Thursday Readings
Its Thursday afternoon — time for a quick linkfest, starting with quite a few surprising headlines:
• Treasury Bets U.S. Financial System Can Weather CIT Collapse (Bloomberg)
• Behind Goldman Sachs’ second quarter profit (EPI)
• Five reasons it’s too soon to declare the recession over (Business Week)
• Saga Continues for Former GM Shares (MarketBeat )
• Yogi’s Recession (Barron’s)
• Five reasons to fear inflation (the mess that greenspan made)
• Taxing Pot Would Generate $1.4 Billion in California: State Board (OC Weekly)
• China’s Economic Recovery Gathers Steam (Time)
• A WSJ Housing 2-fer:
-Using the Rout in Housing to Lower Taxes
-Mortgage Firms Struggle to Redo Hard-Hit Loans• Why Does Goldman Need A Fed Exemption For VaR Calculations? (Zero Hedge)
• The New Stars of the Blogosphere (WSJ)
• Max Keiser goes postal on GS
• Great Wall of Facebook: The Social Network’s Plan to Dominate the Internet — and Keep Google Out (Wired)
• What Fast Looks Like (Kottke)
Anything else fresh and linkworthy?
July 16th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Not fresh, but stale as Herbert Hoover: Ron Paul calls for scrapping the Fed, going to the gold standard, and laughing at old people starving in the streets.
About to fly out of LAX, so no link. Sorry!
July 16th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
I need some advice. I have a good friend who has $250,000 of CIT 8/17/09 bonds. The bonds are currently trading at 60 cents on the dollar (which seems pretty good considering they are about to declare bankruptcy). Would you have him sell them all and guarantee the return of $150,000 while eating a $100,000 loss or would you tell him to sell $100,000 and get $60k and gamble that bankruptcy will return him at least 50 cents or would you tell him to hold on and see if some private equity or the bondholders come up with a cash infusion?
I need your help ASAP as he doesn’t have much time left today to make a decision. He is in a tough spot and I really want to give him decent advice. Thanks!
July 16th, 2009 at 2:54 pm
Why are all these sites yammering on about the “risk” the Obama administration in taking in letting CIT fail?
From the history of CIT’s troubled past year or so, it seems that they have had plenty of opportunities to compile an extensive dossier on the exposures that CIT presents and ample time to ensure that no large party will be unduly harmed by this.
This was a no-brainer. CIT pretty much hung themselves and seemed to be clueless as to how to avoid the mess they are in.
July 16th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
@jdamon33 — here’s an excellent piece of free advice — don’t advise your friend on how to lose his money. That’s a decision that he must bear all by himself. If you step into the picture with anything more than sympathy and comfort, no good will come to your friendship.
July 16th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
Or am I being obtusely serious here?
July 16th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
Looking at the markets, I guess it’s onward and upward from here, huh?
July 16th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
Why didn’t the WSJ (“The New Stars of the Blogosphere”) mention Yves Smith’s nakedcapitalism.com? Too racy for Rupert?
And what about ZeroHedge?
Barry, was there payola involved in getting mentioned here?
~~~
BR: Yeah, ZH was notable omission.
And I put the link above before I even knew I was in it. Real Time Economics had some additional kind words.
July 16th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
Well, he got a bid of 38 cents on the dollar, so he didn’t take it. Here is the thing, while I understand everyone’s “free market” let them die mantra. I also think you have to take some consideration for the fact that a lot of retiree’s/small investors bought CIT bonds (which were rated at least AA at the time) for the 6% yield. These were being peddled by the E-Trade’s, AmeriTrade, Fidelity’s of the world big time. Now, because the ratings agencies had their heads up their butts, a lot of people who can’t afford to lose their money are going to be just killed.
The government bails out AIG, BAC, WFC, C, etc. and what have we got for it? Big bonuses at these institutions and nothing for the common taxpayer. Why do they decide to let a business like CIT go under? Is it because they weren’t politically connected? Is it because they cator to the small-medium sized businesses? Why does Giethner publically state he felt confident something would happen, only to turn around less then 5 hours later and cut off CIT’ s lifeline?
I can’t believe how badly this country has screwed over both the taxpayers and investors. If BHO could do any worse than he has done, I would be amazed. He is making Bush and his minions look like financial geniuses. BHO comes out and says the stimulus and bailouts are working only to see a Company that has been in business for over 100 years go under. Amazing.
July 16th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
I’d love to see Taibbi’s comments on GS linked.
http://trueslant.com/matttaibbi/2009/07/16/on-goldmans-giganto-profits/
July 16th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
And more to come. Watch what happens this fall as credit card defaults soar and commercial real estate implodes. Not to mention the thinning ice under a lot of states. If we have another year of enormously reduced income taxes, you’re going to see California back on the ropes (if indeed they manage to escape their current plight), along with a lot of company in the form of other states. That will take out a lot more borderline lenders.
And please don’t say “the government bailed out ….” — the government was only the agent, the taxpayers were the ones who bailed out all these institutions that should have failed. And while that is certainly hard on the retirees and investors (like me), just imagine how hard it is going to be on EVERY American if/when the USofA gets its bond rating downgraded.
