“The total potential federal government support could reach up to $23.7 trillion.”
-Neil Barofsky

>

Yesterday, we noted that the 23 Trillion dollar bailout was a “WTF number.”

The statement above really turns on your definition of the word “Support” — this is not the actual costs, but more of a measure of the total guarantees, loans, indemnifications and credit extended in all of the bailouts.

Floyd Norris takes it apart — in detail — and reveals more hyberbole than actual expense, noting that number given in Congressional testimony “was vastly overblown.”

Key factors to getting to 23 trillion:

• It includes estimates of the maximum cost of programs that have already been canceled or that never got under way.

• It assumes that every home mortgage backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac goes into default, and all the homes turn out to be worthless.

• It assumes that every bank in America fails, with not a single asset worth even a penny.

• And it assumes that all of the assets held by money market mutual funds, including Treasury bills, turn out to be worthless.

• It would also require the Treasury itself to default on securities purchased by the Federal Reserve system.

• Every dollar invested by the government in banks would have to become worthless

• The banks would have to default on securities guaranteed by the F.D.I.C.

• All the collateral posted by the banks to get loans from the Fed would also have to become worthless.

Bottom line: In reality, we are unlikely to get anywhere near that number . . .

>

Source:
Big Estimate, Worth Little, on Bailout
FLOYD NORRIS
NYT, July 20, 2009

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/21/business/economy/21bailout.html

Category: Bailouts, Mathematics

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

78 Responses to “Overstating Bailout Costs”

  1. Mike in Nola says:

    Well, even half or a quarter of that number is pretty scary.

  2. Bruce in Tn says:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/21/business/economy/21manufacture.html

    Obama’s Strategy to Reverse Manufacturing’s Fall

    ….Subsidized loans for manufacturing…? The bailout costs to the taxpayer seem to just keep on growing.

    “Deng is already planning to quadruple the plant’s size. He has applied to the Energy Department for a $120 million loan guarantee. If he gets it, he will not have to pay the hefty fees charged for loan guarantees before Mr. Obama took office.”

    ….and if he goes BK, er, who will be on the hook? Instead of this, actually funding the loans, we should make it more attractive for people to actually get the funding from private sources so that the potential bill to the taxpayer doesn’t go into the Obama Black Hole of government funding. Note that the first bubba interviewed closed due to high property taxes…

    No, it makes better sense just to open the taxpayer’s purse and spend….this on the job training of socialism is running up a real tab…

  3. Moss says:

    So Barofsky is playing politics in his role as watchdog.

  4. shakazulu says:

    Last I heard there was an awful lot of gold in Fort Knox. Wake me when we get to $SPX 1010.

  5. dead hobo says:

    It seems there are willing dupes in media land.

    Mr. Barofsky just pulled together numbers provided by various agencies as their maximum worst case exposure. They are displayed next to the outstanding exposure and the exposure as of a certain date. Both of the actual numbers were a fraction of the maximum potential exposure, but still in the $trillions.

    Somebody is trying to discredit Mr Barofsky by taking his numbers out of context and a lazy media is being most helpful.

  6. shaka-, w/this: “Last I heard there was an awful lot of gold in Fort Knox.”, you make Rip Van Winkle seem like a light napper..

    http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=audit+of+Fort+Knox
    http://www.bartleby.com/195/4.html
    ~~

    to the post: I think it curious that the “pro – Bailout” position is: “but, it wasn’t All cash..”. They seem to think that one can continue to co-sign Notes, all over town, and not have it impact your credit standing. They should try telling their local Banker a similiar story, and see where that gets them..

  7. dead hobo says:

    Page 138 and 139 put the numbers into context.

