Comments on: Monday Linkage http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/monday-linkage/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 20 Mar 2010 19:28:15 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: AmenRa http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/monday-linkage/comment-page-2/#comment-197784 AmenRa Tue, 28 Jul 2009 03:49:17 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=33610#comment-197784 Inverted hammer not inverted hanging man :) Inverted hammer not inverted hanging man :)

]]> By: AmenRa http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/monday-linkage/comment-page-1/#comment-197783 AmenRa Tue, 28 Jul 2009 03:43:53 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=33610#comment-197783 @cvienne Just took a quick look at the VIX chart. The shadow is way too short for a inverted hanging man. It should be at least 3x the body of the candle. Also it should gap down. This would indicate that the bulls put in a floor (they can't take the pain anymore). Then a close above the high of the candle would give confirmation of the reversal. I've read all of Nison's books but my favorite one on candles is "Candlestick Charting Explained" by Gregory L. Morris. @cvienne

Just took a quick look at the VIX chart. The shadow is way too short for a inverted hanging man. It should be at least 3x the body of the candle. Also it should gap down. This would indicate that the bulls put in a floor (they can’t take the pain anymore). Then a close above the high of the candle would give confirmation of the reversal.

I’ve read all of Nison’s books but my favorite one on candles is “Candlestick Charting Explained” by Gregory L. Morris.

]]> By: AmenRa http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/monday-linkage/comment-page-1/#comment-197779 AmenRa Tue, 28 Jul 2009 03:38:26 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=33610#comment-197779 @Onlooker from Troy quote: "But the market doesn't care, until it cares, then - uh oh." I'm still laughing at this comment. You're right. The market cares about growth and when they realize there won't be any growth then look out below. @Onlooker from Troy
quote: “But the market doesn’t care, until it cares, then – uh oh.”

I’m still laughing at this comment. You’re right. The market cares about growth and when they realize there won’t be any growth then look out below.

]]> By: Mannwich http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/monday-linkage/comment-page-1/#comment-197770 Mannwich Tue, 28 Jul 2009 03:18:04 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=33610#comment-197770 @Onlooker: Excellent point. We can debate all these stats all we want (e.g. GDP), but who really cares if those things are improving if it feels like a recession? Well, CNBC cares because Wall Street and the markets (their masters) will be happy..... @Onlooker: Excellent point. We can debate all these stats all we want (e.g. GDP), but who really cares if those things are improving if it feels like a recession? Well, CNBC cares because Wall Street and the markets (their masters) will be happy…..

]]> By: Onlooker from Troy http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/monday-linkage/comment-page-1/#comment-197767 Onlooker from Troy Tue, 28 Jul 2009 03:08:14 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=33610#comment-197767 “It’s going to feel like a recession, even when it ends.” Another point I've been trying to make with all the recovery talk. Does it really matter? When the realization sinks in that there's not much growth coming after the cliff diving, the market won't be happy (kind of like '02 but MUCH worse). And the folks out there slogging through their daily lives sure won't notice the difference. But the market doesn't care, until it cares, then - uh oh. “It’s going to feel like a recession, even when it ends.”

Another point I’ve been trying to make with all the recovery talk. Does it really matter? When the realization sinks in that there’s not much growth coming after the cliff diving, the market won’t be happy (kind of like ‘02 but MUCH worse). And the folks out there slogging through their daily lives sure won’t notice the difference.

But the market doesn’t care, until it cares, then – uh oh.

]]> By: cvienne http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/monday-linkage/comment-page-1/#comment-197764 cvienne Tue, 28 Jul 2009 03:05:55 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=33610#comment-197764 @AmenRa "Plus I haven’t seen any reversal candles on the daily chart (today looked liked a hanging man but the shadow isn’t long enough)." Interestingly, the VIX candle today looked a little like a hanging man...I'm not surprised...I think many went in to today expecting some profits from equities to get ready to buy some of the auction... It didn't seem like much was proven there (which accounts for the VIX stick perhaps)... @AmenRa

“Plus I haven’t seen any reversal candles on the daily chart (today looked liked a hanging man but the shadow isn’t long enough).”

