OK, kids, its about that time!
What is on your collective minds? Stocks, music, sports, politics?
I only ask you keep it both civil and informative.
~~~
What say ye?
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
"Dollar depreciation leads to higher inflation and ultimately forces foreign creditors to question their rationale and indeed their sanity for continuing purchases of U.S. Treasuries." -Bill Gross
Signs continue that European markets are getting tired. The Spanish and Italian stock markets, big beneficiaries of the sharp decline in their bond yields over the past few months are falling to the lowest since Feb 1. The European bank index is at a 1 1/2 week low after earnings reports from Commerzbank and Credit Ag (RBS bouncing although reporting weaker than expected earnings) were disappointing. This market action is in spite of the German IFO business confidence figure which rose to a 7 month high coming in a touch above expectations and Italian consumer confidence which bounced more than...
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August 18th, 2009 at 9:24 pm
Tonight on Kudlow Report there was a U of Chicago economist who was debating the failure of the economic stiumulus plan- can someone tell me what his website was called? thanks
August 18th, 2009 at 9:28 pm
I say it time to stop beating around the bush and lay it on the line. The country is now fascist, where do we go from here? I don’t have a book on the NYT best seller list, so I am not sure how civil it should be. Barry, you need to get some of your edge back. Don’t let success destroy you.
~~~
BR: Fascist? WTF are you talking about?
August 18th, 2009 at 9:28 pm
It looks as if the MSM is trying to position itself for a “we told you so” of sorts, it’s just starting.
I still think DJIA will hit around 3 to 4000 sometimes soon. It just feels “right” that the whole edifice comes tumbling down. Too much debt in the system, no confidence, booby-trapped statements and soaring unemployment and stock markets….it’s got to give.
I’d love to see indictments, I wholeheartedly agree with K Denninger.
I haven’t followed the Health Care reform, I’ve been to busy earning a living and the crisis is a lot to digest as it is. I will say tho that a lot of the “Socialist Healthcare scary stories” are just that, stories. Bunch of lies, I was born and lived most of my life in Europe and their systems works.
There are no “death panels” and such nonsense. Granted, Britain had a low period right after Thatcher when they started their reform, but I hear it’s been fixed quite a while ago. Other countries I know, Belgium, France, Spain have better systems that here in the US, IMHO.
August 18th, 2009 at 9:30 pm
CTX, I didn’t see the Kudlow report. But most likely it was Casey….
http://caseymulligan.blogspot.com/
August 18th, 2009 at 9:32 pm
It looks as if the MSM is trying to position itself for a “we told you so” of sorts, it’s just starting.
We’ve seen more Barry lately that’s for sure.
I still think DJIA will hit around 3 to 4000 sometimes soon. It just feels “right” that the whole edifice comes tumbling down. Too much debt in the system, no confidence, booby-trapped statements and soaring unemployment and stock markets….it’s got to give.
I’d love to see indictments, I wholeheartedly agree with K Denninger.
August 18th, 2009 at 9:33 pm
School starts soon here at my university (sorry, I’m junior faculty…no names), and I’ll be curious to see if the first group of undergraduates to start after the great unraveling of finance comes in with different priorities or goals for that first job after graduation. It has been the case in the past that the arrival of new generations is noticed most particularly on college campuses; indeed it was easy to see when the members of my generation replaced the baby boom because the level of political activity on many campuses disappeared in the late 1970s/early 1980s.
The students that I teach are so goal oriented that they do not seem to focus on larger issues or the impact of finance and financial transactions, and the dominant focus of their academic and intellectual efforts in the last decade was finance and financial engineering. The incentives to aim in that direction (extrinsic and intrinsic) were so strong, even for students getting a bachelor’s degree. But last year and the year before were tough. Students I’ve known have had offers “blow up” right before graduation, and seeing that sort of thing happen to your peers leaves a mark on a generation. I’m curious as to whether this will change what new college students are aiming toward and if anyone has thoughts on what may replace finance as a “destination” for business students. That’s on my mind…
August 18th, 2009 at 9:34 pm
It only goes to show how little I know. This guy knows more about everything than I know about anything… However, his essay is worth reading as he perpetuates the same arguments that he makes….
ECONOMICS IS NOT NATURAL SCIENCE [8.11.09]
By Douglas Rushkoff
An Edge Original Essay
“…. We must stop perpetuating the fiction that existence itself is dictated by the immutable laws of economics. These so-called laws are, in actuality, the economic mechanisms of 13th Century monarchs. Some of us analyzing digital culture and its impact on business must reveal economics as the artificial construction it really is. Although it may be subjected to the scientific method and mathematical scrutiny, it is not a natural science; it is game theory, with a set of underlying assumptions that have little to do with anything resembling genetics, neurology, evolution, or natural systems….”
http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/rushkoff09/rushkoff09_index.html
Best regards,
Econolicious
August 18th, 2009 at 9:34 pm
I haven’t followed the Health Care reform, I’ve been to busy earning a living and the crisis is a lot to digest as it is. I will say tho that a lot of the “Socialist Healthcare scary stories” are just that, stories. Bunch of lies, I was born and lived most of my life in Europe and their systems works.
