5% Level For Toxic Loans Doom Banks
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Fascinating Bloomberg article accompanies the chart above.
“More than 150 publicly traded U.S. lenders own nonperforming loans that equal 5 percent or more of their holdings, a level that former regulators say can wipe out a bank’s equity and threaten its survival.
The number of banks exceeding the threshold more than doubled in the year through June, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, as real estate and credit-card defaults surged. Almost 300 reported 3 percent or more of their loans were nonperforming, a term for commercial and consumer debt that has stopped collecting interest or will no longer be paid in full.”
All of which means we should expect to see more bank closings later this year . . .
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Source:
Toxic Loans Topping 5% May Push 150 Banks to Point of No Return
Ari Levy
Bloomberg, August 14 2009
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTTT9jivRIWE
August 14th, 2009 at 7:33 am
I’m not sure if you noticed but the 5% article and the article below were right next to each in Bloomberg’s Exclusive section.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aF9XXH40s4ys
Amazing how so many people can come to such differing views given the data out there. Anyone who can get excited over a drop in the unemployment rate after hundreds of thousands mysteriously vanishing from the workforce is beyond me. Also speaking of unemployment I can’ t remember where I read it but someone made reference to the J6 and stated if all those who left the workforce were included and the birth/death was excluded, unemployment would be 20.8%. ‘Nuff said?
August 14th, 2009 at 7:36 am
*U6 was meant.
August 14th, 2009 at 7:58 am
Banks are gigantic leveraged blackbox hedge funds. No one knows what their real balance sheet looks like. The FDIC, Fed, OTS and all the financial regulators do not want to know what’s going on as they would then have to do something. Nothing like pleading ignorance and using the excuse of the 100 yr flood when the shaky edifice gets rocked again.
But no worries mate – US taxpayers have backstopped it all! Run it up the flagpole.
August 14th, 2009 at 8:37 am
None of the big banks will be hurt by this; they will get taxpayer freebies ’til the cows come home. Perhaps some of the smaller banks will disappear. Then those assets will be recovered by the government and sold to JP and GS at about 1 penny on the dollar with market bids at 30 cents.
Don’t all you sane, rational people out there just get fed up with all this? What can be done? You can’t vote the bums out because the system simply gives you new and improved bums. You can’t vote with your feet because frankly few other countries like Americans anyway. any ideas?
August 14th, 2009 at 9:04 am
This talk about the U.S. tax payer bailing everyone out is fallacious, the real entity who is bailing everyone out is the boogy-man. The tax payer has no money, neither does the FED! Everything is fake. This is what is so deplorable. Intelligent women and men in Washington and on Wall Street want to see a glass half-full and in fact the glass is broken and leaking profusely.
August 14th, 2009 at 9:11 am
@JustinTheSkeptic
…at present, regardless of whether or not the glass is “half full” or “half empty”…
The attitude is “down the hatch” with the rest of that drink & bartender “one more for the road”!
August 14th, 2009 at 9:12 am
…now where are those car keys?
August 14th, 2009 at 9:14 am
Citigroup shares rise after BofA-Merrill upgrade
http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSTRE57D26H20090814
How the hell is Merrill allowed to issue Buy/Sell ratings? Better yet why would inwestors pay attention to them? Enron should just put out a buy rating on Chevron for shits and giggles (sigh) of course in this market that would probably lead to an intraday spike
August 14th, 2009 at 9:28 am
To add onto what I was discussing yesterday on gold, I think that all of the money printing by the government is going to really take its toll in the long run, and it will ultimately be reflected in a higher gold price. Moreover, some of the only beneficiaries of this will be the gold mining companies. Claude Resources is a junior miner with considerable leverage to the gold price, and it recently raised production guidance for the remainder of 2009.
August 14th, 2009 at 9:36 am
I’m not a trader, but I recently bought some FAZ. The “worst financial crisis since the Great Depression” was nothing compared to what’s coming, as this article implicitly points out.
Bernanke hasn’t done anything to save us from Great Depression 2.0 as he claims. He’s just rolled all the risks of the quasi-private banks’ balance sheets onto the Fed’s. Again, I’m not a trader, but it seems the best long-term (i.e., longer than a gnat’s attention span) play would be to short the Federal Reserve, however one thinks that is best accomplished.
Along with the cheapening of the currency and everything else, words have become cheap. Since this “crisis” that really wasn’t has officially been declared over, with post-mortems already being written, what will we use to describe the real crisis that’s coming? I imagine that it will carry an ironically under-stated moniker like the “troubles” or something, because no one will want to acknowledge the real pain that the next leg down will cause.
We are witnessing the slow-motion, self-induced implosion of an empire.
August 14th, 2009 at 9:39 am
[...] Other The banks are not out of trouble: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/5-level-for-toxic-loans-doom-banks/ http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/08/ten_minutes_wit.html [...]
August 14th, 2009 at 9:41 am
http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-gary-shilling-still-filled-with-unrelenting-gloom-2009-7#also-no-more-home-equity-withdrawals-9
some good news
August 14th, 2009 at 9:42 am
@TC
We’re in a state of suspended animation. We will remain in that state until the ones who are in charge and responsible for pulling the levers at the moment can create the proper diversionary tactic…
(i.e. “something to convincingly blame it on”)
August 14th, 2009 at 9:45 am
i.e. World War?
August 14th, 2009 at 9:48 am
@Curmudgeon: “We are witnessing the slow-motion, self-induced implosion of an empire.”
I just finished re-reading Paul Kennedy’s “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers,” which would tend to support your comment. However it also suggests that – historically at least – these things take decades, not years. Maybe this time it’s different, but markets and a lot of other things can stay irrational for much longer than we expect.
August 14th, 2009 at 9:58 am
@Mortimus
Frankly…at this stage in the game I’m more worried about Civil War rather than World War…
And what I mean isn’t necessarily people fighting in the streets against their brothers…Instead, I’m talking (vis-a-vis, this thread)…
- jingle mail
- utter disobedience (not paying loans back, not paying taxes, etc.)
