Lunchtime Linkage
Some lunchtime reading while you inhale your sandwiches:
• How Bad Are Auto Sales? 10 Questions and Answers (Time)
• Unemployment is now far beyond the worst case (8.8%) of ‘Stress Test’ (Calc Risk)
• Finally on line! The Great American Bubble Machine (Rolling Stone)
• The Unwinding of Lehman Brothers (CNBC)
• Sharp analysis: Is A Case Of Quant Trading Sabotage About To Destroy Goldman Sachs (Zero Hedge)
• America’s Fiscal Train Wreck (Morgan Stanley)
• QE just acting as a sugar rush for insolvent banks that deserve to fail (Telegraph)
• Florida aided Allen Stanford, suspect in huge swindle (Miami Herald)
• Help yourself: Customers are working for companies free of charge, and they like it (The Economist)
• Federal Reserve on How to Handle California IOUs
• SMALL LESSONS FROM A BIG CRISIS (Bank of England)
July 6th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
Oh Barry, please don’t feed the Zerohedge trolls – i’m begging you. Do you really think that the loss of intellectual property from Goldman Sachs constitutes, as Tyler Durden would have you believe, a “threat to national security”? come on… I’ve spent the last 10 days trying to set the record straight regarding almost everything ZH has written when it comes to program trading. You can read the truth on my blog if you are interested.
~~~
BR: No, but I thought it was an interesting piece.
I have instructed the editors to delete OT references to ZH and others . . .
July 6th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
The REITs still have relative strength from the local minimum in March, but the one month frame is a different story. The upgrades from the major brokerage houses must not be having the same effect as before.
July 6th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
OT:
anyone like EK on the OLED story? now ~2.90/sh. up from ~2 at the recent lows..
better, anyone believe that they’ll continue their 0.50/sh. div. ?
July 6th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
@MEH
Maybe they’ll get back into the DOW…
July 6th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
As if there weren’t enough things to be scared of, now we have to worry about “vampire squid?”
July 6th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
I like the Telegraph link discussing Bank of England QE. the money line is-
“the only difference between the UK’s current policy and Zimbabwe-style economics is that QE involves the creation of electronic balances rather than actual notes.”
Since the pound is not mired in the slopfest that is reserve curency I would say that the UK dynamic will be eaiser to evaluate against the Zimbabwe reality as time progresses.
Regarding the UK’s policy making credibility- Liam Halligan, the author, says: “Such credibility, tough to win, is easy to lose. Because of QE, the UK is now losing it – at breakneck speed.”
no doubt
July 6th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
@MEH
If I’d only bought them in 1974 (at the recession low), I’d only be down 70% (ex dividends)…
That’s a 25 year FIBO retrace (back to zero)…Only 3 bucks now looks like the TOP…
Tell Franklin that’s about what he can expect as a “buy & holder” in a “green shoots” economy, and he should keep his eye out for more bargains in the goods producing economy…
July 6th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
@Franklin
For all we know, the “vampire squid” are all fat and happy…
In any case, I doubt they themselves have much to worry about…
July 6th, 2009 at 2:51 pm
could this be true?
http://www.alternet.org/module/printversion/141106
July 6th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
@ Wilid3 – no – it’s a blatant misunderstanding of the fact that the NYSE will be producing the report themselves. I’ve written multiple times about this.
here’s one:
http://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/2009/07/two-sides-to-every-story.html
July 6th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
@willid3
That news was pre-released last week…
Don’t worry…If you’re ever confused from here on out, just wait for their “conviction buy” list to come out, then you’ll know what they’re selling…
OR, just buy the VIX going forward…
Problem solved!
July 6th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
willid,
why not? these ‘Financials’ have been operating under the premise that they could Lie, w/ Impugnity, on “National Security” grounds, for many moon..
even the MSM couldn’t avoid a mention of it..
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/may2006/nf20060523_2210.htm?campaign_id=rss_daily
cv–
I hear you re: EK, and their options chain looks like fertilizer..
July 6th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
im·pu·ni·ty (m-pyn-t)
n. pl. im·pu·ni·ties
Exemption from punishment, penalty, or harm.
——————————————————————————–
[Latin impnits, from impne, without punishment : in-, not; see in-1 + poena, penalty (from Greek poin; see kwei-1 in Indo-European roots).]
The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition copyright ©2000 by Houghton Mifflin Company. Updated in 2009. Published by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/impunity
spelling error
July 6th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
that Time story on cars is not exactly news, its just makes it easier to see what happening there.
