One of our longstanding complaints has been that the traditionally reported measure of Unemployment, U3, dramatically under-reports unemployment in America. It is far too narrow and ignores too many people that want to work full time, but cannot.

We have detailed this over the years, and last summer, modestly proposed the media begin reporting U6, the broadest measure of joblessness. (see Previously, below)

So you can imagine our pleasure when yet another MSM gets hip to this. In the rpesent instance, it is the New York Times, Part-Time Workers Mask Unemployment Woes:

In California and a handful of other states, one out of every five people who would like to be working full time is not now doing so.

It is a startling sign of the pain that the Great Recession is inflicting, and it is largely missed by the official, oft-repeated statistics on unemployment. The national unemployment rate has risen to 9.5 percent, the highest level in more than a quarter-century. Yet it still excludes all those who have given up looking for a job and those part-time workers who want to be working full time.

Include them — as the Labor Department does when calculating its broadest measure of the job market — and the rate reached 23.5 percent in Oregon this spring, according to a New York Times analysis of state-by-state data. It was 21.5 percent in both Michigan and Rhode Island and 20.3 percent in California. In Tennessee, Nevada and several other states that have relied heavily on manufacturing or housing, the rate was just under 20 percent this spring and may have since surpassed it.

Of course, we also know from history that unemployment will continue to rise, even after the recession is officially over (so we got that going for us, which is nice).

Surprisng to see Oregon with the worst Unemployment in the nation — I would have guessed Michigan.

>

Click for interactive graphic

broad-ue-u6

>

>

Previously:
A Closer Look at Unemployment (September 2007)

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2007/09/a-closer-look-at-unemployment/

Unemployment Reporting: A Modest Proposal (U3 + U6) (June 2008)

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/06/unemployment-reporting-a-modest-proposal-u3-u6/

Pervasive Pollyannas of Prosperity (July 2008)

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/07/pervasive-pollyannas-of-prosperity/

NFP: Even Worse Than Reported (December 8th, 2008)

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/nfp-even-worse-than-reported/

Persons “Marginally Attached to the Labor Force” (July 4th, 2008)

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/07/persons-marginally-attached-to-the-labor-force/

Source:
Part-Time Workers Mask Unemployment Woes
DAVID LEONHARDT
NYT, July 14, 2009

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/15/business/economy/15leonhardt.html

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

286 Responses to “Yes, Unemployment Is Worse Than Reported”

  1. cvienne says:

    Hey karen…

    The guy got that VISA charge when he swiped his card for gas, so maybe you should look into oil prices again :-)…

  2. manhattanguy says:

    @cvienne: It’s just a prelude to how your credit card bill will look like in the future after inflation kicks-in :) Zimbabwe style.

  3. ben22 says:

    @Pat G,

    Yep, all valid arguments and heard all that before.

    People love to site golds price action over the last 2 years as some sort of promise of what is to come. People held on to gold longest with this thesis of inflation as it was the last commodity that appeared to “hold up” but the reality is, when credit deflation really started to take hold last year, it came down just like everything else, the people that say things like “it held up better than oil” as an example, might want to remind themselves that it is most likely it held up better than many other commodities because it never went up as high as the others did! Using GLD as the measure, the ror is negative over the trailing 12 months by about 4%. The last 12 months should have been a gold bugs dream come true but you haven’t made any money there.

    As for using government data like the CPI or PPI to get a good read coming inflation, or to rule out credit deflation, well… it’s your money not mine.

    do you really believe we can once again expand credit at an even greater rate than we already have? I suppose it’s possible, Japan, after all, kept expanding credit for years after 1989. I just don’t find that to be very probable.

  4. Andy T says:

    I’m short at 920 today. I’m running a stop at 933. Market vigorously testing the 61.8% retrace at 923, which it is prone to do. Trading isn’t that easy, so everyone who sold in front of 923, 61.8%, must feel pressure first….very powerful move here, so being short feels quite uncomfortable, but as long as one controls risk you will always live to fight another day. It’s all about risk v. reward. Best. AT

  5. Pat G. says:

    @ Mike in Nola

    No thanks, already own my home. But homes are an asset class. Not money. The type of inflation here is that which comes with everyday purchases….