    I suspect most of the lazy reporters who are covering this story have not looked at the actual report, just Treasury propaganda intended to discredit it.

    http://www.sigtarp.gov/reports.shtml

  8. KidDynamite says:

    i agree that we are unlikely to get anywhere near that number… but that’s also what AIG thought when it was writing all those CDS ;-)

    I think it’s pretty hard to disagree with the fact that at least the FDIC’s mouth has written checks its body can’t cash

  9. franklin411 says:

    @hobo
    I saw Barfosky on Squawk this morning as I was leaving the hotel…this guy is smart as a whip. He was bobbing and weaving and he seemed to think 2-3 moves in advance under the reporters’ questioning. I haven’t read the report, but I don’t think he’s the type that would be blindsided by anything–especially media laziness.

    I’m glad to see there’s pushback against a lot of the silliness that’s going on, though. I’m going to slug the next person who tells me we “spent” $700 billion on TARP–as our rate of return will not be negative or positive, it will be zero.

  10. franklin411 says:

    PS–Anyone have suggestions for my list of Wall Street Wreckage to see for my day in Manhattan tomorrow? Naturally, I’ll do Wall Street/NYSE, AIG, Bear Stearns, Lehman, Goldman, and the Federal Reserve Bank of NY. Other suggestions for things I can see in one day? I have been to Manhattan before for the standard touristy things, so I have three objectives this time: See the financial wreckage, get a hot dog (Nathan’s or Gray’s Papaya), and go to a good Jewish deli (my roommate’s mom always used to send her food from Zabars).

    I pretty much have from noon to sunset. Then I’m spending the night and training to DC at 8 Am.

  11. Chtulu says:

    I feel so much better now.

  12. DeDude says:

    Every exposure has to be judged in the context of how likely you are to have to pay out on it and what % of the total exposure is likely to be recoverable by the collateral. So if society completely brakes down and nothing is worth nothing our government will go broke – duuh. Big f**king deal for all the cave-builders, but not for anybody who is serious. We spend trillions every year on useless sh*t. We would survive just fine if we were forced to have tax rates like back in the 50′ies and 60′ies to pay back our deficit spending of the last 3 decades rather than pass it on to our children and grandchildren.

  13. manhattanguy says:

    Looks like Financials and Oil are selling, Dollar moving higher. Market is in last breadth before giving in?

  14. franklin,

    re: Delis, remember, if they’ll serve a Rueben, with Swiss on the Corned Beef, it isn’t Kosher/save it for the Zagat’s crowd..

  15. VennData says:

    Are you telling me an obscure, ambitious government official exaggerated a bit when given the opportunity on the national stage?

  16. hopeImwrong says:

    Manhattanguy: “Market is in last breadth before giving in?”

    Maybe. I’m in cash, but I’m starting to feel subconscious pressure building to be in stocks due to the apparently unstoppable nature of the market.

    That is usually a sell signal, but only guaranteed if I actually commit $ to the long side (which I have not done, and will not do).

    I’m not comfortable shorting due to the momentum in the market. I’m not looking for a position I have to watch continuously a la day trading.

    Since the March lows, shorting for medium term (weeks) would have always been the wrong decision. Either stops would have been hit, or you’d be underwater. The risk reward ratio has not been there. Day trading is a different story, but the long side has been easier then shorting since March lows.

  17. hopeImwrong says:

    Manhattanguy: “Market is in last breadth before giving in?”

    I don’t think just yet.

    And I don’t see the catalyst for a give in here.

    We don’t seem set up psychologically or technically for a retest of the lows yet.

  18. manhattanguy says:

    “And I don’t see the catalyst for a give in here.”

    Catalyst = Market overbought, CIT failure

    We are going down by end of day.

  19. staedwa says:

    No one mentions that 23 trillion is almost double US GDP???

    I feel that alone is a good enough reason to see this number as being inflated for effect.

  20. They make a lot of assumptions but then again it is government we’re talking about here. Have a little faith in these guys to reach and exceed their numbers. Look at what they’ve done so far.

    If they’re calling 23T something tells me, if you include all expenses with receipts, they will find a way to triple that number

    Never underestimate the power of the government to overspend. Ain’t no mountain high enough, Ain’t no valley low enough….

  21. deadonarrival says:

    The SPX took out 956 to the upside by a fraction of a point.

