NFP Data Dissection
Source: BLS
>
So much for the green shoots: Let’s take a closer look at the 467,000 job losses in June:
• Recession Job Losses = 6.5 million since December 2007;
• Total number of unemployed persons (14.7 million); from the start of the recession, the number of unemployed persons has increased by 7.2 million;
• Unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 9.5% –its highest level in over 25 years (August 1983);
• U6 Measures — marginally attached and involuntary part-time workers — was 16.5%;
• Temporary employment fell by 37,600;
• Hours worked fell 0.8%, bringing the average workweek down 0.1 hours to 33; This is a record low going back to 1964;
• Average hourly earnings were flat at $18.53;
• Birth Death Adjustment contributed 185k in June 2009 (versus 165k in June 08)
• The gap between men’s and women’s unemployment rate is 2.5% — Men are at 10.5% versus women at 8% — is the highest it’s ever been since records were kept in 1948.
That word “unexpectedly” has crept back into MSM reports of economic data. I wonder if that happened during the Depression . . . ?
July 2nd, 2009 at 9:55 am
I am curious of the explanation on why unemployment only went up 1/10 of a percent. Does anyone think there is pressure from the WH(and Congress) for the BLS to keep the U-3 under 10%?
July 2nd, 2009 at 9:58 am
The gap between men and women’s unemployment rate is 2.5% — Men are at 10.5% versus women at 8% — is the highest it’s ever been since records were kept in 1948
————–
So does this mean we’re due to see more women to lose their jobs in the next few quarters…. government cuts?
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:02 am
DanM:
No. Women are on average paid less then men. So why would they? Not to mention that there are very few women in construction(building office space and houses).
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:05 am
Perhaps the rate only went up 1/10, because instead of firing people, businesses cut hours worked to a record low since 1964, kept wages flat and cut some temps.
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:08 am
Manufacturing workweek rose 0.1%. I’m sure that just slipped Barry’s mind…
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:10 am
Women are on average paid less then men
——————
With CA in a state of fiscal emergency and probably just ahead of the curve, it would seem that it does not really matter what the salary is.
Not for profit sector (lots of women there and low pay) will probably get shellacked.
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:11 am
On CNBC: Mark Haines saying he didn’t know if he would have a job until recently…what’s up with that?
They have one guest telling the truth…he’s been all over the country talkng to small businesses, chambers of commerce…and things are terrible.
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:11 am
The U3 unemployment rate only went up 1/10 since as people drop off and stop getting unemployment benefits they are not counted in the U3 number. The U6 number would count them. How much did U6 go up?
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:16 am
Nonprofits combating financial stress:
http://www.bizjournals.com/baltimore/stories/2009/06/29/daily7.html
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:18 am
@Franklin
“Manufacturing workweek rose 0.1%.”
That was at paper company…They were manufacturing PINK SLIPS & IOU’s due to increasing demand…
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:19 am
F411 – do you have a point to make? Are you suggesting this is a “good” jobs report? I know you’ve dumbed down your Green Shoots argument to a point where anything short of a complete economic meltdown vindicates you, but please, keep your straw men where they belong, in the garden scaring away the birds.
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:20 am
http://philanthropy.com/news/updates/8727/2-new-surveys-confirm-charity-leaders-perceptions-recessions-impact-runs-deep
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:23 am
@scm0330
I realize it hurts many posters to hear this, but the American economy is not, in fact, dead. The United States will, in fact, recover. I’m sorry.
I have said that unemployment will remain elevated for the next 3-5 years. I have said that unemployment would hit or top 10%. There is growth out there, and after a long (and I expect, very painful) summer, growth will ripple out from the industrial to the service sectors.
Jul 2, 2009, 10:00 a.m. EST
U.S. May factory orders rise 1.2%
By Robert Schroeder
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Orders for U.S.-made factory goods climbed 1.2% in May on a big jump in orders for transportation equipment, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The overall orders number was the highest since June 2008. Excluding transportation equipment, new factory orders were up just 0.8% in May. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting factory orders to rise by 1.3% in May.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-may-factory-orders-rise-12-200972100470
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:25 am
What?
I cant hear you from the sand.
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:25 am
@f411: I admire your tenacity but your blind faith in the O man is somewhat amusing. The one that really jumped out at me is the temps jobs number. If that’s still decreasing, we’re nowhere near a recovery.
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:27 am
Hours worked declined.
Calvin – unemployment may not rise as much as expected because people are now falling off the rolls after they have been unemployed for the maximal time, thus exceeding their eligibility, BR discussed this last week and even had a chart.
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:33 am
Well from Chart 1 is seems that as long as we don’t hit 10% the next 2 month then we are close to the plateau. If we can hold it under 12% the next year we can all sell the bunkers, guns and potato fields.
