Comments on: Green Shoots? Not Retail Sales or Unemployment Claims http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/green-shoots-not-retail-sales-or-unemployment-claims/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 23:28:32 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: Green Shoots? Not Retail Sales or Unemployment Claims http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/green-shoots-not-retail-sales-or-unemployment-claims/comment-page-4/#comment-204163 Green Shoots? Not Retail Sales or Unemployment Claims Fri, 14 Aug 2009 14:35:09 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=35358#comment-204163 [...] Sobering data for those that choose to take off their rose colored glasses. Maybe soon the SPYs and QQQQs won’t look so rosy. Posted in Uncategorized « How Long Until This Seems Like A Good Idea? [...] [...] Sobering data for those that choose to take off their rose colored glasses. Maybe soon the SPYs and QQQQs won’t look so rosy. Posted in Uncategorized « How Long Until This Seems Like A Good Idea? [...]

]]> By: franklin420d http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/green-shoots-not-retail-sales-or-unemployment-claims/comment-page-4/#comment-204045 franklin420d Fri, 14 Aug 2009 02:29:10 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=35358#comment-204045 Ben22 thank you for the incouragement, and you are correct, I figure if anyone can learn to swim in these waters they should be able to do very well when things calm down. TBP and you guys have been an invaluable resouce. There is so much of this stuff they should be teaching us in school, but instead they want us to trust in the government. Ben22 thank you for the incouragement, and you are correct, I figure if anyone can learn to swim in these waters they should be able to do very well when things calm down. TBP and you guys have been an invaluable resouce. There is so much of this stuff they should be teaching us in school, but instead they want us to trust in the government.

]]> By: ben22 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/green-shoots-not-retail-sales-or-unemployment-claims/comment-page-4/#comment-204038 ben22 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 01:15:09 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=35358#comment-204038 f420, regarding picking now to swim, this will be the most exciting time for the market in probably most or all of our lifetimes, what better time to start learning about it. f420,

regarding picking now to swim, this will be the most exciting time for the market in probably most or all of our lifetimes, what better time to start learning about it.

]]> By: BlueLoveMachine http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/green-shoots-not-retail-sales-or-unemployment-claims/comment-page-4/#comment-204033 BlueLoveMachine Fri, 14 Aug 2009 00:57:05 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=35358#comment-204033 InmyO, XRT is an interesting short . It is not dominated by any one retailer like RTH, and it trades for the same price it did in January '08, which is what first got my attention. I am long some Dec and March puts. I have some bids lower for more. Pump it up you fat bastards. InmyO, XRT is an interesting short . It is not dominated by any one retailer like RTH, and it trades for the same price it did in January ’08, which is what first got my attention.

I am long some Dec and March puts. I have some bids lower for more. Pump it up you fat bastards.

]]> By: call me ahab http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/green-shoots-not-retail-sales-or-unemployment-claims/comment-page-4/#comment-203986 call me ahab Thu, 13 Aug 2009 22:49:02 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=35358#comment-203986 f420 Says- "And BTW I am not “The Fake” franklin I am “The Baked” franklin.' LMAO- dude- you are a multi-layered super cool dude- party on and be most excellent to others f420 Says-

“And BTW I am not “The Fake” franklin I am “The Baked” franklin.’

LMAO-

dude- you are a multi-layered super cool dude- party on and be most excellent to others

]]> By: Whammer http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/green-shoots-not-retail-sales-or-unemployment-claims/comment-page-4/#comment-203983 Whammer Thu, 13 Aug 2009 22:42:01 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=35358#comment-203983 JOSB looks like a short to me, but that is more a gut feel than anything. Anecdote -- Kohl's had a big sale going last weekend. Their P/S is about 1.0, pretty high for retailers (same P/S for JOSB I notice). Anyway, big sale, limited time, no sales tax, 20% off everything, bunch of stuff marked down already, etc. I took my son there for some back to school shopping, we bought 3 pairs of pants, 3 shirts, one pair of shoes, and a small kitchen appliance for $135 total. The store was packed, the checkout lines were long, and it took 30 minutes (maybe longer) to check out. But, the kicker is that there were lots of people in line with one or two items. They weren't loading up, even though it was a perfect opportunity to load up. My read is that they were taking the opportunity to buy things they really needed, cheaply. The waiting in long lines to save $15 or so didn't strike me as a hallmark of a healthy retail environment. This is in Silicon Valley, FWIW. JOSB looks like a short to me, but that is more a gut feel than anything.

Anecdote — Kohl’s had a big sale going last weekend. Their P/S is about 1.0, pretty high for retailers (same P/S for JOSB I notice).

