Comments on: 1 in 8 US Mortgages Falling Behind http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/1-in-8-mortgages-behind/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 17:38:10 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: New Mortgage Info » Blog Archive » 1 in 8 US Mortgages Falling Behind | The Big Picture http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/1-in-8-mortgages-behind/comment-page-1/#comment-207843 New Mortgage Info » Blog Archive » 1 in 8 US Mortgages Falling Behind | The Big Picture Sun, 23 Aug 2009 05:00:18 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=36144#comment-207843 [...] Barry Ritholtz wrote an interesting post today on1 in 8 US <b>Mortgages</b> Falling Behind | The Big PictureHere’s a quick excerpt [...] [...] Barry Ritholtz wrote an interesting post today on1 in 8 US <b>Mortgages</b> Falling Behind | The Big PictureHere’s a quick excerpt [...]

]]> By: Chart Junkie: A Picture's Worth ... 8.21.09 | Wall St. Cheat Sheet http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/1-in-8-mortgages-behind/comment-page-1/#comment-207174 Chart Junkie: A Picture's Worth ... 8.21.09 | Wall St. Cheat Sheet Fri, 21 Aug 2009 14:45:30 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=36144#comment-207174 [...] from the Mortgage Bankers Association show an increasingly dismal picture for mortgagees. (Hat Tip: The Big Picture) Click Image for Larger [...] [...] from the Mortgage Bankers Association show an increasingly dismal picture for mortgagees. (Hat Tip: The Big Picture) Click Image for Larger [...]

]]> By: A Change in the Internal Strength in Our Universe of Stocks - Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing - InvestorsInsight.com | Financial Intelligence, Advice & Research / Investment Strategies & Planning for Individual Investors. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/1-in-8-mortgages-behind/comment-page-1/#comment-207127 A Change in the Internal Strength in Our Universe of Stocks - Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing - InvestorsInsight.com | Financial Intelligence, Advice & Research / Investment Strategies & Planning for Individual Investors. Fri, 21 Aug 2009 13:17:45 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=36144#comment-207127 [...] recent mortgage foreclosure stats--which don’t make good reading (short):    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/1-in-8-mortgages-behind/    The Fed’s dilemma (medium):    [...] [...] recent mortgage foreclosure stats–which don’t make good reading (short):    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/1-in-8-mortgages-behind/  &nbsp; The Fed’s dilemma (medium):    [...]

]]> By: KevinM http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/1-in-8-mortgages-behind/comment-page-1/#comment-207117 KevinM Fri, 21 Aug 2009 12:56:07 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=36144#comment-207117 Headline is very misleading! One in eight describes FLA and NEV, not the nation. Don't start playing CNBC with the headlines Ritholtz. Headline is very misleading!

One in eight describes FLA and NEV, not the nation. Don’t start playing CNBC with the headlines Ritholtz.

]]> By: emmanuel117 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/1-in-8-mortgages-behind/comment-page-1/#comment-207107 emmanuel117 Fri, 21 Aug 2009 12:16:49 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=36144#comment-207107 Euroland is feeling good, $ not so much. Euroland is feeling good, $ not so much.

]]> By: mcHAPPY http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/1-in-8-mortgages-behind/comment-page-1/#comment-207101 mcHAPPY Fri, 21 Aug 2009 11:06:16 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=36144#comment-207101 How long? How long must we sing this song? How long? How loooooong? How long?
How long must we sing this song?
How long?
How loooooong?

]]> By: Effective Demand http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/1-in-8-mortgages-behind/comment-page-1/#comment-207100 Effective Demand Fri, 21 Aug 2009 10:54:02 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=36144#comment-207100 Here is another data point showing that the market is currently supply constrained in California: http://effectivedemand.blogspot.com/2009/08/supply-constrained.html Until some of that latent supply (wanting/needing to sell or in default) becomes effective supply (a home being marketed on the MLS) sales will be limited. Bernanke has created a very good market to liquidate supply into but we are running out of homes to sell currently. Here is another data point showing that the market is currently supply constrained in California:
http://effectivedemand.blogspot.com/2009/08/supply-constrained.html

Until some of that latent supply (wanting/needing to sell or in default) becomes effective supply (a home being marketed on the MLS) sales will be limited.

Bernanke has created a very good market to liquidate supply into but we are running out of homes to sell currently.

