Wednesday Linkfest
Its Wednesday afternoon — time for a quick linkfest, starting with quite a few surprising headlines:
• Investors Say ‘Tarnished’ Fed Shouldn’t Oversee Systemic Risk (Bloomberg)
• After the storm comes a hard climb (Martin Wolf, FT)
• The Recession is Over (Newsweek)
• Stimulus spending finally starts to trickle down (USA Today)
• Americans’ stress over debt is easing (Associated Press)
• Bair, Bernanke Push to Toughen Plan to Curb Biggest U.S. Banks (Bloomberg)
• Rental Market: the New Inflation Fighter (WSJ)
• How Obama wants to transform your finances (CNN/Money)
• Google lab work bubbles over (GMSV)
• What Your Favorite Social Network Says About You (Advertising Age)
• Man’s Debit Card Charged $23 Quadrillion, $15 Overdraft Fee (WMUR New Hampshire)
There is a double dose of me media hidden in the list (sorry) –
Anything else fresh and linkworthy?
July 15th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
In response to (and in concert with?) the Newsweek link above …
When Will The Recovery Begin? Never. (Robert Reich’s blog)
And this from bloomberg …
Mobius Says Derivatives, Stimulus to Spark New Crisis
July 15th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
Dude is suddenly $23,000,000,000,000,015 in debt (if I counted my zeros correctly). Bummer.
July 15th, 2009 at 3:51 pm
The bubble is back. Take Intel. They beat lowball estimates …good for them. But earnings are down from .28 to .18.
If the whole S&P had earnings fall the same percentage, op earnings would be $11…they are expected to be $14.15. So if all companies are as “good” as Intel, you will have a massive miss.
July 15th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
This from the Financial Times article linked above:
If the exit into vigorous recovery seems still so uncertain, has the world at least been learning the right lessons for future management of the world economy? I believe not. The financial sector that is emerging from the crisis is even more riddled with moral hazard than the one that went into it. Its fundamental weaknesses are not yet redressed. Questions also remain about the working of the dollar-based international monetary system, the right targets for monetary policy, the management of global capital flows, the vulnerability of emerging economies, demonstrated in central and eastern Europe, and, not least, the financial fragility demonstrated so often and so painfully over the past three decades.
~that financial sector that is “more riddled with moral hazard than the one that went into it” isn’t the same one that Goldie made gold from, was it? Same old socialized risks and privatized profits. No moral hazard here. Please move along.
July 15th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
If the recession ends but nobody can tell without looking at the GDP that barely registers positive, does it really matter? And it certainly doesn’t mean
And by the way, the NBER can call the start of a recession based on employment, as they did this one. Can they not also call the end of the recession based on same (instead of a postive GDP print)? And wouldn’t this be the best case to actually do that if it’s never been done before? (which I’m not sure of, but don’t think has ever happened)
The point is that saying that the recession is over is very premature. And even if it is based on a positive GDP print that comes from an inventory cycle bounce, if it’s not sustainable, it isn’t very meaningful. Even to the stock market. Although the market clearly rallies based on it, but not in a durable way (i.e. we’re bound to at least test the bottom, if history is at all a guide).
July 15th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
@ Marcus Aurelius — Visa programming oops — google “17-digit credit card error”, happening all over the place.
July 15th, 2009 at 4:24 pm
Interesting quote, Barry (in the USA Today article Re recovery). I noted that the GOP is still calling for a Tax Cut for the Rich to stimulate job creation. We had the mother of all tax cuts in the Bush Tax Cut for the Rich, and as many have pointed out, the early 21st century “recovery” was completely devoid of new job creation. Nobody got a job because of the Bush Tax Cut for the Rich; all we got for it was more income disparity and (I argue) the worst economic crisis in 80 years.
Insanity is defined as doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome. So why do some people seem to think that another Tax Cut for the Rich would produce a different than it did last time?
July 15th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
@MA:
Awesome quote from the guy:
“I thought my card had been compromised. I thought somebody had bought Europe with my credit card,” Muszynski said. “It was very concerning.”
July 15th, 2009 at 4:32 pm
Franklin:
You are not allowed to procreate and spread your DNA in the general gene pool.