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:36 am
@f411
For this economy to recover, I think we’ll need a few systemic changes.
We can’t expect any growth coming from an underpaid workforce borrowing money, if we keep the current bubble market economy and credit system, we are doomed.
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:36 am
Impact of asset bubble on non-profit sector maybe:
The average annual growth rate in employment for nonprofits, according to
the “Independent Sector,” was 2.5% for the period 1977 through 2001 –
higher than business (1.8%) and government (1.6%). Over that time, the
number of Americans employed in the nonprofit sector doubled. Nonprofit
employment, at the close of 2001, represented 9.5% of total employment in
the United States, with total employees numbering 12.5 million.
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:37 am
Leftback, i thot the government extended the maximum time to indefinitely..
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:37 am
@DeDude
re: Chart 1
Based on that chart, it could never rise above 10%…It would run out of space…
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:37 am
danm Says:
July 2nd, 2009 at 9:58 am
The gap between men and women’s unemployment rate is 2.5% — Men are at 10.5% versus women at 8% — is the highest it’s ever been since records were kept in 1948
————–
So does this mean we’re due to see more women to lose their jobs in the next few quarters…. government cuts?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I think that’s probably the more worrisome long term thing for a government…when you get a bunch of unemployed men wondering around….it will eventually lead to civil unrest….One doesn’t normally see women tossing molotov cocktails at the Po Po during riots….
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:42 am
cvienne; it wouldn’t have to. Remember that the millions of jobs from the stimulus package have not yet been created. The wast majority of those jobs are still in the planning or advertisement phase. I thought we were going to need a stimulus package II, and that the salvation of our great country would end up depending on the ability of the democrats to haul 2 half-dead senators into the chamber to vote. Now it looks like we may not even need that second stimulus package.
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:42 am
I think that’s probably the more worrisome long term thing for a government…when you get a bunch of unemployed men wondering around….it
—————–
That’s because most of government is led by men. Women are just as dangerous yet for some reason, men still think they’re unthreatening.
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:48 am
Franklin:
Did you buy back those two shares of BGU yet? Never did hear if you were back in the market…
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:48 am
@DeDude
“The wast majority of those jobs are still in the planning or advertisement phase”
—
So do you think I should inWEST all my money in equities? What say all you other inwestors out there?
Sincerely,
Elmer Fudd
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:48 am
@karen: I don’t think so. I believe they extended bene’s another 13 weeks, but that’s it. I may be wrong, although you may be thinking of the endless bailouts for Wall Street and other major corporations.
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:51 am
@beaufor
I completely agree. We’ve been disinvesting in our economy for 30 years now–education, infrastructure, research and development have all played second fiddle to tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts. It’s going to take decades to reverse that, and in the near term–3-5 years–the best we can hope for is tepid growth in the 0-2% range.
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:51 am
The best commentary came from Taleb early today on CNBC. I would love to be able to sit down with him for a few hours just to talk.
It was interesting to watch, he talked about bad things to come and the immediate following question was if hyperinflation was bad. For many, the only outcome remains inflation/hyperinflation. It’s the most crowded trade ever. I see just as many commercials if not more now for buying gold on radio, in print, or on tv as I saw ads for tech stocks and homes during those respective bubbles.
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:53 am
@ben22
I missed that…can you synthesize his response to the inflation question for us?
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:57 am
cvienne; I am an investor not a trader so I always move rather slowly and never put all my money anywhere (not even 50%). Personally I doubled my monthly ROTH 401K contributions in April this year because I believed that we were at least 2/3 of the way to the final low. But don’t listen to me I am always to late, so probably (just like in 2000 and 2003) I managed to wait to long and called the turn around rather than the 2/3 of the way to the turn around.
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:57 am
Here at Schadenfreude, our stronger dollar positions are benefitting from the morning data.
Karen, I’m not sure but I believe Mannwich is correct. Only Blankfein enjoys indefinite government support.
Right now, after churning under firm resistance for weeks, the market seems to be yielding to a probe lower.
Did anyone see the Dennis Kneale rant/meltdown last night about cowardly bloggers on CNBC’s Kneale & Squeal?
He is losing it…. I am sure that ZH is going to have a field day with this and eventually DK is going to have his own “Fan Blog”. You want to talk about cowardly, Dennis? How about you finally own up to those shocking calls you made last September that cost widows and orphans their life savings?
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:01 am
@leftback: I couldn’t even watch the whole thing. I’m still amazed they gave idiot Kneale his own show. I didn’t know that since I don’t watch the channel anymore. Dennis the Menace & co at CNBC are trying to get Tyler and Marla to come on the show (how about that?) but they won’t give up their anonymity and might do something on the phone. I think they’d be wiser to stay away and just keep doing what they’re doing. What they’re doing now is obviously working and getting under the skin of the powers that be? Why change a thing and play the game on their terms? I’d stay away if I were them.