Welcome to Phil Gramm’s “nation of whiners”.
July 16th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
Hey, where is everybody?
July 16th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
Busy covering their shorts? (I am.)
July 16th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
late day pump for GOOG and IBM- folks trying to get in on the earnings action before the announcement I imagine
July 16th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
They are out scouting cheap real estate to open up business in the coming boom….or not.
July 16th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
They only boom will a load noise from the crash.
July 16th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
I have held on to my QID- now $8 per share under water- every time it climbs back to about $35 or so it gets knocked back down-
pretty discouraging- because I like to concentrate on one trade at a time- and this trade has sucked up a couple months- wonder if the fall will bring me some good news-
I have been pretty lucky with keeping a trade only a day or two- but I guess it was my turn to have the market torment me-
quite bitter
July 16th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
” Behind Goldman Sachs’ second quarter profit (EPI)”
Exactly what I said on the 7-14 thread “What is Goldman Sachs” only in a shorter version. So the stock market rally this week is all fairy dust.
Ben22:
Please read: “Five reasons to fear inflation (the mess that greenspan made)”. Exactly the same points I was making the other day when we were having our delfation/inflation debate. I know that WHEN is now the bigger question NOT if. And I think much sooner than most people are prepared for. Deflation seems to be a slow, drawn out process. Indications are that inflation is not.
“Taxing Pot Would Generate $1.4 Billion in California: State Board (OC Weekly)” I think that I have made my position very clear on this subject for a variety of reasons. If CA needs a reason to legalize it, then an increase in tax revenue is as good as any.
July 16th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
Think this was announced yesterday but MI unemployment jumps a full 1% to 15%! But at least Goldman is doing well. No worries.
July 16th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
For the first time ever, S&P 500 companies paid more tax overseas than they did domestically and in fact overseas tax payments grew in ‘08
http://www.erictyson.com/articles/20090716
July 16th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
Thank goodness the banksters form the foundation of our capitalist economy, and not some poor sods like the taxpayers or the consumers.
I shudder to think about where we are headed if we are relying on the taxpayers and consumers to support the economy.
But with Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan running the show, I can certainly sleep easy at night.
July 16th, 2009 at 4:08 pm
from CNBC-
“Google Profit Tops Expectations”
shocker
July 16th, 2009 at 4:12 pm
from CNBC-
“IBM Earnings of $2.32 a Share Blow Past Analysts Estimates”
July 16th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
jdamon33:
I am really sorry about your friend, but we all have to face up to this: reaching for excess yield will screw people every time. Corporate bonds involve risk, they are not savings certificates. We will hear these stories over and over with the wave of BK. This is why corporate bond yields must go higher. Repricing of risk.
“MI unemployment jumps a full 1% to 15%”
No worries. GS guys need more drivers, gardeners, butlers, maids, footmen and plain ol’ serfs for their castles.
July 16th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
“I have held on to my QID”
ahab: tech tends to rally in the summer, and the NAZ is tech and retail heavy. LC tech also has been cash rich and has weathered the credit crisis well. Eventually the retail will drag it down but the NAZ has been a tough short.
July 16th, 2009 at 4:18 pm
GOOG down after hours-
guidance must be off
July 16th, 2009 at 4:19 pm
@ahab: Classic case of “sell the news”. Pump and dump.
S&P up 7% this week alone. Can this continue in such a horrible economic environment?
July 16th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
GOOG and IBM likely benefiting from weak dollar as well. If/When the dollar strengthens, they (and others who a lot business abroad) will get smacked.
July 16th, 2009 at 4:24 pm
lback-
“but the NAZ has been a tough short.”
no doubt- i was looking at some stochastics showing it overbought when I made my decision- should have pulled the trigger and sold a few days ago when it was around $35-
first time I have really been burned and am now upside down for the year- stupid move really- because I have made almost all my profits on betting on AAPL and GOOG- when the market tanks I would buy postions in those two stocks which would invariably rebound- and then I would ring the register
July 16th, 2009 at 4:32 pm
mannwich-
GOOG down 2.5 % and IBM up 2%- so it can’t really be the pump and dump- GOOG doesn’t provide guidance really- so not sure what may be the issue- unless everyone was expecting even bigger numbers
July 16th, 2009 at 4:49 pm
Question… What were the mark-to-market changes that banks are now taking advantage of to pad profits??? Is there a link where this is spelled out? I own BAC and I’m curious.
July 16th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
I’m thinking that we are going to see a good many months of pumped-up markets … very similar to the 1932-1937 run-up in stocks, pumped up by the forces of that time, while the economy and sheeple struggled to get by.
I can’t justify “investing” in this kind of overly-manipulated market, where half (or more) of the volume is run by computers, and I sure as hell am not going to try to trade against them.
It would be nice if there were something, anything that one could put money into that would provide a decent return, without having to risk it all in doing so. But that does not appear to be the case, not does it seem likely that such opportunities will present themselves for a very long time. Pity the retirees dependent on fixed incomes and the security provided therein. Security is a joke for the foreseeable future.