Anyway, big sale, limited time, no sales tax, 20% off everything, bunch of stuff marked down already, etc. I took my son there for some back to school shopping, we bought 3 pairs of pants, 3 shirts, one pair of shoes, and a small kitchen appliance for $135 total.

The store was packed, the checkout lines were long, and it took 30 minutes (maybe longer) to check out. But, the kicker is that there were lots of people in line with one or two items. They weren’t loading up, even though it was a perfect opportunity to load up. My read is that they were taking the opportunity to buy things they really needed, cheaply. The waiting in long lines to save $15 or so didn’t strike me as a hallmark of a healthy retail environment.

This is in Silicon Valley, FWIW.

]]> By: franklin420d http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/green-shoots-not-retail-sales-or-unemployment-claims/comment-page-4/#comment-203973 franklin420d Thu, 13 Aug 2009 21:55:44 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=35358#comment-203973 elsobo - At this point most of this is over my head (And it is nice to have someone like Thor here, to ask questions I did not know should be asked) But the longer I stay in the pool the better swimmer I will be. From reading the way many of you are posting, it sounds like the waters have never been so unsettled and terbulant - And I pick NOW to take swimming lessons. But if I learn to survive swimming in such trecherous waters, how much better will it be when we eventually come to a clear lagoon. But I can only start to learn with they tools I have been given and one of those is humor, so thank you. And BTW I am not "The Fake" franklin I am "The Baked" franklin. elsobo -

At this point most of this is over my head (And it is nice to have someone like Thor here, to ask questions I did not know should be asked) But the longer I stay in the pool the better swimmer I will be.

From reading the way many of you are posting, it sounds like the waters have never been so unsettled and terbulant – And I pick NOW to take swimming lessons.

But if I learn to survive swimming in such trecherous waters, how much better will it be when we eventually come to a clear lagoon.

But I can only start to learn with they tools I have been given and one of those is humor, so thank you.

And BTW I am not “The Fake” franklin I am “The Baked” franklin.

]]> By: batmando http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/green-shoots-not-retail-sales-or-unemployment-claims/comment-page-4/#comment-203948 batmando Thu, 13 Aug 2009 20:46:18 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=35358#comment-203948 @ben22 at 4:17 pm anyone looking at retailer shorts at all for the coming weeks/months? at the close today... nibbled at TZA also took some ZSL those households with one (or two) unemployed will buy the bare minimum in supplies & clothes will be interesting to see just how heavily the mass merchandisers have laid in inventory, i.e., they may count on a sell-through of a lighter-than-usual initial inventory, thus no (or smaller) big after-school starts close-out sales. @ben22 at 4:17 pm
anyone looking at retailer shorts at all for the coming weeks/months?
at the close today…
nibbled at TZA
also took some ZSL
those households with one (or two) unemployed will buy the bare minimum in supplies & clothes
will be interesting to see just how heavily the mass merchandisers have laid in inventory, i.e., they may count on a sell-through of a lighter-than-usual initial inventory, thus no (or smaller) big after-school starts close-out sales.

]]> By: elsebo http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/green-shoots-not-retail-sales-or-unemployment-claims/comment-page-4/#comment-203945 elsebo Thu, 13 Aug 2009 20:41:33 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=35358#comment-203945 Well, I didn't know that there is a new Franklin on this board (and I'm not talking about super funny fake Franklin) - DeDude - a happy go lucky Franklin-On-Steroids. Check this MSM report from first page of very popular Marketwatch.com about the great success of Cash for Clunkers http://www.marketwatch.com/story//us-stock-market-disheartened-by-weak-spending-2009-08-13 Subtitled: 'Clunkers' dent retail sales Well, I didn’t know that there is a new Franklin on this board (and I’m not talking about super funny fake Franklin) – DeDude – a happy go lucky Franklin-On-Steroids.

Check this MSM report from first page of very popular Marketwatch.com about the great success of Cash for Clunkers
http://www.marketwatch.com/story//us-stock-market-disheartened-by-weak-spending-2009-08-13

Subtitled: ‘Clunkers’ dent retail sales

]]> By: call me ahab http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/green-shoots-not-retail-sales-or-unemployment-claims/comment-page-4/#comment-203943 call me ahab Thu, 13 Aug 2009 20:37:13 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=35358#comment-203943 also- re back to school- school usually starts the tuesday after labor day- labor day this year is on the 7th- a bit later than normal- so school will start on the 8th also- re back to school- school usually starts the tuesday after labor day- labor day this year is on the 7th- a bit later than normal- so school will start on the 8th

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