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:02 am
danm Says:
July 2nd, 2009 at 9:58 am
The gap between men and women’s unemployment rate is 2.5% — Men are at 10.5% versus women at 8% — is the highest it’s ever been since records were kept in 1948
————–
So does this mean we’re due to see more women to lose their jobs in the next few quarters…. government cuts?
Yes, and one other rational explanation that I have never bought even though I’ve heard it most of my life…”Why we have to pay government employees very well or otherwise we won’t get the kind of government employee we need..” And now you see where this kind of thinking has led…gold plated retirements…very large salaries…and why? Because no one called the public sector on it for all these many years…it is just not true. Public benefits and salaries higher than the private sector…twaddle…
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:07 am
• Average hourly earnings were flat at $18.53
____________
In America, the streets are paved with gold.
If we could get that up to $40 (even in devalued dollars), the recession would be over. we cannot get out of this by giving the banks more money to lend. The only way out is to get the money into the hands of the indebted.
The long haul is just beginning.
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:08 am
Oil spot is off big time after the jobs data. The USO is sitting on very strong support here at $36.25, a decisive break of that level and we could see a real meltdown in crude next week, which the fundamentals would support.
I agree with Manny that ZH should keep their heads down – the blogosphere is the resistance, the underground, Solidarity. CNBC is the organ of Corporate Fascism. Dennis Kneale is a propagandist. Better and safer to stay in the shadows. Who knows what GS are capable of? Before this is over, people will be disappearing.
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:09 am
Sorry Bruce the “very large salaries” repuglican meme is simply not true. The top 10% compensations in the private sector is far higher than the top 10% compensation in the government. Yes the lower 20 % of public employees are better compensated than their corresponding private group – but that at least gives them the opportunity to become consumers and help save the world.
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:10 am
@Marcus: But at least bankers are approaching record pay levels again as per the WSJ today. From that standpoint, the plan seems to be working rather well.
Are we all really that stupid, clueless and LAZY in this country to not demand real change at this point? Wait, don’t answer that question. You’ll ruin my summer.
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:13 am
39 weeks is max for unemployment benefits- that includes all extensions
on another note- already sold my SDS this morning for a few $- but after reviewing all my trades on SDS for this whole year- I am essentially flat- disappointing -
could have done a 6 month CD- no effort and same result
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:15 am
@leftback
¡Viva la resistance!
Anyone know or remember how many hours are considered full time? If the weekly hours worked continue to decline then most workers will end up part time and lose benefits. JTOL.
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:18 am
Mannwich:
I’m planning on joining the local Republican and Democratic parties (both my Senators are (D), and my Rep is an (R)), just to ask them, in front of their faithful, how it is they came to rest on their laurels while the banksters took us to the cleaners. These dickweeds need some point blank confrontation. I don’t know if joining both is possible, but I have no more problem breaking an oath I’ve made to a politician or party than they do in breaking theirs to uphold the Constitution.
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:23 am
@Marcus: I agree. I think I’ll do the same thing here in Minny or maybe become a registered “I”. My past phone calls and emails have been roundly ignored. Time to go “visit” them in person. Funny how easy it is for them to bail out the elite, while offering weak half measures to rank and file in this country. My guess is enough people won’t wake up in this country before it’s far too late.
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:24 am
“but that at least gives them the opportunity to become consumers and help save the world”
a bit of hyperbole- and to put consumers in a heroic light- I guess savers and the frugal will then destroy the world
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:24 am
Unemployment and the unemployment rate will continue to grow, i.e., the demand for labor will continue to decline, until the price of labor decreases enough to make buying labor profitable again.
This should happen somewhere about the time that a quarter-pounder w/cheese meal in Bejing costs about as much time at the job in China as it does in the US.
International wage arbitrage is effectively what the Fed was trying to hide from view with its easy money, Greenspan put, of the last decade. It worked (the illusion) until it didn’t.
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:27 am
cvienne,
here you go:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31706523
As for this from Mannwich:
I’m still amazed they gave idiot Kneale his own show.
Remember, CNBC, and most people hate bears. Bears equal trouble/darkness, bullishness and misplaced optimism for the sake of being optimistic is the light, nevermind that this blind faith killed you last year. It’s only fitting a guy like that has his own show.
And for the deflation mention of the day:
Just as the previous boom fed on optimism, a deflationary spiral feeds on pessimism. The resulting cascade of debt liquidation often results in deflationary depression. To raise cash to pay off loans, borrowers will desperately try to sell everything that’s not nailed down, including stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate, even art and collectibles. Prices for these assets plummet.
