Initial Jobless Claims totaled 614k, 1k less than expected but the prior month was revised up by 3k to 630k. Continuing Claims fell by 53k from last week and was 38k less than expected. There has been a big discussion of late over the expiration of unemployment insurance and how the recent drop in Continuing Claims is due to people losing it rather than finding a new job. While there is no question benefits are expiring without one finding a job, as evidenced by the rising exhaustion rate, many losing those benefits now started getting them when initial claims were running in the 400k range last summer. Now its running above 600k, so there are still more people filing initial claims than getting removed from the continuing claims data, thus continuing claims still should trend higher assuming no sudden change in hiring trends.

Category: MacroNotes

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5 Responses to “Jobless Claims”

  1. Pat G. says:

    “so there are still more people filing initial claims than getting removed from the continuing claims data,”

    And when those measurements reverse the USG better get out another stimulus or the police are going to get really busy.

  2. Jojo says:

    I agree with Pat.

    It’s unfortunate but a further federal extension of unemployment insurance is desperately needed.

    Unemployment payments are the only thing keeping a lot more people from moving into hotel “shopping cart”. And that can only lead to increased social unrest.

  3. thetanman says:

    Better not bring the troops in Iraq back home to this job market. I have a former MP living next to me selling drugs, and my sister had two vets across from her that had a pile of guns. The police discovered the gun cache because of a drug deal gone bad. The first day they moved in, one of them came running across the street waving his arms (not firearms) and screaming. My sister finally got him to calm down. I’ve talked extensively to all three of these Iraq vets and they seem like nice guys, but you can tell they could be dangerous. We also had an Iraq vet stalk and brutally murder a college student. This is going to be a huge problem.

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  5. Macro Notes has become my new favorite must-read everyday. Great addition, Barry and Peter! Thanks.