- breakdown of commerce
August 14th, 2009 at 10:00 am
@ben22
Hey Ben…I mighty “spotty” opening so far this morning, wouldn’t you agree…(Note: careful with your response, you wouldn’t want your PHI to show)…:-)
August 14th, 2009 at 10:00 am
So how many banks are hiding toxic assets in order to continue to pay out absurd bonuses?
August 14th, 2009 at 10:02 am
No Barry, all of which means that JP Morgan will be snapping up more assets at fire sale prices.
Remember WaMu? Dimon bought it with the confidence that even in the worst case scenario, he will be back stopped by Uncle Sam, Barack or whomever.
The House of Morgan has all of the decks stacked in its favor- they will be the only ones left standing when all this is said and done.
August 14th, 2009 at 10:02 am
Dead, if I didn’t have to sit here and baby-sit this position, I’d be on the beach sipping a big vodka martini out of my favorite plastic glass, while watching young teen age women walk through my sun glassed eyes…maybe tomorrow! My keys, they’d be in the old lady’s bag. Beautfiful day here, thankfully God gives us reason to hope…unlike the asses in position of power. lol
August 14th, 2009 at 10:04 am
@Joe Retail…..reminds me of a quote from the book “When Genius Failed” that always made me laugh: something like “the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
I made some money off FAS a few months back and my thinking was you can’t fight the Fed. But then I decided, like the idiot I can be, to buy some FAZ and watched that stock fall like a rock out of the sky.
August 14th, 2009 at 10:04 am
sold my $IPSU in the morning for a nice gain. Markets look toppy, but thanks to Fed ingestion program, it continues to trade very expensive. One can only wish that reality comes back to market soon.
August 14th, 2009 at 10:05 am
Oh, I consider those three foregone conclusions at this point (sadly, they might be the soundest financial decisions for many).
I remember “moral hazard” was all the rage last year, but for some reason we no longer hear the phrase in the media anymore. Judging by the anger bubbling in other areas it looks like we’re getting a nice lesson on the topic. If those bonuses in fact do get paid out this “Black Christmas” we’ll probably be adding much scarier bullet points to that list.
August 14th, 2009 at 10:08 am
@JustinTheSkeptic
Be careful what you do be4 you simply hand over the car keys to the old lady…
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/10-for-thursday/#comment-204031
This, Grazie a karen (from yesterday’s thread)…
August 14th, 2009 at 10:09 am
@manhattanguy
Reality? We don’t need no stinkin reality!
August 14th, 2009 at 10:15 am
@DOA
Hopefully reality is setting in as we speak
August 14th, 2009 at 10:21 am
Just 5%?
Come on… who are they kidding?
August 14th, 2009 at 10:24 am
Sell, Mortimer !!
Hmm… the boyz have made their fees, the bonuses are in the works, it’s time to dump the Spoos and buy the 2s !!!
LB mentioned to a friend yesterday that large -scale Treasury buying (W, Th) often precedes a large down day.
BTW, thanks to Onlooker for the Danielle Park link yesterday, LB adores her and her straight-talking no-bull Canadian style. Our favorite female market pundit – apart from TBP’s Golden Girl, The Fabulous Karen, that is.
August 14th, 2009 at 10:25 am
I will be doing everything within my power to be totally debt free (ALL debt, including our mortgage) ASAP and won’t go back until this system changes for the better. It may seem silly but that’s my own personal demonstration against these scoundrels. I had another bank calling me about re-financing our mortgage yesterday. I told him to call me back when they’re rates are in the 4’s again on a 30 year and hung up. My two recent calls with AMEX and that bank yesterday give me the impression that those in banks are starting to get a backlash from many customers (I can hear it in their frustrated tone on the other end). Things are percolating again. This fiasco is far from over.
August 14th, 2009 at 10:28 am
Thank you I-Man I was thinking along the same lines.
Financial planning genius I am not, but it seems difficult to believe a mere 2.5 to 5% decline in banking revenue could cause them to fail.
According to the nation census bureau there were just over 111 million house holds in the United Stated (2007) The US Govt is giving 3 billion tax payer dollars for Cash for Crap, the US govt wants to “increase?” heath care coverage for these house holds at an estimated $2 trillion over the 10 years, and the cost for TARP is estimated at anywhere between $780 billion and the moon.
I would venture to guess that after combining all these costs they add up to more then a 5% increase per house hold. This is before taking into account declining income and raising gas prices and yet house holds and families continue to hold on and survive.
And the banks are whining about 5% or less decrease in revenue.
Hell I say, just give them a blank check book and let them keep writing themselves checks until everything is better.
August 14th, 2009 at 10:31 am
Manwich, best of luck to you in becoming debt free.
I believe that is the smartest thing anyone can do right now
August 14th, 2009 at 10:34 am
@frankline420: Thanks. Not far from it already. Only have one car payment, which will be done in 5 months and after that’s it’s just the mortgage and my business credit card. Until some sanity resumes in our banking system, I think I’ll just be sitting this one out for a while.
August 14th, 2009 at 10:36 am
@lefty
“LB mentioned to a friend yesterday that large -scale Treasury buying (W, Th) often precedes a large down day”
at least it was a nice 30 minute move to distinguish the “vultures” from the “meat” for the PINners…
August 14th, 2009 at 10:41 am
MORAL HAZARD is child’s play in the United States.
We are now firmly entrenched in the effects of REGULATORY CAPTURE.
August 14th, 2009 at 10:41 am
f420d: Think about 5% and then think about leverage and fractional reserve banking. Now think about 5% again.
August 14th, 2009 at 10:42 am
@DOA,
Indeed!
Why put up these charts, Birinyi says if you look at the present you are ALWAYS pre-disposed to the bearish side. This is the new thing being spouted to every bearish commentor on CNBC. Here’s a little blast from the past, and Ed Yardeni recently referred to this guy as “one of the smartest technitians I know of”
Scroll to the bottom to see his 08 favorite stock: AIG!!!
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_53/b4065044231464_page_2.htm
August 14th, 2009 at 10:42 am
There’s so little actual “fiat” currency supporting all this debt. There’s still so much leverage out there, it’s unreal.
Someone had their finger stuck on the Sell button on the open. 980-985 would be important levels for the bulls to hold in the short term (circa SP futures).