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:29 am
“Are we all really that stupid, clueless and LAZY in this country to not demand real change at this point? ”
Yes. But after the Second Crash, the Hunt for Red October™ redux, things may change in a more real way. Let’s say we see SPX 750, 650, 550 in December while GS playas are picking up those big bonuses as we approach 11% U-3. We may start to hear from the people a little more by that time.
For now it is Green Shoots all the way – we have the Dennis Kneale recovery. Would love to see him added to U-3.
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:29 am
Weather here in NYC is as dark and gloomy as our economic future..no pun intended
Watching Oil and Dollar closely. Oil seem to have decisively broken the 70 level. My VIPSX pick for my retirement fund seem to be on the run. We will have inflation somewhere down the road.
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:30 am
@Curmudgeon: Totally agree with that. That’s the big issue here that nobody wants to/or can resolve. Until that gets resolved one way or another, the only way to pump the economy will be to blow bubble after bubble. The problem is I don’t think they can blow another bubble this time. I think that game is finally up. We may get several mini-bubbles but I don’t think any of them will last that long because not enough people believe in the game anymore (I don’t think, although I may be wrong here).
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:30 am
ahab,
Know what you mean. Most people lose money, a few make money, and then there are those who churn. I finally got tired of churning and now just wait for meltdowns and rebounds. And wait. At the March low had a gut wrenching 20% loss. I just kept buying. If it had been the GDII, I would be wiped out by now. Only about 1 out of 100 investors made it out of the GD to invest another day. This going to be tricky.
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:31 am
Also, the recent post by BR saying he was 80/20 mix right now was awesome. I love what that dragged out in the comments section.
The general confusion is that bears = all in short with leverage.
Wrong.
I saw one person say they stopped coming to the site earlier this year because BR was talking bearish and this person wanted to buy stocks. Now they were all confused that BR was 80/20. WTF was that?
He’s not buying and holding folks, fusion is a trading program. Get with it.
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:32 am
Where’s Eric Tyson today?
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:33 am
speaking of weather, we had an earthquake in DE yesterday!
Probably the most exciting thing that will happen here all year.
It was a 2.8.
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:35 am
@ben22
Thanks ben!
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:42 am
Here is a quick-and-dirty way to estimate the aggregate impact of losing .1 hours from the work week:
Start with a ~$43,000 average annual U.S. income.
Based on a 40-hour week, avg hourly breaks down to ~$20/hr and avg weekly is ~$827.
So a loss of .1 hour/week = ~$2/week on average.
Multiply $2 by the 141 million currently employed and you get $282 million in weekly wages lost across the economy.
Divide $282 million by an average weekly wage of $827 (based on $43k per year) and you get the equivalent of ~340,000 average jobs that could have been supported that week.
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:43 am
Manny and Lefty – Question for you, how do you guys wade through the inane commentary on ZH? I used to follow it months ago but I got annoyed by the constant sensational headlines, I think in a two month period I counted four “Dollar Collapse” headlines and three “bottom fell out of the bond market” headlines. Every once and awhile the guy posts a decent post but all the user comments are pretty bad, especially compared to here. It’s pretty clearly and anti-obama site, which to me, is about as bad as reading F411 here. I hope neither of you is Gordon Gekko
PS – Tyler and Marla are the same person, that’s pretty easy to discern just by reading their posts.
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:47 am
TC Says-
“This should happen somewhere about the time that a quarter-pounder w/cheese meal in Bejing costs about as much time at the job in China as it does in the US.”
very interesting that you said that- not sure if you are aware that this study has been done by the Economist for many years- and it’s with the cost of a Big Mac- which is ubiquitous around the world- can’t use quarter pounder- metric system and all-
Ten fastest earned
Tokyo, Japan – 10 minutes
Los Angeles, United States – 11 minutes
Chicago, Illinois United States – 12 minutes
Miami, Florida United States – 12 minutes
New York City, New York United States – 13 minutes
Auckland, New Zealand – 14 minutes
Sydney, Australia – 14 minutes
Toronto, Canada – 14 minutes
Zürich, Switzerland – 15 minutes
Dublin, Ireland – 15 minutes
Ten slowest earned
Bogotá, Colombia – 97 minutes
Nairobi, Kenya – 91 minutes
Jakarta, Indonesia – 86 minutes
Lima, Peru – 86 minutes
Caracas, Venezuela – 85 minutes
Mexico City, Mexico – 82 minutes
Manila, Philippines – 81 minutes
Mumbai, India – 70 minutes
Sofia, Bulgaria – 69 minutes
Bucharest, Romania – 69 minutes
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Mac_index
https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/03/11/pakko.pdf
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:48 am
@Thor: I scan it quickly and try to parse out the wack-job stuff vs. the useful stuff. There are some really good commenters on that site, but you have to wade through some of the junk first to get to them. After a while, I started to recognize the handles of the quality commenters, so that helps a lot.