July 16th, 2009 at 4:57 pm
Love that Max Keiser clip. Apparently the European talk shows haven’t mastered the tricks used to cut off unruly guests after 90 seconds…
July 16th, 2009 at 4:58 pm
@call me ahab
I pretty much gave up trying to explain why holding any short or leveraged ETF for more than a short time is nuts. Sell that stuff as fast as feasible and find a better way to go short, no good will come in holding an asset that decays based on market volatility.
July 16th, 2009 at 5:08 pm
Outlier-
I am with you my friend- no disagreement- was hoping to recover- and was close last week- but alas- I thoughtI would see what the future would bring-
and it wasn’t pretty- any leveraged ETF I have used was for short term- day or two- but this trade kind of got away from me-
live and learn- I have been pretty lucky with the market coming back to me- very frustrating these last several weeks
July 16th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
yeah it took a little getting burned by those ETFs before I really figured out why they are so nasty…
July 16th, 2009 at 5:20 pm
People love to mimic “The Graduate”, one word: Plastics..
Nuevo take: Legal Battles..
for ~40 years they’ve, both, been Wrong.
the Word? Filtration (and Separation)
see: http://www.polarization.com/
“A few of the many applications of our polarized filters include:
~archival and studio photography (crossed-polarized lights)
~quality control in plastic and glass (polariscopes for stress measurement)
~reflected sunglare attenuation
~repair of liquid crystal displays (LCDs) in monitors, TVs and instrument panels.
~control-room windows (blocking view through two windows)
~video survillance (e.g., improving contrast of forest fires)
~educational (overhead demos, hands-on experiments, science fairs, science museums)
~3-D displays (linear or circular custom systems, LCD combination) ”
~~to begin with..
and: http://www.filtsep.com/ for further..
and, to be sure, (don’t) leave out: ht tp://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=EMR+filters
LSS: if you don’t know what you have to begin with, know how you separate it–then, by it’s constituents–you’ll Know.
July 16th, 2009 at 5:28 pm
cn,
w/this: constantnormal Says: July 16th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
and, this: “It would be nice if there were something, anything that one could put money into that would provide a decent return, without having to risk it all in doing so.”
especially, this: “..without having to risk it all in doing so.”
save yourself the anguish of false premises, the ‘Morn, that you M0urn, has never Dawned..
2x-check it, this way: “Our Lives, Our Fortunes, Our Sacred Honor…”
July 16th, 2009 at 5:40 pm
call me ahab Says:
July 16th, 2009 at 4:12 pm
from CNBC-
“IBM Earnings of $2.32 a Share Blow Past Analysts Estimates”
reply:
—————–
How much is that in real money?
July 16th, 2009 at 5:48 pm
HA!
This shit is hilarious!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31947275
Roubini says: “I didnt say that you idiots.”
July 16th, 2009 at 5:49 pm
call me ahab Says:
July 16th, 2009 at 4:12 pm
from CNBC-
“IBM Earnings of $2.32 a Share Blow Past Analysts Estimates”
better reply:
—————-
I just looked at their financials at their site. They did it on exceptional cost cutting and share dilution. Revenues were down pretty good. Yawn.
July 16th, 2009 at 5:51 pm
Corus. Guaranty Bank. More green chutes:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/07/market-precis-and-more-news.html
July 16th, 2009 at 5:52 pm
Re ibm. Here’s about 4% of eps ‘Growth’ (HA HA)
excerpt from financials:
The weighted-average number of diluted common shares outstanding in the second-quarter 2009 was 1.34 billion compared with 1.40 billion shares in the same period of 2008. As of June 30, 2009, there were 1.31 billion basic common shares outstanding.
July 16th, 2009 at 5:56 pm
Yeah, Fleck has been all over the financial shenanigans at IBM too. You should check it hobo.
July 16th, 2009 at 5:56 pm
Re IBM, OK here’s the rest
2009 vs 2008 revenues reported quarter:
TOTAL REVENUE (2009 )23,250 (2008) 26,820
TOTAL EXPENSE AND
OTHER INCOME (2009) 6,319 (2008) 7,786
Fucking-A great!
July 16th, 2009 at 5:56 pm
Outlier @ 4:58
It seems that a lot fewer ETF’s can be shorted now than, say, two years ago. Back then, I could easily short QLD or SDS, no problem. Now my broker won’t let me short any of the financial ETF’s, not even XLF. Can’t short the ultralongs or the ultrashorts, or USO or UNG.
(Outside of the financials and commodities, there are still a few that I can short, such as SPY, QQQQ and OIH).
July 16th, 2009 at 5:57 pm
“Nothings Shocking”
July 16th, 2009 at 5:59 pm
RE IBM again, sorry: I forgot this part due to the way they put it together on the press release:
GROSS PROFIT (2009) 10,581 (2008) 11,599
Next time I’ll do better.
July 16th, 2009 at 6:02 pm
I-Man: I want bad things to happen to Dennis Kneale. Is that so wrong?
