Barry Ritholtz said the same thing in a more eloquent headline, The Great Recession is Over! Long Live the Ordinary Recession . . . There is no doubt that the news is getting better and it looks like we dodged a bullet and this [...]

By: Falling Imports versus Falling Exports (GDP = -2.38%) | The Big Picture

Falling Imports versus Falling Exports (GDP = -2.38%) | The Big Picture — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 15:33:11 +0000

[...] I noted earlier that the oddity of imports versus exports calculation would produce a positive contribution to GDP. Let’s look at the details of this, and find a way to understand what this means. [...]

By: Pat G.

Pat G. — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 14:55:31 +0000

News Flash!! 4 consecutive quarters of negative GDP = a depression. BR, be the first to call it what it is.

By: matt

matt — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 14:00:41 +0000

@BR: “lending standards are tight”

normal lending standards are now called “tight.” always a good thing to remember

By: Mike in Nola

Mike in Nola — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 13:48:36 +0000

FWIW, here’s a primer on the GDP . I’d like to see the actually calculations, though.

davossherman:

I think using some equivalent rent payment is needed if you are using rents at all, since otherwise, you could have the GDP skyrocketing if everyone decides to rent each others’ houses when nothing has actually changed except an exchange of cash. My questions would be with how do they determine the figures to be used, considering that reports are that rents are decreasing, although the decrease is sometimes hidden as “6 months free rent” which I’ve seen on brochures put on windshields at nearby grocery.

Also, it appears that government spending can juice the figures. If the figure is that easily manipulated, does it really mean anything? It would be like changing the temperature reading on a patient’s thermometer w/o the patients temp actually changing and then pronouncing him cured. I know this is an oversimplification and there are probably balancing entries, but what affect does QE have on them?

But, I slept a bit late and haven’t had enough coffee yet to think clearly.

By: Transor Z

Transor Z — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 13:38:32 +0000

Agree that, given the relativistc aspect of calling an end to a recession (if a level stretch in a trough qualifies) the label is just another layer of obfuscation. Still, recall that a main prong of the Fed’s congressional mandate is to maximize employment. That makes me curious about calling an end to this one. For those who insist that U is a lagging indicator in ALL cases my suggestion is get ready to coin a new term — Recess. Defined as the period between contraction and recovery. So we’ll go into the Great Recess (which has the nice dual meaning of crevice and relaxing break) for a while, during which we can all enjoy our funemployment.

By: davossherman@gmail.com

davossherman@gmail.com — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 13:33:43 +0000

I’d seriously like to get behind the GDP numbers. . As an ex-airline pilot, if I look at what you wrote and I look at GDP like instruments on a cockpit I’d have to question the integrity of the GDP gauge.

I blog for Chris Martenson, his Fuzzy Numbers video http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse/chapter-16-fuzzy-numbers demonstrated to me how GDP was off by about 40%.

That is a huge number. Own a home? Yes, then the government adds your rent payment to GDP – even though you don’t pay rent.

I think once the bloggers at large get behind the numbers they used to create GDP we are going to see number more in-line with the 7 other gauges.

Take care!

By: Lilguy

Lilguy — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 13:27:26 +0000

Vigna, WSJ, ““The elements that will drive a recovery — rising wages, consumer demand, production and sales — haven’t appeared.”

This is PRECISELY my problem with the stock market’s current over-the-top enthusiasm. I simply can’t see what economic force–technology, consumer expenditures, capital investment, etc.–is going to lead us out of this economic hole we’ve dug for ourselves. Sure, the banks are better than they were, but (a) they were nearly dead 6-9 months ago, and (b) they do little for the economy unless there is demand for their services (otherwise, they’re just trading on their own account).

Does anyone have a thought on what elements will help us move back toward sustained (even sustainable) growth??