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:49 am
as of February 2009
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:51 am
Nice headline from CNBC.com
“FDIC Staff Proposes Private Equity Firms Should Provide Strong Initial Capital To Buy Failed Banks & Own At Least 3 Years (story developing)” At least one agency is trying.
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:51 am
@Thor: Remember, just because the site tends to be anti-Obama, doesn’t mean it’s all wrong. Don’t make the same mistake that others who have ideological blinders on make. And I say this as someone who volunteered/gave $$ to Obama’s campaign (never did either before, that’s how disillusioned I was with Bush and the GOP……Dems haven’t been much better, if at all, except maybe foreign policy).
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:52 am
manny,
I don’t know how accurate behavioral economics is, but research (and history) shows people will try to blow bubbles until the system collapses into a death star. From all I’ve seen I don’t doubt it. I still think Doug Noland is on track about a government finance bubble. Right now we are trying to determine if it will work. Even if it takes hold, there will be another shower of sparks somewhere down the road.
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:53 am
@Thor:
I agree that ZH is erratic, but IMO some of the stuff they are doing is excellent, important and worth wading through.
They should be taken seriously as “playas” in the financial blogosphere. Their posts about program trading and the SLP at NYSE have attracted a great deal of attention.
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:55 am
Thor-
agree that it is brutal to wade through comments on ZH- some funny stuff on there sometimes- however- I don’t see it as anti-O as much as it is anti-same ol’, same ol’- don’t think it would matter who was in office- if that person is not shaking up the system- then he is perceived as part of the problem
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:59 am
@thetanman: Good point. In our case, it seems we’ll continue to try to blow bubbles until it no longer works because it’s far easier than trying to actually fix the situation for the long term. I think we should all be concerned that our entire economy now seems to be based solely on blowing bubbles (e.g. get rich quick) and at some point it’s going to all come to a screeching halt, which will be very painful. It’s going to stop someday. I just hope I’m long gone by then (I highly doubt I will be). I think these bubbles are going to get more frequent but and shorter in duration because of the confidence/trust issue. Without either, it’s nearly impossible to blow a bubble for very long.
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:03 pm
I don’t read ZH comments and the posts are hit or miss. But the blogs are the only true free press now.
We are under occupation, and the media are simply peddling propaganda for the leaders of Bankistan.
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:06 pm
Guys – thanks for the comments on ZH, I understand your rationale for sticking with it. I tend to stick with blogs as much for the user commentary as for the author posts themselves.
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:10 pm
@Franklin411:
I see you still are cheering something about which you can’t know whether it indicates a reversal of the economic downtrend or whether it is just a wobble within a longer-term economic trajectory similar to or worse than the Great Depression.
What about the record total debt to GDP ratio of 375% as of 1Q/2009. Do you think it has any significance for the world’s future economic development? What do you think how it will play out?
rc
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:13 pm
@DeDude:
You think the public sector as a whole is not doing better than the private sector…please..spare me your Franklinisms…the pensions are guaranteed…there have been 2.5 times more public jobs than private over the last decade…and the public sector is bankrupting cities and counties around the country. Easy to hire, hard to fire…
Please..
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:14 pm
As for ZH, I read it for the same reason as I read most blogs: ideas. ZH is sometimes off the wall, but it’s usually entertaining and often has information that may be useful.
Just found this over there, explaining how some of the big program traders make money by whipping prices around. And, of course, the exchanges’ complicity in it. He’s talking his own book because he is one of those humans who claims to do better, but it is interesting and shows why it’s not worth trying to scalp a few percent in hour or so.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/17032728/Toxic-Trading-Saluzzi
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:14 pm
“What about the record total debt to GDP ratio of 375% as of 1Q/2009″
Franky is just going to put it on his Visa card. What’s in your wallet?
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:16 pm
@ thor re: zero hedge
What Transor Z said does it for I:
“Their posts about program trading and the SLP at NYSE have attracted a great deal of attention.”
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:16 pm
LB-
did you happen to check out Stillaway’s excellent post and link from the other day- the comments are integral to the article- highly recommended reading
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/gazprom-and-state-of-nigeria-create-jv.html
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:18 pm
“What’s in your wallet?”
I don’t carry a wallet, but if I do it would have a bunch of $COF puts…ha
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:20 pm
http://www.vindy.com/news/2009/jun/21/health-insurance-your-tax-dollars-work/
Government workers gain
One of the most comprehensive survey of wages and benefits nationally is in a report from the U.S. Department of Labor. It showed last December that an average state and local government worker earned substantially more in 2008 in both wages and benefits than the average worker in private industry.
The wages and benefits of the average government worker were $39.25 per hour, while the figure for a private-industry worker was $27.35.