Roubini is wigging out. He is BEARISH and DOOM-FILLED, damn it…
The following is a statement from Dr. Nouriel Roubini, Chairman of RGE Monitor and Professor, New York University, Stern School of Business:
“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over “this year” and that I have “improved” my economic outlook. Despite those reports – however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.
“I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If as I predicted the recession is over by year end, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put I am not forecasting economic growth before year’s end.
July 16th, 2009 at 6:13 pm
Noticed that CNBC’s site has corrected the story it put out around noon that Roubini said the recession was about over.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31947275
From what I can make out about GOOG, the revenue numbers didn’t impress enough to justify the run up and 30+ P/E Well, duh.
Both the headline earnings stories on the CNBC site were based cost cutting.
GOOG’s revenuse are down 15% Y/Y.
IBM’s revenue down almost over 13% Y/Y. The last earnings projections I saw on CNBC showed an expected growth in earnings of almost 50% by Q1 2010. Like to see how they do that.
As has been stated here and elsewhere, you can only cut costs so much and it doesn’t increase revenues.
Apologies if anyone has posted these already. Started the post and got distracted.
July 16th, 2009 at 6:30 pm
It all seems so surreal that apparently the only way things can return to a semblance of normalcy is for the banksters+Fed+Treasury to totally lose control of things, and have the entirety of it all collapse into a jumble of shards.
But so long as they maintain control, and accept no injuries to themselves, only the the sheeple, it seems like the economy is fated to slooowly ease into a perverse form of “managed markets”, something like shopping in the old USSR, I suppose.
Or perhaps a better analogy is that of the wild west, where towns were run by the powers-that-be, until the farmers somehow took control, instituted the rule of law (instead of the rule by force) and eventually the gunslingers faded away.
Where the hell is Matt Dillon when you need him?
July 16th, 2009 at 6:32 pm
from CNBC (they’re such financial fucking geniuses)-
“Earnings from General Electric, Bank of America and Citigroup Friday will determine whether the market keeps the week’s winning streak going.”
wow- really? -
sure am glad they’re around to ’splain stuff to me- they must have done got one of them high finance degrees-
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31949840
July 16th, 2009 at 6:35 pm
and the wonders of the modern labor market
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2009/07/why-do-modern-labor-markets-recover-so-slowly.html
now we can really wonder how we get out of this mess
certainly not going to be the consumer this time
July 16th, 2009 at 6:39 pm
Those who live by the Recession Meme die by the Recession Meme.
U.S.S. Roubini taking on water since the Meme peaked in March, 2009.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=roubini_has_been
.
July 16th, 2009 at 6:41 pm
IBM went to the GE Jack Welch school of financial reporting. As did many others. Mark to Fantasy. Smoothing out the numbers.
July 16th, 2009 at 6:42 pm
If one believes that soaring health care is due to rapacious insurance companies, or government intervention, think again …
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-healthcare-pets-vs-humans-2009-7
Vet expenses for our pets are matching our own health care costs, step for step — and our pets have neither government intervention nor insurance coverage.
Scares me. I have no explanation, other than that maybe it’s not that things are costing more, it’s that people’s incomes are eroding.
Even worser, I just last night saw a story on the evening news about how people are able to treat dogs’ arthritis by stem cell therapy — the pets are getting BETTER heath care than the people!
July 16th, 2009 at 6:44 pm
How are these numbers good if top line growth is non-existent? They can only cut so many costs by shipping jobs elsewhere. How on earth is the consumer going to come back if he/she either doesn’t have a job or is scared sh!tless he/she might lose theirs any day now?
July 16th, 2009 at 6:45 pm
@constant: Incomes have remained stagnant for a long time now. That’s a fact. This will not get better as long as the wage arbitrage to emerging market countries continues.
July 16th, 2009 at 6:45 pm
@lefty: glad to see Dr Doom back on the right track, although I am not sure about his prediction for 24 month recession period. I think it will take longer than that. Lot of people will be proven wrong this time.
July 16th, 2009 at 6:46 pm
Just a little video for everyone who has been short the market this week to stay…
COOL…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkdP02HKQGc
July 16th, 2009 at 6:47 pm
L.A. Port traffic not looking too green shooty……
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/07/la-area-port-traffic-in-june.html
@leftback: Get in line on wishing bad things would happen to Dennis Kneale. You’re right behind me.
July 16th, 2009 at 6:48 pm
picked this up at ZH- I always thought Glen Beck was a bit of a doofus but check this out- he goes over the whole GS + USG connection and the way GS was able to kill its competitors (Lehman and BS) and get the USG to cover GS’s losses by bailing out AIG- funny but quite good- surprisingly so-
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/glenn-beck-explains-goldman-web
July 16th, 2009 at 6:52 pm
did GS loose access to that FDIC TLGP programs after they paid back their TARP money?
July 16th, 2009 at 6:53 pm
@willid3: I don’t think so. After all, GS is still a “Commercial Bank”………..disguised as a hedge fund with gov’t backstops ad inifinitum.