  6. karen says:

    Mike, housing (the structure) is with rare exception a depreciating asset… the appreciation is in the land. The land (real estate) bubble reached stratospheric heights and popped… it as an asset class will not be re-inflated for years to come, regardless of the inflation/deflation debate.

    Pat G., agree with you 100% on gold when you say, “Gold has maintained its price Y-O-Y while India has decreased its imports by 55% Y-O-Y through the half way point. Somebody is buying it. And the only reason that would be, is as a hedge against inflation.”

  7. cvienne says:

    @manhattanguy

    If inflation really does kick in Zimbabwe style, I wonder how happy those urbanite folks living on food stamps in the inner city are going to appreciate the fact that it only buys them a slice or two of bread…

  8. manhattanguy says:

    I have a great play for inflation. VIPSX. That’s where I have most of my 401k money is at.

  9. karen says:

    cvienne, he was buying cigarettes at the gas station. you look again : )

  10. Andy T says:

    And of course, as is always the case, other major markets are also on a precipice. Euro is right into critical resistance and Yen is heading for critical support. Energy’s a head case and should be disregarded for the time being as the government changes the rule during the middle of the game.

  11. cvienne says:

    Gold is also the ARMAGEDDON trade…(which is why I own the bullion)…

    I’d say a number of gold “holders” here (perhaps I speak only for myself), aren’t holding for the inflation hedge (although that is likely to occur at some point down the road)…

  12. cvienne says:

    @karen

    and THAT, my lady is why you’re a better trader than me…

    details…details…details…fine eye :-)

  13. call me ahab says:

    AT-

    re your short position- what do you think of the idea that GOOG may get some late day action in anticipation of tomorrow’s earnings announcement- thereby giving tech stocks a late day push-

    opinions?

  14. leftback says:

    TLT support just below here, at 92.36… did the guys with that VISA bill go to SCORES by any chance?

  15. cvienne says:

    UUP has been sitting on 12.62 for the better part of 3 hours now…

  16. Andy T says:

    ahab. Wish I could wax philosophically about the prospects of GOOG juicing an index, but I don’t really follow individual issues. Sometimes the best question to ask is: “What’s the most difficult trade to make right now?” It’s normally the correct the trade…. That stated, keep some risk controls in place on whatever you do….good luck.

  17. cvienne says:

    23.62…I got distracted by looking at the time…

  18. Pat G. says:

    @ben22–”it came down just like everything else, the people that say things like “it held up better than oil” While gold is lumped into the commodity basket, comparing oil prices to gold is like comparing GM share prices to IBM.

    “it came down just like everything else,” “The last 12 months should have been a gold bugs dream come true but you haven’t made any money there.” Because of deleveraging.

    “Using GLD as the measure, the ror is negative over the trailing 12 months by about 4%.” And what about the ror on any stocks within the DOW 30?

    “As for using government data like the CPI or PPI to get a good read coming inflation” Yep, we know those numbers are bogus. So what do you use?

    “do you really believe we can once again expand credit at an even greater rate than we already have?”
    Absolutely!! In a nation of debtors, living in the largest debtor nation, the last thing that the USG wants is deflation. They are working overtime to create inflation because it suites the purpose of the USG and its people better. You’ve heard the arguement “don’t fight the FED”, right?

  19. cvienne says:

    @LB

    I’m looking at that 50% line around 92.15…

    What I’d like to see though would be for the dollar to break down and complete that 5 wave (since March) that ben was talking about…Hopefully the TLT would act in tandem and a great entry point would be achieved…

  20. Mannwich says:

    @Pat G: Me-thinks the massive global deleveraging going on is far bigger and more powerful than the Fed. I, for one, don’t want to fight that. I think the Fed is far less omnipotent than you seem to state.

  21. Mike in Nola says:

    Not going to get into a debate about what inflation/deflation is. Some say simply an increase/decrease in the money supply. Some say it’s related to velocity.

