One of our longstanding complaints has been that the traditionally reported measure of Unemployment, U3, dramatically under-reports unemployment in America. It is far too narrow and ignores too many people that want to work full time, but cannot.

We have detailed this over the years, and last summer, modestly proposed the media begin reporting U6, the broadest measure of joblessness. (see Previously, below)

So you can imagine our pleasure when yet another MSM gets hip to this. In the rpesent instance, it is the New York Times, Part-Time Workers Mask Unemployment Woes:

In California and a handful of other states, one out of every five people who would like to be working full time is not now doing so.

It is a startling sign of the pain that the Great Recession is inflicting, and it is largely missed by the official, oft-repeated statistics on unemployment. The national unemployment rate has risen to 9.5 percent, the highest level in more than a quarter-century. Yet it still excludes all those who have given up looking for a job and those part-time workers who want to be working full time.

Include them — as the Labor Department does when calculating its broadest measure of the job market — and the rate reached 23.5 percent in Oregon this spring, according to a New York Times analysis of state-by-state data. It was 21.5 percent in both Michigan and Rhode Island and 20.3 percent in California. In Tennessee, Nevada and several other states that have relied heavily on manufacturing or housing, the rate was just under 20 percent this spring and may have since surpassed it.

Of course, we also know from history that unemployment will continue to rise, even after the recession is officially over (so we got that going for us, which is nice).

Surprisng to see Oregon with the worst Unemployment in the nation — I would have guessed Michigan.

>

Click for interactive graphic

broad-ue-u6

>

>

Previously:
A Closer Look at Unemployment (September 2007)

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2007/09/a-closer-look-at-unemployment/

Unemployment Reporting: A Modest Proposal (U3 + U6) (June 2008)

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/06/unemployment-reporting-a-modest-proposal-u3-u6/

Pervasive Pollyannas of Prosperity (July 2008)

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/07/pervasive-pollyannas-of-prosperity/

NFP: Even Worse Than Reported (December 8th, 2008)

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/nfp-even-worse-than-reported/

Persons “Marginally Attached to the Labor Force” (July 4th, 2008)

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/07/persons-marginally-attached-to-the-labor-force/

Source:
Part-Time Workers Mask Unemployment Woes
DAVID LEONHARDT
NYT, July 14, 2009

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/15/business/economy/15leonhardt.html

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

286 Responses to “Yes, Unemployment Is Worse Than Reported”

  1. karen says:

    lb, we can have a bear market rally all the way to 1050.. watch the $wlsh… broadest measure of the economy… and if it wants to march up, no amount of reasoning will bring it down.. maybe it’s discounting 4 years from now… : )

  2. cvienne says:

    Re: Morgana

    She just begged the desire to stick your head in the middle of those things, shake it around and go

    BUBUBUBBUBUBUBUBUBUBUBBU….

  3. Mike in Nola says:

    Even OJ is up. I suppose the recovery will get us to drink more juice.

    Well, guess I’ll wait tll tomorrow to lay on some more shorts. If the claims no. is anywhere half decent, CNBC will explode and Dennis will strut.

  4. cvienne says:

    I’m still looking at 956…

    What’s interesting to me is that the 233 day EMA is about 960 right now on the S&P and bearing down hard on 956…

    It could be a meeting point…

  5. leftback says:

    Painful. But – we can buy FXP before we are “priced out forever”.. :-)

  6. Mannwich says:

    The Mother of all Short Squeezes or just her son?

  7. Andy T says:

    O man….my stop on Sep minis is 931…almost got hit….I HATE getting stopped out….could be a heavy a night of drinking at AT’s house…..

  8. Mike in Nola says:

    lb:

    Don’t talk to me of FXP. I was early on it :( Fortunately, only bought 100 shares, but that was at a bit over 20.
    Can WEN keep it pumped forever?

  9. Mannwich says:

    @AT: I’m already ahead of you. Stocking up for a little evening boat ride. Much booze will likely be imbibed.

  10. ben22 says:

    the confidence of the bulls on CNBC is going to be on full display tonight and tomorrow morning that is for sure.

  11. karen says:

    Milagro tequilla (and tonic), Andy. I indulged yesterday. Pilates this afternoon. Wine this evening, most likely. Sitting on my hands for SRS sub 18…

  12. cvienne says:

    @AT

    Before you get too drunk, take a look at TLT and see if that doesn’t look like the starting of a “d” wave…

    on the MACD it looks like the 30 min. is about to cross…

  13. ben22 says:

    I haven’t seen anyone say anything recently about BR’s claim that they were heavy in stocks and mostly tech.