July 16th, 2009 at 6:55 pm
and then there is this
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2009/07/ideas-and-rules-for-the-world-in-the-aftermath-of-the-storm.html
DRAT! you would think that paying back TARP meant they didn’t need help huh?
guess not
July 16th, 2009 at 6:58 pm
constant – Interesting you should mention that. I had one of my dogs neutered not long ago. I went to my vet in LA who told me the cost would be $400. I asked him how that could possibly be when I paid $80 bucks for a dog I had 10 years ago. he said that the fee included pre surgery blood tests, IV fluids, an overnight stay, and several medications to take after I brought him home.
I ended up taking him to the SPCA in Palm Springs and paid $100 bucks.
I wonder if there is any reason why health care can’t also be a bubble . . . . prices up double digits every year for decades . . . .
July 16th, 2009 at 6:59 pm
@Mannwich — why does the LA port traffic exhibit that up-down-up-down- … pattern with about a month-long wavelength? I would have thought that shipping would have been more-or-less a continuous function, in order to support just-in-time manufacturing. OK, maybe not manufacturing, at least not here. Could it possibly be so fine-tuned as to maximize shipments arriving around payday?
July 16th, 2009 at 7:01 pm
@Thor: Ding, ding, ding. I think you nailed it. Health care (& education, I might add) were/are in bubblicious-land too.
July 16th, 2009 at 7:02 pm
Manny – LA Ports – Hrmm, let’s see if I can play Franklin for a minute and green shoot that anyhow. . . .
Traffic in the ports is way down, which means traffic to and from the ports will also be way down – the port are has a very high level of pollution as well as cancer rates, therefore, if traffic in the ports is down, there will be less pollution and less cancer which will save us money on health costs . . .
There, how did I do?
July 16th, 2009 at 7:04 pm
@ CV
F*ck musicals.
Suriously… as a cucumber buddy. The heat will come if (or when) I cover.
July 16th, 2009 at 7:05 pm
@Thor
just play it cool boy…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkdP02HKQGc
July 16th, 2009 at 7:07 pm
@Thor — the dog on the evening news that got the stem cell treatment, it cost $2500 to extract some abdominal fat, sent it to a lab where stem cells were extracted (and presumably multiplied via cloning), then shipped back and injected into the damaged joints. After a couple of weeks the dog, which had previously been barely able to move and could not climb stairs, was noticeably more active and was going up and down stairs without hesitation. Sure, maybe in a few years it might get cancer, but this was an old dog that did not have a lot longer to live anyway (unless the stem cells somehow gave it a new lease on life). It blew me away.
We once had a 19-yr-old cat that developed failing kidneys, and one option presented was a kidney transplant. But that wasn’t cheap, and we eventually opted to put the cat out of its misery. (note to others: a 19-year-old house cat is somewhere north of 100 years in people, at least to my way of thinking.
July 16th, 2009 at 7:07 pm
Cvienne – heh, funny. Fortunately I’m not one of those theater mo’s
July 16th, 2009 at 7:07 pm
I-Man
I’m disappointed
…
You DEFINITELY have to tune in tomorrow night…
I have another GREAT video…This one I ran into this week and it’s about the best musical piece I’ve ever heard (along with a stage act)…
I’ve been saving it for Friday Night Jazz…
July 16th, 2009 at 7:09 pm
re pets-
ridiculous- our society is so soft and decadent- has gotten to the point where people look at pets in the same light as other people- if someone told me my dog had cancer I would put him down- right then- right there- my sister had a stupid fucking cat that was probably about 20 years old- she kept going to the vet trying to cure it- but alas it died about 3 months later- in misery- using her couch as a litter box- because it couldn’t move-
and i said to her- what the fuck are you doing to this poor animal- put it down for- put it out of its misery-
but no- it was all about her
July 16th, 2009 at 7:10 pm
@Thor
I’m disappointed in you too…
I played the Ice character in my high school theatre version of WSS…That’s why it sort of popped into my head today…
July 16th, 2009 at 7:11 pm
I turned the music off and almost made it the whole way with subtitles… I get the punchline. Cant you find a reggae version somewhere in the dark hollers of the web?
July 16th, 2009 at 7:12 pm
@Mannwich — re: the LA port traffic — nevermind, I’m an idiot. It’s not a monthly cycle, it’s an annual cycle, with a big dropoff in January of every year (following the Christmas spending season). Didn’t expand the chart, and assumed instead of reading it.
July 16th, 2009 at 7:14 pm
and Germany is having trouble too. land of the export giants
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,636341,00.html
July 16th, 2009 at 7:14 pm
Constant – Imagine people trying to go to their vets for stem cell treatments!
July 16th, 2009 at 7:16 pm
Cvienne – yeah sorry, I’m missing the decorating, cooking, and neatness parts too. I’m afraid I’m not a very good mo.
July 16th, 2009 at 7:16 pm
@I-Man
Man, it’s tough talking some of you down off the ledge today…
OK…I’m going to have to whip this out early…
http://videos.komando.com/2009/06/18/african-thunderstorm/
TURN UP THE VOLUME…
Relax…
July 16th, 2009 at 7:24 pm
NIH funds a lot of research – and then FDA compliance often stands in the way of bringing it to the people.