July 15th, 2009 at 4:38 pm
FYI Barry, the Globe and Mail in Canada made reference to you today regarding CIT.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/washington-faces-cit-bailout-dilemma/article1218282/
July 15th, 2009 at 4:41 pm
@Bruce in Tn, you’re overestimating the power of your own DNA. Your DNA is more similar to mice than franklin. Fortunately your mitochondrial DNA will never enter the genetic pool. Yours will be extinct.
July 15th, 2009 at 4:49 pm
Correct super. As you know, only female mitochondrial DNA is passed on….unpolluted…
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE56759420090708
U.S. food stamp tally up 1.2 million in two months
U.S. food stamp enrollment in recent months:
April – 33.758 million
March – 33.157 million
February – 32.556 million
January – 32.205 million
December 2008 – 31.784 million
November 2008 – 31.097 million
October 2008 – 31.050 million
One in every nine Americans…
July 15th, 2009 at 4:50 pm
Robert Reich
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
The House: Tax the Wealthy to Keep Everyone Healthy
It’s the most blatant form of Robin-Hood economics ever proposed. The universal health care bill reported by the House yesterday pays for the health insurance of the 20 percent of Americans who need help affording it with a surtax on the richest 1 percent.
http://robertreich.blogspot.com/2009/07/house-tax-wealthy-to-keep-everyone.html
July 15th, 2009 at 4:53 pm
@Transor Z
“… bought Europe with my credit card … ”
people are SO innumerate these days … 23 quadrillion is sufficient to buy the solar system.
July 15th, 2009 at 4:56 pm
@Jojo — now stop right THERE with the health care stuff. This is a civilized place and we don’t cotton to no discussions of religion or health care.
July 15th, 2009 at 4:57 pm
@ Jojo, if you make more than $350k you’ll have to pay a whole 1% extre or more in taxes. Maybe they will apply the same principle to save SS or medicare and we might get back to the marginal tax rates that existed under Clinton.
July 15th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
more links …
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-consumer-debt-2009-7
http://business.theatlantic.com/2009/07/exclusive_interview_what_is_shadow_banking_and_how_did_it_fail.php
~~~
BR: We mentioned the second link in yesterday’s linkage
July 15th, 2009 at 5:07 pm
@Super:
Before you go any further…look at your post of 4:57….now do you really believe that factoid you just posted? If you do, ok…but do you really believe it?
I’ll check later…home from the office going to run…(M/W/F/S)…
July 15th, 2009 at 5:07 pm
Has anybody beside me noticed that we have a plan for “universal health INSURANCE” not “universal health CARE”? Seems like a good time to form a health insurance company. Or even better, a health insurance payment collection intermediary.
July 15th, 2009 at 5:10 pm
WHO warns swine flu ‘unstoppable’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8130196.stm
From what I understand, this strain of the flu produces mild symptoms, but the danger is if it mutates. I think this is an undercovered story.
July 15th, 2009 at 5:11 pm
@constantnormal:
I’ve got a solar system I’m happy to sell you for a lot less. I’ll give you mining rights to Io for just $500k. I’ll need that in cash, though, and I’ll tell you where to drop it so you can pick up the paperwork.
July 15th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
Better story:
New Swine Flu Study Raises Alarming Historical Parallels
http://www.findingdulcinea.com/news/health/2009/july/New-Swine-Flu-Study-Raises-Alarming-Historical-Parallels.html
July 15th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
@ Transor Z — Does that include the earth? And are they exclusive rights? If I can get a clear title and the closing costs are not too much, we might just have a deal.
July 15th, 2009 at 5:20 pm
@Transor Z — but if it’s “out of town”, never mind. I’m still waiting for the hyperspace bypass to arrive in these parts. As I understand things, the Vogon constructors have yet to receive their stimulus checks.
July 15th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
The appointees to the Congressional Financial Crisis Commission were announced today. It’s modeled after the Pecora Commission, which many here have called for.
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200907151600DOWJONESDJONLINE000817_FORTUNE5.htm
July 15th, 2009 at 5:27 pm
@ Bruce in Tn– ‘U.S. food stamp tally up 1.2 million in two months ‘
Glad I’m not doing casework anymore. Can’t imagine what those caseloads look like (the number of households per worker). Most caseworkers qualify for FS, which indicates what they make.