    BR is looking pretty damn smart today.

  14. Mannwich says:

    @karen: I’m waiting on the same thing with SRS. Tempting to grab some here before the close.

  15. karen says:

    Okay, just gave back half my sso at 26.81.. will buy a pullback/rsi rest. Wondering if Andy was stopped out.. We gotta get our strategies in sync…

  16. leftback says:

    No-one ever said BR was stupid – and if they did, like Don Luskin, they lived to REGRET it. :-)

    CNBC will be complete unadulterated full-on bullsh*t tonight. Especially Kneale and Squeal.

  17. I-Man says:

    Ah… tequila and tonic… the best drink no one knows about.

  18. Mannwich says:

    If CNBC is broadcasting and nobody has it on, does it make a sound?

  19. emmanuel117 says:

    @ben22:

    Yup, that’s why he gets the cool blog and the rest of us just commentate.

    Props to the Master.

  20. ben22 says:

    Mannwich @ 3:14

    funny

    tequila and tonic, that sounds disgusting to me.

    The may sound a little girly but my latest drink is Three Olives Root Beer Vodka with nothing else.

    I don’t know how that is deflationary but I’m drinking it lately. : )

  21. leftback says:

    Someone is trying extremely hard to pin a number heading into expiration….
    Profit taking will begin at 3.45pm if not before.

  22. Mannwich says:

    I’m going to stick with good old fashioned beer this evening. Got some Summit I will bring on Lake Minnetonka. Probably will have more than a few!

  23. Mike in Nola says:

    lb: must be gregg and his AAPL calls :)

  24. ben22 says:

    @CC

    Those are nice watches but in general the faces are too big for me to ever buy one. I could see though if you like the outdoors, sailing, or you are a rapper why that would be a good pick.

    Was at a shop in Ceasers Palace in Vegas a few years ago looking at them and my buddy asked the sales clerk when they went on sale, his response was when you give me your credit card or write a check.

  25. leftback says:

    More on SPX/VIX parallelism and other weirdness from ZH:
    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/stop-trading.html

    Stay very calm here, people, and remember your fundamentals….

  26. Onlooker from Troy says:

    ben22

    I thought BR said he got stopped out last week. I can’t remember where (i.e. what post) but I know he mentioned it.

    I was wondering what he’d be doing with his positioning during this frenzy.

  27. leftback says:

    Added a small amount of SCO/DUG and exited some TBT. LB expects some profit taking in energy tomorrow.

  28. call me ahab says:

    anyone care to comment on predictions for GOOG tomorrow

  29. CapitalistCanuck says:

    @ben22

    “Was at a shop in Ceasers Palace in Vegas a few years ago looking at them and my buddy asked the sales clerk when they went on sale, his response was when you give me your credit card or write a check.”

    LOL funny stuff!

  30. leftback says:

    Barry will put up one of his squeeze posts: “WTF was that?”

    I-Man, you OK out there….?

  31. ben22 says:

    @Onlooker,

    I don’t think he was exactly stopped out, only hinted that many of the most recent purchases were stopped out but they have been building long positions since March so it wasn’t all of it. he said on Kudlow the other day they were still 60% equity.

  32. Mannwich says:

    I swallowed hard and grabbed small amounts of SRS and DUG at the close. Good night all.

  33. DL says:

    leftback @ 3:43

    I was lured in by the low VIX this morning, and put on a bear spread using SPY calls.

    (That VIX should get above 30 again soon, I think).

  34. manhattanguy says:

    Trading strategy for tomorrow is to sell Oil longs, buy Dollar, short Oil and nibble on some Treasuries long.

  35. I-Man says:

    I’m holding up surprisingly well given my tendency to throw shit and break things on days like today. My breathing exercises and Seykota channeling must be starting to work.

    I knew coming into this week that the financials could make a run and that the SPX could hit 930… I just forgot what it feels like to sit it out and not get all emo.

    Just like the last time this happened… when I was short at 930 and had my stop at 950 and had to let it marinate a bit… 956 ended up being the top, and I was rewarded for not bailing out.

    I feel the same today. I had a mental stop at 930, and decided to let it marinate. We’ll see if I have one more in me or if I’m just dumb as shit.

    My Everlast bag better watch the f*ck out this afternoon though… its going to be one hell of a workout today.

