Markets moved downwards on light volume — the Dow and the S&P each lost ~2%.
Nasdaq was the big loser for the day, falling 2.3%. It remains the only major US index still in the green for the year.
Many indices are (once again) below their 200 day moving averages.
Lots of our stops got triggered today on Tech names . . .
>
Nasdaq
S&P500
Dow Industrials
In any great organization it is far, far safer to be wrong with the majority than to be right alone. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Asian currencies continue to sell off vs the $ on the heels of the news yesterday that South Korea said they will look into hot money inflows stemming from the $ carry trade and the Bank of Indonesia said they are looking into the foreign buying of bills. This follows the news a few weeks ago that Taiwan was limiting foreign deposit holdings and Brazil was taxing foreign inflow transactions. As I mentioned yesterday, we may have reached a short term pain threshold in terms of $ weakness and foreign countries are fighting back as they certainly won't wait for...
read more »
July 7th, 2009 at 5:44 pm
As it happens, I sent off my 2009 IRA contribution to Scottrade today so I can start adding to my positions. Of course, I have a 45 year time horizon.
July 7th, 2009 at 5:54 pm
The green shoots crowd will tell you that light volume suggests the decline does not signify anything.
July 7th, 2009 at 5:57 pm
so the 80/20 is now 0/100?
July 7th, 2009 at 6:07 pm
so the 80/20 is now 0/100?
Oh man I knew that was coming. lol. My guess, Fusion was up nicely for the year going into the 80/20 comment and BR did stress in the post about stops. Fusion is a trading tool, not that you were confused ahab but it seemed an awful lot of people in that thread were.
July 7th, 2009 at 6:12 pm
A brief lesson for those who don’t manage money for a living.
You need to understand the decision making process and what you do with limited info.
We scaled into stocks early March thru June. The bulk of deployed capital (50%) was in the market before tax day. Then we keep adding as long as the trend and internals are constructive. Stops are ever present.
Eventually, the market begins to roll over. The most recent positions get stopped out first. Profitable positions have stops at breakeven or better. The unprofitable positions are the money losers with their original stops.
The March & April buys are big money makers, and more than offset the June & July buys.
We invest this way because we don’t know how far the rally is going to run. But we can’t sit on our hands and miss a 75% or even a 40% rally.
That’s how we roll…
July 7th, 2009 at 6:13 pm
@John
To me it suggests, no conviction. Where are all the buyers? All that cash sitting on the sidelines? lol
July 7th, 2009 at 6:36 pm
Pat G.,
You are right, there is no conviction. The present situation demands lots of convictions … of Mozillo, Paulson, Thain, Lewis, Prince, etc.
July 7th, 2009 at 6:45 pm
Ha ha, see you at SPX 150.
Hope you children are all in cash.
July 7th, 2009 at 6:56 pm
“Hope you children are all in cash.”
What, you mean that green paper that looks like it was decorated by a mystic dropping acid, with a fucking disembodied eye staring out over a pyramid? It’ll be good for toilet paper by spx 150.
I hope you children are all in gold, guns and groceries.
July 7th, 2009 at 6:58 pm
The golden cross on the Sp500 is starting to look like a memorial.
July 7th, 2009 at 7:00 pm
@Curmudgen re gold. Yes I do have some and I’m spending some time trawling for cheap underground deposits too.
July 7th, 2009 at 7:05 pm
But I think it might be time to sell crude:
July 7 (Bloomberg) — T. Boone Pickens, founder and chairman of Dallas-based BP Capital LLC, said oil prices will match last year’s record $147 a barrel in three years as producers fail to increase output.
“We’ll be flat at 85 million barrels a year,” Pickens said in an interview. “By 2013 we’re going to see a decline in production. In 10 years we’ll be at $300 a barrel.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQZBAT64L.zk
~Pickens is the best contrary indicator on the planet. Crude tanked last year just as he said its price would never go below $100 barrel again.