    Only know that I can buy a lot more with my $’s today than I could a year ago before others lost theirs: food, a house, car, etc.

  22. leftback says:

    @cv: I am already long Treasuries, 5s and 10s, but am looking to exit a leveraged short of the long bond here.

  23. [...] report just out that unemployment is higher than the government is reporting; here is the link. In some states, “one out of every five people who would like to be working full time is not [...]

  24. Pat G. says:

    Karen and Cvienne, thanks for your support.

  25. Mike in Nola says:

    Pat G.

    Don’t think the question is one susceptible of a vote :) I may be right. You may be right.

    Will see in time who was right.

  26. Pat G. says:

    @ Manny

    Remember, “the massive global deleveraging” is being fought by the massive global QE process. What’s left when the battle is won, are countries who have exploded their monetary base which is what led to the inflation in the the ’70s. With the current unemployment rate, this will be stagflation revisited.

  27. cvienne says:

    @Pat G

    To be clear…I own the bullion for the LONG RUN…

    basically I’m saying that I don’t see 1000+ for at least a year out, possibly more…

  28. karen says:

    manhattanguy, $gold has outperformed your vipsx since it’s inception in 2000… although, i imagine, gold and miners are components in that fund..

  29. DL says:

    Mannwich @ 12:48

    When it comes to the stock market, and commodities, I think that the Fed and the ECB are quite powerful.

    (That’s not to say, however, that the SPX can’t test the 775 level within the next few months).

  30. cvienne says:

    Last word on GOLD…

    I will say that it’s flagging an impressive base at 900 (which started in early ’08 and could last clear until 2011 – 2012)…But when it eventually leaves that base for the next base camp up, I’m sure the move will be impressive…

    I just don’t think it’s going to be tomorrow…

  31. Pat G. says:

    @cvienne

    I’m in it for the long run as well. But I think $1000 is possible…this year.

    @Mike

    I could be wrong but I see all roads (internally & internationally) leading to inflation. And you are right, only time will tell.

  32. Greg0658 says:

    Troy @11:56am http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/yes-unemployment-is-worse-than-reported/#comment-193688
    what if your at a poke r table and an opponent can click his finger and an associate arrives and provides more chips for him .. you get upset and get up from the table sliding your remaining chips into your bucket .. until the house sets hands on your shoulders and says “not so fast .. your in to the end”

    ps – can gold (or a real close simblance) be created yet by other mechanisms?

  33. manhattanguy says:

    “$gold has outperformed your vipsx since it’s inception in 2000… although, i imagine, gold and miners are components in that fund..”

    That doesn’t mean I was holding VIPSX since 2000, does it? Added VIPSX just a few months ago. I don’t think gold will cross 1000 this year.

  34. Mannwich says:

    @Pat G: Fair point but I believe what we are seeing has never happened before on this scale. Unchartered waters.

  35. leftback says:

    “With the current unemployment rate, this will be stagflation revisited.”
    Correct, the only unknown is the timing, my friend.

    “I could be wrong but I see all roads (internally & internationally) leading to inflation.”
    Yes, but we have to have another massive crash before the politicians can sell another stimulus package to us.

    “Bing is a bust”
    No kidding – and as someone on TV said “Twitter is the Macarena of the Internet..” True dat.

  36. DL says:

    Mannwich,

    “Uncharted waters”, yes.

    But not just for us investors. The Fed doesn’t know the consequences of its own actions either.

  37. Mannwich says:

    @Pat G: I do think many of us here (including myself) believe we WILL see inflation AT SOME POINT. The question is when. I don’t think that time is now but, as Mike says, nobody really knows for sure.

  38. call me ahab says:

    manhattenguy-

    I actually prefer Bing- switched all my computers to using it as the search engine- nice clean design

  39. karen says:

    Jeff! the question isn’t WHEN, but WEN! shame on me for almost skipping macro man today:

    Unfortunately, in an act reminiscent of Gordon Brown Stalin, the early 90′s data has been wiped from the historical record. A cynic might suggest that this is because China’s leadership doesn’t want to remind people that one upon a time, money growth was this high and it didn’t end well. Judge for yourselves.

