The Big Picture - Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Technology, and Digital Media

Payrolls fell 467k, 100k more than expected and vs the drop of 322k in May (net revisions were up 8k). The unemployment rate rose to 9.5% but was .1% less than forecasted but at the highest level since 1983 as the household survey fell by 374k and the labor force fell by 155k. The U6 rate, which includes part timers who want full time jobs and those who’ve stopped looking but will take a job if offered, rose a .1% to 16.5%. The only area of private sector job growth remains in education and health. All other areas shed jobs including the government, led by the federal government (huh?). Temp jobs, a precursor to permanent help, shed 38k jobs after a big moderation of -8k in May. Avg hourly earnings were flat. With the ADP report above 450k for 2 straight months, I believe estimates ignored it and got a bit too aggressive into the 8:30 report and thus the reaction in the futures is a jolt of reality of a still difficult economy.