Government almost always means well, but the law of unintended consequences applies.
G’night all, tomorrow will be interesting. Just watch the $, nothing else really matters.
If the € breaks 1.42, LB will think about covering. At 1.43 LB will be in the fetal position. Cheers.
July 16th, 2009 at 7:25 pm
Night brothaz-
-I-Man
July 16th, 2009 at 7:28 pm
@cvienne: My wife would be happy with that video clip. She’s a former musical theater actress.
July 16th, 2009 at 7:28 pm
Fear not, bearish folk, this is copied from the other thread:
Corus Bank and Guaranty Bank may fail tomorrow, according to CR. These are larger than the minnows we have seen failing lately. Maybe that’s why Sheila wanted to keep CIT out of her piggy bank.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/07/market-precis-and-more-news.html
As with CIT, there are real institutions who own the debt in these puppies, and these bonds are going to end up as pennies on the $. Coming on the heels of CIT, I’d say this might put a bid into Treasuries tomorrow and Monday. Of course stocks may well continue to go up indefinitely, especially banks, REITs and leaders of Robo Market.
July 16th, 2009 at 7:33 pm
cvienne – neat.
Since we’re sharing inspiration I’ll share one too. I was kind of down yesterday, the economy, the state of the world, our future, what our society has become, etc.
A friend of mine showed me the link below. I’m not really into dance at all, and less so modern dance but this piece is amazing. It made me realize that although all of the above shitty things are true – our culture, our world culture, can still produce something so extraordinarily beautiful. The piece was done in Japan, it’s Ravel’s Balero, an 80 year old song, danced by one of the worlds leading prima ballerina’s in Tokyo, earlier this year.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMnDSErHgQs
July 16th, 2009 at 7:49 pm
@Thor
Thanks…I intend to check it out right now…
It’s amazing…I’ve probably been posting on TBP for only about 2-3 months now, and this is about as CONFUSED as I’ve sensed the collective mood…
I’m trying to lighten it up a bit…I’m not as worried as some may imagine…
Note: I keep a lot of things private, but if anyone of you are on Andy T’s e-mail list, send him a request to see a copy of the e-mail I just sent him with today’s date stamp on it…FWIW…
Peace…
July 16th, 2009 at 7:51 pm
manhattanguy -re: Roubini
He’s just going on averages. Gary Shilling has had a better practical handle on the course of events, e.g. calling no decoupling a the beginning of 2008.
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=video&T=Shilling%20Interview%20on%20Economy%2C%20Labor%20Market%20&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vkb8jLTZDRgs.asf
Here’s one from a month ago:
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=video&T=Gary%20Shilling%20Interview%20on%20U.S.%20Economy%20&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vaAuko.csdUs.asf
The interviews were nice; someone who knows something not being interrupted by an idiot trying to pull a positive statement out of him.
July 16th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
forgot to mention that the first interview was today; second was a month ago.
July 16th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
thor-
good link- pretty powerful
cvienne-
less so- I hate WS story- and pretty much musicals in general- outside of maybe Sweeny Todd- which I was skeptical of- but was rather funny- in a gruesome- cut your head off- kind of way
July 16th, 2009 at 8:07 pm
@ahab
Ok…it’s official…everyone AND THEIR DOG is trashing me on the “cool” link (WSS)…Jeez – I was just trying to talk people down off the ledge if they were getting “stopped out” this week…
a little “sensitivity” going on around here?…Chill people…
@Thor
That was a nice link…THANKS…Many don’t know the athleticism it takes to do a “fouetté rond de jambe”, which she accomplishes TWICE (at slow speed – on balance – which is even harder) in the first three minutes…
Some of the peripheral choreography reminds me of the “opening ceremony” of the Beijing Olympics, which was, TRULY, one of the most spectacular pieces of choreography I’ve ever witnessed…
July 16th, 2009 at 8:10 pm
Cvienne – you know we love you
July 16th, 2009 at 8:13 pm
what’s wrong with getting stopped out?
it is better than at least one of the alternatives
circuit breakers are there for a reason
July 16th, 2009 at 8:21 pm
Thanks Thor…
I just cruised out to WVA and am chillin’ here for the weekend…
Time to harvest the corn…
I got a great “bacon grilled corn’ recipe last week…I’m gonna try that…I’ll keep a few more ears on the vine that way thru Labor Day for picking…The rest I’ll let dry & grind into some meal…then, keep an ample enough supply of seeds for next year’s planting…
I-Man…how’s your corn doin’?
July 16th, 2009 at 8:28 pm
..and,
just to piss half of you off,
got an i-phone yesterday – very nice….