    In any event, it’s looking increasingly like the “miraculous” recovery in Chinese growth and equities is simply the result of cranking the ol’ printing presses 24/7. While this seems highly likely to end in a banking crisis, hey- at least Voldy has plenty of FX reserves with which to recapitalize the banking system.

    In the meantime, Macro Man is left pondering; given the complaints from the Chinese and others about economic management in the US and elsewhere, where are the moans about the true world champion of money-printing, Helicopter Wen?

  40. Mike in Nola says:

    manhattan guy:

    What kind of article would you expect from a guy who wrote this?

    The Life And Awesomeness Of Steve Jobs
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dan-frommer/the-life-and-awesomeness_b_220510.html

    BTW, found it easily with Bing which can sometimes be better for pinpoint searches or shopping for a tech product as opposed to needle in a haystack searches. Bing didn’t even offer to sell him to me :) That .4% increase in market share was worth a a good bit more than the advertising, so it’s still a worthwhile investment.

  41. CapitalistCanuck says:

    The only inflation I can envision is through a devaluation in USD – which is unlikely to happen – must be nice to hold the worlds reserve currency ;) Otherwise with credit collapsing, debt overloading and high unemployment, deflation is the bigger concern. The FED has printed what 2 trillion? Last I read the crises has caused 11 trillion in loses.

  42. manhattanguy says:

    If you ask me, Microsoft should rather invest in Google or Apple shares than trying out all these “me too” business ideas. At least they have a better chance of making money there :)

    Google share of search engine market is still above 78%. No chance it is coming down anytime soon.

  43. Pat G. says:

    @ Manny

    Uncharted perhaps but not unpredictable. As to the inflation trade, I’m “in” early which has always been my tendency when investing. Now, it’s off to the gym on the other side of the house.

  44. cvienne says:

    There is the ultimate PUT under the gold market…

    “Cash 4 Gold” recently upped it’s buyback budget to $200,000,000…

    Goodnight, sleep tight, don’t let the gold bugs bite!

  45. leftback says:

    Canuck is right. The printing is merely an offset that has prevented a catastrophe. So far.

  46. Mike in Nola says:

    karen:

    Agree with that about China. It will be the focal point of the bigger collapse down the road. The money propping up the current commodity bubble is coming from Chinese speculators with access to cheap loans just like GS. Once that slows sufficiently, commodities will fall again. That is part of my deflation thesis. Just a quesiton of how long it will take to pop.

  47. ben22 says:

    Pat G,

    I’m sure you’ve seen my posts, you are here a lot, and I’ve already answered all the questions in your 12:45 response. I used oil as an example to compare to gold, what would you prefer, platinum? Same story. Because of deleverging gold fell? Are we levering back up? Did I miss that?

    I don’t know what you are trying to say with the whole, what about the DOW 30 compared to GLD? It’s exactly what I said above, stocks, because of credit expansion, have gone up far higher than gold, so they fell more than gold during credit deflation, what else is there to say? Aren’t we right back to what you just said was an apples to oranges comparison?

    As for what I use to measure inflation, I described the deflationary cycle above, if you don’t think that is going on all around us right at this moment we don’t live in the same place. It’s the best way I know how to measure it and companies keep repeating that cycle, which is why unemployment continues to climb as well as hours and wages getting cut. Have you read any of the earnings reports, it’s all about cost cutting. I got an e-mail just yesterday for a sales rep client that was grossing over $450k per year letting me know his sales comm’s were getting cut in half. Bonus? Not unless you work at GS.

    All I can say to this is:

    You’ve heard the arguement “don’t fight the FED”, right?

    LOL. Are you aware of the fallacy of depending on Fed schemes as a basis for market analysis?

    Seriously, what can you say they have accomplished at this point other than displaying how they are masters of reaction?