The survey said the average government worker’s benefits cost taxpayers $13.38 per hour; benefits of an average private-industry worker were $7.98.
In the area of health insurance, the hourly cost for a public employee was $4.25; the health-insurance cost for the average private-industry worker was less than half that at $1.95 per hour.
Yes, statistics can be made to say both sides of this disagreement…but I do think the government worker should feel very good here….his private counterpart has taken most of the lumps so far..
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:24 pm
Bruce – you forgot that they do about 1/3rd the amount of work as those in the private sector and are about half as productive.
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:24 pm
@ahab & leftback (& stillaway): ZH on cue…..
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/nigaz-return.html
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:32 pm
@Thor: It appears that ZH also clearly has Goldman’s attention. That, alone, will keep me going back to the site.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/goldman-sachs-responds-to-zero-hedge.html
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:37 pm
I’ll say this in defense of state govt employees: agency management is often populated by political hacks and/or their incompetent relations. A lot of hardworking people have to clean up after assclowns and put up with unprofessional conduct. You see a lot of stress-related comp claims come out of state and local govt.
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:41 pm
He’s also had some very good stuff re: CRE and REITs lately…
The fact alone that GS felt the need to address his post directly says volumes.
Why waste their time with people like TD, or the guy from GoldmanSachs666, if they have nothing to conceal???
Just sayin.
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:44 pm
@ leftback:
Just as an aside…
Guess who I was shocked to find out owns my local Portland Timbers USL team? I knew it was a guy with the last name Paulson…
But I didnt know it was old Hanky Panky’s son!
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jxR2GzevbRMVu9Cr9KySEemj5r7gD99640380
Ahh… the irony.
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:45 pm
Bruce the issue was compensation, not the number of jobs.
I will continue not to spare you the truth. I speak truth to half-baked myths and outright lies. I guess at some point I just got to pi$$ed at Fox and the sh*t they are spreading.
Compensation in the public sector is not as a whole any better than in the private sector. It’s just not as much spreed out; the low end get more and the high end gets less. And as a matter of fact is what is needed to make a stable and growing economy; more to the consumer class and less to the investor class.
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:45 pm
@I-Man: I had actually read that a while back on Bloomberg.
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:45 pm
Obviously this was a lousy report, but as a forward looking investor, it makes me think that when things do turn, corporate profits may surprise on the upside. That of course assumes the Fed can engineer some kind of faux recovery, but I think you have to assume that and discount armageddon somewhat. If the government stats can be believed, productivity has risen through this recession (which is unusual in itself) so even if things just flatten out, corporate profit margins should expand. I don’t think we’re there yet, but when the turn comes, stocks may perform a lot better than people expect. Just a thought….
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:48 pm
Is it me or is the market protecting the 900 level on the S&P at all costs? It’s eerily similar to the speech by the Pres in the movie “Independence Day”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRGUqd_M6Mg
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:49 pm
@Manny 12:32
Hee hee. GS has noted the visitor logs. Hee hee.
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:51 pm
DeDude:
See my post at 12:20…you and I will just have to disagree that the average public servant isn’t better off than his private counterpart. But I will grant you that in some private fields, that the payoff for the upper strata is enormously better than the public servant…but shouldn’t it be?
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:59 pm
From my reading of the BLS FAQ on the Birth/Death Model, it appears that it is not accurate to say that the 467,000 job loss number in June would have been 185,000 worse if the model was ignored. It does have an impact, but it is not that direct due to seasonality of the B/D model. Here is their quote:
“Q: Can I subtract the birth/death adjustment from the seasonally adjusted over-the-month change to determine what it is adding to employment?
A: No. Birth/death factors are a component of the not seasonally adjusted estimate and therefore are not directly comparable to the seasonally adjusted monthly changes. Instead, the birth/death factor should be assessed in the context of its effect on the not seasonally adjusted estimate.”
http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesbdqa.htm
I don’t know if this seasonality factor is a minor nit that only a government statistician could love, or something more important. Does anyone know?
July 2nd, 2009 at 1:19 pm
Amen Ra: Love the movie. It incorporates every cliche from the cowboy movies to Dr. Strangelove, but it’s still fun.
July 2nd, 2009 at 1:21 pm
Question. 6.5 million unemplyed (cumulative) since Dec. 2007. But some of those people probably got jobs during that time, right? Is there a measurement for the average length of time that a full-time worker spends finding a new job?
July 2nd, 2009 at 1:21 pm
Dennis the Menace, host of CNBS’s “Kneale and Squeal” program, is starting to sound increasingly desperate:
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/he-just-wont-let-go.html#disqus_thread
I seem to remember that in early March, our brave Dennis was curled up in the fetal position as we approached the Sign of the Beast at SPX 666.79, sometimes referred to herein as the Leftback Lows™.
