Comments on: Shiller: Stocks Fairly Valued But “Could Go Down a Lot” http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/shiller-stocks-fairly-valued-but-could-go-down-a-lot/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:04:19 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: TheTradingReport » Blog Archive » Best Video Title http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/shiller-stocks-fairly-valued-but-could-go-down-a-lot/comment-page-1/#comment-192884 TheTradingReport » Blog Archive » Best Video Title Mon, 13 Jul 2009 17:54:28 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31983#comment-192884 [...] “Precarious State”: Stocks Fairly Valued But “Could Go Down a Lot,” Shiller Says [...] [...] “Precarious State”: Stocks Fairly Valued But “Could Go Down a Lot,” Shiller Says [...]

]]> By: Tao Jonesing http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/shiller-stocks-fairly-valued-but-could-go-down-a-lot/comment-page-1/#comment-192810 Tao Jonesing Mon, 13 Jul 2009 15:35:22 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31983#comment-192810 @Steve Barry, You make an excellent point about the 10 year average P/E ratio. I'd argue that you have to beware of any analysis that relies on historical P/E ratios to support a price target. To be fair to Shiller, though, his only real advice was "diversify." Other than that, he pretty much just rambled on about all the risk he saw. I find it refreshing to see an expert essentially admit that he doesn't know exactly what to do. @Steve Barry,

You make an excellent point about the 10 year average P/E ratio. I’d argue that you have to beware of any analysis that relies on historical P/E ratios to support a price target.

To be fair to Shiller, though, his only real advice was “diversify.” Other than that, he pretty much just rambled on about all the risk he saw. I find it refreshing to see an expert essentially admit that he doesn’t know exactly what to do.

]]> By: Steve Barry http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/shiller-stocks-fairly-valued-but-could-go-down-a-lot/comment-page-1/#comment-192734 Steve Barry Mon, 13 Jul 2009 11:45:01 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31983#comment-192734 As much as I respect Shiller, sometimes he leaves me disappointed...first, he looked at his own housing index last month and somehow concluded we may be bottoming. His 20 city index is 20% above past all-time highs...even if it only drops 15% from here, it would be disastrous. In this clip, he clings to a 10 year avg P/E, when the last 10 years included the height of the tech bubble and all of the housing bubble. This is the quintessential time to throw out 10 year earnings...they are inflated and make the market look cheaper. Shiller may be shill-ing too many books, indices and futures markets. He's becoming a media personality. As much as I respect Shiller, sometimes he leaves me disappointed…first, he looked at his own housing index last month and somehow concluded we may be bottoming. His 20 city index is 20% above past all-time highs…even if it only drops 15% from here, it would be disastrous. In this clip, he clings to a 10 year avg P/E, when the last 10 years included the height of the tech bubble and all of the housing bubble. This is the quintessential time to throw out 10 year earnings…they are inflated and make the market look cheaper. Shiller may be shill-ing too many books, indices and futures markets. He’s becoming a media personality.

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