July 6th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20090706&id=10120708
GM to get final $20 billion in funding this year
“We want them to be able to spend the whole day without looking at the bank balance and wondering if their check is going to clear,” said Steve Rattner, the former investment banker who heads the Obama administration’s autos task force.
heh, heh, heh….We’d hate for them to miss the party…heh, heh, heh…and the stock sells today for 70 cents….and we’ve given them 70 billion….heh, heh, heh….
July 6th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
wasn’t Florida one of the states that allowed convicted criminals to be in the mortgage business? seems like they were. even allowed bank robbers to get licenses too. can’t imagine what that had to do with their mortgage fraud problem
July 6th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
By the way…anyone taking bets that the final 20 billion to GM is “final”…?
July 6th, 2009 at 3:29 pm
@Bruce
“By the way…anyone taking bets that the final 20 billion to GM is “final”…?”
I’m guessing that Gettlefinger is someone who sleeps as soundly as Franklin with Big O in the top spot…
July 6th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
@ Kid D:
Thanks for that… really. I admire your wealth of knowledge on the PT saga… and truly appreciate your efforts to clean up the reporting of it.
For folks that dont know alot about PT, and have been reading the ZeroHedge version of the story- KD’s blog is a must read.
July 6th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
Bruce
Yep, we’d hate for them (GM) to have to actually worry about their money and balancing their budget and all that bothersome stuff that other businesses (other than big banks) have to worry about. You just can’t run a business like that, don’t ya know? We should all be able to run our businesses and households the way Uncle Sam does, with no real worries about making it all fit in the budget. Good grief.
July 6th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
And no, there’s no way I’d make a bet that GM won’t be getting any more taxpayer money. They’ve essentially been told to not worry about it, just make cars. What a business!
Ford has to be just livid over this B.S. How can you compete against a company that’s backed by the endless stream of taxpayer money? I’m sure GM is busy giving out more zero down, zero percent loans with that money too.
July 6th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
thanks I- Man – i broke my own rule (1 – never get involved in a land war in southeast Asia, 2) never get into a battle of wits with a Sicilan when death is on the line (princess bride) – and 3) – never get into an internet comment thread debate unless you are debating reasonable people) and got into an internet comment defense of myself in this thread:
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/new-york-stock-exchange-we-screwed-up.html
it’s like trying to reason with an angry mob.
July 6th, 2009 at 5:03 pm
Good stuff, KD, especially the fixed income insight on Tyler Durden. I’ve always taken ZH with a grain of salt after they linked to Hal Turner.
July 6th, 2009 at 5:17 pm
Rolling Stone link was excellent!!! Thanks, here it is again for those interested;
The Great American Bubble Machine:
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/28816321/the_great_american_bubble_machine
July 6th, 2009 at 5:20 pm
@ Andrew – when Taiibi posts blatantly incorrect stuff like this (and never corrects it!):
http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/22617
it discredits his other pieces, like the rolling stone one.
July 6th, 2009 at 5:35 pm
Kid – can you elaborate on what specifically was incorrect in the piece you linked to? It didn’t jump out at me, granted, I’m a bit slow when it comes to market manipulation
July 6th, 2009 at 6:11 pm
@ Thor – the tremendous thing about that Taiibi blog is that the entire thing is completely inaccurate. The NYSE did not terminate the report. They have changed the methodology so that they will generate the report from data collected at the time of order entry, instead of relying on the firms themselves to submit the data. They are likely trying to recapture volume they are losing to other exchanges, because now firms will not get “credit” (Advertising-wise) for that non-NYSE volume when the NYSE starts generating the report itself.
July 6th, 2009 at 6:41 pm
Kid – thanks for the explanation. Was reading your posts on ZH as well. You should know better than to argue with TD. The guy is smart, and he does a good job of pushing a very specific ideology, but his hallmarks is that he is absolutely convinced, beyond all doubt and reason, that he is right. He will never listen to your point of view, no matter how valid, because he is one of those unfortunate people who cannot admit a mistake. I noticed in your exchange with him that he’s already started insulting you. His final strategy will be to delete your posts or ban you outright. I’ve seen him do it several times before which is why, despite some of ZH’s obvious merits, I no longer frequent the blog.
I’d save your debating skills for blogs where people will listen to your point of view without resorting to petty insults.
July 6th, 2009 at 10:26 pm
FWIW I was disappointed in the way he responded to you also, KD. The piling from on from the Amen Corner was to be expected, but your post on your own site outlining arbitrage was helpful to a non-trader like myself. Thanks for that.
I actually really liked your opening paragraph, which is good advice for young lawyers also:
One of the mantras my supervisors taught me on the trading desk was not to make other people smarter – if you hear someone say something that you know to be incorrect, assuming they don’t work for your firm, you let them go on with their misconceptions. Knowledge is money.
To that I would just add:
You can’t save people from themselves.