July 7th, 2009 at 7:11 pm
The Curmudgeon,
agreed on Pickens. Slimy bastard, that one.
July 7th, 2009 at 7:12 pm
Curmudgeon – I agree, BR posted a link with a prediction for oil at $20. I’d take a bet on that before $100. He’s just trying to make some of the money back he lost on that useless ad campaign last year.
July 7th, 2009 at 7:19 pm
F411 -
Here you go. You’ve been vindicated – someone on the blog with a “see you at SPxxx” call. But let’s consider that as toward one end of the distribution, not as the mean, of sentiment. I just want you to keep it real, franklin. And best of luck with the IRA contribution — “aggressive growth,” I hope??
July 7th, 2009 at 7:20 pm
BR,
Would you mind composing a post or two on lessons for those who don’t manage money for a living? Your explanation above goes a long way and I’d love to read more. (That is unless you can recommend a book that covers the topic well enough)
Thanks
July 7th, 2009 at 7:27 pm
@BR: Thanks for the education. Now if my senior brain can only remember it until next March. Makes perfect sense.
July 7th, 2009 at 7:38 pm
We are now beginning the second dip of a ‘W’ downturn and the advocates of buying our way out of trouble with our kid’s money will soon be screaming to high heaven for a ’second stimulus’.
July 7th, 2009 at 7:40 pm
@wally: correct.
July 7th, 2009 at 8:08 pm
wally
No doubt! They’re already going there (another stimulus; which is actually a third). It’ll never be enough. And they’ll never learn the lessons of history.
The market going down to new scary levels, maybe new lows, is good for getting people’s attention to the fact that things are not all well now and will keep the heat on the bankers. The problem is that it will also bring on new calls for more and more “stimulus” to save the economy. And they’ll always find a rationalization for it, no matter how much debt we pile up, until we get an actual currency crisis, it seems.
July 7th, 2009 at 8:23 pm
@Curmudgeon
There are two reasons oil is taking a hit. The first is obvious, supply is > demand. The second, is a little more interesting. Investors have been using crude as a hedge against inflation and/or a collapse in the USD. Interesting since traditionally, precious metals were used as that hedge. So, they got caught in the wrong position for the wrong reason.
July 7th, 2009 at 8:43 pm
Some of my stops have hit yesterday. Now I wish I sold more when I had the chance. Earnings season starts soon though…we’ll see where it goes from there.
July 7th, 2009 at 9:01 pm
@nenmoonia
Fleckenstien loves to refer to earnings season as the “beat the numbers game”. Most will beat because they’ve been taken down so far in advance. Like all the economic numbers. So, everyone will view this as the “bottom is in” and “irrational exuberance” will start all over again. Most companies who match or beat their numbers will have done it through cost cutting. Think 9.5% BLS unemployment rate which is actually much larger. That’s how those numbers appear to be better or less bad than expected.
July 7th, 2009 at 9:11 pm
@denis_bda Would you mind composing a post or two on lessons for those who don’t manage money for a living?
Noting your request, BR hopped in his time machine, went back to 2005 and wrote a whole series of columns on the basics of trading “The Apprentice(d) Investor” Google them up and be in awe.
Of course, those were somewhat sunnier days than these, and this may be more of a ‘lifeguards only’ day at the trading beach by the market oceans.
July 7th, 2009 at 9:14 pm
Pat G.:
You may well be right. I was thinking about my call that Apple will drop. Bought some far out puts. Apple comes out in a couple of weeks. Was thinking that it may do well this quarter because of it’s strategic launch of the iPhone during the last month of he quarter, so they get to crow about how many they sold (which was a lot) and they get to count all that revenue in the past quarter. You won’t find out about the sales dropping off til next quarter.