July 16th, 2009 at 8:32 pm
@wes
…let me guess…
it was so that you could ‘twitter’ with the tour de france riders…
July 16th, 2009 at 8:38 pm
Wes doesn’t even know how to work it- but when a hot chick goes by he’ll put it to his hear and say something tech savvy- so the hot babe thinks he’s Mr. Cool
July 16th, 2009 at 8:49 pm
@ahab
It might work
Let’s have some POSITIVITY here tonight gentlemen & ladies…
July 16th, 2009 at 8:49 pm
…ahab, u got my mo…you are too cool, too…dogs and kids work too
July 16th, 2009 at 8:53 pm
FWIW
I just arrived out here on my farm in WVA…
It’s a RED sunset…
sailor’s lore…red skies at night, sailors delight…
…and b4 I start getting ‘lemony’ comments about how far WVA is from the ocean…consider that my ‘ancestry’ is NAVY thru & thru…I spent a pretty good chunk of my time in & around Annapolis…
July 16th, 2009 at 8:54 pm
cv@8:32 -
i missed your comment
but, of course, consultation on my epo dosing for my weekend run around
good tips from those big guys, they really know
July 16th, 2009 at 9:00 pm
@wes
u see now I think that’s something that’s TOTALLY COOL…
karen was talking earlier this week about her son (I think), twittering the TDF riders…
I thought to myself…now THAT’s a reason to twitter…(I could care less about the burrito you’re thinking about eating for lunch)…
July 16th, 2009 at 9:08 pm
cv-
cool
there was a post last night on this topic and i thought that chat was good
apparently LA (Lance, not the city in CA) has been tweeting, and the followers are a big number – where does that slot in the venn diagram from last night?
July 16th, 2009 at 9:17 pm
@All
My MISSION IN LIFE tonight has been to try and talk a few “shorts” down off the ledge…and otherwise, via the exceptionally TRUSTWORTHY conduit of Andy T, try to keep a certain “cool”…
This post LINK turned out to be a bomb…(insultingly)
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/thursday-readings/#comment-194562
unappreciated…yet perhaps WILL BE appreciated over the pass of time…
So…if you require something ANGRIER…Here is my best parry…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKUBTX9kKEo
Happy trading…Remember – I’m on YOUR side here…
July 16th, 2009 at 9:20 pm
….out here in the fields…
….enjoy farmers boy…
i found something that is real…
i don’t need to fight, to prove i’m right
i don’t need to be forgiven….
you are giving away your age…………..
July 16th, 2009 at 9:21 pm
teenage wasteland
July 16th, 2009 at 9:22 pm
we are wasted
July 16th, 2009 at 9:23 pm
@wes
assuming no crash on Bourg-Saint-Maurice
Le Grand-Bornand
& Montélimar > Mont Ventoux
will tell the tale…
July 16th, 2009 at 9:26 pm
oui cv
the itt will give some advantage – probably to LA …but, the two mountain top finishes, and esp. ventoux, will determine the race…
look for fireworks, this should be good….
July 16th, 2009 at 9:27 pm
@wes
I don’t need to fight
To prove I’m right
I don’t need to be forgiven…
Sally, take my hand
We’ll travel south cross land…
Put out the fire
And don’t look past my shoulder.
The exodus is here
The happy ones are near…
Let’s get together
Before we get much older.
July 16th, 2009 at 9:28 pm
Ventoux will absolutely CRATER the unchosen…
July 16th, 2009 at 9:30 pm
…you are livin’ the life
thanks for sharing the who – great album, btw
I understand you better than before…even without the CAPS!
July 16th, 2009 at 9:33 pm
ventoux, is ventoux –
the giant of provence, the moonscape –
toughest climb that the tdf does
July 16th, 2009 at 9:35 pm
Under the heading of “I don’t write the news, I just report it”…
“Goldman Sachs in Talks to Acquire Treasury Department”
http://www.borowitzreport.com
July 16th, 2009 at 9:40 pm
bergsten,
huh?
they need to acquire something they already own?
don’t get it, very strange….giant blood sucking squid wrapped around the face…..sticking its tentacle down…
or something like that, Matt Taibbi said
July 16th, 2009 at 9:44 pm
@wes
VENTOUX
The toughest climb EVER…
It’s time for us TRADERS to feel the same pain this & next week…
we’ll see who has the legs…
July 16th, 2009 at 9:47 pm
BTW
I’m FOND of pain…
I’m more screwed up when I DON’T feel it rather than when I DO…
July 16th, 2009 at 9:48 pm
…feeling it gets you FOCUSED
July 16th, 2009 at 9:57 pm
Good article in the Christian Science monitor on how the foreclosure problem is no longer a 4 state problem..rather, all the neighboring states of the Big 4closure states are getting afflicted by the taint of their neighbor…uhh, that sounded bad… http://features.csmonitor.com/economyrebuild/2009/07/16/us-foreclosure-crisis-spreads-to-new-states/
July 16th, 2009 at 10:06 pm
cv-
my friend, are you a masochist? pain, pain, pain
you, like leftback, goin’ short and gettin’ squezzed in the manly’s
where is the love? there is another way
July 16th, 2009 at 10:27 pm
Who’s Next — “My Wife” is a very underrated song, IMO. (not EMO)
Gonna buy a tank and an aeroplane
When she catches up with me won’t be no time to explain……
July 16th, 2009 at 10:36 pm
My fellow Piltdowns, we’re a gnats eyelash from being blown out of the water. Shouldn’t really be too surprised: these guys blow bubbles for a living. And they’ve repeatedly shown that their skill. Goldman, aka The Evil Empire, has broken out. FDX is on the cusp as are a host of other economically sensitive stocks and sectors. I keep hearing the volume is puny, but its really not that bad. And every H-S that has formed has been summarily smashed. What it looks like is the old ramp-consolidate-ramp with requisite dipsy doo on the end. Its always fascinated me how you get a consolidation and a fast plunge and then ramp right through to a breakout. Usually on that final plunge the bears think they are finally vindicated, only to have the juicy carcass ripped from their jaws with lightening speed. Anyway its set up phat and its all up to the bulls and some really stubborn/S&M loving shorts. There are still a lot of people shorting so any breakout will have their help. Just be ready for the usual 5 years in the wilderness ie looking like a putz, while some hair brained bubble inflates to the size of Jupiter. Make sure to grab some crumbs.