@manahattan. don’t know about IPSU, but I’m thinking sugar lapses into sideways congestion next several days after that mini-blow off a few days ago.
August 14th, 2009 at 10:42 am
Yes Manny… you know my playbook.
My only question now, is if moving our deposits over to a local credit union makes any difference at all… I really despise the idea of keeping my cheese in a TARP bank. I dont know if thats just dumb ideology, or if there is any value to such a decision.
I cant help but think that most banks in this country, if forced to value their loan book today, would be insolvent. Why keep my assets at an insolvent bank? With the only hope being that the USG comes in to backstop them?
Would a credit union be any better in terms of liquidity, if I felt the need to “pull out” at any time? Open question.
Dont want to go all tinfoil on yall… but 5%… really? Really? Let’s be honest.
August 14th, 2009 at 10:44 am
@Mannwich started doing the same thing about a year ago, it is such a good feeling to see the debt amount get smaller and smaller and have finally gotten in the position where there is extra money, which I would like to start learning how to invest.
Maybe when where completely out of debt we can celibrate
Keep up the good work man.
August 14th, 2009 at 10:44 am
Let me clarify…
When I say “5%… really?” I mean I think the number is probably north of that… especially if they are shooting straight.
August 14th, 2009 at 10:46 am
@LeftBack:
Wipes sleep from eyes – Ohhhhhhh- I got you.
Amazingly even understood you.
August 14th, 2009 at 10:46 am
Seems like the “Consumer” is no longer being bluffed by this staged rally. Unlike companies which beat the numbers on declining revenues, the “Consumer” is not able to beat the number on declining salary. Very weird. The “Consumer” is not a team player, I must say.
In an unrelated news, Shanghai composite seems to have broken the 50 day MA and FXI at its 50 day support level.
August 14th, 2009 at 10:48 am
@Mortimer,
I agree it could take decades, even centuries, as it did in Rome’s era, but information, and therefore time, moves faster these days. It took Rome about 500 years to build an empire and another 500 years to lose it, but the 500 years of fading into oblivion were hardly happy ones.
@Franlin420D: The article is not talking about a 5% decrease in revenue–it is saying 5% of bank’s assets are non-performing, i.e. not earning interest and/or not likely to be paid back. 5% in bad assets is plenty enough to destroy an entity engaged in leveraged lending. If a bank that takes in $100 in deposits and lends out $90, keeping $10 in reserve, then loses 5% of the $90 it lent out, it now has $4.05 less in reserves, which it must somehow replace. This is one reason the Fed started paying interest on reserves that banks have to deposit with them–to help fill the capital hole caused by losses on the balance sheet. The greater the leverage, the less the net loss that can be absorbed without endangering the bank’s survivability. Commercial banks (officially) run about 10-12 times leverage, i.e., loans vs. reserves or capital. Investment banks were in the 30’s and 40’s before the fall. GS, however, knowing that it can’t fail unless the Fed fails, is running the leverage right back up to where it was, all their caterwalling to the contrary notwithstanding.
August 14th, 2009 at 10:50 am
A couple things: I will repeat, ad nauseam it seems, that with today’s monetary system of 1s and 0s, “fiat” supply is impossible to measure.. and further, the world is awash, drowning in money supply already… it’s like a swarm of bees seeking the next full bloom. recently a swarm seemed rather attracted to sugar..
Next, a fun index for us to bookmark: http://www.liv-ex.com/pages/static_page.jsp?pageId=100
Is that a downward sloping H&S in the works?
August 14th, 2009 at 10:51 am
@karen: In that vein, forgive me for being Mr. Obvious, but I think “money” is fast losing all of its supposed meaning.
August 14th, 2009 at 10:51 am
Savvy indicator there Mistress… thanks for the tip.
August 14th, 2009 at 10:53 am
@TC
Good explanation there on the effect of FRB…
A question…I’d heard that the Fed itself, (with what it’s taking onto its balance sheet is literally levered up in the high 20’s as we speak)…Have you heard about this, or, are capable of supplying any useful numbers?
August 14th, 2009 at 10:54 am
Here’s an example of a bank with holes in its balance sheet that only uproariously fantastic profits could ever fill:
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) — It’s amazing what a little sunshine can accomplish.
Check out the footnotes to Regions Financial Corp.’s latest quarterly report, and you’ll see a remarkable disclosure. There, in an easy-to-read chart, the company divulged that the loans on its books as of June 30 were worth $22.8 billion less than what its balance sheet said. The Birmingham, Alabama-based bank’s shareholder equity, by comparison, was just $18.7 billion.
So, if it weren’t for the inflated loan values, Regions’ equity would be less than zero. Meanwhile, the government continues to classify Regions as “well capitalized.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a04oVutXQybk
August 14th, 2009 at 10:56 am
@mannwich,
That is the best approach one can take and one that I have been telling who ever would listen to embark on since summer of 2007. I was never one to take on much credit so it was relatively easy for me to become debt free.
August 14th, 2009 at 10:56 am
tc Says-
“We are witnessing the slow-motion, self-induced implosion of an empire.”
empires are overrated- check out- Rome, Byzantine, Holy Roman, Sweden, France, Germany, Austro-Hungarian, British, USSR, Japan-
never seems to work out in the end-
doa Says-
“Frankly…at this stage in the game I’m more worried about Civil War rather than World War . . .I’m talking (vis-a-vis, this thread)…
- jingle mail
- utter disobedience (not paying loans back, not paying taxes, etc.)
- breakdown of commerce
undoubtedly- underground economy will become much stronger just to avoid giving uncle sam one thin dime-
i like cvienne’s idea about just flat our self sustainablity- trade and barter for what you don’t have- wonder how long before “revenuers’ start showing up armed with rifles- getting taxes at gunpoint.
August 14th, 2009 at 10:56 am
I-Man, LB has cash in a regional mid-size NY bank and trades through TD. No C, no Chase, no how.
Didja see that smash-mouth clash this week between US and Mexico? These boys do NOT like each other…!