  36. leftback says:

    You guys see trading in CIT was stopped? So presumably we will have a bailout announcement soon, or else all hell will break loose – maybe that’s what prompted the big run-up in the VIX. As usual, someone must know already…

    I-Man, you go and marinate. It’s always better to be Indie than Emo. Just don’t watch Dennis tonight.

  37. hopeImwrong says:

    Contributors to this blog are awesome. I love this blog because of Barry (yes), but the level of the discussion in the comments section is not surpassed anywhere else that I can find. Thanks to everyone.

  38. leftback says:

    Cintas and Xilinx earnings were total dogsh*t. That ought to cheer people up.

  39. hopeImwrong says:

    Has anyone noticed the circumstances of the socio-economic dynamic is crescendoing again, as it did last summer. It’s so strange to me how march-may seemed a boring period, and now new dynamics are popping up every day piquing my interest. Once again, I’m having trouble keeping up with it all.

    Is it just me? It just feels like we are building to another event.

  40. Thor says:

    hopeimwrong – I agree! That’s what keeps me coming back!

  41. leftback says:

    Friday will be a wild one, at least the pre-market and the morning trade, before the Hamptons jitney leaves town.

    Not only options expiration, but also C, GE and BAC reporting before the bell.
    Now, who could be buying all those puts today? Hmm…..

  42. jc says:

    I just read that Intel results were juiced by “atom” chip sales for netbooks. Thats like auto sales rising due to Tata Nano.

    PS I still can’t believe milk prices/sales are down, whoever thought of milk as a luxury/discretionary expenditure? I have seen sales on milk here in NJ and yogurt is always on major sales – like 2/3 – as it approaches it’s expiration date.(I always considered out dated yogurt to be over proof! You can never tell when yogurt goes sour!)

    http://tatanano.inservices.tatamotors.com/tatamotors/

  43. leftback says:

    “It just feels like we are building to another event”

    Eventually we will have a big Not TBTF bankruptcy, and rediscover the “inter-connectedness” of the system.
    An infinite series of bailouts would lead to a complete breakdown in the bond market. Lines will be drawn.

  44. hopeImwrong says:

    jc – re:yogurt I used to joke, “how can you tell when yogurt goes bad?” Or, “why is there an expiration date on the yogurt?” Of course, there is a way to tell, but thinkers will chuckle after a second or two.

  45. manhattanguy says:

    Another day another bailout. This saga will never end. We are destined to lose AAA status this year.

  46. Pat G. says:

    @Mannwich (3:14)

    That gave me a really good laugh. Thanks!!

    @ Ben22

    And thanks for your thoughts re; the deflation/inflation debate. I enjoyed it. But, in the end we all croak and in the meantime we all experience this time in our lives, together. CNBC will love the sentimentality in that…

  47. call me ahab says:

    “Rep. Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said earlier Wednesday that the Treasury wants to find a “responsible” way to provide government aid to CIT.”

    man- it never fucking ends

  48. batmando says:

    leftback at 3:58 pm
    Added a small amount of SCO/DUG

    Mannwich at 4:04 pm
    small amounts of SRS and DUG at the close

    I took DUG/SDS/SRS nibbles from 3:44 into the close.

    Just curious, for tomorrow’s open, how tight will your stops be (%-wise) below your SCO/DUG/SRS/DUG bot near close?

  49. jc says:

    Just thinking about gov as landlord for the foreclosed – apparently this is only for primary residences so FL,NV and SC are still shit out of luck.

    Talk about this plan makes me think that the -25% underwater proposal announced by Team O’B last week still isn’t enough

    http://247wallst.com/2009/07/15/if-uncle-sam-takes-mortgages-and-becomes-landlord/#more-40919

  50. Thor says:

    Ahab – ugh, Barney Frank. I’m ashamed he and I play for the same team.

  51. I-Man says:

    I didnt know you were in congress Thor…

  52. ben22 says:

    @Pat G,

    No problem man, I also enjoy hearing the other side of my stance as well and being challenged, helps me to not fall in love with any one idea, another reason this site is where it’s at.

  53. leftback says:

    @Just curious, for tomorrow’s open, how tight will your stops be ?

    That depends on whether you are on an IB prop trading desk… LOL. NO STOPS, BABY….
    I am a mental stops guy these days, we like to give our trades room to roam, especially when we are right !!