Interestingly, the VIX candle today looked a little like a hanging man…I’m not surprised…I think many went in to today expecting some profits from equities to get ready to buy some of the auction…

It didn’t seem like much was proven there (which accounts for the VIX stick perhaps)…

]]> By: cvienne http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/monday-linkage/comment-page-1/#comment-197762 cvienne Tue, 28 Jul 2009 03:02:17 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=33610#comment-197762 @AmenRa Hey...THANKS for those two posts! (10:33)(10:41)... That gives me something to clue in on... After the "melt up" (over 960 which was the 233 day MA), I was starting to feel a little lost and directionless... Actually, I took a GIANT STEP back from the whole thing back at 908 (which was a FIBO retrace BACK to 956 at the time from the July lows)...It went through that and 930 so easy, it was like...STAND BACK! I'm going to have to take a look at that 1169 as an outward bogey and watch the behavior inbetween... I'm still BEARISH long term, but as I posted the other day..."I don't like to F*** with aliens"... @AmenRa

Hey…THANKS for those two posts! (10:33)(10:41)…

That gives me something to clue in on…

After the “melt up” (over 960 which was the 233 day MA), I was starting to feel a little lost and directionless…

Actually, I took a GIANT STEP back from the whole thing back at 908 (which was a FIBO retrace BACK to 956 at the time from the July lows)…It went through that and 930 so easy, it was like…STAND BACK!

I’m going to have to take a look at that 1169 as an outward bogey and watch the behavior inbetween…

I’m still BEARISH long term, but as I posted the other day…”I don’t like to F*** with aliens”…

]]> By: AmenRa http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/monday-linkage/comment-page-1/#comment-197750 AmenRa Tue, 28 Jul 2009 02:41:02 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=33610#comment-197750 @cvienne Almost forgot. The S&P HAS NOT broken the 233ema on the weekly chart (@1169). But it did break the 13ema and the 55ema on the weekly. Now if it gets to the 233ema then it's abandon all ye shorts the bell doth toll for thee (or something like that). @cvienne

Almost forgot. The S&P HAS NOT broken the 233ema on the weekly chart (@1169). But it did break the 13ema and the 55ema on the weekly. Now if it gets to the 233ema then it’s abandon all ye shorts the bell doth toll for thee (or something like that).

]]> By: AmenRa http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/monday-linkage/comment-page-1/#comment-197743 AmenRa Tue, 28 Jul 2009 02:33:40 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=33610#comment-197743 @investorinpa Why do you think Geithner is talking to China this week in particular? @cvienne The S&P has breached its 233ema solidly on 7/23. It also has breached the price needed for a reversal in the monthly 3LB (but it still has yet to close the month above it). The monthly 3LB has been in a downtrend since 1/31/08. Plus I haven't seen any reversal candles on the daily chart (today looked liked a hanging man but the shadow isn't long enough). @investorinpa

Why do you think Geithner is talking to China this week in particular?

@cvienne

The S&P has breached its 233ema solidly on 7/23. It also has breached the price needed for a reversal in the monthly 3LB (but it still has yet to close the month above it). The monthly 3LB has been in a downtrend since 1/31/08. Plus I haven’t seen any reversal candles on the daily chart (today looked liked a hanging man but the shadow isn’t long enough).

]]> By: WaveCatcher http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/monday-linkage/comment-page-1/#comment-197732 WaveCatcher Tue, 28 Jul 2009 01:49:33 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=33610#comment-197732 Not to worry, Newsweek cover say, "The Recession is Over." http://www.newsweek.com/id/208633 Not to worry, Newsweek cover say, “The Recession is Over.”

http://www.newsweek.com/id/208633

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