There are no “death panels” and such nonsense. Granted, Britain had a low period right after Thatcher when they started their reform, but I hear it’s been fixed quite a while ago. Other countries I know, Belgium, France, Spain have better systems that here in the US, IMHO.
August 18th, 2009 at 9:45 pm
Obama is a one termer- he has no back bone to take on the special interests- an empty suit who does not understand the anger of the American people- a man who has protected the very people that caused massive economic pain- unconscionable inaction to egregious fraud and greed-
America has become a country with a staggering concentration of wealth- history has proven this to be a catalyst for unrest and civil disobedience-
i could not be more disappointed-
to win back the American people he needs to fire Geithner and Summers- he needs to bring those involved with the destruction of the economy in front of congress- he needs to charge them with- at the very least – reckless endangerment of the whole world’s economy-
why is this so complicated- who does he represent? the bankers or the American people?
America’s best day days are behind us- weak country unable to make tough choices
August 18th, 2009 at 9:49 pm
A little more nonsense on the same topic…. George Dyson talks about, ” a new, massively-distributed financial system , founded on sound, open, peer-to-peer principles, from the start.” I like it just the way it is right now, I just happen to like that “secret hand” that just keeps on giving.
On “Economics Is Not a Natural Science”
George Dyson: …How to best transcend the current economic mess? Put Jeff Bezos, Pierre Omidyar, Elon Musk, Tim O’Reilly, Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Nathan Myhrvold, and Danny Hillis in a room somewhere and don’t let them out until they have framed a new, massively-distributed financial system , founded on sound, open, peer-to-peer principles, from the start. And don’t call it a bank. Launch a new financial medium that is as open, scale-free, universally accessible, self-improving, and non-proprietary as the Internet, and leave the 13th century behind.
Ciao,
Econolicious
August 18th, 2009 at 9:49 pm
1.) I’ll chug a 1/2 pint of SoCo if and when the Dow goes down 250 in two straight trading days.
2.) As an Eagles fan, I’ll take Mike Vick. However, its hard for me not to think Reid and Dungy might be trying to exorcise some personal demons with him.
3.) The new Wilco album is their best.
August 18th, 2009 at 9:51 pm
Oh boy!
I’ve been waiting for this OPEN THREAD…
OK, it’s time… It’s time for the first ever (I think), The Big Picture Fantasy Football challenge…
BR, I promised that this won’t interrupt basic operations… Just a sidekick… Maybe we can announce the CHAMPION in December, or something like that…
I’v had interest from…ben22, I-Man, call me ahab, pmorrisonfl, Mannwich, cvienne (me)
That’s SIX…I need 10… BR you have an automatic invite (if you so accept)…
I’m using this thread to land the final spots… Takers?
I’ll get back to you all with regards to how you’ll need to register for the league… I’m looking for input with regards to doing either a SNAKE, or and AUCTION draft… Being that there are a lot of traders here, I think AUCTION is cool, but if you’re unfamiliar with the concept, standard snake is fine…
August 18th, 2009 at 9:57 pm
I’ll take a spot cvienne.
I don’t post a whole lot here, but I love a good trade, be it markets or fantasy football.
Been in a competitive league for 8 years w/ active owners.
August 18th, 2009 at 10:02 pm
Ahab, you said it all.
August 18th, 2009 at 10:07 pm
1. trade: ZSL or options on it
2. The six in my car: GNR Lies, Ryan Adams Heartbreaker, Dr. Dre The Chronic, Dylan Highway 61 Revisited, Death Cab Narrow Stairs and Kings of Leon Aha Shake Heartbreak.
3. Phils to win the Series again!!
4. …
August 18th, 2009 at 10:09 pm
OK CFA…
You’re in!
For those interested, I can be flexible on DRAFT NITE, but understand I, and I’m sure many of you others, have other draft obligations…
I’ve found Sunday evenings are generally good, but I already have several drafts I’m in on August 30th…
Sunday, September 6th is Labor Day weekend (which is tough for many)…
We could do Sunday MORNING, August 30th, or Saturday August 29th, or, I’m willing to hear suggestions…
August 18th, 2009 at 10:09 pm
@ben 22
Give me your draft date preference here…
August 18th, 2009 at 10:11 pm
The financial portion of the crisis MAY be ending but this is what will likely cause the Greater Depression to intensify….