  54. I-Man says:

    @ Thor

    Ok… ok…

    I forgot the :)

    8)

  55. Thor says:

    I-man – “I didnt know you were in congress Thor…’

    I have NEVER been so utterly insulted in my life! :-)

  56. Thor says:

    I-man – PS – feel free to tease me all you want, It’s pretty hard to offend me :P

  57. I-Man says:

    Hey-

    Where did the CIT thread go? It just disappeared…

  58. Onlooker from Troy says:

    “…to find a “responsible” way to provide government aid to CIT.”

    And bail out their bond holders. Rep. Frank left that part out, of course.

  59. ben22 says:

    the most enjoyable part of the day is seeing that AT’s call about the H&S was right, everyone saw it, it didn’t happen. Way to go on that call AT.

  60. Mike in Nola says:

    ben22:

    you bein’ sarcastic?

  61. Onlooker from Troy says:

    CIT may be in trouble with their bail out from the govt. We may see the inverse of today in the markets if that goes to hell. Bloody interesting times we live in.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/15/AR2009071503305.html?hpid=moreheadlines

  62. Andy T says:

    I don’t think he’s being sarcastic. Weeks ago I was suggesting that the H&S pattern being discussed in the media would not happen….BECAUSE it was being discussed too much.

  63. ben22 says:

    Mike,

    No I’m not. I get the emails from AT, he made a claim that the head and shoulders should fool people because so many were discussing it, think he also mentioned this on here. While I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a pullback for the next two days to go along with my days of the week theme of late today’s action looked quite bullish from my view. That isn’t what was supposed to happen based on the H&S pattern as most people were reading it, most calls were for a drop to the mid to low 800′s. Lots of people were piling on that call. So yeah, I like watching herds get it wrong.

    I’ve mentioned on here so many times in the last two weeks that I didn’t think the probability was really on anyone’s side to get really short right now and while I bought some FXP late today it’s only for a short term trade.

  64. Mike in Nola says:

    ben22 and AT:

    Cashin wrote a column today about how too many people were watching it. He must get the emails too.

    With this CIT stuff I may miss my chance to buy some FXP that won’t have to double before I’m outta the red :)

  65. ben22 says:

    Mike,

    I heard him discuss that this morning as well and I was thinking to myself, AT just said that.

    Cashin is one of the best on cnbc imho too bad he’s usually only on for only up to a few minutes each morning

  66. cvienne says:

    @ben22

    “I heard him discuss that this morning as well and I was thinking to myself, AT just said that.”

    Um…ben…I kinda said the same thing back on July 8th…

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/art-cashin-on-secular-cycles/#comment-191112
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/art-cashin-on-secular-cycles/#comment-191116

  67. ben22 says:

    Cvienne,

    Sorry, feel free to include yourself in my post then from above. You’ve made lots of good calls lately.

  68. I-Man says:

    @B22 and other doubters of the H&S

    http://thepatternsite.com/chst.html

    There’s a lot more to a H & S Pattern than your classic interpretation. Not saying that this pattern is of the complex class for sure, but it has yet to be ruled out. It has not been fully confirmed. But its definitely a factor in my decision to remain short today.

  69. I-Man says:

    Complex head-and-shoulders tops are strong performers in a bull market, showing a small break even failure rate and large average decline if traded perfectly. Pullbacks occur almost two thirds of the time, so anticipate them happening.

    (From the link.)

  70. cvienne says:

    @I-man

    dude…help me out here…I need to score me one of those trademark (TM) things that lefty uses all the time because I’m going to make another trademark right here right now…

    It’s going to be called the ROXBURY H&S…tm

    It stands for the guys at the guys from “Night at the Roxbury” doin all those head tilts to the Haddaway song “What is Love”…

    because IMO – all the H&S patterns I see nowadays are not horizontal ones, they’re “tilted” ones…

    The genre is not DEAD, it just needs a little updating so as to keep the CNBC crew looking like fools…

  71. I-Man says:

    I trade with pattern recognition in mind not because of how they look on the charts or how privy they are to the general public or not, but because of the underlying human psychology that they reflect in price action, or, our beloved “tape”.

    I actually found it amusing how many people were discussing this one, and meanwhile, interpreting the same thing in different ways. Its kind of fascinating to see TA being discussed in the MSM. I thought we were all like banditos or something. I thought the fundy guys got all the press.

  72. constantnormal says:

    @I-Man — do you see any impact to your pattern recognition methodology from about half the trades coming from program traders?