The war between the MSM and the shadow media is already heating up. Don’t be surprised if you see raids on bloggers that offend the bankster regime. They will really get desperate after the next crash.
Thank goodness we have Jon Stewart to inherit the mantle of Walter Cronkite and Dan Rather. The rest of the networks sold out years ago. We are on our own out here.
July 2nd, 2009 at 1:29 pm
@ptc:
Exhaustion rate data sets track average # weeks on UI benefits. The peaks in previous recessions have been around 17 weeks. We’re only around 15 so far.
July 2nd, 2009 at 1:31 pm
we should all do ourself a favor and put any discussion of Kneale to rest. He’s an idiot, it’s plain for anyone that his seen him over the last year to see. He wasn’t in front of the meltdown, failed to understand it as it moved forward and now he’s jumping on the bandwagon for the call that the recession and bear market are over.
Wow, what a surprise, Kneale follows the herd.
I’d rather discuss someone that has something to offer.
Next…..
July 2nd, 2009 at 1:35 pm
@leftback: And this battle will (thankfully) get A LOT uglier before this is over. Like you’ve said many times, pull up a chair, something different is brewing out there.
July 2nd, 2009 at 1:35 pm
ben22: Good point.
LB has taken off his shorts*, pocketed the profits, and is ready for the holiday weekend.
Happy 4th to everyone!
*This refers to closing some trades.
July 2nd, 2009 at 2:01 pm
LB,
I just did the same. I had bought ZSL back recently and dumped it again today. That’s two big wins on that bad boy and only held it a total of 9 days between the two times I traded it.
I’m taking a good 3 day this weekend, I need a break.
July 2nd, 2009 at 2:12 pm
Covered most of my $DUG and $COF shorts as well. Traded some $FUQI. But I am out of most positions.
Going to spend a long 5 day weekend in the Finger lakes region. Have a good 4th of July w.e everyone.
July 2nd, 2009 at 2:23 pm
manhattanguy,
you had to go and top me with a 5 day didn’t you.
Finger lakes area is a great btw. Nice place to relax.
July 2nd, 2009 at 2:26 pm
sorry buddy, 5 day is a much needed vacation. Have a great one!
July 2nd, 2009 at 2:32 pm
Bruce;
Why should the upper strata of leadership in private fields be enourmously better compensated than the upper strata of public leadership? Is it more important to make products (or to make rich people richer), than it is to protect our country and its people? The public servant is someone who serve the people, the private serve themselves (mostly) and other peoples greed and lust for excess. If you want performance pay relative to “what have you done for your country lately”, most CEO’s should be on minimum wage (or they should pay US for the fact that we haven’t shot them, yet).
July 2nd, 2009 at 3:12 pm
@DeDude: By mere “products” I assume you mean make things like penicillin, houses, produce, refrigerators, electricity, books, airplanes and, my personal favorite, beer?
Funny how a dogmatic position glosses over stuff like that under the term “product.”
July 2nd, 2009 at 3:17 pm
Making broad generalizations is always a mistake and leads to a never ending argument because both sides can continue to pull specific examples from their side to make good points.
There’s such a broad spectrum in both public and private employment realms that you just can’t generalize and it’s just not helpful to do so.
With that said, I think there’s clearly a problem with the commitments that have been made to many public employee groups that cannot go on without some modification. Many say that we have to, or should, uphold the commitments that have been made and only change things going forward for younger/new workers, etc. We’re too far down the road for that to be feasible.
We have to face up to the fact that things were structured in a false world of false profits produced by leverage. They have to change. But it’s hell politically, of course. And many will be hurt in the process. But that’s the world we live in now. No amount of wishing will change that.
One thing that this discussion/argument does clearly illustrate is the rift that is developing between public and private employees. I’m seeing this come up all over the place on blogs and it’s going to be just another factor in the social unrest that’s developing. It could get very ugly.
July 2nd, 2009 at 4:49 pm
We have to face up to the fact that things were structured in a false world of false profits produced by leverage. They have to change. But it’s hell politically, of course
————
Interestingly, public servants enjoy defined benefit plans invested in private companies. Meanwhile, most employees in the private sector don’t even have a a pension. Who’s eating who’s lunch? Hmmm.
Government will NOT be able to increase taxes without somehow cutting the benefits of the public sector or matching them for the private side. All those taxpayers without a pension will refuse to pay for all those fully funded public pensions.
I’m betting that the politicans won’t have the balls to cut; they’ll match. And that’s why I believe we’ll get inflation. Like Ben said, he’ll just use the printing press.
