ADP Private Employment Downside Surprise
By Barry Ritholtz - August 5th, 2009, 9:45AM
I have to hop on a conference call, but a quick note on ADP, which estimated a 371,000 drop on private sector jobs. This was higher than economists consensus forecast.
Note that I remain unimpressed with ADP’s ability to forecast BLS data.
Related news also saw the Challenger Gray & Christmas Layoff report: Monthly Corporate layoff announcements rose 31% in July 2009 (the first monthly increase since January). Over at Marketwatch, Rex Nutting notes that over “the first seven months of the year, layoff announcements are up 72% compared with the same period a year ago.”
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Source:
The ADP National Employment Report
July, 2009
http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/
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August 5th, 2009 at 10:23 am
“It is of course worse than expected, but the number is well off its highs, indicating modest improvement in the labor market,” said Dan Greenhaus, an analyst with Miller Tabak & Co. in New York.
– from AP news report
Finally, someone admits to worse-than-expected. He just couldn’t help not making reference to the second derivative, though.
Someone please ring the bell at the top!
August 5th, 2009 at 10:33 am
Indeed Cursive. You can just smell the desperation, can’t you? Grasping at straws.
August 5th, 2009 at 10:58 am
@ Onlooker
We know this thing will crack. My main regret at the moment is that, lost in all of our (i.e. realists that post here and elsewhere) disbelief at this three-ring circus of green shoots is how truly bad the economy is in America. I do not want to revive the heated, third world talk from yesterday’s thread. I believe this is the greatest county in the world and I wouldn’t want to live anywhere else; however, with the news out of Jefferson County, Alabama, we have to begin to ask ourselves where we are going. Things of this nature simply should not happen in America.
August 5th, 2009 at 11:17 am
>>Note that I remain unimpressed with ADP’s ability to forecast BLS data.
let’s be careful here barry. ADP doesn’t do the actual forecasting. they merely provide the payroll related data on their over 500,000 client companies to Macroeconomic Advisors who use their own internally developed algorithms. In addition one shouldn’t compare the ADP report to the BLS report for a variety of reasons. Your position assumes the BLS report is the authority of which all other forecasts should be compared to. That might be the market perception which is important but i’ll take ADP’s real on the ground data over the government’s any day.
August 5th, 2009 at 11:18 am
All bad news
and the market is not up?
Something’s fishy out there.
August 5th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
“All bad news
and the market is not up?
Something’s fishy out there.”
Eh.
Rebound from the lows, finish down 1 point. CNBC: “Rebounded 100 points! BULL MARKET!”
August 5th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
Cursive,
Jefferson county is a swirling sea of corruption. Birmingham itself is a hellhole. The south suburbs, Mountain Brook and Hoover aren’t as crime ridden, with Mountain Brook being a refuge for all the snobby super rich that fled Birmingham decades ago. The US representative for most of Birmingham is under investigation, and here in Alabama there’s a high corruption threshold. So he must have really had his hand in the cookie jar. If the rest of the country were as bad off, we’d be a 3rd World nation.
August 5th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
“Note that I remain unimpressed with ADP’s ability to forecast BLS data.”
And I remain unimpressed on BLS ability to gather the right data.
August 5th, 2009 at 6:35 pm
Cisco exceeded expectations on layoffs!
During fiscal fourth quarter, Cisco exceeded its annual target of cost savings of $1.5 billion. This included job cuts, which Mr. Chambers said exceeded the high end of the 1,500 to 2,000 range it previously gave.
August 5th, 2009 at 8:37 pm
I guess this means we’re heading for another challenged gray Christmas?