“Mister Blankfein, I’m sorry, Sir, but I hit the wrong button this morning, I am over here from London for the summer and today I am all alone on the trading desk. My boss, C. Harding Huntenhooker III is out in the Hamptons today and I got this message as usual: “Sell the Twos and Buy the Spoos” but when I booted up the computer and ran the program marked “NYSE Market Simulation” something went terribly terribly wrong, and now I am worried about our VaR. Sincerely, Giles Straightarrow”
August 14th, 2009 at 10:57 am
wonder what it’ll do to the vaunted consumer confidence level when the masses see the headline that the “fdic is out of dough”????
August 14th, 2009 at 10:58 am
Here’s a thought – why would we, at this point, believe the validity/accuracy of any big publicly-traded corporate balance sheet? It seems to me they’re incented to monkey with the numbers all the time just like the Fed and the banks do. Just throwing it out there but it seems to me a valid question? Any accountants out there who can refute my theory? And don’t tell me about Sarbanes-Oxley. I’m sure that’s not much of a deterrent anymore, if it even ever was one.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:00 am
I agree with you, ahab. Mentioned the same thing this morning to my wife. Naked Capitalism has a post today about a possible debt revolt coming. If things don’t improve on Main Street soon enough (and it’s likely they won’t), then I see some real nastiness coming but in the end will probably good for this country. I can feel things turning again (or maybe that’s just a little gas).
August 14th, 2009 at 11:00 am
There’s so little actual “fiat” currency supporting all this debt. There’s still so much leverage out there, it’s unreal.
AT, that’s almost an understatement. Money is something like $50T in Credit and $2T in banknotes. In credit deflation, this is why cash is king, the dollars that survive become more valuable, but then again, according to almost everyone, the dollar collapse is an almost certainty.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:01 am
Manny: TMI. LOL.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:03 am
I thought I saw recently that BAC had 8% of it’s CRE portfolio as non-performing.
What’s coming together for me is that due to these continued losses I think I’m starting to understand why Gold has not yet shot to the moon.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:03 am
Better Alliteration:
Loser loans leave lenders lacking long-term liquidity.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:04 am
@lefty (10:56)
LMFAO
Sincerely,
Richard Weed
August 14th, 2009 at 11:05 am
re: debt revolt
as always tbp posters are ahead of the trend I think on this one. Anyone want to make any bets on whether or not the TALF can get extended in October. Looks like it would need to from where I’m sitting. If people call in to reps saying no to this, and they do it anyway, there could be some serious end results as people’s moods leave behind the optimism that has been building since March.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:06 am
@ben22: The wife just came down to my bunker basement office and told me she was at our neighbor’s house last night and their other friends from a nearby suburb said that friends of theirs in their neighborhood is going to stop paying their mortgage. Once word gets out and it becomes non-stigmatized to do this, this could catch on like wild-fire in some parts of the country. Watch and wait for it.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:07 am
@karen
Wine Index- That’s a completed “five” into the peak and we’ve seen the a-wave down and now in a b-wave sideways correction. There will be c-wave lower coming…
in re: “money”….When Americans lose faith and want actual real dollars in their hands, under their mattresses, how much do you think is really there? Do you really believe there’s enough base money out there to cover all the bad debts? It’s a debate that won’t be settled, obviously. It will be something understood “in the fullness of time.”
In the meantime, I going to be a patriot…I’m bullish the Greenback for next several months.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:08 am
@DOA:
Lending divided by the capital base defines leverage. For the Fed, which has as its capital base the “good faith and credit of the US Government”, i.e., that nonsense printed on a dollar bill, it would be hard to say what that amount is relative to its lending.
In more esoteric terms, the Fed Reserve Bank’s balance sheet is now about $2 trillion. We don’t know what its capital base is worth, because it won’t even identify what it owns outside of vague generalities. And the “capital base” of an institution that can freely print dollars is subject to be whatever it wants it to be. The question then becomes how much the good faith and credit of the US government is worth. I’d say less and declining with every bastardized dollar that is printed, but it’d be hard to pin a number on it.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:08 am
The irony is a debt revolt (people not paying their mortgage and other debt) could free up actual cash to be spent on the economy, assuming there’s any left by the revolters.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:08 am
No TALF extension without a second crash. Red October™, baby !!!
August 14th, 2009 at 11:08 am
@lefty
Actually, the memo I got from Lloyd this morning read:
“Would Mr. Benjamin Dover & Mr. C Howard Fields please report to the trading pits at once to buy my portfolio”…
August 14th, 2009 at 11:10 am
A couple of the comments here have been along the lines of going “local” with their money (going with a credit union, etc.). Absolutely. Go Local.
I’ve had my checking account with a local (Houston TX) bank for years, and have never been happier.
A few weeks ago, Chase Manhattan sent me a letter, informing me that my 7.99% fixed card was going to move to 10.99 + prime. As an aside, it’s the only credit card I’ve ever had, opened the account 11 years ago, and never been late on a payment.
I’ve been expecting the letter for a some time. I’ve been steadily paying down the balance for quite a while. Next year, it’ll be payed off, and I will be entirely debt-free.
So, I went with to a local credit union, and got 7.90% fixed.
Bye-Bye Chase. Go pound sand.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:10 am
Re: the debt revolt. No doubt in my mind. We’ve been talking about that here for months (as has Mish) and as this gets rolling it takes on momentum. The stigma is reduced as more people walk on their overwhelming debt and the animosity toward the banks and their outsized compensation in the middle of bailouts just helps the case.
The banks better start upping their default assumptions; this storm’s gonna hurt.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:11 am
@Onlooker: It’s the last card the people have to play and the one that will be most painful to the banks. I, for one, will enjoy seeing that happen.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:12 am
Marc Faber is calling for a dollar rally over the next year too now. Smart man; would think twice about betting against him.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:12 am
My bank has about 8% non performing loans to total assets and has to raise capital or face sale or liquidation. They also pay a great bonus, but only to top executives. I’m covered by FDIC, but does it make sense to put some in a bank that’s competently managed for when the Feds take over? This is a serious question. Any comments?
Also, any idea where interest rates will be this time next year? The Fed can’t keep buying them down forever. On the other hand, I think we will be in a deflationary economy except for asset prices which will still be inflated due to incompetent regulation of financial markets. Are Volker type 12% to 16% rates coming?