As I mentioned the other day, I don’t subscribe to the WSJ anymore. Did anyone read the article above? And if so was the reference to the title; that since we have such a housing glut and that rental costs have plummeted, this combination significantly impacted the recently released core CPI figure and that’s the reason that figure was in line (or so low)?
July 15th, 2009 at 5:28 pm
@constantnormal:
I have no direct knowledge of any construction permit filed by the Vogons. But since you asked about earth, yes, I’ll sell you all rights from 0713.23 GMT 31 Aug 2009 for . . . $35?
July 15th, 2009 at 5:28 pm
@TZ but even Io is a heckuva deal for only $500K, if only one had a way to get products back here. One could set up a very nice geothermal (iothermal?) powerplant to power mass drivers to hurl refined products back to the markets here, allowing for a bit more in the way of development expenses. I’m not sure what I could refine, but I’m certain there is a lot more than $500K worth of something out there.
If I had a good way to travel back and forth, it would make a perfect place to establish a resort complex — and with such a view! I think I’d call it “The Big Picture Lounge”. That might be the best use for such a property.
How much for Titan?
July 15th, 2009 at 5:32 pm
I know I’ve seen the “(vividly shown by this graph)” graph here before…
http://www.rgemonitor.com/globalmacro-monitor/257282/why_has_the_worst_recession_since_the_1930s_had_such_a_mild_effect_on_america
July 15th, 2009 at 5:43 pm
@F411 re: the new Pecora commission.
Looking at the appointees, the only one that stands a ghost of a chance of successfully replicating that earlier effort is Brooksley Born, and as Ferdinand Pecora was the fourth counsel that attempted to get to the bottom of things in the 1930’s I think it unlikely that we will succeed in the first time at bat.
We probably have to go through several failed whitewashes and have the population chomping at the bit to throw legislators out after a decade of suffering under near-20% U6 unemployment, before any serious inquiry will be permitted.
But I’d be happy to be persuaded that this is a serious effort. Unfortunately, as mentioned, the lineup (with the notable exception of Brooksley Born) is pretty lackluster and seems to be intended for use as sandbags rather than active investigators.
July 15th, 2009 at 5:45 pm
Rising Saving Rate Does Not Signal Renewed Consumer Retrenchment
http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/index.html
…other things that are wrong in the common “wisdom:”
Real estate must “come back” for the economy to grow
Buy and hold is dead
The US doesn’t produce anything so stimulus won’t help
China is dumping dollars
The Fed’s balance sheet is exploding
Big banks are the problem (Canada had big banks and they were OK.)
Repealing Glass-Steagall was the problem (the rest of the world has combined banks, bancassurance)
Goldman Sachs is front-running everyone (a Zero Hedge special)
Jim Simon’s Renaissance Technologies is a ponzi scheme (another Zero Hedge special)
Obama is a Socialist (Bush is: TSA, Prescription Drug Benefit, AIG, autos, banks, Fannie, Freddie)
A head and shoulder’s top means we’re going down…
July 15th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1536912520090715
“UPDATE 1-US officials fear CIT situation has worsened-source”
July 15th, 2009 at 5:51 pm
constant @ 5:43 – ” . . . . .We probably have to go through several failed whitewashes . . .”
Sure is looking that way isn’t it? I don’t think Franklin really understands what a lot of us are getting at on here – rather than doom and gloom – many of us are under the impression that things aren’t really going to change substantially unless it get’s a lot worse. We (the fed) borrow our way out of this crisis without and massive changes in how the rules are play, or who’s even allowed to play, we’re going to be right back here again in no time. . . .
July 15th, 2009 at 5:52 pm
@EAR 5:32 pm
Very nice. I wonder if the existence of social support programs will ultimately serve to extend the duration of the downturn (I guess I can’t say “recession” because apparently the recession is over), with some sort of karmic calculus integrating the unpleasantness over time until a sufficient accumulation of aggregated pain is achieved.
If that is the case, this downturn might be still on-going in 2030 … but the stock markets will have hit new highs, and the thousand or so people who have 99.999% of the national wealth will be wondering what all the talk is about the “downturn”, presided over by President Phil Gramm, who lashes out at the teeming masses of whiners on a daily basis.
July 15th, 2009 at 5:52 pm
@constantnormal, Peter Wallison Co-Director for Financial Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute will promote the idea that Fannie and Freddie are the culprits of the subprime fiasco.
