Comments on: Shiller, Roubini Discuss `Anemic’ Economic Recovery http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/shiller-roubini-discuss-anemic-economic-recovery/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 21 Nov 2009 22:10:06 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: lg71050 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/shiller-roubini-discuss-anemic-economic-recovery/comment-page-1/#comment-192763 lg71050 Mon, 13 Jul 2009 13:56:39 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31904#comment-192763 I'm agnostic on the accuracy of their forecasts. But I think it's hilarious that these guys say that one of the problems is that everybody is scared to death while at the same time continuing to scare everybody to death with their forecasts. Just once, I'd like to see them acknowldege their own role, however small, in creating the conditions they describe. I’m agnostic on the accuracy of their forecasts. But I think it’s hilarious that these guys say that one of the problems is that everybody is scared to death while at the same time continuing to scare everybody to death with their forecasts. Just once, I’d like to see them acknowldege their own role, however small, in creating the conditions they describe.

]]> By: BG http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/shiller-roubini-discuss-anemic-economic-recovery/comment-page-1/#comment-192668 BG Mon, 13 Jul 2009 00:19:48 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31904#comment-192668 Barry, You need to tee this one up. With Assets less toxic, Banks have other troubles By Jim Kuhnhenn, Associated Press Published by US Today http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/banking/2009-07-09-bank-problem_N.htm Boy, this article certainly puts a different spin on things. They've even quoted you in this article. There are so many surprising statements in this article, I'm not sure where one should start. If you like you can start with the premise made in the first line. Hilarious! Yeah, I guess so after being flooded with unimaginable amounts of money and the national debt level goes straight up. No sweat! Looks like we have a rickety four-legged stool. If the author thinks we have already solved the home mortgage problem, then I am sure he will feel the same about the other three any day now. Barry, You need to tee this one up.

With Assets less toxic, Banks have other troubles
By Jim Kuhnhenn, Associated Press
Published by US Today
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/banking/2009-07-09-bank-problem_N.htm

Boy, this article certainly puts a different spin on things. They’ve even quoted you in this article. There are so many surprising statements in this article, I’m not sure where one should start. If you like you can start with the premise made in the first line. Hilarious! Yeah, I guess so after being flooded with unimaginable amounts of money and the national debt level goes straight up. No sweat!

Looks like we have a rickety four-legged stool. If the author thinks we have already solved the home mortgage problem, then I am sure he will feel the same about the other three any day now.

]]> By: Mark E Hoffer http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/shiller-roubini-discuss-anemic-economic-recovery/comment-page-1/#comment-192654 Mark E Hoffer Sun, 12 Jul 2009 22:51:16 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31904#comment-192654 Winnie, It gets no more Correct than that, as you laid it out. Winnie,

It gets no more Correct than that, as you laid it out.

]]> By: Winston Munn http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/shiller-roubini-discuss-anemic-economic-recovery/comment-page-1/#comment-192642 Winston Munn Sun, 12 Jul 2009 21:12:26 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31904#comment-192642 Without a thorough cleansing of the malinvestments, new investment is diluted and much goes to waste - Japan's bridges to nowhere built for no reason and accomplishing nothing look more like our future than any green seedlings of real recovery. Supply and demand are natural results of changing time preferences - when government intervenes in this process of natural selection the end result is always the same - misallocation and malinvestment. You cannot attempt to save the malinvestment and at the same time encourage new, real investment without sacrificing the quality of one or the other or both. We built a world based on fictional values; now our best hope of recovery lies in allowing deflationary forces to restore proper valuations instead of fighting with paper swords to protect an illusion of prosperity. Without a thorough cleansing of the malinvestments, new investment is diluted and much goes to waste – Japan’s bridges to nowhere built for no reason and accomplishing nothing look more like our future than any green seedlings of real recovery.

Supply and demand are natural results of changing time preferences – when government intervenes in this process of natural selection the end result is always the same – misallocation and malinvestment.

You cannot attempt to save the malinvestment and at the same time encourage new, real investment without sacrificing the quality of one or the other or both. We built a world based on fictional values; now our best hope of recovery lies in allowing deflationary forces to restore proper valuations instead of fighting with paper swords to protect an illusion of prosperity.

]]> By: super_trooper http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/shiller-roubini-discuss-anemic-economic-recovery/comment-page-1/#comment-192641 super_trooper Sun, 12 Jul 2009 21:10:42 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31904#comment-192641 Roubini is a lousy predictor of the future. He keeps overestimating the turn of the economy. During the winter he predicted a recovery in the 2nd half of the year. Now it's next year. Sounds like predicting the next 6 months is very hard, why even bother. Roubini is a lousy predictor of the future. He keeps overestimating the turn of the economy. During the winter he predicted a recovery in the 2nd half of the year. Now it’s next year. Sounds like predicting the next 6 months is very hard, why even bother.

