Show Me The Shoots or we’ll see a bath tub shaped recovery

By Peter Boockvar - July 8th, 2009, 7:40AM

Show Me The Shoots, the green shoots that is. It is what every investor is watching and looking for as we begin Q2 earnings season, with guidance being of the utmost importance. The shape of the 2nd half recovery will hopefully get some clarity. Since I believe consumer spending will remain punk, if inventory restocking doesn’t rebound much after the inventory destocking, a bath tub shaped recovery (a stretched out U) we will have instead of a V or W. The MBA said after an 80% drop from the recent highs, refi’s bounced 15.2% while purchases rose 6.7% to the highest since early April as mortgage rates remained steady. ABC confidence fell 1 point to -52, 2 points from its record low as a rise in Personal Finances was offset by a drop in Buying Climate. New lending in China in June totaled 1.53T yuan and brings the total YTD to 7.37T and vs 4.9T for all of ’08 and highlights the enormity of the stimulus. The 10 yr note auction is key today.

PERMALINK
Category: MacroNotes.

Comments

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

5 Responses to “Show Me The Shoots or we’ll see a bath tub shaped recovery”

cvienne Says:
July 8th, 2009 at 8:00 am
How about a “lightning bolt” recovery?…It looks like this…

\
\
\ /\
\/ \
\
\
\ /\
\/ \
\
\
\
\
‘ouch!’
cvienne Says:
July 8th, 2009 at 8:01 am
Hey, that didn’t come out how I drew it…Guess I had to use dots instead of spaces…Anyway, I hope you get the picture…
randomletters Says:
July 8th, 2009 at 9:16 am
Peter, why is it that the fundamental numbers on the economy are so thoroughly poor, and prognosticate so poorly into the future, and yet most investors are like over-caffeinated sprinters at the starting gate, twitching and looking for any excuse to start running? Is the market pathologically incapable of accepting reality?

I suppose it’s better, overall, than a market that has learned helplessness, and doesn’t want to invest for growth, because -well- likely this is a false start too… But why the spastic desire to see what is clearly not there to be seen?
wally Says:
July 8th, 2009 at 9:33 am
I don’t think you ‘recover’ from a burst bubble… you return to normal and stay there.

Take the price of tulips, for instance.
gregh Says:
July 8th, 2009 at 10:06 am
Slim Pickens out there:
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE56710Z20090708