July 15th, 2009 at 6:00 pm
“Des Moines city leaders say they intend to fight the spread of homeless camps amid reports that more have popped up along the Des Moines and Raccoon rivers.
Officials worry that a failure to enforce city regulations and improve outreach efforts toward the homeless could lead to more problems with safety, health and sanitation.
“If we don’t do something to address this now, some of those problems are going to be more and more common,” Assistant City Manager Chris Johansen said.
As economic conditions have worsened, the number of homeless in rural and suburban shelters nationally has jumped by nearly 10 percent, according to a U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development report released this month.
“We can lead the discussion, but we’re not the sole solution,” Mayor Frank Cownie said at a City Council workshop Monday. “We might need some support from our neighboring communities.”
City officials estimate about 175 people live in homeless camps in the metro area. The residents account for a small percentage of the metro area’s overall homeless population – estimated at 1,000 to 1,500 – but they are often among the most difficult to help…”
in Des Moines, Iowa
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20090714/NEWS/907140373/1001
July 15th, 2009 at 6:01 pm
Barry, keep this on your radar screen, it is in the nature of viruses to mutate, especially in mobile populations. Despite advances in virology and public health, this could be a Black Swan by the winter in less developed nations.
http://www.nature.com/news/2009/090713/full/news.2009.680.html
July 15th, 2009 at 6:05 pm
LB – Interesting, I have a good friend who lives in Buenos Aires and was just asking him about this – they are getting hit pretty hard with SF this winter but so far they’ve only lost about 20 people to it, much less than they do in a normal flu season. Of course if it mutates by winter here . . . . .
July 15th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
“Obama’s Science Czar: Traditional family is obsolete, punish large families
By: David Freddoso
Commentary Staff Writer
07/15/09 9:05 AM EDT
President Obama’s Science Czar, John Holdren, took a controversial and amoral approach to the science of population by recommending mass compulsory sterilization and even forced abortion (and/or forced marriages) under certain circumstances. His 1977 tome, Ecoscience, which he co-authored with Paul and Anne Ehrlich, also displays a revealing disregard for the institution of the traditional human family.
Holdren and the Ehrlichs write:
Radical changes in family structure and relationships are inevitable, whether population control is instituted or not. Inaction, attended by a steady deterioration in living conditions for the poor majority, will bring changes everywhere that no one could consider beneficial. Thus, it is beside the point to object to population-control measures simply on the grounds that they might change the social structure or family relationships.
Holdren, with a blithe “of course,” encourages government to wage an effective war on the family in America. It begins with the abolition of “pronatalist” policies and continues with their complete reversal:
As United States taxpayers know, income tax laws have long implicitly encouraged marriage and childbearing…Such a pronatalist bias of course is no longer appropriate. In countries that are affluent enough for the majority of citizens to pay taxes, tax laws could be adjusted to favor (instead of penalize) single people, working wives, and small families. Other tax measures might also include high marriage fees, taxes on luxury baby goods and toys, and removal of family allowances where they exist. Other possibilities include the limitation of maternal or educational benefits to two children per family….”
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/More-Holdren-Traditional-family-is-obsolete-50807107.html
July 15th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
constantnormal…
Maybe they should create a ” Train America to Swim for Energy Independence” program…
http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2009/07/14/14greenwire-exxon-sinks-600m-into-algae-based-biofuels-in-33562.html
Picture Forty-niners with snorkels on.
July 15th, 2009 at 6:16 pm
Black Swan pile on…
http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2009/The-Upcoming-Wheat-Crisis-GRU-DBA-SYT-JJG0702.aspx
This and possible Swine Flu mutation/fall resurgence are potential game changers of the highest order.
Or maybe they’re threatening because the have the internet to tell us they are.
Of course, I pray for the latter.
July 15th, 2009 at 6:17 pm
okay- I’ll ask again- chances of the following-
GOOG reports worse than expected tomorrow or BTE?
CIT- FDIC backed bonds, forced marriage or BK?
I had an inkling that GOOG this morning when it was up about $8 would still finish higher due to folks playing the GOOG announcement tomorrow(actual-$13.5)- had to run to my office and missed my window- but at least my thinking is back on track-
predictions?
