Comments on: Deutsche Bank: Construction Loan Defaults Coming

By: Construction Loans Crumbling | Jameson

Construction Loans Crumbling | Jameson — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 21:50:22 +0000

[...] Deutsche Bank: Construction Loan Defaults Coming – Barry Ritholtz – The Big Picture R… [...]

By: JustinTheSkeptic

JustinTheSkeptic — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 20:36:16 +0000

There is only one way for this market to go and that is up, up and up! Who cares about CRE, just another reason to crash the dollar…and we all know that a weak dollar is great for the stock market. Don’t we? Sell your bonds jump into the stock market where nominal gains can be made hand over fist.

By: call me ahab

call me ahab — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 20:22:39 +0000

jdamon-

the problem is that you are up against a money printing machine and tacit agreement between the the Fed/Treasury and the market makers to reflate asset prices-

tough odds- SKF is now $29- ( a 2X finance inverse)- its high was over $300- tough to compete agsinst the program trading and the creation of money at will

By: emmanuel117

emmanuel117 — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 19:53:36 +0000

@jdamon33:

I’d wait until National Day (October 1) before thinking about FXP.

By: Jdamon33

Jdamon33 — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 19:27:00 +0000

My oh my, my FAZ has just gotten destroyed these past three months. I keep holding on believing reality will once again set-in, but no luck. Do I hold or do I fold?

My FXP has actually gotten hit even worse….. China, the market that keeps on going up and up and up…….

By: Onlooker from Troy

Onlooker from Troy — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 18:58:43 +0000

Extend and pretend baby! And then hand the bill to the taxpayers and all their descendants, until the generation down the road finally defaults and and curses our names, writing us into the history books as one of the most selfish, irresponsible and immoral eras to ever come down the pike (oops, slipped into a rant)

Oh yeah, BKX is up 3+% today. Nothing to see here.

By: drey

drey — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 18:42:01 +0000

Thanks, jr, for that link. And thanks, heditor, for that insightful post.

By: I-Man

I-Man — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 18:12:50 +0000

Whats this? Reality? Who needs that shit anymore?!

Theres a new paradigm at work here and its called…

“Just buy the KBE and the IYR, all will be fine.”

By: jr

jr — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 18:09:06 +0000

drey,

CR has pointed out the number of bank failure will be much less, but has also pointed out that banks today are also much larger in size and have more branches than in earlier days:

“Of course the number of banks isn’t the only measure. Many banks today have more branches, and far more assets and deposits. ”

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/07/fdic-bank-failures-update.html

By: heditor

heditor — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 17:53:55 +0000

Also add that construction loans are IO, while perm financing is now an amortizing world. Increase in debt service is a shock, if they can even get permanent financing.