July 7th, 2009 at 9:21 pm
@Franklin411
Franklin…
I say this with 100% sincerity…If you are committing NEW $$ to this market, don’t do it with blind faith…Use some common sense…
One thing A LOT of conscientious MM’s would probably tell you would to be to invest in something you BELIEVE in…That is not bad advice…It’s not necessarily going to make you any money, but hey, it’s YOUR money so you might as well utilize it as you please…I mean, if someone is so inclined, they can just blow all their $$ on hookers & yayoe if it PLEASES them, right?
But listen…There are SOLID indications that this market is teetering in the vastly overbought realm…So just be careful out there…
Hell, lefty & me (and probably others out there are in Government T-bills)…So if you believe in Obama, which you have a perfect right to do so, you might consider “financing” what the Administration plans to spend for awhile…I am…
It’s potentially a trade that could be profitable over the next 6 months or so while things work themselves out…At some point, I’m pretty sure equities will reach a trough point that you can roll some of your winnings into that at the proper moment…
In any case, I’m not really trying to give you investment advice here, I’m just warning you that there are TIMES, and then there are TIMES to invest…This is a critical moment…& there is probably a way you can profit AND help along the promises for a new world going forward (as you express in your posts)…
Stay true to that, and I wish you luck…
July 7th, 2009 at 9:38 pm
The WaveCatcher portfolio is fully hedged. The Thrust/Trend timing model is NOT on a SELL signal quite yet, but is getting close.
July 7th, 2009 at 9:39 pm
@Mike in Nola
Good luck with those Apple puts.
July 7th, 2009 at 9:42 pm
Lest we forget, the last bull market was a product of debt of all sorts – mortgage debt, consumer debt, bank leveraged debt, margin debt – hell, we even had covenant lite loans made. The dollars were as loose and free as any buck in any speak easy during the Roaring Twenties.
But those dollars have gone to currency hell, and along with them went the penchant for loose borrowing and even looser lending practices. As a nation, we have turned the corner and find ourselves no longer in the Twenties but somewhere lost in the Thirties.
Yes, we have turned a corner and find that after 80 years all we have done is walk around the block and here we are standing in the end of the soup kitchen line.
This is not going to be pretty, easy, or quick.
July 7th, 2009 at 9:56 pm
An Addendum:
To stop and consider the incredible amount of U.S. overcapacity(mall after worthless mall, plants closing doors, broken houses filled with weeds and broken dreams), to ponder the enormity of the misallocation of resources brought about by relying on a FIRE economy and a magical bubble machine to produce national wealth, and then to contemplate in what industry will there be a demand for 4 million new jobs plus the 150K workers that monthly join the labor force and you get some sense of the desperate position into which we have placed ourselves.
This is not about restoring the banks, finding borrowers, and then resuming our consumptive economic model; this is about observing the total failure of that model and having to find a replacement that works; and all the while trying to do that with the leadership of those who don’t believe anything was ever wrong in the first place.
All I can say is: God bless us everyone!
July 7th, 2009 at 10:02 pm
winston-
good points
July 7th, 2009 at 10:03 pm
@Wave Catcher
I’m feeling your vibe there partner…
Not a sell YET…Probably about 10 more days of clowning around until Thrust/Trend starts blinking, coughing, choking, bellowing, & sputtering…
July 7th, 2009 at 10:04 pm
Winston – very well said.
July 7th, 2009 at 10:22 pm
“Eventually, the market begins to roll over. The most recent positions get stopped out first. Profitible positions have stops at breakeven or better. The unprofitble positions are the money losers with their original stops.”
Interesting strategy….and given your success I would not question what works for you. “Judge not, lest ye’ be judged.”
However, in some places, prop traders treat their positions the same every day. Everyday you walk in and ask yourself: “Is this the position I would have on if I started with a blank sheet of paper?” If it’s not, then adjust accordingly, REGARDLESS of whether or not the position is a loser or winner. The other axiom is: “Your Position should ALWAYS match your View.”