    So technically we’re at a new high for the year, there sure wasn’t any kind of “short squeeze” to the upside (or otherwise follow-through).

    Perhaps this is just a first attempt. Nevertheless, that action is something to remember going forward.

  22. leftback says:

    Earnings were OK this morning, but in the usual way, EPS beat but revenues mainly fell short, MRK and CAT being exceptions. As the earnings season goes forward we will see more retailers report and that won’t be pretty.

    Crude oil still defying fundamentals, banks looking very soft. The $ is off its lows of the day, making a new low for the year but finding a support area that dates back to Jan 2008. EVENTUALLY this will turn….

  23. hopeImwrong says:

    Manhattanguy

    I have no opinion on “today.” It could easily go down today. I guess the “give in” I’m referring to is different than the “give in” you are referring to. I’m looking for when (if) the bear market will resume. I’m not playing the corrections in this move up since the lows. We are due (as I posted yesterday) for a pullback to refresh the bull.

  24. Lumpy says:

    @How the Common Man Sees It, I’m with you. Follow these numbers:

    1) Japan’s current government debt to GDP ratio is around 185%. That is, the Japanese government owes 1.85x the entire nation’s output for 1 year.

    2) Japan was able to successfully issue this debt to forestall a 1990s deflationary spiral and managed to keep the country whole for the last 20 years, without major rioting, but also without any major economic gains for 20 years. They blew the money on unneeded internal investments like airports in rice paddies.

    3) The estimated U.S. GDP for 2008 was $14.3 trillion dollars.

    4) If Bernanke-san is looking at Japan as an example of how much a nation can bear in debt, we would multiply $14.3 trillion x 1.85.

    5) That total is $26 trillion dollars if the U.S. were to blow cash like the Japanese did.

    An our topic from yesterday’s Bloomberg headlines: U.S. Rescue May Reach $23.7 Trillion, Barofsky Says

    So, the special inspector general for the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program tells Congress the U.S. is on the hook for $24 trillion.

    My imaginary Bernanke-san would commit $26 trillion.

    Those are too close for coincidence. The Treasury is refuting Barofsky’s totals, of course, saying those are “authorized” debts, but that we’ll never “need” to use all of that authorization.

    But now, I think Barofsky may be right, given the following quote from a second Bloomberg article yesterday stating that new primary bond dealers for U.S. Treasuries are springing up in New York like weeds. Some select quotes:

    “Bond trading is still the mainstay for Wall Street’s profits.”

    “It’s (government bond trading) become a much better business to be in because of the built-in and ongoing supply that is going to be generated by the government,” said David Robin, an interest-rate strategist in New York at institutional brokerage firm Newedge USA LLC, who started in the bond business in 1980. “It pays to be a distributor of sort of an endless supply of any product.”

    Personally, I thought the commercial/consumer credit bubble was the last bubble that could occur (in our lifetimes).

    I was wrong. The new bubble is T-Bills.

  25. hopeImwrong says:

    The put call ratio seems to indicate a pullback is in the wings.

  26. manhattanguy says:

    I think S&P is in the process of charting a “W” pattern here, we might go back and test 875 again in the next few weeks.

  27. scott simpson says:

    Could we be seeing a “megaphone” top in all of the major indices, traced out since 1st wk in June 2009? If so I believe it projects a downside target of around 780 SPX.

  28. I-Man says:

    I’m with the Manhattan guy…

    I-Man speculation: The correction isnt done, if it was, we wouldnt have moved up so fast.

    I-Man hedge of speculation: If the correction is done, its rather amazing to run up 40% or so off a multi year low and only give back 8%… this would make this rally quite an anomaly… phenomenally so. And we should see a great buying opportunity around the next pullback to the 900 level.

    I got no beef with either scenario, but obviously, I and I lean towards another flirt with 880.

    Maybe its all about the range until the proverbial, Red October, of our esteemed expatriot brit.

    Good times.

  29. I-Man says:

    @ MEH:

    Georgia Guidestones?

