Comments on: National Unemployment Rate Since 1948

By: US-Arbeitslosenrate: Überblick seit 1948

US-Arbeitslosenrate: Überblick seit 1948 — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 14:33:29 +0000

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By: DeDude

DeDude — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 15:22:06 +0000

One of the first thing Reagan did was saving some money by closing the big mental institutions. The state and local governments were supposed to pick them up and put them in small “group home” institutions (and it would be so much better for everybody). However, nobody gave the local governments any money to build those small institutions, so we just got a bunch of mentally ill people living on the streets now.

By: willid3

willid3 — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 15:12:07 +0000

in a similar vein people compare the UE today to the GD, neglecting to note that way its calculated has changed a lot

and i was reading some time back that we had a tent city in Sacramento. it wasn’t exactly widely know for some reason

By: the bohemian

the bohemian — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 14:02:25 +0000

KJ Foehr Says:

“Timmy, and Larry are economic geniuses”

great punchline

By: cvienne

cvienne — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 12:09:28 +0000

@wunsacon

““That’s one of the reasons I’m not 100% short. I try to remind myself — even though the situation was vastly different than now — about how stock prices rose in the 80’s despite the homelessness. Basically, even if the real economy sucks, prices of some things can rise and rise”

—

As far as stocks are concerned, one should remember that after the lows in 1974, the PE’s were at a pretty low level…

That’s not the case now…PE’s are already higher than the ‘07 all time high…So unless some “E” starts coming out to match (fabricated or not), the market will be forced to bid up stocks to dot.com land if stock prices are to rise…

I’m sure Steve Barry can quantify this argument for me, I’m just going my notions & recollections on a Sunday morning…

By: Concerned American

Concerned American — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 11:40:48 +0000

Haven’t they changed the way unemployment was calculated 3 or 3 times since 1981? I think it is worst this time, only not apparent yet, because the people and the country are much more willing to spend money they don’t have this time. In 1981 spending a lot of money you didn’t have wasn’t so popular. When this economy is allowed to finally fall, the result will be much worst than anything in my lifetime. It will be at least as bad as the GD.

By: thetanman

thetanman — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 05:38:56 +0000

During 81-82 I worked in the chemical separation department of a carbon coke plant. As Jed would say weee doggies. It was complete and utter devastation for the chemical industry. Far worse than anything today, anywhere. At least half of cement plants were shut, and swaths of the industry disappeared forever. There were only 11 carbon coke plants left in the whole US, and we were one of the survivors. It had been in continual operation since 1918. Coke was now like gold, and a coke plant in Hilljack Alabama, was ripping the doors off. Our gas storage tank blew up and it didn’t even phase us. And it was across a 4 lane from a gas station! The heat from the giant fireball did sing some people’s hair.

By: wunsacon

wunsacon — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 05:20:01 +0000

>> I wasn’t really talking about the stock market.

Understood, KJ. I knew I was going off on a tangent… .. g’nite!

By: KJ Foehr

KJ Foehr — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 04:49:17 +0000

wunsacon wrote:

“That’s one of the reasons I’m not 100% short. I try to remind myself — even though the situation was vastly different than now — about how stock prices rose in the 80’s despite the homelessness. Basically, even if the real economy sucks, prices of some things can rise and rise.”

I wasn’t really talking about the stock market. I realize stocks don’t always accurately reflect the economy and can be irrational for long periods of time. However, after the ’82 bottom the market was celebrating falling interest rates, inflation, and “government is the problem” era deregulation. What will the market be celebrating now, falling rates? No. Falling inflation? No. Increasing earnings? Unlikely. Decreasing taxes? No. Less government regulation? No. Declining oil and commodity prices? Not likely. A technology breakthrough that boosts productivity like the PC and the internet? No, that’s already happened.

That’s not to say it won’t move still higher in a continuing flood of Fed induced liquidity, but the fundamentals don’t look good to me. And when the economy really does start to recover, how long will Ben be able to wait before starting to raise rates again? That prospect doesn’t bode well for stocks either.

By: wunsacon

wunsacon — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 03:23:49 +0000

>> People don’t sleep on grates

It’s gotta be a desperate situation to want to sleep on a grate for warmth. That *smell*…

>> de-institutionalization of mental patients

Hey, waittaminute. After that, they started kicking *all* patients out of the hospitals. (”You think you’re sick? Heck, no! Now, go out there and be healed, ya healthy bast’d!”)