I point this out because I CONSISTENTLY fail with this unwritten rule, despite my best efforts…
I know it’s different with certain positions/tax scenarios etc….so we’re probably comparing apples to oranges….just letting you know how other shops might roll…
Just trying to add to the texture of investing/trading….
AT.
July 7th, 2009 at 10:27 pm
Also, I might add that the futures volume today was heavier than yesterday and Thursday’s volume…..for whatever that’s worth.
July 7th, 2009 at 10:29 pm
BR – nice to have a little trading 101 here.
what would be most interesting, not that defensive maneuvers by active traders are not complex or non interesting, is the offensive plays here? Im sure you must have some in a long-short fund. No doubt you were net long for this latest rally, and likely nailed a group of great positions, but now what? Have you been dca into shorts? What about your offensive plays.
Deep down I know that you questioned the sustainability of this rally at an early point, not that this train of though triggered new short positions. I think many got caught by surprise by the sustainability of this latest rally. Either you initially questioned or it, or you later questioned its sustainability.
Have you been adding to short positions lately, especially now that we crossed back below 200 dma? An average that will continue to naturally fall with time due to where we came from.
July 7th, 2009 at 10:31 pm
@Andy T
What do you MAKE out of the heavier futures volume?
…besides “a hat, or a brooch, or a teradactyl”…of course…
July 7th, 2009 at 10:32 pm
Andy T – stock markets are not rational. Beware getting emotional or married to any one or group plays. That is how I CONSISTENTLY got killed in my trading. I learned, but never quite perfected it. Thats the challenge of the markets, it is so hard if not impossible to perfect. I love it. A neverending lesson.
July 7th, 2009 at 10:34 pm
@Andy T
to narrow down the question…
Where was it?
- Gamma
- Delta
- Sectors
- ETF’s
July 7th, 2009 at 10:35 pm
@Andy T
I was ‘browsing’ some myself, but didn’t notice anything unusual where I was looking…
Perhaps it was EARNINGS SEASON REPORTING related stuff…
July 7th, 2009 at 10:38 pm
@ Andy T – vix up 6.85% today and popping..perhaps fear can return? still it seems banks are holding onto most recent gains, and unless they collapse, I wonder how deep this round of the adjustment may last?
is this the big one?
July 7th, 2009 at 10:42 pm
cvienne: “…besides “a hat, or a brooch, or a teradactyl”…of course…” that’s great, I wonder how many people got the reference
July 7th, 2009 at 10:44 pm
@Thor (Johnny)
Not many I suppose…
One of the funniest characters in movie history…EVER!
July 7th, 2009 at 10:47 pm
@cvienne. I don’t know….I just noted that BR suggested volume was light on a down day and I was merely pointing out that sp futures volume was a bit heavier (at least on the heavily traded mini SPs).
I actually think volume analysis is a little overrated day to day unless it was exceptionally light volume on a big % gain/loss day or extremely heavy after the end of a big down/up move….in other words, 95% of the time I don’t really give it too much consideration.
I’ve never bought into the argument: “Well, everyone’s on vacation in the Hamptons so we shouldn’t give this move credence….” That’s BULLSHIT. I know how it works. The fund manager in the Hamptons might be on vacation but I guarantee you he’s watching the market, he’s got a phone, and he’s got a jr. trader at the desk who is more than willing to sling it around….
@urbandigs. Yes, the only thing preventing me from making a ton of money is myself. It’s true for most traders….Also, sometimes the LESS you know, the better off you are….
July 7th, 2009 at 10:51 pm
That almost escaped me….I rank Airplane on my top 5 funniest movies of all time….favorite line….
Captain Oveur: You ever been in a cockpit before?
Joey: No sir, I’ve never been up in a plane before.
Captain Oveur: You ever seen a grown man naked?
Captain Oveur: Joey, have you ever been to a Turkish prison?