  30. deadonarrival says:

    @Franklin411

    “I pretty much have from noon to sunset. Then I’m spending the night and training to DC at 8 Am”

    *****

    When you get off the train in DC, if you follow that high pitched “whirring” sound, that will take you straight to the Bureau of Engraving & Printing. That’s where they print all the dollars for all the bailouts. At the moment, the notes look curiously like Monopoly money.

    Instead, if you follow the “sucking” sound. That will take you to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. where a human vacuum cleaner with big ears resides. He will be happy to take your donation & otherwise separate you from your wallet on the spot.

  31. Groty says:

    Bottom Line: The Baby Boom generation has shackled their kids and grandkids with their debts. It’s disgustingly immoral.

  32. I-Man says:

    I saw them mentioned as a conspiracy theory at the bottom of one of your clusty links on Fort Knox.

    As a sacred geometry kind of guy, they appealed to my interest. Cant believe I hadnt heard of them, being from the South and all. I know they tie in somehow to Mandelbrot and fractal geometry, technical analysis… a nice stumble. Thanks.

    Thats all. I like the clusty searches fwiw.

  33. Thor says:

    I have to give Barry props here – I thought his post yesterday was pretty clear that the 23 trillion number was potential exposure rather than the actual cost but it seemed like a couple of posters read it differently. Kudos for clarification!

  34. deadonarrival says:

    @Groty

    “The Baby Boom generation has shackled their kids and grandkids with their debts. It’s disgustingly immoral”

    Lincoln = Emancipation
    40,41,42,43…..44 = sold back into slavery

  35. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    If it is Tuesday, it must be Redbook:

    http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/EconodayFrame.asp

    Highlights

    Redbook continues to report extreme rates of deterioration in same-store retail sales: minus 5.8 percent year-on-year in the July 18 week for a minus 1.7 percent plunge from June. The year-on-year rate is a new low but not the month-on-month drop, which is modest compared to the 4.3 percent catastrophe Redbook indicated for June. Redbook hasn’t been commenting on why its readings are so extreme though the sweep lower began when Wal-Mart was removed from the sample. In any case, weekly retail reports and nearly all company news out of the sector point to still severe contraction in the retail sector.

  36. Onlooker from Troy says:

    Barry’s quote of the day:
    “People are living longer than ever before, a phenomenon undoubtedly made necessary by the 30-year mortgage.” —Doug Larson

    Maybe this portends longer lives for future generations. But that will just complicate things, won’t it. /snark/

    Indeed, debt makes you a slave, limiting your freedom in so many ways. When will people realize that it’s not worth it.

  37. I-Man,

    here, is more on clusty — http://csusap.csu.edu.au/~jtaylo59/Useful%20Ia%20tools%20for%20Mac%20users/Clusty%20review.html

    and/or “Founded in June 20002 by Carnegie Mellon University researchers, Vivisimo offered an new approach to search. I became intrigued by the promises of Vivisimo’s technology. I wondered if it could be used in other ways too; if it might reveal emerging social trends before they become visible in traditional ways.

    And the clustering approach always seemed much more useful for researching various topics. For example, by seeing the various groupings of a term, i.e.. “bond” which could be James Bond, or a chemical bond, or a family bond–you could find unexpected, serendipitous connections to a term without requiring serendipity to reveal them.

    I would sometimes fantasize about using Vivisimo’s technology for local search sites. I own the domain names SearchSiliconValley.com and SearchBayArea.com, and the same “searchxyz.com” format for the San Francisco Bay Area counties and towns. Vivisimo’s spider is not designed to crawl the entire web, but it is very good at crawling thousands of web sites, perfect for specialized applications, such as indexing a specific region. Clustering the results would be a great way to quickly find all the local Mexican restaurants, or public libraries, and many other uses.