July 15th, 2009 at 6:25 pm
@ahab — just a guess — GOOG soars (based on Gannett squeezing out a profit with some hint of improved ad performance). CIT gets FDIC money, in order to keep from hurting PIMCO.
July 15th, 2009 at 6:41 pm
GOOG BTE
CIT BOUGHT BY JPM FOR .01s on $
FDIC EATS BAD DEBT
FED LAUNDERS MORE $ THROUGH AIG
GS IS FULLY HEDGED
July 15th, 2009 at 6:46 pm
constant-
check this headline out-
“CIT Talks Fall Apart; Bankruptcy May Loom”
I am with you though- I think the USG is most likely to come to the rescue – but- maybe- they the USG will let CIT fail- orderly liquidation- to set a new precedent
re Gannet profit- quote “With less money coming in, McLean, Va.-based Gannett has been cutting costs relentlessly during the past year”-
re GOOG- I don’t know- advertising is a tough biz right now- but maybe companies have switched to pay per click type advertising and away from print media
July 15th, 2009 at 6:48 pm
Marj, I guess he was just trying to match what the US attempted to do in the early 1900s. course back then they thought we would have a population problem. but that isn’t how its worked out. instead as countries gets more advanced the population ‘explosion’ slows until it almost goes in reverse.
July 15th, 2009 at 6:48 pm
Would like to see what everyone’s reaction is to getting off of Goldman Sach’s back: (that has to get you fired up?!?)
http://www.nakedhedgefund.com/finance/stock-fundamentals/get-off-goldman-sachs-case/
July 15th, 2009 at 6:58 pm
nakedhedge-
I will never bet against banks again- now that I know the USG will print money and prop up as necessary- moral hazard- puleasse- we now have de facto- implicitly guaranteed- all the TBTF banks- a la the old Freddie/Fannie model-
great to be a bank- even better that you can borrow at almost no cost- and even better than that- is to have a rich Uncle to bail you out of all your stupid fucking high risk big return strategies that didn’t pan out-
all the small folk can only look forward to Uncle Sam’s food stamp stipend
July 15th, 2009 at 7:00 pm
@ahab 6:46 pm
“… maybe companies have switched to pay per click type advertising and away from print media …”
maybe, the trends are looking that way …
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-craigslist-vs-newspaper-2009-6
don’t get flummoxed by the dual scales, the intent is to highlight the relative trends — people are fleeing expensive print ads for cheaper web ads, and if Gannett is seeing any hint of better (or even less-bad-than-expected) ad revenue, then Google should be doing quite well.
“… Chief Financial Officer Gracia C. Martore, who is serving as the principal executive while Chairman and Chief Executive Craig Dubow is on medical leave, noted that the company’s second-quarter ad revenue from its beleaguered publishing business compared more favorably with last year than its first-quarter results.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124766122280144895.html
July 15th, 2009 at 7:09 pm
http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/14/news/economy/health_care_reform/index.htm?postversion=2009071507
Tax the rich to pay for … everything?
“We don’t have enough rich people. We could tax the wealthy to extraordinary levels. But we cannot afford everything we want,” said Ken Kies, a former director of the Joint Committee on Taxation and currently a tax lobbyist for businesses including insurers.”
July 15th, 2009 at 7:10 pm
CNBC’s site reporting CIT bailout talks broken off
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31926789
Any other info?
If this is true, I’ll really kick myself for not dipping into the ultrashort ETF’s today.
July 15th, 2009 at 7:13 pm
MEH-
dude- I pretty much agree with the idea that the USG should not make a stand one way or the other regarding size of families- and what I mean- is that there should be no policy promoting “no children” and also no policies that promote children-
get rid of the child deduction, get rid of the home interest deductions, be neutral as far as peoples choices re families- this coming from a single father w/ 3 kids and a mortgage (almost paid off though)-
that’s the libertarian side of me coming out
July 15th, 2009 at 7:21 pm
M in Nola-
if CIT files for BK and GOOG reports big tomorrow- will be interesting to see how the market reacts
constant-
advertising on craigslist is free- that’s always a big plus- definitely see your point
July 15th, 2009 at 7:24 pm
Ahab – aren’t unemployment claims coming tomorrow as well?