    As for the reason why we can expand credit, because that’s what we do, well, I hope you can come up with something better than that. The inflation that has occured over the last 75 years is because of credit, not cash. I’m curious, if you are so confident we can just continue massive expansion of credit, how high to you think it can go and which people do you know that want to lever up their personal balance sheet right now? You do realize that it is impossible to do that forever right? Eventually the payments on the debt load would become literally impossible to service.

    Money is roughly $2t in real cash and $50t in credit, so this is another reason why I’m not afraid to fight the Fed, as if they have printed enough.

    Not trying to be rude Pat, clearly I’m pretty hardcore on the deflation side and I’ve got to argue it out being in the minority camp there. Good luck to you man.

  48. Onlooker from Troy says:

    Ah, what will we do some day when we can’t argue the inflation/deflation issue? :) Or will that day ever come?

  49. Mike in Nola says:

    manhattan guy:

    Shorting Google would be a better play. P/E(ttm) is 31. Stock is probably heading back to the 240′s in the fall.

    Some have made the point that Google is now imitating MS with the ambitions about an OS. Android hasn’t exactly set the world on fire. Actually, any new OS from Google will be more of a threat to AAPL, because it will provide a lower cost alternative to the “anything but Windows” crowd.

  50. karen says:

    Just checked on the $wlsh… on the 3 year weekly chart, it came within 12 pts of the 50 dma.. about where it turned down in June, right under that line… keep an eye on it! not sure if the link will work but here goes:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WLSH&id=p45236901427&def=N&listNum=1

  51. ben22 says:

    @Pat G,

    I do agree that at some point we will have inflation, clearly though, I don’t think that is anywhere near today.

  52. cvienne says:

    @OT

    “what will we do some day when we can’t argue the inflation/deflation issue?”

    As long as we’re not TWITTERING the argument, I’m fine…

  53. karen says:

    Onlooker, speak for yourself, smiling. I don’t argue the inflation/deflation issue.. do you argue with people that prefer vanilla to chocolate? lol.

  54. Onlooker from Troy says:

    karen

    No, I don’t want to argue it either. It’s come to be like arguing religion. :)

  55. karen says:

    cvienne, my son is having a blast on twitter with the tour riders, btw. he’s also on some financial twitters.. TMI for me..

  56. manhattanguy says:

    “Google is now imitating MS with the ambitions about an OS”
    The announced OS was for Netbooks. MSFT has long dominated the OS market and Windows is such a crappy product. I welcome more competition in this space especially from better innovators such as Google.

    “Android hasn’t exactly set the world on fire”
    Wrong. Android is slowly eating up Windows Mobile and Rimm’s lunch. It’s the first true open source platform for Mobile devices.

    As far as the Google being a short candidate. No arguments there.

  57. leftback says:

    Mistress, would you be vanilla or chocolate? Inquiring minds need to know.

    LB prefers vanilla (deflation) with warm slightly bitter chocolate sauce (TARP/stimulus cash) drizzled on top.

  58. ben22 says:

    Well, I guess I’m also in the vanilla camp.

    karen,

    is that your son that took the CFA exam? How did he do?

    I’ve still never been to twitter or facebook and I don’t feel like I’ve missed anything either.

  59. cvienne says:

    @karen

    Now that actually does sound kind of cool (talking to tour riders)…I bet Wes Schott would be into that…

    …as for arguing INFLATION/DEFLATION?

    my stance is that I really only enjoy arguing with people who argue about INFLATION/DEFLATION :-)

    chiaro? va bene…andiamo avanti…

  60. call me ahab says:

    “Google share of search engine market is still above 78%. No chance it is coming down anytime soon”

    I think there is animosity building towards Google- entirely too much information regurgitated back to you in advertising- and that they scan your emails- well that kinda sucks doesn’t it- and that they now advertise on the bottom of youtube clips- that pretty much sucks too-

    SBUX was cool until it was everywhere- and that’s when people start looking for something different

  61. cvienne says:

    @ahab

    SBUX was cool until everyone realized how silly it was to take out a HELOC on your house to keep your mocha frappuccino habit alive…

    Now it’s like WTF? Most just want them to stay open because maybe they’re hiring!