  73. cvienne says:

    @I-man

    My thoughts are this…

    I certainly don’t discount “pattern recognition”…in fact, I’m a believer of it…Furthermore, I’m a full subscriber to fibonacci numbers…I mean, those patterns are evident even in ARCHITECTURE of ancient cultures…

    But what I’m noodling around with lately is the idea that the PATTERNS that the human eye sees are not the same as what COMPUTERS see…So much “quant” trading is done these days that I try and see destinations that a computer might see…

    Maybe they don’t have the same spatial definitions of horizontal & vertical that humans do…and if that is the case, you need to start TILTING your landscape…

  74. Onlooker from Troy says:

    I Man

    I’m a far distance from being TA expert or investing expert at all, but that’s my thoughts as well. Just because the H&S hasn’t played out in a classic manner, the underlying dynamics at play may still yield the same result in due time. Also the analysis is far from complete by just looking at the pattern. Volume and other market measures have to be taken into account as well. And just about all the technical indicators and market internals are pretty atrocious from what I understand.

    I’m still comfortable with the idea that this advance will not hold for any significant period of time. So I will maintain my short bias. It’s still a bear market. And the world’s still a mess but is hanging onto hope in a desperate way.

  75. constantnormal says:

    @cvienne — If I were designing a trading AI, I would be schooling it to watch for the sort of patterns that chartists favor, and use them to herd the slow humans into a box canyon and harvest them. At a minimum, I would be using the trading volume along the pattern as a “wind” to tack against, trimming a little from every expected move along the pattern. That would have the effect of smoothing out the noise in the pattern, and possibly stretching it out over time … I think.

  76. cvienne says:

    @OT

    as I remember, this comment (last week) was directed to you…

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/art-cashin-on-secular-cycles/#comment-191116

    Notwithstanding, I’m in TOTAL agreement with you…Fundamentals will eventually play out (quants or no quants)…

    One old anecdote that I was reminding myself of today was the following notion:

    How many UP 2.5% – 3% days have we had in the S&P since March…I don’t know, but A LOT I’d bet…Those types of moves simply don’t happen in BULL MARKETS with PROPER FUNDAMENTALS…

    However, once can go broke playing fundamentals too rigidly…Frankly, I’m happy to stay EVEN during this time when Mr. Hope meets Mr. Obvious (no offense to you karen)…

    The time will present itself…The last pullback I ‘started’ to see the right tumbler locks fall into place but I didn’t hear the CLICK…we’re getting closer…

  77. I-Man says:

    @ constant:

    I’ll say this: yes I have begun to recognize the prints that the machines leave behind. I cant say for certain because I dont have the techno ability… I dont know anything about Level II either, or really have the inclination for it. So my observations, or my perception of them anyway, are clearly not backed by data…

    But nonetheless, I am confident that I can recognize a computer generated “pattern” or “breakout” versus a more natural one.
    That being said though, and I am struggling with coming to terms with this viewpoint myself, it really doesnt matter who is doing it or not, or how the tape is being shown, what matters is that its happening, and we need to accept it and make the decision to either trade with it or against it.

    To me, I think that manipulation has always been a part of the game and it always will be… if you call what the machines are doing manipulation, well, then…

  78. Bruce in Tn says:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/16/business/16cit.html?_r=1&ref=business

    CIT Says It Won’t Get More U.S. Aid

    “We have a comprehensive and aggressive strategy to restore stability to the financial system as a whole so that credit flows to both businesses and consumers and puts us on a path to sustainable growth,” the Treasury said in a statement. “Even during periods of financial stress, we believe that there is a very high threshold for exceptional government assistance to individual companies.”

    ….Little Lehman or no big deal tomorrow? This apparently is the final word…and if last week’s initial claims were altered by the holiday, could be interesting Thursday…..

  79. cvienne says:

    @cn

    that’s not bad…

    In the end too you have to be a bully…If you’re going to box them into a canyon, you have have to have the power to stampede them out…that requires more than a firecracker, you may need a stick of dynamite…

    But I think there’s even more to it than that…

    Since the March lows, I have noticed a migration into what I’d describe as “sentient” and “insentient” camps…

    The “sentient” ones are the ones with SOMETHING POTENTIALLY TO LOSE…The “insentient” ones are the ones who don’t want to lose, but are so loaded with money that they basically say WTF…Let’s just trade the thing and see how it goes…

    The “sentient” ones are the ones who embrace fundamentals (who KNOW IN THEIR HEARTS that righteousness will prevail in the long run)…