July 7th, 2009 at 10:53 pm
@scm
Thanks! Yep, I still have a lifetime to make the money back if I lose it, and if the S+P 350 crowd are right, then losing my small IRA will be the least of my worries!
@cvienne
I’d like to buy treasuries. Actually, I’d like to buy California bonds, but they won’t let me in the door. AFAIK, the minimum order is $10,000 thru Scottrade and you can’t buy savings bonds for an IRA on your own. Personally, I think this is wrongheaded–America is in an economic war, and it’s foolish to deny average citizens the right to purchase “war bonds.”
I could get a bond fund, but…blah…etfs suck all the fun out of investing. Instead, I’m long American industrials and sin stocks.
July 7th, 2009 at 10:53 pm
@pmorrisonfl
Thanks a ton! I found the link to his whole series on the old blog site. (http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/04/the_apprentice_.html)
Thanks for writing these BR
July 7th, 2009 at 10:54 pm
@Andy T
“The fund manager in the Hamptons might be on vacation but I guarantee you he’s watching the market, he’s got a phone, and he’s got a jr. trader at the desk who is more than willing to sling it around….”
I know what you’re saying…As for VOLUME, I-Man and I were talking today about “illusory liquidity” brought about by program trading…I’m too stupid to figure out how much that factors in, but it was an intriguing concept…
I’m not inclined to get myself worked up about (I mean, who the hell cares if most of the shares traded on a daily basis are between the GS/MS & JPM computers)…as long as the BID is in…Until it ISN’T…That’s when things will get interesting & we’re not there just yet…
gettin’ kinda close though…
July 7th, 2009 at 11:05 pm
@Franklin
In 2H09 US TB’s are sure setting up to be the safest place to be…
I’m sure I don’t have to restate this, but it basically sets up to be an INFLATION/DEFLATION argument…
The INFLATION trade is overcrowded, so it would likely PAY YOU to be a contrarian…& whatever argument you want to make…If the US Government needs your money, why not loan it to ‘em?
Many US Industrials are exceptionally well run at the top (versus foreign competition)…The only problem is that equities ACROSS THE BOARD will likely suffer if there is another round of de-leveraging…
So it’s not a matter of QUALITY, it’s a matter of PRICE…
Use your best judgement…Hell…I LOVE McDonalds…But I’m REALLY going to like it at $35…
July 7th, 2009 at 11:06 pm
@Andy T
Joey…do you like movies about Gladiators?
July 7th, 2009 at 11:10 pm
I often disagree with the thoroughness of Hulbert’s columns. This one however uses several of my own talking points on P/Es. The one thing I’d like to add is that while a 10 year avg P/E is a good concept and would work well most of the time, this is the quintessential time you would NOT use it…when the last 10 years have been a perpetual bubble of some kind.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pe-ratios-very-high-as-earnings-season-begins?siteid=rss
July 7th, 2009 at 11:17 pm
@SB
Good post…
And TOTALLY a head scratcher…I mean, even ROSIE was on CNBC today talking about $50 earnings for the coming 4 quaters (I have no idea where he dredged that up)…And with the repeal of mark to market, who the hell knows what the banks are going to report or how they’re going to report them…Even Meredith Whitney was making positive comments about that…
I suppose there needs to exist some kind of DEFLATOR…or basically some kind of “apples to apples” mechanism (like INFLATION ADJUSTED Box office grosses – an post in one of today’s threads), that can compare HISTORICAL markets to BUBBLE markets (such as we have had since Reagan)…
I’m rambling here but that’s where my thoughts lead me…
July 7th, 2009 at 11:37 pm
Sorry, this movie has some of the best single lines of all time….
From Airplane:
Elaine Dickinson: “There’s no reason to become alarmed, and we hope you’ll enjoy the rest of your flight. By the way, is there anyone on board who knows how to fly a plane?”