  62. manhattanguy says:

    MSFT is more of a closer comparison to SBUX than Google is. Google’s text ads are not as intrusive as the banner ads that you see on most MSFT sites even though MSFT did copy Google’s text ad idea and use it on some pages. Microsoft copying someone’s idea…oh no surprise there.

  63. karen says:

    ben, good question, but you have to have a job for two years before taking part 2 of the exam, apparently.. i’ll check with him and see if he even passed part 1… driving to the test that day in June, he was wondering what good the designation would be anyway… he thinks he fell prey to a marketing scheme… that test is big business, you know.

  64. leftback says:

    Gold closing close to $940. A short-term top??

    Manhattan guy: good call on oil today. Got buddies at the NYMEX?

  65. cvienne says:

    @LB

    Didn’t we close at 906 or something yesterday?

    We’re closing in on your (up 3% day), which would take us to 933…That was about the point of Andy T’s MAX PAIN…

    It’s never easy is it? :-)

  66. karen says:

    ben, where would i be without text?! test results come in at the end of the month and he thot the social media graphic was hilarious… oh, yeah, and he had to rub in that he made a FORTUNE w/20k worth of GS calls (monopoly money from thinkorswim.com)… now let me see what he has to say about GOOG.. i know already, tho.. he’s been telling me to buy for two weeks? maybe..

  67. Thor says:

    Hey Karen – have your property taxes gone down at all down there in OC? Mine have gone down quite a bit the last two years but my partner out in Riverside County isn’t so lucky. They reduce the value of his home but then jack up the value of the land so that his property taxes have stayed the same . . . .

  68. ben22 says:

    Karen,

    I do know as I’m dealing with CFP exams. Costs some money that’s for sure. I didn’t know that about part 2 of the exam thoughon the CFA. Same sort of deal with the CFP, you can pass the test but if you aren’t in biz for at least three years you can’t use the designation.

  69. Mannwich says:

    Quite a pump today. Very impressive. Reminds me of last summer. Then The Fall hit in the fall. Same thing going to play out this year.

  70. ben22 says:

    Karen,

    pretty cool you can talk to your son about trades. He’d probably be better off in the end learning from you than passing exams, but CFA is a major accomplishment, it takes a lot of study and work to pass it.

  71. Mike in Nola says:

    Obviously no sense arguing religion in the form of inflation or computers. So, I quit.

    Now, what about SKF again? Too scared of the SEC?

  72. Mannwich says:

    @Mike: For what it’s worth, I’m not going near SKF or FAZ right now. Tough to short a sector that can lie about its financial condition with impunity.

  73. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    Karen,

    our office now employees he voice recognition system and I am dictating this note to you over it. I see that you like text but with the system like this I can we not progress? K. you can see that it only makes about 3 mistakes per symptoms and of only been using it about 3 weeks and still have a lot of training to do with it.

  74. leftback says:

    Fascinating day. Agree that one can play anything but FAZ. There seem to be “values” in SRS, FXP, etc..

    See you at the close.

  75. manhattanguy says:

    “Manhattan guy: good call on oil today. Got buddies at the NYMEX?”

    Ha I wish:) Thanks, but it’s just purely a technical call. I think Asian markets will push it up a little tomorrow, say around 63?

  76. karen says:

    ben, here’s his GS and Goog take: “both are so well positioned for the next few years. they have every competitive advantage.. But I know you don’t trade on that kind of horizon.” darling son. In an earlier text he said: “Goog is a buy I’ve been saying that. Even bigger buy if earnings disappoint and the price dips but I don’t see that … Strategically they are going to rule computers 4 years out.”

    ah, Ahab, now you know who introduced me to NVDA.. I’ve been trading it off and on this year.. sticking with it now.

  77. ben22 says:

    Why would you mess with banks on the short side with JPM tom?

    That seems like a very high risk trade and what could the reward be exactly?

  78. ben22 says:

    karen,

    I bought some goog for my mom not too long ago, she’s made some decent money but I was already thinking about selling, lol.