July 15th, 2009 at 7:25 pm
thor-
you are correct sir
July 15th, 2009 at 7:25 pm
CIT may be in trouble with their bail out from the govt. We may see the inverse of today in the markets if that goes to hell. Bloody interesting times we live in.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/15/AR2009071503305.html?hpid=moreheadlines
July 15th, 2009 at 7:28 pm
Great article -
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/americans-looking-to-bonds-to-stash-away-savings
Item that stands out – There has been a growing gap between in what foreign investors have been willing to buy and the pace of issuance. It’s been “filled largely by a rise in demand for Treasurys from U.S. households.
I’ve been wondering where a some of that 7% savings rate was going
July 15th, 2009 at 7:28 pm
Great clip on program trading
http://watch.bnn.ca/clip193943#clip193943
July 15th, 2009 at 7:29 pm
For those complaining about the Fed, just found this on FT Alphaville about what the ECB has been doing. The ECB has been taking all kinds of crap as collateral for loans just like the TALF. The scale is something else. This is from a statement issued by Trichet:
“2. The second building block of our new liquidity management approach is the list of assets that we take as collateral. This list was already very long before the crisis. We have enlarged it further and now accept an even wider range of securities as collateral.
Government securities account for less than half of the nominal value of the securities on the list. The rest are private securities. By contrast with many other central banks, the ECB already accepted private paper before the crisis. In this sense, we were fairly well prepared for the crisis, as we had a relatively “modern” collateral framework. As a consequence, the total value of these eligible securities is currently €12.2 trillion, equivalent to 130% of the GDP of the euro area. This very broad range of eligible collateral has considerably eased banks’ liquidity constraints during the crisis.
“
July 15th, 2009 at 7:36 pm
m in nola-
global- massive liquidity being provided to stave off economic collapse- maybe there is something to the idea that the $ will have to go up- in that devaluation will occur global wide- it comes down to which currency is the least shaky
July 15th, 2009 at 7:43 pm
Tyler Durden sure has a quick mind. In his ZH post about CIT being hung out to dry, he points to why:
How many billion in CDS was Goldman long CIT?
July 15th, 2009 at 7:45 pm
Quick mind or Meth addict? Take your pick
July 15th, 2009 at 7:46 pm
Microsoft to open retail stores! Gawd, I hope this will not be an Apple store “killer”. What are they gonna sell there? Zunes?
July 15th, 2009 at 7:54 pm
@ B in T 7:09 pm
“Tax the rich to pay for … everything?”
After the middle class has been eviscerated, who else is left to be taxed?
It is only after the system suffers a complete breakdown that something new can arise.
July 15th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
greg: old news. stupid idea. Although, Zune software seems a bit better thaniTunes.
Did you make money on your calls? Was speculating that it was you pushing up the market so they would be good.
July 15th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
@greg 7:46 pm
And you can just guess what will take the place of the Genius Bar …
July 15th, 2009 at 8:01 pm
I stand in dumb amazement that CIT is apparently going to go splat. I admit that Tyler’s suspicions (he can’t actually know, can he?) about a large GS CDS position have the right aroma about them. And there’s political mileage in it as well, ’cause the fine upstanding politicians can point to this as PROOF that they operate an honest gaming house and are not being manipulated by the banksters.
July 15th, 2009 at 8:01 pm
this is almost laughable-
“The U.S. Treasury said the government has a “high threshold” for giving assistance to companies, after CIT Group Inc., a commercial lender running short of cash, said a bailout was unlikely.”
what am I saying- I am laughing- so it is laughable- “high threshold”- hahahahaha
July 15th, 2009 at 8:03 pm
market up 200 points- just like GM BK- reason-
getting rid of the deadwood will accelerate the recovery-
I am cracking myself up- hahahahahaha
July 15th, 2009 at 8:10 pm
Mike-
Zune software better than itunes? Sometimes I think you just say things like that to hurt me. Did make some on the calls, but not me pushing it up, not enough firepower. Still got some room to run, if you want in. Should come close to $160 in the next two weeks
Constantnormal-
Uncle Festers’ Professors?
July 15th, 2009 at 8:14 pm
@greg
July 15th, 2009 at 8:30 pm
Within a week…
3 2-3% up days…followed by afterhours CIT news…I point you to the following…
posts from July 8th…
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/art-cashin-on-secular-cycles/#comment-191112
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/art-cashin-on-secular-cycles/#comment-191116
…and my last words…it’s still two days until Friday…
There’s still plenty of CLOWNING AROUND left to do!