    One of these days I might get to try out Vivisimo’s technology for such an application, but in the meantime the company has been doing very well in the enterprise search market, especially in government applications. Earlier this year it won a prestigious contract, following stiff competition, to provide the search technology for FirstGov.gov, the official portal for the US government. ..”
    http://www.siliconvalleywatcher.com/mt/archives/2006/06/vivisimo_the_da.php
    ~~
    differently, ht tp://goldennumber.net/

  38. Onlooker from Troy says:

    Bruce

    But don’t worry about that (retail sales). Don’t you know that companies are slashing their costs and getting lean and mean so that when this recovery comes they’ll just be rolling in the profits?

    And all that pent up buying demand (never mind the incredible debt levels).

    That’s the investing meme that’s going around to justify this rally and future stock market gains. Incredibly shortsighted and naive, but that’s what the high paid “professionals” are saying. I think some actually believe it.

  39. DeDude says:

    Groty;

    Yes and it makes me sick to think about it. What makes me even more sick is to hear all these whining fat overindulged Americans tell us how they don’t want to or “can’t afford” to pay more taxes to pay down the government debt that they have saddled the next generations with. The political will to make a sacrifice and help others is not there even when those “others” are the next generation. Nobody want’s to give up their overindulgences with huge luxury vehicles, houses and supersized everything, they are all convinced that they are working so hard and have “earned” all of their indulgences. Until all these clowns grow up and learn the meaning of sacrifice and loving your country and fellow citizens, we will continue to dump our children and grandchildren into a hole that they will have such a hard time getting out of that they will barely have time to spit on our graves. Without these idiots voting into office any taxcut and spend politician that they could find we would have been in a position to bail out of the current depression and pay the bills for it within less than a decade.

  40. Andy T says:

    Not sure what the “news” is in Japan this morning, but the Yen does NOT look bearish right now….It has held that neckline three times and has been lively all morning….ditto the 10yr. And the SP500 met predictable resistance in a “double top?” Who knows how the day will play out but these are slightly ominous signal for those holding length or purchased stocks today on all the great news.

  41. Boots or Hearts says:

    The herd is just giddy lately. Shed longs into the opening pop and will await some type of pullback. Having a hard time figuring out just where we pullback to, anywhere from 900-925 seems fair game.

    While I would love to get short, seems best to do so after we hit 1k/10k and above, and D. kneale is leading the ticker tape parade on cnbc.

    Enjoy reading you folks here, more of a lurker though I guess.

  42. I-Man says:

    The herd is giddy… understatement.

    I think that old gap support at 910 would be a good place for a pullback.

  43. Onlooker from Troy says:

    I Man

    That gap sure seems like a high probability for a pull back. Just about the right retracement needed after that fast move up and filling the gap helps the bulls. Set a new higher lower on the intermediate term and there will be plenty of buyers between the dip buyers and bears covering to support there.

  44. Boots or Hearts says:

    Thanks I man, 910 is a good spot to watch. Have had some toes taken off with the SDS since the rally went into la la land, planning to be back into it when the music stops.

  45. CapitalistCanuck says:

    @Andy T & I-man

    Don’t forget Apple reports today after the bell and although I favor the odds of a downside move on the report see TI, NOK and DELL and crappy 3GS I won’t bet against Apple. So far they appear to be immune and it could support the greenshots thesis and provide the extra lift to the upside until the industrial/retail sectors take some shine off the rally.

  46. CapitalistCanuck says:

    As I stated back on July 2nd, the market will not fall apart in the summer months. We should see some disintegration into the fall when the focus returns back to economic data as market drivers. Plus, if Goldman’s call is correct and we do hit 1060 on the S&P this year, that’s just 10% more upside for the remaining 5 months and that is not acceptable to traders so expect more volatility to come.

  47. Andy T says:

    CapitalistCanuck:

    Understand that AAPL is reporting, but I would suggest Mr.Market already knows what AAPLs numbers are going to be and it may be priced accordingly. It may be worth pointing out that the 61.8% retrace of AAPLs entire decline comes in at 155.30, pretty much where it hit this morning/overnight, so from a technical point of view I wouldn’t mind betting against AAPL here with a stoploss at 160…that’s sort of where the two-pt downtrend line comes in from 12/28/07 and would be a serious enough break of the 61.8% that I wouldn’t want to hang around short anymore….