July 16th, 2009 at 10:37 pm
@wes
No my friend…I WELCOME pain…it’s my friend…
per my previous post…I HONOR my committments…943 was my mark…here’s how that played out…
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/foreclosures-rise-9-in-1h-2009/#comment-194385
956 is still in my radar…GOTTA STAY COOL…(AND BESIDES THAT STUPID NUMBER THERE’S A LOT OF OTHER DOLLAR/EURO CRAP THAT HAS TO PLAY OUT)…
but I’m still cool…
If some “insentient” type algorythm – wine drinking – cash flush – trader wants to take me to 1,080 this summer…I’ll say…”Thanks for the ride back to 956 – your KUNG FU is stronger than mine (for now) because you’re a narcissistic COB SHELL that doesn’t care about anything else than your summer glass of wine & your bragging rights”…Thanks for the time spent…let’s draw some lines & WRESTLE ON…
July 16th, 2009 at 10:39 pm
@tanman
Per my last post…
I’ll concur to PLUS the 233 day EMA…
No breakthru…no dice…
July 16th, 2009 at 11:02 pm
cv,
I’ve seen days like today, mostly ‘03-’08. Flopping and chopping most of the day and then a relentless ramp into the close. A real bear killer. Its not like those weird fake jam jobs we’ve been getting for the last few months. This one had some stank on it. Good luck, and just remember my middle name is coin flip. I guess that would be two middle names.
July 16th, 2009 at 11:17 pm
@thetanman
I’m just gonna say this…
BULL markets are not usually full of 2-3% UP days (as we’ve seen MANY, the past 4 months)…
Technically, I have 1,080 still on the table, but I’m wondering when FUNDAMENTALS hold sway…
Perhaps only Lloyd Blankfein knows the answer because WE ALL KNOW…
He’s not the MOST CLEVER out there…just the biggest A**HOLE…
I hope your credit card is GOOD in PARADISE dickwad…
…just for fun I’ll toss Jamie Dimon onto that flea bitten scrapheap…Jamie-just know that you’re not even AS SMART as the biggest A**HOLE on the planet…That ought to make you proud…
…as for Ken Lewis…lol…COME ON!
July 16th, 2009 at 11:17 pm
This from ZH. I gotta tell ya…
(Seemingly genuine) Dept. of the Treasury Request for Proposals to “Provide Humor in the Workplace”
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/paging-ben-dover-to-provide-taxpayer.html?dsq=12797994#comment-12797994
Anybody got Scott Adams’ email address?
July 17th, 2009 at 12:24 am
All the whining here and strutting at CNBC indicates we are getting the requisite sentiment for a plunge. May take another month or so before we get the complacency back.
July 17th, 2009 at 2:03 am
I-Man Says:
July 16th, 2009 at 5:57 pm
“Nothings Shocking”
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
“Nothing’s Shocking” is the title of the seminal album from the band Jane’s Addiction released in 1988. It was a tremendous album that included such works as “Ocean Size” and “Mountain Song.” Unfortunately for the band, they were a bit overshadowed by “Appetite for Destruction” by Guns N’ Roses released the year prior. It was a great two years for serious hard rock fans. Amen.
July 17th, 2009 at 2:36 am
AT, you’re getting me all nostalgic about a bunch of bands from that time. The Clash, Nine Inch Nails, Butthole Surfers, Violent Femmes, Chili Peppers, Siouxsie and the Banshees, oooh oooh Stone Roses!!
July 17th, 2009 at 5:25 pm
@Jdamon33 – If your friend can get 60 cents on the dollar for CIT bonds, he should jump on it, although I doubt he can get that.
Back in early May I rediscovered I had some CIT bonds I had inherited, but had forgotten about. Fortunately it was only $10K, but I was pissed at myself. I had considered selling it in early 2008, but was seduced by the 6.25% yield. In May 2009 I sold for 54 cents on the dollar, and was glad to get that — the going rate the previous month had been about 42 cents.
But constantnormal is right — advise your friends and relatives, and they’ll either ignore you or resent you. Even if they ask for the advice. Especially if things don’t turn out the way you predict.