July 15th, 2009 at 8:38 pm
@ call me ahab,
1st Im glad that your keeping your name instead of Ishmael
2nd I agree with you on the banks perfect situation of privatization of profit and socialization of debt, but what could be the “black swan” on the horizon? commercial real estate…. defaulting credit cards …? They don’t seem to have the destructive power or the ability to catch the banks by surprise this time around.
July 15th, 2009 at 8:41 pm
@NHF
“but what could be the “black swan” on the horizon?”
That’s just the thing…Nobody ever sees a black swan coming…
…or in fact, the black swan could be something that everyone sees, yet discounts as a non-starter, until it’s NOT…
July 15th, 2009 at 8:46 pm
Am I the only one that is excited to see CIT go under and then see at +300k in the birth-death adjustment?
July 15th, 2009 at 8:49 pm
cvienne… thats definitely a good point. But a lot of people saw the mortgage meltdown coming. Another possibility is the upcoming resets on Alt-A s and Option “pick a payment” loans.
And Im definitely not saying that the banks are ready for another hit or marking their so called assets such as CMBSs (Commercial Monrtgage Backed Securities ) , but does anyone have some links to info on what kind of numbers they have on the books… so that I don’t need to dig all night?
July 15th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
For whoever it was that said they couldn’t read the WSJ article because you didn’t subscribe. Use this little trick. Go to the article, copy the headline and put it into Google, then click on the link that comes up for that article. It will take you to the full text, without a subscription. Nice little trick that I learned from someone right here on TBP.
I don’t know if it works with other search engines. I haven’t tried it.
July 15th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
cvienne Says:
@NHF
“but what could be the “black swan” on the horizon?”
That’s just the thing…Nobody ever sees a black swan coming…
__________
That ain’t a swan, it’s a big black chicken (it’s bigger than your house), and we all know it’s coming home to roost.
July 15th, 2009 at 8:52 pm
My favorite part of the Ad Age social networks link:
“Contrary to what some might think, people who spurn social media aren’t tech haters. In fact, they spend as much time as social-media fans surfing the web. But they say they don’t use social media for three basic reasons: They don’t have the time, they don’t think it’s secure or they think it’s stupid. While the first two groups — which Anderson labels “time-starved” and “concerned” — may be swayed to join eventually, don’t hold out much hope for the last group: 94% said they will never use social media.”
I spend a couple hours everyday online, and I”m in all 3 of those groups who won’t use social networks. Especially the last group. Social networking is stupid. The biggest time-waster since slack-jawed compulsive television watching was invented.
July 15th, 2009 at 8:58 pm
naked-
dude- I don’t see a black swan- I see 16% unemployment in 1980’s metrics- I see no industry that is going to pop right back and employ the unemployed- I see jobless recovery- I see anemic recovery for years- I see the markets finally understanding that it’s not coming back- that this is-
as good as it gets- and the air will come out of the stock market when the light bulb goes on and all those geniuses understand that the little folk have no $$$ to enable their phony lives-
can’t happen soon enough
July 15th, 2009 at 8:59 pm
social networking = losers trying to find out how many of the “still available” high school guys or chicks that they were afraid to talk to might be available for casual sex…
July 15th, 2009 at 9:03 pm
@ahab
I see NO RECOVERY AT ALL…
I see continued spending in an attempt to foster a recover not working, plunging us into greater debt, and when everyone realizes China is not going to be a growth engine, the whole system IMPLODES…
I mean, COME ON…It’s only July…probably one hurricane in about a month would toss this country into the abyss…If it happens to bear down on NYC…fuhgeddaboutit!
July 15th, 2009 at 9:08 pm
cvienne-
dude- recovery only means no negative GDP- so if it is .2% yearly growth- that equals the new economy- limping along dragging the unemployed along sucking on the government equivalent of morphine-
food stamps
July 15th, 2009 at 9:15 pm
ahab
I agree. It doesn’t take a Black Swan to take this market down, or some big shocking event, as some people argue. It’s just the full weight of the situation finally settling in to the crowd that is in denial; that will make it sink under it’s own sudden, very heavy, weight. When that will happen is a whole other question.