  79. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    Voice recognition systems take a long time to train…Karen

  80. karen says:

    Thor, just got my new property tax statement. they raised me the standard 2%.

  81. karen says:

    Bruce, very interesting! thanks for the trial : )

  82. leftback says:

    Cold steel time….

  83. CapitalistCanuck says:

    Anyone else concerned about volume, we have 2 hours left and not even 50% avg volume on SPY.

    Also, I could be looking at the oil inventories report with some bias, but oil inventories down and gas/distillates up. Looks to me like refiners assumed demand would be up for gas/distillates this summer and moved oil to a different part of the supply chain. They would have been wrong!

  84. I-Man says:

    Here’s a question…

    Why is the VIX in rally mode with the markets up 2.5% across the board?

  85. leftback says:

    Op ex on Friday…

  86. ben22 says:

    @CC,

    I was just looking at volume and thought the same thing

    @I-man,

    some have talked about a 16 week cycle in the vix that has been in place since the 10/07 peak and it was set to reverse trend again here in mid july, maybe that’s as good a reason as any.

  87. ben22 says:

    I’m going to take a shot at FXP here for a short term trade. Stops in place on 4,000 shares.

  88. Onlooker from Troy says:

    The VIX is a strange one. Just goes to show there’s more to that than meets the eye. Tracking right up with the market today. Must be strange OP EX dynamics at play as LB alluded to. Definitely above my head. And why I wouldn’t try to trade anything based on it without going to school on it first.

  89. I-Man says:

    @ Left:

    So do you think that is a reflection of peeps buying back puts they sold earlier to cover ahead of opex, or people buying puts ahead of opex…

    or just people getting long and buying protective puts?

    I dont have any answers… just looking for thoughts.

  90. Mannwich says:

    At this rate, we’ll be at S&P 1,000 by the end of the week! Recovery in full bloom!

  91. CapitalistCanuck says:

    “Fed: Unemployment Will Top 10 Percent This Year”

    Latest laughable headline on yahoo. Of course it will only reach 10% that’s because people will fall off the rolls and won’t be counted in the survey lol

    @ben22 good luck on the trade. I’m feelin a bit of pain on my SSO short but the puts I sold this morning are working out well to cushion the damage.

  92. Mannwich says:

    @Canuck: Aren’t we already at 9.4/5%? Gee, tell us something we don’t already know, Mr. Fed. Heckuva job! “Subprime is contained”…….”housing prices reflect fundamentals”. Did I miss any other good ones?

  93. leftback says:

    Classic squeeze day. My voice is already higher than it was this morning, I-Man must be a soprano by now.

    Peep must be buying puts knowing full well that this is a bear market rally.
    How bad does Morgana* have to do with the Q2 earnings report to trigger a sell-off?

    *Morgana the Kissing Bandit used to invade the field at sporting events.

  94. cvienne says:

    @CC

    I think they’re saying that unemployment will “go over” 10% (not that it will “top out” at 10%)…

    What made me laugh instead is how they came up with the notion that the economy would improve in the face of that…

  95. I-Man says:

    LOL.

    Nah… just practicing my falsetto today.

    My firm resounding baritone will be back in no time.

  96. Mike in Nola says:

    Re: SKF

    Well, I guess I’ll let that one be settled by vote :) I just keep getting tempted looking at last year’s chart.

    Notice the volume was low. Clearly, not many really have a lot of faith in what the market is doing. I suppose the big boys are hoping today and the Fed statement will suck in the marks, er, I mean retail investors.

  97. leftback says:

    @CV: They must mean the green economy in CA. Unemployed peeps spend more time smoking green shoots….

    LB is calling a low in the Treasury market RIGHT HERE.

  98. CapitalistCanuck says:

    @Mannwich

    I think it’s the administrations attempt at transparency.

    Geez, I just want one trade to go my way…I got my eye on a new Brietling watch that Mr. Market said he would buy me. :p

  99. Onlooker from Troy says:

    I’m singing a little high myself! But hanging in there. Some sanity will prevail again. I can wait.