August 14th, 2009 at 11:15 am
OT: Dollar already made a bottom for this year. But it won’t break the down trend pattern until Fed stop buying the paper. The real rally will come later this year imo.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:16 am
@Manny,
That’s pretty crazy, That really can gather momentum. I’d say that the next 6 months are far more crucial than anything that has happened thus far.
@AT,
nice post at 11:07 re, is there enough money? There is no way to answer that, my guess is that there is not.
@LB,
I think that’s the only thing that could get it extended, if there isn’t a crash, and they shut that down early as a result, there will be trouble.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:16 am
An idiot question for any day traders out there.
Will there be a pump late afternoon today to keep the SP500 above the “psychologically important” mark of 1000 ? If that pump fails should we read anything from it ?
Or is this just OpEx turbulence happening a week early as opposed to 2 days early ?
August 14th, 2009 at 11:17 am
Mannwich
“The irony is a debt revolt (people not paying their mortgage and other debt) could free up actual cash to be spent on the economy, assuming there’s any left by the revolters.”
Exactly, because the only answer to our debt problems is to pay it off or default on it. Paying it off (talking just private debt here) is becoming increasingly questionable as wages fall and assets drop in value. So default is what we need to clear the balance sheets and get a new start. It’s just the way it is, no matter how painful it will be. And no matter how much you and I feel like it’s a moral indignity as people walk on their debts while having had fun with the toys they bought over the years. I hate it, but it’s where we are.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:18 am
from Cafe’ Americain’
“We are persuaded that the government is waiting for the next wave of failures, or some exogenous event of catastrophic proportion, to provide their rationale to take new aggressive action.”
what pray tell would those actions be? i mean once you are out of bullets?
ideas- and addition bank bailouts would be “civil disturbance” inducing
August 14th, 2009 at 11:19 am
@hobo,
fwiw, why not just hold some cash, I’ve got cash on hand, 100’s, just in case. I’m not sure FDIC insurance is all it’s cracked up to be.
re: faber on the dollar.
I subscribe to his stuff, he hasn’t really made any bad calls in well over a year that I can remember. Late last year he discussed 4 stocks to buy in/around November and all of them have since more than doubled in price. Faber is also very funny. Recently in his letter, in so many words, he advised younger people like me to move out of the US.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:20 am
@Onlooker: Agreed. I feel sick about those people but not everyone walking away bought those toys. Some played it right and are getting screwed royally. I, who have done the same (played it straight, what a fool!), would do precisely what they’re doing.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:21 am
More than necessary of the five hundred and thirty-five M.O.C. bought T.A.R.P. One having been strong-armed by GS’s 200 million tax-free holiday’d gangster turned bankster Treasury Secretary appointed by Shrub. They told 300:1 letters against in a democracy that they knew nothing! This was a financial coup d’etat and there have been no prosecutions. As far as I can see they bought the band-aid on the cancer of toxic waste in our name . Until the greatest scam-mantra “too big to fail” is reversed to “too big to succeed” and a bank holiday is immediately called to remove the cancer as if it were your body, there will be trivial remissions but no long-term recovery; the body waits for the surgeon.
Don’t take your eye off the crime.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:22 am
@IdiotInvestor2
The 60 minute chart pattern looks similar to Aug 11. If it breaks 992, I will be more convinced that we won’t see 1000 again. Otherwise stay put.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:22 am
@ Mortimus
“I remember “moral hazard” was all the rage last year, but for some reason we no longer hear the phrase in the media anymore. ”
It is fascinating (and horrifying) how the rising market acts as an anesthetic on the collective consciousness. I hear folks in the media on talk shows, for instance, that say things about how bad it still really is, unemployment, etc., but then they say “but the stock market is up, so it must be getting better somehow.” The notion that the market is all knowing is deeply ingrained in people, no matter how many times is proves unwarranted. Look at Roubini. He’s been turned by the rising market too, apparently.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:22 am
IdiotInvestor2 Says:
August 14th, 2009 at 11:16 am
Will there be a pump late afternoon today to keep the SP500 above the “psychologically important” mark of 1000 ? If that pump fails should we read anything from it ?
reply:
——–
Maybe, but it’s more likely that it will fall for a few days to sucker in some shorts. Also, rates need to come down and stay down for a while. A falling market creates a flight to safety from stocks and into bonds. This lowers rates, which is in the Fed’s interest now. They will encourage a stock pause and probably get one as a thank you for providing such fine bonuses this year to traders at GS. Then there will probably be one last pump to the stars before the free Fed money is used up.
If markets fall to around S&P900 and the headlines suddenly look optimistic, look out Nellie. This could be good for 15%. This, BTW, is my favorite prognostication for the near term. By end of year, maybe S&P 800 or well below.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:24 am
onlooker-
have to agree w/ my man mannwich-
it will be just your normal joes who did not heloc themselves w/ “stuff”- and they just fuck it- and give the finger to the “the man”-
August 14th, 2009 at 11:25 am
@Onlooker: Roubini is buddies with Summers and Geithner. Don’t lose sight of that fact.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:27 am
CNBC headline-
“BB&T to buy all Colonial Bancgroup branches: Report (story developing)”
I wonder if this is a forced marriage?
August 14th, 2009 at 11:27 am
We may see a pump today, or we could see SPX 975 – which is the clearest technical support level, where we would cover for the time being. Oil and gold are still weakening. Here at Schadenfreude, we are digging that.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:29 am
The next thing to “pump” the markets if we are in fact going to go much higher will be the positive GDP we will almost certainly print in Q3. All the extremes would show up in sentiment if that played out, almost all economists will call an end to the recession and some of the worst advisors will all the sudden be deemed “the light” again on CNBC and elsewhere (Kudlow, Cramer, Wesbury, Bowyer, etc.) Asset allocators and EMH lovers will be louder than ever, they will confirm that the market did in fact predict the recovery.
and then…….
August 14th, 2009 at 11:30 am
my wish on phi day is that I meet a bunch of guys named charlie that are buying stocks right now, so that at a later date I can tell them….
