Comments on: Housing vs GDP 1945-2009

By: Housing vs GDP 1945-2009 | The Big Picture | Denmark today

Housing vs GDP 1945-2009 | The Big Picture | Denmark today — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 12:37:06 +0000

[...] Go here to see the original: Housing vs GDP 1945-2009 | The Big Picture [...]

By: donna

donna — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 15:21:52 +0000

Yeah, when inflation rates were artificially being kept low, you could track the bubbles in first the stock market, then housing, then back to the market, then back to housing. Kind of ridiculous to keep saying inflation was so low when nobody could afford a home without a ridiculously stupidly configured mortgage.

I think the real problem was the way the Fed was figuring official inflation, using the equivalent rent. Perhaps if they hadn’t kept rates artificially low, we all would have saved more and spent less, and speculated less in houses and the markets, if we could have earned a decent return on our money elsewhere.

We need to get our economy back to fundamentals and investing instead of gambling.

By: Wednesday links: simple signals Abnormal Returns

Wednesday links: simple signals Abnormal Returns — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 15:01:43 +0000

[...] When GDP and housing diverged. (Big Picture) [...]

By: rmasand

rmasand — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 14:25:50 +0000

The other fact that struck me was that we had a GDP of barely over one trillion in 1972 and are up to about 15 trillion now. That’s a compounded growth rate of somewhere between 7% and 8 % – for all of 37 years. Seems awfully high. Else there’s some serious cooking going on.

By: My Mind on Mortgages » Housing & GDP

My Mind on Mortgages » Housing & GDP — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 13:58:35 +0000

[...] “The Big Picture” posted this chart today showing housing prices & GDP growth in the US from 1945-2009. In the late 1990s housing began to pull away from GDP. Retrospectively this was the first clue that the levels of house price appreciation were unsustainable. [...]

By: tradeking13

tradeking13 — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 13:30:09 +0000

Denmark actually has a sensible mortgage market

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_mortgage_market

According to the graph above, it looks like house values are still 20% overvalued.

By: Transor Z

Transor Z — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 13:27:50 +0000

LOL

I was looking at the chart on my Blackberry earlier. The ratio values looked like columns to me.

Nevermind.

By: E

Wed, 08 Jul 2009 13:08:34 +0000

Barry, I don’t believe I’ve seen you mention the 1997 era tax code changes as a possible contributor to the bubble.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/business/19tax.html

By: Transor Z

Transor Z — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 12:49:55 +0000

@Barry: Yes, the sad difference being that the US economy was able to grow into the property values back then.

Michael M might be interested to know that the postwar era also saw a boom in public housing projects, the so-called “superblock” projects.

By: cvienne

cvienne — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 12:28:07 +0000

@Michael M

Maybe Denmark actually required someone to have a job and put a down payment on a home before purchasing…

Those wacky Danes!