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35 Responses to “July 4th Weekend Linkfest!”

1. the bohemian Says:
   July 5th, 2009 at 10:32 am

   re “good life survey”-

   I love Costa Rica- and it may deserve to be on top of the list, however-

   Hong Kong @ 84th and the US @ 114th?

   I don’t remember Hong Kong being full of open green space nor full of ascetic do-gooders and Bangladesh at 31- hmm . . . impoverished- no? And China @ 20- pulease- talk about environmental degradation- and then Haiti @ 42- hmm . . . wow . . . guess I should move there . . . and Burma @ 39 – dictatorship- no?

   Wow- it appears that to beat out the whole western world a country need only be blissfully impoverished and/or oppressed- save a few that seem to have it all together.

2. deanscamaro Says:
   July 5th, 2009 at 10:38 am

   Just a first observation while scanning the headlines:
   Rising debt may be next crisis
   Without going into the article, is that just a joke? Since when is debt not a part of THIS crisis?

3. Bruce in Tn Says:
   July 5th, 2009 at 10:44 am

   I will have to take today off to cure myself from the last two days of taking time off….did too much…

   I have been thinking this morning about that old saw, The trend is your friend.

   What is the trend here?
   1 Greater personal savings…rapidly
   2Unemployment increasing..not bottoming
   3Any entitiy that has to balance ingo with outgo is hurting…families, communities, counties, states
   4As noted on other web sites and blogs more so that TBP…restuarants, hotels, airlines, sports events, etc. all are hurting, and no “bottom” seems in place.
   5Graduates have poor job prospects…even butterbar lawyers are being paid not to start…
   6Lowest numbers of hours worked since records have been kept…33.0 and decreasing.
   7Appeals on property valuations for tax purposes have jumped 10 fold..and increasing.
   8Private sector job creation has lagged hugely the creation and costs of public sector jobs…and there is increasing inability to fund this segment of our workforce.
   9National government and the cost of national government is increasing…rapidly
   10There is a significant movement toward more simple and less costly living…

4. KC Says:
   July 5th, 2009 at 10:56 am

   THANK YOU, BARRY!!! I have missed these

5. Onlooker from Troy Says:
   July 5th, 2009 at 11:04 am

   Bruce

   I love the “butterbar” lawyer reference. I’ll bet it flies over the head of the great majority though. Is that terminology used in the law field or did you transfer it yourself? Just wondering as it’s interesting to see how language usage evolves.

   Sure glad I got a head start on 1 & 10. It will make this whole thing a lot less painful for this family.

6. Onlooker from Troy Says:
   July 5th, 2009 at 11:09 am

   I just love headlines like this one that we’re seeing lately:

   http://www.marketwatch.com/story/second-half-recovery-suddenly-not-a-sure-thing?siteid=yahoomy

   Hoocoodanode?

   Of course it makes me wonder about ones like this:

   http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bleak-earnings-season-shines-light-on-outlooks

   But then market buyers haven’t been too demanding and picky about what they’re buying. And I’d guess they’re likely to be rather fickle if the “promises” that the likes of Brian Wesbury have been making don’t pan out.

7. Onlooker from Troy Says:
   July 5th, 2009 at 11:15 am

   If the Republican Party is weaker without Palin, what does that tell you? I sure hope she fades away quickly, after cashing in on her fleeting moment as much as she can I’m sure. There’ll no doubt be a book forthcoming about this “inspiring political story”, or some such rot.

   The R party really needs to find new direction; away from the likes of Palin. And finding somebody who has a bit more intellectual heft might help. But maybe not, based on recent history.

8. willid3 Says:
   July 5th, 2009 at 11:17 am

   i saw this on CR.
   http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/07/fdic-bank-closure-from-acquirers.html

   it sort of explains why the FDIC isn’t going to be able to deal with the TBTF banks. they won’t be able to find buyers who can make that sort of decision in a week. or be able to come in and take over one of these monsters. maybe it would be better to just up the regulatory regime when they get that big to the point they act more like utilities. and we really need to do some thing about the ratings agencies. cause if they had rated the junk MBS so high the banks wouldn’t have bought them

9. Bruce in Tn Says:
   July 5th, 2009 at 12:07 pm

   Newbie lieutenants, back in the day, were called butterbars….

10. Onlooker from Troy Says:
    July 5th, 2009 at 1:38 pm

    Bruce

    Yep, that’s exactly it. Still are, I believe. I’m not that far removed from that world.

    Just wondering if that was indeed the direct reference you were using or if it had taken on it’s own life in another segment of society without anybody even currently knowing where it came from, which is a not uncommon phenomena, and a fascinating one.