Sorry Charlie.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:31 am
“and some of the worst advisors will all the sudden be deemed “the light” again on CNBC and elsewhere (Kudlow, Cramer, Wesbury, Bowyer, etc.) Asset allocators and EMH lovers will be louder than ever, they will confirm that the market did in fact predict the recovery.”
ben – stop already- i feel nauseous
August 14th, 2009 at 11:32 am
I’m with you, lb. Enjoying my small DUG and DTO positions today. Wonder if I should sell and wait for the inevitable “buy the dips” rally?
August 14th, 2009 at 11:35 am
ahab,
wait till it actually happens. You know it will, if we get a smaller pullback here, maybe on the 8-10% range and then that plays out that’s what we’ll see. Does it make you any sicker than what they are already saying, that douche Dennis Kneale claims the recession is over every day, Don Luskin said on Kudlow the other night that he called the bottom to the day for these people, now Birinyi, who rec’d AIG as his favorite stock going into 2008 as I linked above, is getting hyped everywhere saying the S&P will be at 1700 over the next couple of years and will be higher at year end.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:37 am
Expat asks at 8:37 am “… any ideas?”
Join the government at some level .. imo the Socialist side would be easier to stomach when IT hits the fan. On the other hand the Fascist will probably take them out so choose sides wisely.
It is so much easier to tear apart than build as witnessed by:
call me ahab at 10:56 am “… getting taxes at gunpoint.”
August 14th, 2009 at 11:37 am
@ben22: That tool Wesbury was on Bloomberg radio last week (was listening in the car) and said that the S&P was still “40% undervalued at these levels”. Not kidding. What a clown.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:40 am
(edited for TBP)
Expat asks at 8:37 am “… any ideas?”
Join the government at some level .. imo the S’st side would be easier to stomach when IT hits the fan.
On the other hand the F’st will probably take them out so choose sides wisely.
It is so much easier to tear apart than build as witnessed by:
call me ahab at 10:56 am “… getting taxes at gunpoint.”
August 14th, 2009 at 11:50 am
Speaking of Wesbury, he is wetting his pants over a return to M2M accounting, as well he might:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a1Qa_Q_PbGWc
A return to M2M might be an orchestrated way of Tsy ensuring sell the Spoos and buy the 2s, 5s, 10s and 30s.
Think about it, what would you do if you were Tiny Tim fielding calls from Beijing every other day? Hu knows.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:52 am
hey mgnagy speaking of Chase Manhattan .. did you see the Times Sq kiss on this VJ day replay today .. Chemical Bank in the background .. unless it was photoshoped sorta like The Willey (ie Sears Tower)
August 14th, 2009 at 12:05 pm
@Manny (11:37)
That, I guess, would be the amount Wesbury needs to get back to even…
August 14th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
seriously RIGHT ON to Onlooker from Troy Says: at 11:17 am
“Paying it off is becoming increasingly questionable as wages fall and assets drop in value. So default is what we need”
… just how much hoarding (transfer) 1st … and gated self sustaining communities built
August 14th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
“I feel sick about those people but not everyone walking away bought those toys.”
Don’t get me wrong guys. I’m not saying that at all. I’m just saying that those who did are the ones who make me feel ill about this and that I get angry thinking about. I know there are plenty of others who are just trying to get by while being pummeled with medical costs, etc.
August 14th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
I said yesterday I don’t see this playing out until early ‘10 based on the skepticism still held by many. However if M2M is brought back all bets are off. The tickers will be burning as gravity takes hold. It will be like a meteroid hitting earth and plunging deeper in to the ground upon contact. I am sporting wood at the thought.
August 14th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
doa
Yep, you’re probably right. If Birinyi truly believes his own crap (which I’m not sure of), he was buying on margin all the way down in ‘08 and then got a margin call and had to sell half his portfolio in Feb ‘09. That would hurt and put you way behind, thus needing something like 1700 to break even again.
These guys make me ill. I was listening to a Bloomberg radio podcast yesterday and they had Jim Glassman from JPM on, and I just couldn’t take it for more than a few minutes. These guys are either very naive and stupid for thinking we’ve got any chance of bouncing out of this with vigorous recovery, or they’re just plain evil for trying to lure the uninformed into the market with that notion. It’s just stomach turning, whichever is the truth. And I can’t listen to it; though I do for short periods, just to keep touch with what these idiots are saying.
August 14th, 2009 at 12:18 pm
“gated self sustaining communities built”
Growing arugula on the golf course? Not much use in the end really, ask Louis Quatorze, aka the Sun King.
LB wants to be far away in the country when this thing finally goes off. Looking at farmland, like cvienne.
August 14th, 2009 at 12:22 pm
You’re not the only one…
August 14th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
Friday night Tribute in order?
Rashied Ali, free-jazz drummer, dies in NYC at 76
http://music.msn.com/music/article.aspx?news=426079>1=28102
August 14th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
lb-
“and gated self sustaining communities built’
i took this as survivalists banding together- from the gist of the post- to protect what resources they had from outsiders- thus the hoarding reference-
no?
August 14th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
Oh yeah, by the way. Boycott the big banks, for crying out loud. Why anybody lets these crooks hold their money (with some exceptions) is beyond me. Credit Unions are the best choice, followed by the smaller community and regional banks (the ones who aren’t on the cusp of insolvency due to CRE loans).
Starve the beast!
(If you’re eligible I highly recommend USAA; military and family, in general. Great online banking and super customer service with no fees.)
August 14th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Farm land? Already got it. A hundred miles out of town. Can get there in five days walking or 2 hours driving. Plenty of guns and ammo to carry along the way.
Debt Revolt? Don’t have any debt, but I’m considering, just for the hell of it.
Here’s how to properly revolt: Run up your credit cards till they’re over their limits, pull all the equity out of your house with one of those new, 97% loan-to-value, high-dollar FHA loans, hell even pawn the title to your car–convert all the proceeds, as much as possible, to cash or cash substitutes (and I don’ t mean asset-backed commercial paper), and leave town.
