Thanks for clearing that up. I think? Too funny sometimes how serious our conversations can become here.

Re: “talking their books”

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I’ll reply directly to that…I’ll preface this by admitting that it’s a ONE DIMENSIONAL argument (but something that occurred to me nonetheless)…

I’ll say this…I respect Dougy Kass’ views very much…

Yet since he made the “generational bottom” call back in March he has me scratching my head…Look, it’s WAN’T that hard a call to make (for one who’s a contrarian)…There were NUMEROUS signs that the market was technically oversold at that point…

The MOST REVEALING of all was that the 666 level was an EXACT .618 fibonacci technical retrace from the 1982 low (the start of the current “generational bull” market, which has many, like WB himself, seem like geniuses in the process)…

So now e get to “talking your book”…Why do you think that WB is ALL IN for new stimulus? Answer: because without it, it would hurt his book & reputation going forward…WB did nothing more than pile in at the beginning of a credit driven supercycle (which is now unwinding)…

As for Kass?

In April (after a run to 800+) he was already quoted as hedging…Then, in May, he reversed that and put 1,000+ on the table…Wow Doug, you get to be right from 750-1,000 now…congratulations!

But recently, DK nominally defended his “generational bottom” call (although he sure didn’t sound as rosy about it as back in March)…

His most recent HEDGE is that he’s going long SELLING PREMIUM…

So actually, I understand that call…If DK “piled in” at 666 and rode a 40% run-up…His “book” could effectively endure selling premium for the next 2-3 years (while the market MAY sell down to 576…to 480…then rebound back to 666)…He could pile his PREMIUM into averaging down long positions and eeek out a profit over these years…

It’s not such a bad idea…If you’re DK…

But if you were a different fund manager and didn’t participate from March to June…Instead, you might be in full SELL mode right now…You’ll probably be out of business by the end of the year…

Or, if you were someone IN BETWEEN (and, say, were in CASH at the beginning of the year, and managed to get a 10-15% juice during the rally)…You could SELL your equities at this point, and pile into Govvies for the balance of the year at 4-6 basis points below par…

When you crunch all the scenarios, it is easier to understand who may be “talking their books”…

1. The slowpokes (back in March), need a further equity rally
2. The DK’s are probably happy for the market to trade sideways
3. The rest may actually want a SELLOFF, and to make some $$ in govvies & buy lower down the line…

BTW – I know nothing about nothing either…this is all just my hypothesis…

OK. I saw your post about “talking their books” the other day and I agree but isn’t everybody doing that? I read from a few sites that I’m not particularly fond of but I do it so that I get a wide range of perspectives in order to argue against my own hypothesis. A wide variety of my positions I can defend but occasionally I can’t. I figure that person is probably more experienced than I because I have never claimed that I know everything about everything. Just sayin’

If it were the taxpayer as the guy with the tether, instead of him holding it tight in his fists, the rope would be around his neck in a noose and he would be flying through the air choking…

Sounds like H.R. 1207