  48. Lumpy says:

    @Andy T

    The Japanese Prime Minister just dissolved parliament and called for elections. Polls are showing the LDP (the only party in power since WWII) may lose to the opposition Democratic Party. I don’t know what this portends, but the LDP has definitely been pro-business all these years.

  49. CapitalistCanuck says:

    AndyT

    I’m not a great chart reader which probably explains my poor entry and exit points as a trader, but appreciate that you share your knowledge as it has helped me tremendously. Again, I share a similar conviction that the risk favors the downside for Apple. Netbook sales are erroding higher margin PC sales, and Apple is moving the iPhone to a lower price point so I anticipate lower margins and possibly lower rev. But they just execute so well and that it’s tough to short this stock.

  50. Thor says:

    Capitalist – How much of that lower price point on the i-Phone’s has been swallowed by AT&T in the form of a subsidy though? I thought AT&T was eating that $200 price drop . . . .

  51. manhattanguy says:

    Never ever go long or short right before earnings. From a risk perspective, its always safer to play after seeing how market reacts to earnings news. But there is a great chance AAPL goes down but not because of the earnings quality, but because of overall market conditions.

    Anyone watching the move in the dollar?

  52. franklin411 says:

    Thanks MEH!

    And DOA, I’ve never taken the Bureau of Engraving tour because it’s too touristy. I did get some great pix of the White House and the Federal Reserve building last time though.

  53. Andy T says:

    “Anyone watching the move in the dollar?”

    It’s all I’ve been looking at for 48 hours now and I made some comments about the Euro yday. The consensus view among forex technician types has been that the Euro was in a triangle or pennant. However, if that was the case, then when the market broke the top of the triangle/pennant it should have really exploded in an erect fashion. Instead, it has been somewhat flaccid. Euro is definitely a “mixed bag” for me right now….

    flaccid def. “Lacking vigor or force.”
    erect def. “Directed upward; raised; uplifted.”

  54. CapitalistCanuck says:

    @Thor

    Not sure, I can only speak empirically since I bought the iPhone 3G 8GB last summer for $299 and it can be had for $99. The 3GS now retails for $199/$299 for the 16/32GB respectively with little difference between the two models.

    More importantly – and this is just MY speculation is that Apple will not receive such favorable terms going forward with the likes of AT&T. Every competitor has a smart phone that stacks up comparatively well against the iPhone, they no longer have the generational advantage, not sure if providers will be so generous with Apple on exclusives.

  55. Thor says:

    Capitalist – good points. Another thing to think about if you haven’t already is the release of Snow Leopard, their next OS. Demand for that is going to be fairly high among the Apple faithful. Not sure if that will have any affect on their stock price considering it’ll sell for around $150.

  56. CapitalistCanuck says:

    @Thor

    Good point on Snow Leopard only I think it could hurt Q2 sales as it defers purchases to Q3 in Sept. I’m weighing getting a new laptop now instead of in a few months in anticipation of Windows 7. When I think about it more I find more reasons not to love Apple at $150. I wonder how many ipod sales are cannibalized by iphones moving down market – is there upside to that? Also, lots of people I know buying netbooks I realize it’s not an Apple but for $299 I can get a nice small, lightweight machine to cruise the net instead of a $1000 macbook.

    Well, guess we’ll know in a few hours lol!

  57. Thor says:

    Capitalist – won’t argue with you on netbooks vs a macbook – if those damn netbook keyboards weren’t so small I’d buy one too!

  58. Robert M says:

    Given that Barofsky cannot audit many of the institutions he is responsible for and therefore the quality of the assets held can not be confirmed there is no reason to think the number is to large. With CD’s being written against many financial assets and the US, the taxpayer responsible for the costs of CD’s it is actually to small.

  59. leftback says:

    “Anyone watching the move in the dollar?”

    The FIRST thing LB looks at, since there is ONE TRADE.
    Hoping it will be erect rather than flaccid. (The $).

