NFP: Upside or Downside Surprise?
I am hitting the road to got to David Kotok’s Shadow Federal Reserve meeting in Grand Lake Stream, Maine (I will have access to internet while up north).
Before I head off to La Guardia, I wanted to post these two charts.
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Looking at the ADP and Challenger data suggests payrolls might be better than expected:
(Thanks MH!)
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But looking at Bruce Murray’s analysis (He is CEO of WANTED USA), we reach a different conclusion:
Bruce adds:
Following up from our prior exchange, our July forecast for Non-Farm payrolls shows a loss of 440,000 jobs. More information is here: http://hdi.wantedanalytics.com/, and I’ve pasted a chart below.
If you are interested in following our forecasts of monthly changes in US Non-Farm Employment, you can find them here: http://hdi.wantedanalytics.com/monthly-bls-forecast/
Because we use data collected from online job boards, we can produce a forecast earlier than other estimates. (Ours comes out two weeks prior to the BLS figures.) Also, over the past 30 months, our forecasts have been more accurate than the so-called “Consensus Estimates.”
The data we collect is also supplied to The Conference Board which uses it to produce its monthly Help Wanted Online Data Series. That’s here: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/helpwantedOnline.cfm
I am inclined towards the latter argument . . .
August 6th, 2009 at 9:53 am
Hook a landlocked salmon on the fly… while fighting off the smallies… and the black flies. I love GLS. Enjoy yourself up there BR.
August 6th, 2009 at 10:06 am
Trimtabs says -488 for July.Actual results will be less worse than some forecast and that will be the basis for the headline!
TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy lost 488,000 jobs in July, considerably more than the consensus estimate of a loss of 305,000 jobs. In addition, TrimTabs expects the Bureau of Labor Statistics to revise its job loss estimates sharply higher for the first half of 2009 based on the latest unemployment insurance survey results
August 6th, 2009 at 10:11 am
Looked up Grand Lake Stream, Maine on Google Maps. The question is how the hell do you get there, by parachute maybe??
August 6th, 2009 at 11:59 am
States reported 2,754,391 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending July 18, an increase of 97,512 from the prior week. There were 607,368 claimants in the comparable week in 2008. EUC weekly claims include both first and second tier activity.
…This from Unk’s web site on the unemployment numbers today….100,000 more peeps on the EUC than last week…
August 6th, 2009 at 12:05 pm
OT-I think Abby Joseph Cohen just rang the top bell, by stating a “new Bull Market has begun” on CNBC. My conspiracy theory(not necessary to confirm the contrarian implications of her pronouncement) is that Goldman Sachs uses her as a secret messenger to the insiders to do the opposite of what she says, and this is a coded signal that Goldman is about to let the bottom drop out. This also gets Joe Retail to pick up the tab by acting as a pied piper for less savvy investors.
If we were to get to S&P 1050, it would be too easy, most would know to take profits.
Already 10% short, about to get more so. Hoping for more rally.
August 6th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
scott
You may be on to something there! It would help explain why they continue to pay good money to that useless mouth. It’s sure not apparent from the outside what value she adds. I’ve always figured that she must be a nepotism case of some sort. And everybody that counts just knows to ignore her.
August 6th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
“Goldman Sachs is revising downward its estimate for July non-farm payrolls, from 300,000 to 250,000 now.”
Hmmm. Is GS trying to set up a PM rally today and a disappoint tomorrow? What possible motivation could they have for that? :rolls eyes:
August 6th, 2009 at 6:14 pm
Fly into Bangor, Sea plane to lake. The drive would be a bit long and rough I’d think.