It’s what bankruptcy clients of mine always did prior to bankruptcy(except the leaving town part–they just went bankrupt). Was it legal? No, creditors could have come after them for fraudulent conveyances, etc. Did they ever? Not that I ever saw–just too much trouble for the money.
It will work for you.
August 14th, 2009 at 12:41 pm
Gold traders must be just mumbling to themselves…..all Gold has done this year is congest in what looks like a huge triangle. Excitement is just around the corner….wish I knew which way it was going to break. In this position, it’s impossible to tell which way it’s going to go…but a $150/oz move is in the offing very soon….
August 14th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
@Curm: I’ve already thought of that one. That’s going to be our own personal bailout if our own personal financial armageddon hits. Have many cards with high balances (probably up to nearly $200K or so) that haven’t yet been tapped. I hate paying the annual fees on these cards, but I figure they’re worth keeping in case things get ugly for us too.
August 14th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
@AT: This morning’s CPI was a loud raspberry to the gold bugs. If the dollar continues to firm up, look out below.
Frankly, LB is surprised that gold didn’t begin to crumble immediately after the Fed’s announcement ending QE.
August 14th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
Exactly LB.
The only wrench in gold right now is the panic trade… but the forces of the dollar and yen may kill that before it even starts, no?
August 14th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
Does anyone seriously think that if the shit really does hit the fan that hard that simply having a farm and access to your own food is going to pull you through? If it ever truly got that bad the government would just confiscate everything out of national interest. If it got as bad as I get the impression many of you think it could, you’d have millions of hungry urbanites trampling the countryside in search of food.
August 14th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
gold is going down, we’ll see it once the dollar starts to climb. just my thought on that, and then someday, you’ll need to be all out of dollars and into gold.
August 14th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
My two cents says gold breaks down.. that’s not to say i would short it. 860ish is an easy target.. but it should get lower than that. I will not attempt to short it, again, however. I have three main reasons for seeing this: first, i’m a dollar bull right now. second, the charts. and third, there are too many new gold holders in 2009 that haven’t had to pay their dues, yet.
August 14th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
At the risk of sounding like a real kook…
They aint confiscating shit from me. I got 15 reasons they wont.
August 14th, 2009 at 12:53 pm
Curmudgeon: I think calculated debt default strategies have happened and are in the process of happening. I know families in this position. Just continue to run up the credit card debt, save the cash, and then just DK all the creditors. As has been pointed out, there will be less and less stigma associated with personal bankruptcies and credit problems in the future….”everyone’s doing it…” That’s when the shit really hits the fan….you get a large group of people who just don’t care about the sanctity of contracts or obligations…you’ll get sort of an anarchy thing going on…could be “interesting.”
August 14th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
I-Man – If society ever really does collapse we’re all screwed. Doesn’t matter what kind of bunker, farmland, ammo, etc anyone has. Unless you live in a cave, or a very remote area in the mountains there is just no physical way a small group of people could fend of millions.
Imagine this if you will – you live in Ohio or Iowa, society falls apart, people are starving en mass. You’ve suddenly got 20 million people from the largest cities in the midwest (Chicago, Indianapolis, Cleavland) all roaming the country side in search of food. In this group of people you have tens of thousands of ex military, current gang members . . . .
I know this is an exercise in giant what-ifs. But seriously, I’d like to know how anyone here thinks they could survive that?
August 14th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
Kind of scary, ain’t it Andy? If confidence in the money system and respect for law and contracts start to go, along with rationalization of the morality angle, that’s a recipe for chaos, indeed.
That’s where these policy choices are taking us though. They don’t understand what they’re creating here by propping up the banking oligarchs and the stock market. They’re spitting in the face of the struggling folks and that’s just going to piss them off and unleash their anger stoked by desperation.
August 14th, 2009 at 12:59 pm
Scariest thing I’ve read all day, from MS’s Downunder Daily dated today, “Lehman’s failure has not, in a market sense, left a trace.” Will these be famous last words?? A bit more: “Indeed, some indicators suggest
that not only was there no Lehman collapse, but there was no credit crisis.” The author, the super intelligent Gerard Minack, does go on to say, “This either marks a major success for policy makers or – with liquidity loose, funding costs low, and risk spreads narrowing – threatens a recurrence of the mistakes of the last cycle.”
August 14th, 2009 at 12:59 pm
karen,
couldn’t agree more. they have vending machines overseas selling gold right now. way too crowded.
August 14th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
Ben22 & Others,
Sorry BR, slightly off topic…I was curious to know if Faber’s Doom & gloom report was worth the $200 annual investment?
August 14th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
“you get a large group of people who just don’t care about the sanctity of contracts or obligations…you’ll get sort of an anarchy thing going on…could be “interesting.”
I know- isn’t it cool!!!
walk away people- just walk away
August 14th, 2009 at 1:03 pm
“You’ve suddenly got 20 million people from the largest cities in the midwest (Chicago, Indianapolis, Cleavland) all roaming the country side in search of food.”
sounds like “Night of the Living Dead”
August 14th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
….”everyone’s doing it…”
Indeed, Andy, that’s what these people said when they were buying the McMansions and Hummers.
“you’d have millions of hungry urbanites trampling the countryside in search of food.”
Remember LA riots? Supermarkets first, then the suburbs are closer, Thor – it’s easier to get to Greenwich than all the way out to the farm. Of course the banksters will be gone, they really will have to leave the country in the end. Everything is cyclical, and we have just been through a generational low in anger, violence and crime.
August 14th, 2009 at 1:06 pm
@ Thor:
“or a very remote area in the mountains”
Ta fari.
Alright, enough of this chatter… cant be giving away all my secrets… like the underground tunnel between CV and I’s farm.
August 14th, 2009 at 1:11 pm
Sorry, didn’t mean to stray too far off topic. Have always had a thing for end of the world sci-fi so I’ve read about a hundred different scenarios for how society could collapse and how people react.
August 14th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
Interesting that so many diverse people had the same idea of having remote farmland available. It shows how thin many of us think the veneer of civilization really is in this country.
Andy, I would like to see a pump/rally to SPX 1005 – and then fail.