]]> By: Effective Demand http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/1-in-8-mortgages-behind/comment-page-1/#comment-207097 Effective Demand Fri, 21 Aug 2009 10:23:39 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=36144#comment-207097 BR, Many people use Shadow Inventory as a defintion of bank owned homes not for sale on the market: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/04/08/MNL516UG90.DTL&type=business&tsp=1 http://www.cnbc.com/id/32108755 http://www.foreclosuretruth.com/blog/sean/reo-inventory-hidden-shadows http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2009/07/21/are-banks-holding-a-shadow-inventory-of-homes/ http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2009/05/06/toscano/717shadowinventory042109.txt http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/shadow-housing-inventory-the-deception-of-the-foreclosure-numbers-and-the-real-reo-picture-a-case-study-of-southern-california-real-estate-how-40000-homes-are-hidden-from-public-view-by-banks/ Just as many people use it for the whole world of inventory wanting to sell but not on market. My blog post was directed for the former not the latter. BR,

Many people use Shadow Inventory as a defintion of bank owned homes not for sale on the market:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/04/08/MNL516UG90.DTL&type=business&tsp=1
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32108755
http://www.foreclosuretruth.com/blog/sean/reo-inventory-hidden-shadows
http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2009/07/21/are-banks-holding-a-shadow-inventory-of-homes/
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2009/05/06/toscano/717shadowinventory042109.txt
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/shadow-housing-inventory-the-deception-of-the-foreclosure-numbers-and-the-real-reo-picture-a-case-study-of-southern-california-real-estate-how-40000-homes-are-hidden-from-public-view-by-banks/

Just as many people use it for the whole world of inventory wanting to sell but not on market.

My blog post was directed for the former not the latter.

]]> By: Barry Ritholtz http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/1-in-8-mortgages-behind/comment-page-1/#comment-207095 Barry Ritholtz Fri, 21 Aug 2009 10:15:28 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=36144#comment-207095 The term <strong>Shadow Inventory</strong> -- at least the way that I use the phrase -- refers to the homes purchased during the boom that are not offered for sale, but would be if the market was improved. They are currently being rented or carried at a loss or simply owned -- and as soon as prices firm up, they will hit the market. Think of it as overhead resistance . . . The term Shadow Inventory — at least the way that I use the phrase — refers to the homes purchased during the boom that are not offered for sale, but would be if the market was improved.

They are currently being rented or carried at a loss or simply owned — and as soon as prices firm up, they will hit the market.

Think of it as overhead resistance . . .

]]> By: Effective Demand http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/1-in-8-mortgages-behind/comment-page-1/#comment-207087 Effective Demand Fri, 21 Aug 2009 06:21:42 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=36144#comment-207087 The BP crowd might find a blog post I made tonight interesting, <a href="http://effectivedemand.blogspot.com/2009/08/bursting-bubble-shadow-inventory-does.html" rel="nofollow">Bursting the bubble: Shadow Inventory does not exist. </a> Basically, people keep thinking there is this huge number of homes foreclosed on but not being marketed by the banks. The numbers simply don't jive in California. There is no large number of bank owned homes not on the MLS unless they just recently got foreclosed on and are going through pre-list. I've searched public records and matched it with MLS data for my local area and haven't found it. Foreclosures are a matter of public record.. they can't be hidden. The real shadow inventory is the homes not being foreclosed on.. I highly recommend the following posts explaining what is currently going on: http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2009/08/06/foreclosure-wave-gets-bigger/15037/ And why the foreclosure next wave may never come: http://www.foreclosuretruth.com/blog/sean/waiting-catch-wave-surge-reo-listings-unlikely These views (mine included) are definitely not the norm but they are data driven.. The BP crowd might find a blog post I made tonight interesting, Bursting the bubble: Shadow Inventory does not exist.

Basically, people keep thinking there is this huge number of homes foreclosed on but not being marketed by the banks. The numbers simply don’t jive in California. There is no large number of bank owned homes not on the MLS unless they just recently got foreclosed on and are going through pre-list.

I’ve searched public records and matched it with MLS data for my local area and haven’t found it. Foreclosures are a matter of public record.. they can’t be hidden.

The real shadow inventory is the homes not being foreclosed on..

I highly recommend the following posts explaining what is currently going on:
http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2009/08/06/foreclosure-wave-gets-bigger/15037/

And why the foreclosure next wave may never come:
http://www.foreclosuretruth.com/blog/sean/waiting-catch-wave-surge-reo-listings-unlikely

These views (mine included) are definitely not the norm but they are data driven..

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