11. BSNEATH Says:
    July 5th, 2009 at 1:42 pm

    Michael Lewis: The Man Who Crashed the World (Vanity Fair) More on the AIG FP debacle comes to light

    It always circles back to Goldman Sachs, doesn’t it.

12. willid3 Says:
    July 5th, 2009 at 2:06 pm

    other signs of economic decline
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/07/offices-rising-vacancies-falling-rents.html

    having lived in SOCAL before, this is almost unheard of

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/07/apartment-rents-decline-in-los-angeles.html

    and its not a good sign for the smaller banks either. they may have avoided the retail RE boom(bomb), but they did avoid the other boom(bomb)

    i think O and company thought it wasn’t as bad as it is, mainly because main stream economists said it wasn’t so bad (of course this is the same bunch that said it wasn’t going south either). and they still were trying to do what had become main stream, but was failing. it also what they could get through Congress who was (and still is) living in the last 8 years.

    of that 800 billion stimulus. the vast majority was tax cuts. which seem to have not done more that slow the pace of decline.
    the actual spending on infrastructure hasn’t happened yet

13. Onlooker from Troy Says:
    July 5th, 2009 at 2:18 pm

    willid3

    Yep, the stimulus tax cuts are largely going to repair household balance sheets or bulk up those that aren’t necessarily in tatters. The ironic thing is that many who aren’t even in terrible economic condition are saving more because of the fear of future tax raises due to the huge borrowing being done for “stimulus.”

    So we’re borrowing from the future so that people can save that money to pay future taxes to pay off the borrowing we’re doing. Brilliant. It’s like me taking out a loan so that I can afford to pay that loan off in the future. Huh??

    Instead we have to face the brutal facts and write down debt across the spectrum with those who’ve risked money taking losses. No other way to fix this.

14. wunsacon Says:
    July 5th, 2009 at 2:30 pm

    >> I sure hope she fades away quickly, after cashing in on her fleeting moment as much as she can I’m sure.

    I click on every link I can about Palin. She’s more entertaining than Britney Spears. What will she do or say next? What would comedians and the Democratic Party do without her? Even the libertarian party stands to benefit.

    She’s a gift!

15. willid3 Says:
    July 5th, 2009 at 2:48 pm

    I think Mohamed El-Erian has hit the nil on the head. just what are we (the US) going to do next? since the days of high finance and leverage and easy credit are over for now. add on the the additional head wind of much much lower consumption as US consumers relearn old lessons (from the GD). just what is going to drive the economy now? all of the previous standard bearers (technology, plastics, oil) are gone. the only things that are still going are health care and education, but neither of them can drive the economy, and they will soon enough face head winds of their own (think medical vacations to LCC, or outsourcing education to LCC via the internet).
    thats the trillion trillion dollar question. and as of yet we have no answer.
    if we don’t find one, expect to have a lot of changes in ways that many will not like. protectionism will be just the first one and the lowest impact one

16. Mike in Nola Says:
    July 5th, 2009 at 3:30 pm

    Just on for a minute. That’s quite a pile of links.Will take awhile.

    Willid3: The story about the FDIC shows that we really need a new Resolution Trust Corporation, either independent or as part of the FDIC which can take on those cases that cannot be resolved quickly. Those are probably easy to identify. The RTC did a very good job and saved us a lot of money by not having to stage fire sales as I’m sure the FDIC does.

    Got two links to pass along myself.

    If this one is true, it signals the end of the commodity bubble and a big leg down. All the credible stories about the Chinese “recovery” point to the creation of commodity and real estate bubbles there in place of real recovery, much like Easy Al’s prescription at the turn of the century (weird sounding in that context). The Chinese banks are being told to lend like there is no tomorrow and the loans in large part are going into speculation in real estate and commodities, since there are few good business uses for the money after the collapse of exports.
    http://business.smh.com.au/business/china-signals-end-of-stockpiling-20090629-d2i9.html

    This other is nostalgic: Ralph Nader writing about how right Ross Perot was about NAFTA, GM and other things. And he was. I still remember his proposal for a $1.00/gallon gasoline tax to pay off the national debt. It would have also encouraged fuel efficiency. Of course, the usual anti-tax furor erupted, but it would have solved a lot of problems. Instead we launched into the era of the SUV and sending all our money over to fund terrorism. The good old days when all three candidates for president were left handers: a superior breed.
    http://nader.org/index.php?/archives/2127-Ignoring-Propethic-Predictors.html

17. Christopher Says:
    July 5th, 2009 at 4:56 pm

    What is the trend here?
    1 Greater personal savings…rapidly
    I think this is bullish for gold/silver/safes/home security/firearms/trained dogs/alarm companies.

