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3 Responses to “Shiller: Stocks Fairly Valued But “Could Go Down a Lot””

1. Steve Barry Says:
   July 13th, 2009 at 7:45 am

   As much as I respect Shiller, sometimes he leaves me disappointed…first, he looked at his own housing index last month and somehow concluded we may be bottoming. His 20 city index is 20% above past all-time highs…even if it only drops 15% from here, it would be disastrous. In this clip, he clings to a 10 year avg P/E, when the last 10 years included the height of the tech bubble and all of the housing bubble. This is the quintessential time to throw out 10 year earnings…they are inflated and make the market look cheaper. Shiller may be shill-ing too many books, indices and futures markets. He’s becoming a media personality.

2. Tao Jonesing Says:
   July 13th, 2009 at 11:35 am

   @Steve Barry,

   You make an excellent point about the 10 year average P/E ratio. I’d argue that you have to beware of any analysis that relies on historical P/E ratios to support a price target.

   To be fair to Shiller, though, his only real advice was “diversify.” Other than that, he pretty much just rambled on about all the risk he saw. I find it refreshing to see an expert essentially admit that he doesn’t know exactly what to do.

3. TheTradingReport » Blog Archive » Best Video Title Says:
   July 13th, 2009 at 1:54 pm

   [...] “Precarious State”: Stocks Fairly Valued But “Could Go Down a Lot,” Shiller Says [...]