July 7th, 2009 at 11:40 pm
Speaking of Airplane… Guys, if you haven’t watched “The Onion – The Movie”, I highly, highly recommend it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Onion_Movie
July 7th, 2009 at 11:56 pm
@Andy T
A couple of months ago I trolled out…
“There’s a sale at Penney’s”
but nobody picked it up…
July 8th, 2009 at 12:00 am
@wunsacon
I noticed Zucker’s name on that…
Wasn’t he involved in “Airplane” & “The Kentucky Fried Movie” (for that matter)?
July 8th, 2009 at 12:15 am
KENTUCKY FRIED MOVIE
Argon Spokesman: Here at our multi-billion dollar refinery in Fairbanks, we’re extracting 2.5 billion barrels of crude oil each day from teenagers’ faces.
——————————————————————————–
Pennington: This is Butkus, Klahn’s bodyguard. He is tough and ruthless. This is Kwong, Klahn’s chauffeur. He is rough and toothless.
——————————————————————————–
[first lines]
Newscaster: The popcorn you are eating has been pissed in. Film at eleven.
——————————————————————————–
[last lines]
Newscaster: I’m not wearing any pants. Film at eleven.
——————————————————————————–
Newscaster: Moscow in flames, missiles headed toward New York. Film at eleven.
—————————–
[a woman is worried about the smell of her home as guests arrive]
1st guest: Fish for dinner last night?
2nd guest: Phewww… Harvey still smoking those cigars?
3rd guest: CHRIST! Did a cow shit in here?
——————————————————————————–
Newscaster: Rams plagued by fumbles as earthquakes rock Los Angeles. Film at eleven.
[two commercials later... ]
——————————————————————————–
A.M. Newscaster: It’s 19 minutes after the hour, and now it’s time for our daily feature The Astrological Hour. A quick reminder: these reports are not intended to foster belief in astrology, but merely to support people who cannot take responsibility for their own lives.
Argon Spokesman: At Argon, we’re working to keep your money!
——————————————————————————–
Henry Gibson: Although, so far there’s no known treatment for death’s crippling effects, still everyone can acquaint himself with the three early warning signs of death: one, rigor mortis; two, a rotting smell; three, occasional drowsiness.
——————————————————————————–
Pennington: These are the Hartz Mountains of Asia. A terrain so rugged, so treacherous, no country will claim it.
Asquith: Worse then Detroit?
Pennington: I’m afraid so.
——————————————————————————–
Pennington: Klahn has been connected with every sort of nefarious activity. You name it – opium, weapons traffic, assassination, motion picture distribution…
——————————————————————————–
Loo: And who are they?
Dr. Klahn: Refuse, found in waterfront bars.
Loo: Shanghaied?
Dr. Klahn: Just lost drunken men who don’t know where they are and no longer care.
Prisoner #1: Where are we?
Prisoner #2: I don’t care!
Loo: And these?
Dr. Klahn: These are lost drunken men who don’t know where they are, but do care! And these are men who know where they are and care, but don’t drink.
Prisoner #3: I don’t know who I am!
Prisoner #4: Yeah. and I don’t drink.
Dr. Klahn: Guards!
[moves prisoners]
Dr. Klahn: Do you care?
Prisoner #5: No.
Dr. Klahn: Put this man in cell #1, and give him a drink.
Guard: What do you drink?
Prisoner #5: I don’t care.
July 8th, 2009 at 12:33 am
F411:
Don’t have a Scottrade account, but are you sure you can’t place smaller orders in the secondary market? Both Schwab and fidelity will take an order for any number of bonds. Fidelity has the better spreads.
July 8th, 2009 at 12:42 am
cvienne, yes, those Zucker bros have a good touch!
Loved KFC, too!
July 8th, 2009 at 12:42 am
Oops…meant KFM. (”M” as in movie…Not “c” as in chicken, which I just ate.)