July 2nd, 2009 at 5:36 pm
Good news!! We found 52K of those 69K new Census employees who were just hired in the first quarter, then fired in the second. Trish asks “the government laid off workers”? Don’t worry sweetheart, it wasn’t anybody important and incompetent. They’re still employed, making tons of money, passing bills they don’t understand or have time to read due to being too busy meeting with their mistresses and getting laid. God Bless America….
July 2nd, 2009 at 6:17 pm
Transor Z;
Houses and produce requires no big companies with multimillion dollar compensated CEO’s to be produced (nor does beer). One could actually arguee that those sectors would be a lot better off, if all of their producers were small companies and individuals.
When it comes to electricity, it turns out that public companies provide a better and cheaper product than the private for profit companies (who need to increase prices and lower quality to be able to afford the absurd compensations and profit to the share holders). No wonder the medical industrial complex is scared to death of the thought that they would have to get into a free and fair competition with the “public option”.
But just as I will admit that there are a few things in the public sector that are of little value, I will also admit that there are a few things produced by large companies with overcpompensated leadership that are doing good for society. The medical industry, free-loading on the results of public biomedical research and turning it into marketable and useful drugs, may be one of those
July 2nd, 2009 at 6:18 pm
Onlooker;
I agree completely. One thing that does pi$$ off highly educated public employees who are making personal sacrifices to work for considerably lower compensation than they could get in private industry; is to hear those right wing talking points about lazy overcompensated public employees doing nothing else but wasting money and getting in the way of societal progress. Their sensitivity to that kind of BS may have been a bit increased after we have seen how these multi-million dollar excectives destroyed their companies and slammed our country into a mega-ressesion.
July 2nd, 2009 at 6:28 pm
I mean its one thing for those Boozos to claim they are 10 feet tall before anybody have had a chance to see them; but when they continue to claim that even after the curtain has been pulled and everybody but the blind can see they are just dwarfs on step-ladders – now that may be just a little to much to take for some
July 2nd, 2009 at 6:44 pm
DeDude Says-
“No wonder the medical industrial complex is scared to death of the thought that they would have to get into a free and fair competition with the “public option”.”
excellent point- makes sense that with the profit motive removed- and the current middle man- the insurance companies- removed- it may be a cheaper way to do things-
the flip side is that the insurance being provided to those that are currently insured will probably be more expensive on a national plan because it isn’t required to cover anyone beyond the scope of the employers plan-
that is the dilemma- with those who are currently insured – there is no motivation to support a national plan-
what must be explained is – that with a universal plan you are covered- employed- or even after losing your job- that your kids are covered- even if you lose your job- that even if you quit to start your own company- guess what- your family is covered-
so their are ways to sell the universal plan- but people have to want it
July 2nd, 2009 at 7:05 pm
Bruce;
I think I forgot to point out that the reference you gave at 12:20 is standard Fox / Cato false comparisons. Please note that “private industry” and private sector is two different things so the comparison is apple to oranges. The “private industry” happens to not include Wall Street, Law firms, Hospitals, etc. – all those high payed professions that use a lot of educated people, just like government. So if you cherry-pick a specific lower educated and lower payed private sector and compare it to the public sector you would expect to find that public employees are getting higher compensation. Now on the other hand if we only take the public employeed floor sweepers and compare them to Wall Street investment banks we can get the opposite result. Its very easy to swallow the sh*t served up by Fox / Cato and company because they put such a nice sugar coating on it – especially if you “want to believe”.
July 2nd, 2009 at 7:31 pm
call me ahab;
I think the idea of getting a European/Canadian style universal public plan is dead on arrival, even though the fact is that they are providing a lot better care for a lot less money in those countries. The fight right now is whether or not we will be allowed a single public plan as one of the many options amongs hundreds of privately owned plans being offered. The CEO’s of the private health companies are scarred to death of the idea that they would have to perform better in a fair competition with such a plan. The only way they would ever accept it is if they can weaken the legislation such that they are allowed to dump sick patients into the public option (the way they now dump them into Medicaid and Medicare).
The way to sell the public option to people with private insurance plans is to ask them:
1) who would you rather have standing between you and your access to health care a government employee who has to answer to your elected officials, or a private employee who gets bonuses for the number of request he can reject per hour.
2) when your insurance reject your request for letting your cancer stricken child have the newest most effective treatment, who would you rather appeal to your president and/or congress representative who’s re-election depends on what you and your naboers think about his/her performance, OR a CEO who’s bonus depend on letting sick people die as soon and with the least expenses possible.
3) when your insurance company have left you waiting 3 month for approaval of that colon cancer surgery (always saying that they are still processing the request), who would you rather appeal to; elected officials or CEO’s whos personal income increase with your death.
4) when your small company is faced with a tripling of its premiums at the renewal of your health insurance contract because one of your employees got severely sick (and the company want to dump a looser), who would you rather complain to your elected officials or a CEO who feasts on small businesses.