]]> By: willid3 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/shiller-roubini-discuss-anemic-economic-recovery/comment-page-1/#comment-192608 willid3 Sun, 12 Jul 2009 19:28:15 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31904#comment-192608 http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2009/07/average-weekly-hours.html more signs of the coming collapse of living standards engineered by wall streeters and banksters and we can't forget the gran pewbar that lead us here http://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles20070314greenspan_let_more_skilled_immigrants_in/ http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2009/07/average-weekly-hours.html
more signs of the coming collapse of living standards engineered by wall streeters and banksters
and we can’t forget the gran pewbar that lead us here

http://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles20070314greenspan_let_more_skilled_immigrants_in/

]]> By: cvienne http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/shiller-roubini-discuss-anemic-economic-recovery/comment-page-1/#comment-192589 cvienne Sun, 12 Jul 2009 18:40:39 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31904#comment-192589 @CNBC Some of the "Song Remains the Same" (Led Zepplin)...but I found the interview well worth passing the time listening to... Among the highlights: - Roubini comment: Green Shoots - Yellow Weeds - Brown Manure (although I still find it curious how he comes up with 1% growth in 2H10...I assume he's discounting a Taleb (which I'm not) - Roubini: Instead of taking away the punchbowl in 2001 they added whiskey, vodka, & gin... - Acknowledgement of the STRUCTURAL LEVERAGE problem by both...Maybe not new, but decisively a DEFLATION before INFLATION argument... - Thoughts on extension of decay rate in unemployment. - Thoughts on FASBY and level 2&3 asset reporting for next 3 quarters. - Thoughts on Bureau of International Settlements - Thoughts on lack of multiplier effect in last stimulus - Thoughts on Fed's use of "rhetorical confidence" in statements - Thoughts on "behavioral economics vs. political response"... - Thought on PERMANENT behavioral change ( that current increase in savings belies improved confidence numbers) There were interesting questions from the audience as well... It was interesting to me that Schiller IS CLEARLY AN ACADEMIC & NOT MONEY MANAGER...He struggled with the "one asset class for the next 6 months question" (and probably got the answer wrong)...Roubini had a better answer... @CNBC

Some of the “Song Remains the Same” (Led Zepplin)…but I found the interview well worth passing the time listening to…

Among the highlights:

- Roubini comment: Green Shoots – Yellow Weeds – Brown Manure (although I still find it curious how he comes up with 1% growth in 2H10…I assume he’s discounting a Taleb (which I’m not)

- Roubini: Instead of taking away the punchbowl in 2001 they added whiskey, vodka, & gin…

- Acknowledgement of the STRUCTURAL LEVERAGE problem by both…Maybe not new, but decisively a DEFLATION before INFLATION argument…

- Thoughts on extension of decay rate in unemployment.

- Thoughts on FASBY and level 2&3 asset reporting for next 3 quarters.

- Thoughts on Bureau of International Settlements

- Thoughts on lack of multiplier effect in last stimulus

- Thoughts on Fed’s use of “rhetorical confidence” in statements

- Thoughts on “behavioral economics vs. political response”…

- Thought on PERMANENT behavioral change ( that current increase in savings belies improved confidence numbers)

There were interesting questions from the audience as well…

It was interesting to me that Schiller IS CLEARLY AN ACADEMIC & NOT MONEY MANAGER…He struggled with the “one asset class for the next 6 months question” (and probably got the answer wrong)…Roubini had a better answer…

]]> By: CNBC Sucks http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/shiller-roubini-discuss-anemic-economic-recovery/comment-page-1/#comment-192582 CNBC Sucks Sun, 12 Jul 2009 18:05:04 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31904#comment-192582 From 2008 through probably the rest of their careers, there will probably be some headline somewhere about Shiller and Roubini discussing some negative aspect of the US economic situation. The dates will change, but the song remains the same. Nothing to see here, move along. Enjoy your own lives, live up to your own talents, and harbor absolutely no bitterness. And remember, The Great CNBC Sucks likes the flame broiled taste. From 2008 through probably the rest of their careers, there will probably be some headline somewhere about Shiller and Roubini discussing some negative aspect of the US economic situation. The dates will change, but the song remains the same. Nothing to see here, move along.

Enjoy your own lives, live up to your own talents, and harbor absolutely no bitterness.

And remember, The Great CNBC Sucks likes the flame broiled taste.

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