Comments on: Four Stages of Secular Bear Markets

By: The Most Hated Rally in Wall Street History | The Big Picture

The Most Hated Rally in Wall Street History | The Big Picture — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 16:02:23 +0000

[...] Historical Secular Bear Markets: As discussed in August, secular bear markets tend to get massively oversold, then see a huge bounce. The chart below shows [...]

By: Is the Rally Ending, or Does it Have More to Go? | The Big Picture

Is the Rally Ending, or Does it Have More to Go? | The Big Picture — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 00:42:06 +0000

[...] 4) History shows that secular bear markets have deep selloffs and huge rallies; this current rally still has room to run based upon a composite of prior cycles (See Four Stages of Secular Bear Markets). [...]

By: Naive Contrarian-ism | The Big Picture

Naive Contrarian-ism | The Big Picture — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 11:07:42 +0000

[...] The contrarian view isn’t betting on the collapse, its looking at what will frustrate the most amount of people. I suspect that a continued rally higher would have that effect, despite the historical post crash patterns. [...]

By: Weekend Reads: Fastest Growing Companies of 2009 Edition | Steadfast Finances

Mon, 31 Aug 2009 02:47:26 +0000

[...] Big Picture located a graphic which tracks the stock market performance of 19 of the last major bear markets. Like other traders, I’ve been calling for a pullback in this market for a while (incorrectly [...]

By: Weekend Recap – August 30, 2009

Weekend Recap – August 30, 2009 — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 16:08:24 +0000

[...] Barry Ritholz of The Big Picture provides an analysis of market rebounds and corrections during a secular bear market. [...]

By: hammerandtong2001

hammerandtong2001 — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 00:02:55 +0000

I had an interesting discussion with a private investor, former Goldman MD, currently looking at hard assets: timber, metals, etc. He was quite convinced of two things: the dollar is headed south, and the US will re-live a 9/11-like event within the next 5 years.

I know it’s fashionable and likely smart to view the current equity run-up as a temporoary reprive in what may be a secular bear.

And there are indeed a lot of things that are different this time, including the resilience of the American people, and the resevoir of financial strength we can draw on. It’s a much bigger and more powerful economy than 1972, and multiples more powerful than 1935.

No one’s ever made a penny betting against America — and that’s been true for over 200 years. What’s going to change that now?

By: jbr

jbr — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 20:48:23 +0000

I would agree with most commenters but then the consensus seems to be wildly one-sided on the bearish side. And, we hear the words – this time its different for this bear market (just like we have heard for bull markets before). In either case it hasn’t been different and the consensus has suffered.

Almost no one believes in a V recovery – well what if we get it? If I’ve learnt one thing it is to not completely disregard a possibility.

The one way a V recovery is possible if the dollar falls further – equities will march higher in that case. Personally, I’m on the look out for a currency crisis – maybe the Yuan fixed peg is changed.

By: Weekend Reading 8/28/09 | Surfview Capital

Weekend Reading 8/28/09 | Surfview Capital — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 18:43:33 +0000

[...] fully agree with this assessment of where we are long term in the [...]

By: WaveCatcher

WaveCatcher — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 14:10:28 +0000

Hey, who stole my purple crayon!

Nice chart, I am sure it will help MS collect more AUM.

By: Still Uncertain - Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing - InvestorsInsight.com | Financial Intelligence, Advice & Research / Investment Strategies & Planning for Individual Investors.

Fri, 28 Aug 2009 13:38:00 +0000

[...] The four stages of a bear market (short and must read): http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/aftermath-of-secular-bear-markets/   Individual investors are not as bullish as the pros. (Typically, individual [...]