July 15th, 2009 at 9:18 pm
cvienne
Naw, a big ole honking hurricane would cause lots of destruction and force us to spend to rebuild. That would undoubtedly add to GDP, so it’s good! Right?
That just shows the weakness in using GDP to measure the economic health of the nation. I don’t know another good single metric, but GDP does not tell the whole story, by a long shot.
July 15th, 2009 at 9:25 pm
I’m wondering if the thinking in allowing CIT to fail — today — was in the consideration of JPM earnings arriving tomorrow in a GS-like blowout, and perhaps some analysis that indicates the odds of collateral damage being manageable? If only JPM were to have announced earnings the same day as AAPL — then they could sink something a lot larger the night before and still generate enough buying enthusiasm to mitigate the downside move.
And if they manage the CIT failure the way they ought to do, having a flock of banksters quickly move in and hoover up CIT’s business so as not to inconvenience its customers, then we might not see all that much of a down move over the next couple of days.
After all, if the goal is to convince the sheeple that the path forward is upward and onward, they can;t be allowing any really scary descents along the way.
July 15th, 2009 at 9:31 pm
constant-
good analysis- I missed JPM for tomorrow- might be the best time to let CIT hit the skids- assuming that the USG knows what JPM will report-
hmm- sounds a bit illegal- but probable
July 15th, 2009 at 9:36 pm
A bit illegal! lol
we don’ need no steenking rulez …
July 15th, 2009 at 9:49 pm
Schiff is running for the Senate:
http://news.goldseek.com/EuroCapital/1247724120.php
July 15th, 2009 at 9:55 pm
@call me ahab,
thats a good point about the unemployment… consumer is king
July 15th, 2009 at 10:01 pm
just announced 7.9% GDP growth YoY coming out of china for Q2.
July 15th, 2009 at 10:12 pm
Pat G.-
good catch
he alluded to this possibility earlier this year
chance of success =< Ron Paul?
July 15th, 2009 at 10:17 pm
@ben22
GDP = C + I + G + (X − M)
let me guess…the C and the (X – M) were marginal…
but the I + G were huge…
July 15th, 2009 at 10:19 pm
cvienne,
I haven’t seen any of the details, just saw the number real quick on bloomberg
July 15th, 2009 at 10:24 pm
just my “paper napkin” speculation my friend…
I’m not much in to PRINT these days…I’m kinda tryin’ to just “feel it”…
Ya know?
July 15th, 2009 at 10:26 pm
Something to add to the linkfest
Israeli warships passing Suez canal towards the Red Sea closer to Iran
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article6715412.ece
Let’s see what impact (if any) will haev on Oil prices for the rest of the week.
July 15th, 2009 at 10:28 pm
b22
as reported in the bloomberg article-
“The nation risks bubbles in stocks and property after money supply grew by a record and inflows of cash pushed foreign-exchange reserves to more than $2 trillion.”
everyone is on the same page- it’s the illusion of wealth that is desired- not actual wealth- China has the most to lose in the new global paradigm-
they are just passing time until the USA resumes its never ending desire to buy unnecessary discretionary items made in China-
if it doesn’t happen soon- well then – they may have a problem
July 15th, 2009 at 10:33 pm
I can’t agree with removing child care credits from income taxes .. the family unit is a business worthy of correct deductions .. besides population growth is the only thing that keeps capitalism climbing the ladder .. short of that flesh and material waste of war with the divy up that follows … further on population growth – I do believe there is a limit to mouths to feed with available land and water* .. on that track I rented Ideocracy (later it played on cable) and there is some truth in too generous of social programs
… and on CIT my poke r table comment was not meant as a time to stop now .. just a slam about A pile getting jazzed isn’t fair
coda* – us human are not the only creatures that matter to God (imo) .. and I sent that message out once or twice for his/her/its attention
July 15th, 2009 at 11:59 pm
yo, greg. Thought you might like this:
Microsoft: Apple wanted ‘Laptop Hunters’ ad pulled
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-10288022-37.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-20
Ladyboy Jobs can dish it out, but can’t take it
July 16th, 2009 at 10:41 am
these ‘linkfests’ are great. keep it all up
July 21st, 2009 at 1:36 pm
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