    2Unemployment increasing..not bottoming
    More general suffering/homelessness = crime up
    Bullish for Cheap Stuff…MCD is first to mind

    3Any entitiy that has to balance ingo with outgo is hurting…families, communities, counties, states
    Who’s going to be the first to BK?? Cali?? MI?? I think there have already been some bond defaults local levels- Bearish for State Capitol Towns ie. Sacramento, Albany, etc…

    4As noted on other web sites and blogs more so that TBP…restuarants, hotels, airlines, sports events, etc. all are hurting, and no “bottom” seems in place.
    Bullish for storage space, auction companies, Hopefully kills this nation’s idiotic obsession with massmedia driven sports…one can only hope.

    5Graduates have poor job prospects…even butterbar lawyers are being paid not to start…
    Butterbars…heh….Probably one of the best fields a young college grad could get into right now is get a commission. I’m trying talk my daughter and all her cousins into considering academy/military options…USN/CoastGuard/USMaritime Academy…

    6Lowest numbers of hours worked since records have been kept…33.0 and decreasing.
    Bearish for OIL

    7Appeals on property valuations for tax purposes have jumped 10 fold..and increasing.
    Is there a RE/BK lawyer in the house??

    8Private sector job creation has lagged hugely the creation and costs of public sector jobs…and there is increasing inability to fund this segment of our workforce.
    Until this starts to improve….nothing will get any better…more gov is not the answer

    9National government and the cost of national government is increasing…rapidly
    WTF is Ross Perot with those charts??!! Batsh!t crazy yes….but I’d take Ross in a heartbeat right now…..or how about a Goldwater?? WTF is up with political ideological bullshit?? Why are the smart guys always shoved to the back of the room??

    10There is a significant movement toward more simple and less costly living…
    Oh yeah….my household is on a three year plan to be completely free of any debt or contractual obligations. We’ve always been savers…but now it’s serious. Still not sure what we’re going to do then….but at least we’ll have options. I’m hoping the economy can maybe hold together for at least three more years….kicking the can as it were…but it doesn’t look good to me honestly.

    I hope you and yours have a nice Independence Day weekend.

18. Onlooker from Troy Says:
    July 5th, 2009 at 7:03 pm

    Ah yes, if we’d have taken some of the remedies of Ross Perot we’d certainly be better off now. At least some of the attitude. But alas, this nation mocked and derided him, because we all knew better and we could have it all with no sacrifices to be made. Besides he was/is a funny looking little man with a funny voice, and we all know that superficial judgments about people based on attractiveness and charm are the much better way to assess people; or is that con men? Hmmm.

19. willid3 Says:
    July 5th, 2009 at 7:55 pm

    new plans?
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31711461/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/

20. Mark E Hoffer Says:
    July 5th, 2009 at 8:01 pm

    “While the Cat is Away, the Mice will be at Play..”

    BR,

    just a note, MSFT’s IE script editor telles an IE-user, when ’script editing’ is /not/ disabled, that your site is full of script defects/coding errors..

    I’m sure you’re paying full fare to your ‘web-developers’, they might care to pay attention to the work that they’re producing..

    Past that, hope you, and yours, had a good time on the g’island..good time of year to take a break, the second-half is guaranteed to curl, even more, hairs..

21. vachon Says:
    July 5th, 2009 at 8:06 pm

    Ok, I’m confused. I’m half way through your book and have just finished the chapter on mortgage securitization and the quest for higher yields. On the one hand, you say that historically interest rates played a small roll in the decision to buy a home. Steady, secure employment and good wages were the predominant criteria. However, after describing the need for fund managers to pursue higher yields due to the Fed lowering rates, you say explicitly that mortgage rates are vastly important to the decision to buy a home.

    I understand that sub-prime was a direct response to securitization and the global demand for AAA rated junk yields. But I’m inclined to agree with your first statement that interest rates alone does not explain the public’s clamor for mortgages. As a back office worker for 10 years at a real estate title company in Florida, it was instead the lure of a McMansion for what on the surface seemed to be the the mortgage equivalent of a Big Mac with cheese. (Needless to say, my company is no longer in business).

    Did I read your book incorrectly or were you stating that the criteria had changed?

22. thetanman Says:
    July 5th, 2009 at 8:23 pm

    Mike,

    Three people selected at random have a 0.3% of all being leftys. So something else must be at work. Must be that leftys are indeed special people.

23. thetanman Says:
    July 5th, 2009 at 8:25 pm

    I just realized two of the three were Bush Sr. and Clinton. Special takes on a whole new meaning.