  60. I-Man says:

    Res-erect the dollar!

  61. DeDude says:

    I’m with y’all; Viagra to the dollar, Cialis to the yen ;-)

  62. I-Man says:

    I guess AT couldnt resist a little AAPL homework… :)

  63. leftback says:

    Haven’t looked at ZH today but I bet Tyler is banging on about HF trading today. This looks like computers running it up and down again.

  64. gregh says:

    Interesting snippet from an Einhorn/Greenlight letter (they don’t link the full letter but do list a quote) –

    “… our top-down view that the recent rally has now priced in a solid economic recovery which may or may not materialize.”

    http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/07/david-einhorns-greenlight-capital.html

    If 950 S&P reflects ‘solid economic recovery’ are we ever gonna see 1100 ? (in the next 5 yrs)?

  65. CapitalistCanuck says:

    Average daily volume is about 60-70%. Of that volume, 50%-70% if HCF trading. How is this a market?

  66. CapitalistCanuck says:

    I feel like this is a Terminator movie, humans vs machines.

  67. constantnormal says:

    @Thor 12:59 pm — I assume you’re talking about the stock not the software, when you say “… considering it’ll sell for around $150″. At WWDC in June they announced pricing for Snow Leopard was going to be $29.95. That pricing should not cause anyone to hold back from buying a new Mac just to get Snow Leopard pre-installed.

  68. constantnormal says:

    @CapitalistCanuck — what leads you to speculate that any of the respondents here are human?

    Why I myself am running on a Tandy 1000, powered by a car battery backing up a solar panel and co-located in a Montana shack formerly occupied by a Mr Kaczynski.

  69. constantnormal says:

    Many of you doubtless believe that a lot is explained by that.

  70. Thor says:

    constant – yeah, I was referring to the OS and the full version at that – I missed the news on pricing though, (good thing I don’t trade stocks huh?). ;-)

  71. constantnormal says:

    By “full version”, do you mean the full client (vs an upgrade client) or the server? The $29.95 is for the full client OS — I don’t think there is going to be an upgrade version due to dropping PowerPC support.

    I can make up stories where the cheap SL pricing helps Apple and stories where it hurts it, but I doubt very much that any software pricing (except maybe the iPhone App Store) rocks Apple’s boat very much at all, as they are first and foremost, a hardware company. The software is just the decorative filigree.

  72. Christopher says:

    leftback Says:
    July 21st, 2009 at 1:27 pm

    “Anyone watching the move in the dollar?”

    The FIRST thing LB looks at, since there is ONE TRADE.
    Hoping it will be erect rather than flaccid. (The $).
    ———————————-

    You Sir, are a brave man.

    The USD looks raggedy to me….I don’t think I’m the only one.
    http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/currency-trading-majors-pairs/2009-07-21.v04.html

    I’m very curious on your morning thought process on the ONE TRADE.
    Would you care to elaborate a bit for the unwashed masses?
    Thanks

  73. CapitalistCanuck says:

    What a surprise apple beats! Guess I was wrong earlier lol but smart enough not to bet on it! I wonder if this takes the market to new highs or if its the same sell on the news? I’m inclined to believe we see new highs. Yahoo on the other hand….

  74. Thor says:

    Damn – they’re selling a lot of iPhones. Good for them, I still can’t type on one!

  75. Wes Schott says:

    Thor,

    the lowest point on your tapping finger(s) is not where you think it is – recalibrate and you will do fine – no more missed keystrokes

  76. Thor says:

    Wes – I don’t have an iPhone. I’m a heavy user of my Blackberry here at work. We have many people here on iPhones so I’ve tried it out and unfortunately they’re not good for someone with large clumsy hands like mine to type long emails on. :-)

  77. Wes Schott says:

    Thor –

    i picked one up last week (really like it, btw), and that was my experience – recalibrate and find your touchpoint

    i see some people bangin’ ‘em out just as fast as the crackberry users, but i think those are all people under 25

    i don’t usually need to type a long message/email on mine (you know me – this comment is getting too long)