Then, when the lender tries to liquidate the unit, they are selling into a poor market. It is common for a lender to charge off more than half of the original amount that was financed on these things. Most repos tend to happen at the beginning of the loan, so I think that the delinquency rates are improving simply because there are so few new loans being made and the few lenders that are still standing are being VERY careful who they lend to. Even with all that, I think that it would be very difficult to make money lending on boats and RV’s if you have to contend with a 2% repo rate.

re: “There’s a meme going around that there has been “over-employment” and that layoffs just amount to taking out the garbage/dead wood. I think maybe people should re-think that position. . . A little bit of “there but for the Grace of God” might be in order these days.”

As you’ve noted, no doubt many fit into that category and recessions serve a purpose of shaking out inefficiencies, complacency and malinvestment. But those who go through life with the kind of arrogant attitude that those people in your statement reflect really need a dose of reality and a piece of humble pie. Life tends to serve it to you eventually, especially if your arrogance grows.

I better get myself on cvienne’s fitness program asap.

I’m reminded of the comedian Gallagher’s (the watermelon guy) old joke from the 80s:

“I’m convinced that 20% of all Americans are critically stupid. The problem is that the unemployment rate is only 10%.”

If you re-trace the hiring mentality, though, profitable times (in the private sector, anyway) always mean expansion — “Let’s get some more bodies in here to increase capacity.” It’s also, “Let’s get Mary some help in her unit now that we’ve got some money. They’ve been working their asses off in there and we want to keep her and her team.”

Nobody sets out to hire schmucks. It’s a little circular to say people were making too much for doing too little in a period of deflation, isn’t it?

True in a way. Life is not fair. Sometimes the dead wood doesn’t get taken out because of legal issues and/or a variety of local factors, but someone else takes the bullet. Over-employment is rediscovered in every recession.

There has unfortunately been “over-payment” as well as “over-employment”. Too many people were making too much money for not doing much, or for not being very good at it, or for doing stuff we don’t need, or because stuff gets done by computers or machines, a trend that has been in place since the Industrial Revolution. I have never understood why Americans work so many hours or weeks of the year. Unhealthy, and stifles creativity.

Maybe it’s a kind of “trickle-down moral hazard”?

I’m pretty laid-back and mild in most settings, including new client phone calls. So when new bk clients start dropping F-bombs in initial phone calls, I literally straighten up in my chair. Contrast with new divorce clients dropping F-bombs — which I’m not sure I even react to any more.

There’s a meme going around that there has been “over-employment” and that layoffs just amount to taking out the garbage/dead wood. I think maybe people should re-think that position. . . A little bit of “there but for the Grace of God” might be in order these days.

at it again, are you? what straw man did you see in barry’s banker data? it seemed quite straightforward – loans are getting worse. the data are from 1Q, so one could quibble they are dated, or, stealing a page from your playbook, one could point out the improvement in boat loans as a green shoot. barry sort of stole your thunder on that one. as someone who is calling for continued elevated umemployment and a tepid recovery, none of this should surprise you.

that’s an interesting anecdote. something similiar came up just last night –paraphrasing, “there are going to be quite a few BoBo -s –who, now, think they’ve “lucked out”/”have it made”/”are fortunate”, that are going to be pauperized by the next turn of the Worm..”

Though, in comparison, I’d say the ones that are Angry, now, are going to be better off. The BoBo -s, we were speaking of, are more likely to turn into “Cat Ladies”..