24. willid3 Says:
    July 5th, 2009 at 8:28 pm

    not sure that sub-prime was a response to securitization (its been around a long time, and it has worked well for the most part). in this case it appears that a lot of mortgage issuers used it as method to make money on loan fees, and to duck responsibility for their contracts (they basically wrote contracts they knew would fail, and sold them ASAP to avoid the loss that was inevitable). if any thing securitization allowed this fraud to be more wide spread and easier to accomplish. but the rating agencies were major contributors as they rated these bogus securities as AAA when they were any thing but. if they hadn’t, the banks would have been unlikely to have ever bought them. and the investment banks were major players in this. they pushed these loans again with help of the rating agencies.

25. Mike in Nola Says:
    July 5th, 2009 at 9:08 pm

    thetanman:

    Lefties used to have a big advantage in tennis, e.g. Rod Laver, supposedly because the other players didn’t get to play lefties all the time. Haven’t kept up with tennis for awhile. Since it has become more about high velocity serves, that may not longer be important.

    My observation in the law practice was that there were an unusual number of lefties who were sole practitioners. Must be something in the personality.

26. Mike in Nola Says:
    July 5th, 2009 at 9:39 pm

    the tanman;

    Looks like I’ll stop bragging. Looks like Obama and McCain are lefties.

    http://www.anythingleft-handed.co.uk/presidents.html

27. Christopher Says:
    July 5th, 2009 at 10:19 pm

    I’m not 100% on this….but I think Hank Paulson is a lefty also….

    Seriously??

    Clinton, Bush, McCain, Obama….all lefties??

    I smell a constitutional amendment…

28. thetanman Says:
    July 5th, 2009 at 10:20 pm

    Mike,

    Ouch!

    Leftys have the advantage in Baseball too. In the early years there were almost no lefties (the most famous Ty Cobb and Joe Jackson) and then came Gehrig and Ruth. Young players saw what an advantage batting left handed was. Left handed pitchers were different too. For some reason most junk pitchers were left handed, and the right handed pitchers were much more conventional. It may have been that in a mostly right league, left handed pitchers were much more into velocity deception. A strong stereotype developed of the not quite all there southpaw.

29. Mike in Nola Says:
    July 5th, 2009 at 10:28 pm

    thetanman:

    Maybe the Illuminati are all left handed.

    I never could bat left. Think I learned just by watching and the only ones around me were righties.

30. Mannwich Says:
    July 5th, 2009 at 10:41 pm

    PPT had better get warmed up. Looking ugly in Asia and U.S. futures looking shaky. Since I sold my SRS and FAZ on Friday, I’m really rooting for an up day tomorrow and/or Tuesday so that I can get in again, which means I probably won’t get it!

31. matt Says:
    July 5th, 2009 at 11:16 pm

    @Mike in Nola:

    Ross Perot’s $1 gas tax proposal wouldn’t have helped pay down the deficit at all. We both know what would have happened.

    Congressman #1: Look at all of this extra money pouring in. Let’s start some more social programs.
    Congressman #2: Perot will probably veto the bill.
    Congressman #1: Are you kidding me? Not only do we have a two thirds majority, we have a 100 percent majority – that is, 100 percent of us like to vote entitlements to our constituents so we can stay in office destroying this country forever (and making more than 3 times the median income doing it).

32. Andy T Says:
    July 5th, 2009 at 11:26 pm

    “Haven’t kept up with tennis for awhile. Since it has become more about high velocity serves, that may not longer be important.”

    No doubt. Anyone who saw wimbledon saw a display of high velocity serves and what becomes of a match when such a thing occurs. It was a terrific match because it was a display of human endurance, strength, intensity, etc….but it was no McEnroe/Borg circa 1980….that was a slugfest today.

    I came away disappointed because today, I thought Roddick was the better tennis player, but Federer somehow outlasted him. If they played again in two weeks, I would bet on Roddick.

33. Mike in Nola Says:
    July 5th, 2009 at 11:47 pm

    Andy T:

    Saw the last dozen or so games while getting a burger at Culver’s in the Woodlands. Agree with your assessment. Guess no one charges the net any more. Out of curiousity, I looked up leftie tennis stars and it seems that day is past:
    Laver, Connors, McEnroe, Navratilova and Renee Richards.

34. tradeking13 Says:
    July 6th, 2009 at 12:41 am

    Megan Fox is a hermit? That is so hot.

35. matt Says:
    July 6th, 2009 at 9:06 am

    @tradeking13:

    She’s not a hermit. She’s a computer generated:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXsd5aw8oas

    see