July 8th, 2009 at 12:44 am
Not to take anything away from Colonel Sanders…
July 8th, 2009 at 12:44 am
The trouble with investing now is the obviously unstable and unsustainable ponzi economy. We still have to flush out this system. We can’t “hide the debt around”. Debt has to be revealed and defaulted. The worst thing that could happen is for this joke of an economy and stock market to be juiced once again. And stop figuring out new ways to spend money !
July 8th, 2009 at 12:59 am
FWIW, summary of latest from Marc Faber. He had turned bullish of stocks and commodites earlier this year, saying the amount of money pumped into the economies could not help but have an effect. Now he seems to be more a little scared of the market, more bearish than bullish, but has no firm conviction.
http://pragcap.com/must-read-latest-marc-faber-update
July 8th, 2009 at 1:33 am
What happens when you get a golden cross followed by a death cross less than a month later?
Maybe we’ll find out soon?
(fingers x’d for teh death cross.. And “Death Cross” WBAGNFARB…)
July 8th, 2009 at 2:01 am
@cvienne, I noticed you trolled a little Caddyshack here within the last couple of days too. The last thread was getting too old for me to follow up w/ you on the Palio. So I was watching it on Italian TV last Thursday, and the whole thing ran for an hour and they never got the race started.
They had to cut away for the 8:30 PM news, and I never saw what happened until I found osmething on YouTube.
It looked like the “outside position” horse basically started the race — until that horse got into the starting area, the race would not start. So the jockey on that horse stayed out for an hour at least. I didn’t know what the heck was going on, but it did strike me as quintessentially Italian….
July 8th, 2009 at 2:45 am
franklin411 sez: “Of course, I have a 45 year time horizon.”
That’s funny, I could have sworn you said recently you had a 60 year time horizon.
Oh here it is. At the same time you said shorting is un-American:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/nfp-data/
May 8th, 2009 at 10:52 am
“@Mannwich
Yep, I have a small IRA that I play with (60 year time frame). Long only, of course. Shorting is about as un-American as sending money to al Qaeda imo.”
When I read about that 60 year time frame I wondered whether you were 10 years old, or were planning to work until you’re 90.
So maybe next month you’ll be down to a 20 or 30 year time horizon?
July 8th, 2009 at 2:55 am
The 60 year time frame remark about your IRA was especially funny, since the IRS requires you to start taking mandatory withdrawals from a traditional IRA when you’re 70 and a half.
July 8th, 2009 at 6:04 am
Anyone know of a way to bet against the Indian markets? I had looked at it a month or so ago, but didn’t see a way. The Sensex has doubled since the March lows and India has an analogous problem to the Chinese in being dependent on the US and EU for outsourcing.
July 8th, 2009 at 6:45 am
“Sell in May and go away” suffered a rain delay this year. But at least real estate bottomed last month (Cramer) and the economy bottoms in late summer (Krugman) and the green shoots are as high as an elephant’s eye (and so is Kudlow!)
July 8th, 2009 at 8:35 am
Pat G. Says:
July 7th, 2009 at 6:13 pm
@John
To me it suggests, no conviction. Where are all the buyers? All that cash sitting on the sidelines? lol
……………………………………
LOL at you, the ones with conviction got slaughtered last year
July 8th, 2009 at 9:13 am
@Mike in Nola
Buy puts on the ETFs, I guess. PIN, EPI.
July 8th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
@Nemo
I don’t have a crystal ball. If I have a career I enjoy and am able to practice when I’m 85 or 90, then I can definitely see myself working 60 years. If not, then I’ll be happy to retire ASAP.
Besides, who’s to say what IRA rules there will be in 5 years, let alone 45? Lifespans? 15 years ago, lung cancer was a guaranteed killer in just months. Today, people can live indefinitely as long as the medication keeps working. Who’s to say how long people will live 50 years from now?
@Mannwich
I’ll look into it, but Scottrade has a minimum order of 10 on all bonds. I tried treasuries, municipal bonds, and state bonds, and they were all the same.