August 14th, 2009 at 1:13 pm
hrux,
not if you are looking for actual stock advice, it’s more general usually and he typically doesn’t give exact investment advice outside of mentioning a few names here and there. I would still buy it even if I couldn’t deduct the cost though, as I said above, his trend calls have been spot on since this all started so being aware most likely would have saved you more than the fee, plus sometimes he includes guest supplements to read, there were some lately about things such as pension issues on the horizon that were valuable.
I haven’t forgotten about your request from a few months ago, we are finalizing our move in the coming two months.
August 14th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
@leftback: Take a look at Leelanau County, MI for some great farmland within a stone’s throw of Lake MI. I had those thoughts of buying some land up there on the cheap while on vacation. Just a gorgeous spot. Brutal winters with tons of snow, but very pretty up there.
August 14th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
guys don’t forget either than these things will move in fractals, given the sheer size of the debt, and the decline and wealth destruction, the eventual repercussions that show up over the next decade or so should be more extreme than what has been seen in the past. In looking at very long term charts, or using charts that trace all the way back to brit. stocks in the 1700’s you can see this play out in the DOW.
August 14th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
@ LB:
I and I would like to see a bounce here too. Looking to close SCO if USO has a double bottom confirmed here in the coming minutes on the 5 min chart.
However, if the dollar should miraculously continue to new highs today ( UUP ) I might be enticed to let it (SCO) ride a bit more into the close.
August 14th, 2009 at 1:25 pm
ben, you are in serious Prechter/Mandelbrot territory…. probably best not to bring that up with retail clients, bud.
OK chaps, let’s watch the pump. I’ve already got mine today. I-Man, I and I is doing much the same.
August 14th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
Thor says “I’d like to know how anyone here thinks they could survive that?”
heres a tip for u’all .. bet on Disaster Capitalism … (in a properly built and supplied gated community)
August 14th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
lb,
no kidding. fractals aren’t really a part of meeting discussion, way too much for the peeps I work with. I did a presentation last night at a healthcare businesswoman’s association event. About 35 attendees. They didn’t like much what I had to say about the near term threats to the market. One person asked me how come so many economists seemed positive if there were still so many risks, I had a little laugh before I answered that question.
August 14th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
@benn22… was it one of those little laughs that out of nowhere made you crack up on the drive home?
The sheeple and numb-nuts on CNBC talk about the market being forwarding looking “6 months down the road” and all that. However the markets are looking at a few minutes down the road down the road with the algorithm trading at big institutions, a few hours down the road for MarketWatch and CNBC “journalism”, and a day or two down the road for the sheeple. Not to bring up the blog vs. MSM debate again but it seems the only people looking 6 months down the road are “the crazies” on blogs.
August 14th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
“in a properly built and supplied gated community”
Armageddon?
August 14th, 2009 at 2:05 pm
mcHappy,
actually, I laughed about it again this morning, but that was after I heard Joe Kernan say to El Erian, but Birinyi says if you focus on today blah blah blah…. then El Erian gave that puzzled look and said: I am looking forward. Kernan of course responded with, isn’t PIMCO a bond house?
That made me think of last night again and crack up.
August 14th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
Q: What’s the difference between an Arab banker and an American banker?
A: The Arab banker can’t wait to get out of work to find a hookah.
August 14th, 2009 at 5:06 pm
Way late to this thread…but CV…the farm owner could not help offering this piece of advice…
vis-a-vis GATED COMMUNITIES
“Fixed fortifications are a monument to the stupidity of man.”
General George S. Patton
August 14th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
LB and others – I’m new to this BP blog, but was thinking the same thing – how funny it is that so many people here are posting about buying farmland. Maybe I’m slower than y’all, but I was just thinking the same thing this week as I was reading through “The Right Game” by Andrew Lees. You can get it somewhere on the BP – in the book club section, I think. I’m only on chapter 3, but the picture he paints is fascinating. If he’s right, massive economic shrinkage seems inevitable regardless of the immediate market b.s. He talks about how a declining world population will impact the global economy and it seems inevitable that major contraction will occur in the next 50 years. Combine more and more expensive energy, and it is pretty scary. Forget about free markets and politics and all that b.s. With fewer people in the workforce, the economy shrinks, and it can spiral downward quickly. Almost like a continuous deleveraging cycle for a long long time.
With that as a backdrop, how do you set up your family for the best chance of a quality life? What do you invest in today for security? I don’t think it’s gold, or other “currency”. To me, it seems you secure the absolute necessities – lot’s of land that has water and you can farm. If you have money after that, buy cash flow – go with energy sources. Now, before you guys impale me bare with me – I’m thinking renewable energies are the way to go. I’m not saying they solve the world’s energy problems – and i’m not an earth worshiper in any remote sense. But I’m saying that you can cherry pick a few good ones that offer good steady cash flow. But, IMO, you need to invest in the projects, not the companies doing the projects, so there’s limited to access to those. I am fortunate to have access to those deals (wind). But I have no land. Gotta work on that.
How can anyone consciously buy a stock today as an investment? It’s a freaking crap shoot where the rules are rigged. Actually, no. You don’t even know all the rules because they haven’t been made up yet! May as well go to the real casino where the rules / odds are at least static.
August 14th, 2009 at 10:33 pm
LB and others – I’m new to this BP blog, but was thinking the same thing – how funny it is that so many people here are posting about buying land. Maybe I’m slower than y’all, but I was just thinking the same thing this week as I was reading through “The Right Game” by Andrew Lees. It’s got me thinking. I’m only on chapter 3, but it is fascinating so far. Forget about free markets and politics and all that “b.s.” He says global demographics and expensive energy has us doomed.
With that as a backdrop, what do you invest in today for the long term? I don’t think it’s gold, or other “currency”. To me, it seems you secure the absolute necessities – lot’s of land that has water and you can farm. If you have money after that, buy cash flow – go with energy sources. Now, before you guys impale me bare with me – I’m thinking renewable energies are the way to go. I’m not saying they solve the world’s energy problems – and i’m not an earth worshiper in any remote sense. But I’m saying that you can cherry pick a few good ones that offer good steady cash flow. But, IMO, you need to invest in the projects themselves.
How can anyone consciously play the market today? May as well go to the real casino where the rules / odds are at least static.