Airtime: Wed. Jul. 29 2009 | 11:05 AM ET
Does Wall Street have it right or are they being too optimistic about the impending recovery? Erik Ristuben, of Russell Investments, and Peter Boockvar, of Miller Tabak, share their insight.
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Retail Sales in Jan rose .4% headline m/o/m, .7% ex auto's, .6% ex auto's and gasoline and .7% at the core. The headline figure was less than expected while the rest were slightly better. But, with respect to non headline sales, because Dec figures were revised lower, taking the two months together were about in line with forecasts overall. Sales rose in electronics, building materials, food/beverages, clothing, sporting goods, dept stores and restaurant/bars and fell interestingly for online retailers, health/personal care, furniture and motor vehicle/parts. Bottom line, headline sales were below expectations due to the greater than expected fall m/o/m...
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July 29th, 2009 at 5:02 pm
150,000,000 workers in 2007.
27,000,000 less today.
That is 18% unemployment.
No ATM’s vis a vis the HELOCs.
Housing: 19,000,000 vacant homes, 4-5 million on the market in addition to that.
1.5 trillion more coming in residential Alt-A’s and Option Arms, in addition to a 3.5++++ trillion dollar CRE collapse.
Housing bottom? You want to see a bottom just wait another year. By the way, who is going to buy the homes built for the subprime borrower, for the Alt-A borrower, for the Option Arm borrower, for the poor folks who declared BK or sent their keys jingling in or wound up in foreclosure as a result of this.
We are printing money to pay for the deficit which we can’t borrow vis a vis the selling of bonds.
Look, I won’t spout off the moron thing, Jim Rogers said it nicely: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZykaBfQMbt8&feature=player_embedded listen to these guys and gals and you will go BROKE!
80 trillion in debt, a 2 trillion dollar deficit and not enough bond buyers – I see economic collapse not recovery.
July 29th, 2009 at 11:03 pm
Couldn’t watch it all as Larry took over in the middle to tell us how wonderful everything is. Interesting that they remove aircraft to show an increase in captial goods this month, but didn’t mention doing that last month when it pumped the numbers.
July 30th, 2009 at 9:22 am
Mike,
That’s just part of the game, just like last year, before the commodity meltdown it was: “well, if you take out financials, things aren’t so bad)