    The “insentient” ones, who are free and clear a couple of mil here and there can clown around about winning or losing 20K per day…So they just TRADE, they go where the prevailing wind takes them…If someone wants to take the S&P up to 1,050, so be it…WHO CARES IF IT MEANS P/E RATIOS WILL BE AT 1,800+…THEY CAN DRINK THEIR GLASS OF WINE AT THE END OF THE EVENING AND EVEN BRAG TO THEIR FRIENDS HOW GREAT THEY ARE…It doesn’t matter to them if, based on how the MSM portrays the “health” of the economy, if a run-up to bubblicious territory actually ends up EXACERBATING the eventual economic demise of this country (hey, they made a half mil “beer money” on the side in the process because they were so smart)…They are the PUPPETTEERS…God love ‘em for it…

    The “sentient” ones care about their families, hopefully their clients, and perhaps the general welfare of the citizens of this country…NOBODY WANTS THIS COUNTRY TO GO DOWN THE TUBES…But they realize that the “hard medicine” may be the best thing at this point…So they play it cautiously…In this period of WHO KNOWS WHAT?…they’re probably happy to tread water or break even…

    I don’t know…but besides QUANT MODELS…I think THAT is something one has to factor in…And my biggest FEAR (for not going 100% short this market right now)…is the fear of the INSENTIENT folks with a wad of cash they don’t know what to do with…

  80. constantnormal says:

    Bruce — my thoughts are that today was the chosen day to lower the boom on CIT (“allow it to fail”) because JPM is reporting earnings tomorrow and will act as a counter to any fear that a big failure might generate. I expect JPM to have blow-out earnings, in a very similar manner to GS, and MSM will trumpet this more loudly that they gawk at the roadside crash of CIT or examine the implications thereof.

    I look to see a coordinated herd of banksters quickly swoop in to hoover up CIT’s business, so as to not inconvenience their customers, and to minimize any collateral damage. That’s what ought to properly happen, in any event.

    The way that Lehman was allowed to crash without any planned support for their “dependents” was disgraceful, and IMHO designed to damage the economy.

    But that’s just my twisted way of seeing things. Everybody has their own perceptions, and from outside the bubble it’s hard to say what is real and what is orchestrated.

  81. Bruce in Tn says:

    Well, one other thing that has happened here it the extreme volatility of the bond market over such short time spans..actually when you think of it, it has to be this way with this much funny money being pumped into the market…you players must be having a hard time of it here.

    And constant…you “allow to fail” remark…isn’t it funny that such a thing just 12 months ago…ONE YEAR AGO…would have been such an alien concept that if you’d told people such a widespread government bailout of all things economic was in full swing in July 2009 they would probably have looked at you funny and then taken the baby inside to be sure it was safe.

    There has been remarkable economic history made in less than one year….you traders have my admiration…

    Except for Leftback who is coached daily by the twins…

  82. Bruce in Tn says:

    But others — notably in the retail industry — warned that a failure of CIT would pose grave dangers to businesses.

    “A failure of CIT would impact thousands of retailers and, consequently, the consumer spending that makes up two-thirds of our nation’s economy,” Tracy Mullin, the chief executive of the National Retail Federation, an industry group, wrote in a letter to the Treasury secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, earlier on Wednesday. “That cannot be allowed to happen at a time when retailers are already struggling to survive the national recession.”

    ….from the same NYT’s article…Constant I hope you are correct…

  83. constantnormal says:

    Agreed. And just think about the incredible range of possibilities that lie between here and July 2010.

    I think that just about anything can happen — mainly because there are apparently no limits to how far the powers-that-be are willing to spin the controls. Scary beyond belief.

  84. constantnormal says:

    I do feel fairly confident (in my complete and total ignorance) that by Monday, the retailers and other businesses that depended upon CIT will not even notice that it’s gone. There really is no reason why it should not play out that way.

    I’m sure that CIT has shared its list of exposed customers with the appropriate parties in the course of its struggles to get funding, so they would have all the knowledge to reallocate those business relationships to other lenders. The FDIC is performing this same game every weekend as it closes more and more smaller banks.

  85. cvienne says:

    @Bruce

    This is just my guess…but the volatility in the bond market doesn’t strike me as being particularly odd (by historical measures, yes, but in a small window, no)…

    I think there was a tremendous run (probably a lot due to a rare equity run up in which profits were searching a home for the short term – BEFORE THE END OF THE QUARTER mind you)…

    Now – there is a side political agenda (the Healthcare Package – a version of which was passed in the Senate)…So the Bond Vigilantes make a ruckus, and the ruckus is in concert with an equity rally which is happening for no other reason than to say WTF? why the hell not?

    I predict a return to order in due time…