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/17/AR2009081703035.html
August 18th, 2009 at 10:14 pm
Is this the beginning of P3 or just the start of B of P2?
August 18th, 2009 at 10:14 pm
Cvienne; Count me in, although Seatle is going to FINALLY win the Souper Bowl
August 18th, 2009 at 10:15 pm
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
“Obama is a one termer- he has no back bone to take on the special interest”
The problem with Obama is he’s a puppet of special interests: unions, teachers, government employees, the MSM, Acorn, ACLU, limousine liberals, etc.
August 18th, 2009 at 10:16 pm
@ben22
Also… that was a good post… short & sweet…here’s mine…
1. TRADE: Dollar (which is sort of the same proxy for your ZSL)…I like the options on the UUP
2. The six in my truck: silence at the moment
3. Yankees look tough right about now
4. NFC East/Eagles, North/Bears, South/Saints, West/49ers, WC/Vikings, Cowboys
5. AFC East/Patriots, North/Steelers, South/Colts, West/Chargers, WC/Texans, Dolphins or Jets
August 18th, 2009 at 10:18 pm
@franklin420d
@ben22
@Manny
@CFA
You guys have to give me your draft day preferences right here, right now…
August 3oth, 9am EST sound good?
August 18th, 2009 at 10:19 pm
@cv,
whenever on the draft date, i’m flexible though I have another draft 9/3 at night so I guess thats out.
August 18th, 2009 at 10:19 pm
There are only two people I listen to on CNBS – Kevin Ferry and Art Cashin. What the hell does anyone make of Art’s comments regarding Ramadan (8/22) or the next 8 weeks being some “historical” trading event? I had enough “historical” trading last year! What is the word on the street?
August 18th, 2009 at 10:22 pm
impermanence:
Only now?
August 18th, 2009 at 10:23 pm
I like the 29th or 30th. I’m on Eastern Time (Georgia) but I don’t really have a time preference. Never done an auction draft but I’ll go along with whatever the consensus is.
I’ll chime in on ben22′s cds in the player topic….
Red Hot Chili Peppers – Californication
Poison – Open Up and Say…Ah (classic!!!)
Boston – Self Titled
Kings of Leon – Only by the Night
Luke Bryan – I’ll Stay Me
Dr Dre The Chronic is a classic too.
August 18th, 2009 at 10:24 pm
I’d rather be in a Death Panel league.
August 18th, 2009 at 10:25 pm
@ben22
OK…so far I’m looking at Sunday, August 30th, 9am EST…
Are you other guys in with that? I-Man, on the West Coast is going to have to get his dreads out of bed early…
Back to the market (I’m multitasking)…
10% correction coming (off the 1018 print)…914-931 range on the S&P by September 21st, and we see where we go from there…The “big one” may have to wait for 2010…
August 18th, 2009 at 10:26 pm
@Venn Data
Good… you can be the ‘commish” of that one…
August 18th, 2009 at 10:28 pm
Rumor has it here in the Twin Cities is that Vikings owner Zygi Wilf thinking about renaming the team the “Minnesota Favres”. Has a nice ring to it, don’t you think? As a football fan (but casual observer of the Vikings) I love this for its entertainment value. I can’t lose here either way. I have a feeling that Mr. Favre may end up getting Chilly fired like he got Mangenius fired in NY, but I may be wrong. They do have any easy schedule.
August 18th, 2009 at 10:28 pm
That time/date works for me cvienne.
August 18th, 2009 at 10:30 pm
Anybody getting ready for fantasy football season to start? Who is going to be the sleeper pick of the year?
August 18th, 2009 at 10:30 pm
Ahab, we’ve only seen the beginning of this government’s effects. The elections are far off in the future — the electorate’s memory is very short-term. (Heck, Clinton was re-elected after the HillaryCare blow-up in his first year).
So what’s next? A pandemic? Another terrorist attack? Remember Wag The Dog? Any “civil disobedience” will be met with an increasingly authoritarian government response. These guys play for keeps and it’s going to get very ugly. Just shut up and keep paying your taxes!
August 18th, 2009 at 10:31 pm
@Tom K: ALL of our political leaders are puppets of special interests. Tell us something we don’t already know.
August 18th, 2009 at 10:31 pm
@Manny
Manny…dude…read my posts…
You’d said b4 that you wanted IN on this league…Can u do a draft at 9am EST August 30th?
August 18th, 2009 at 10:31 pm
@cvienne: That works for me as well. Just let me know.
August 18th, 2009 at 10:32 pm
@ahab
Ahab too…you’re lurking here…ANSWER PLEASE
August 18th, 2009 at 10:38 pm
cvienne, any openings left? I’ll join.
August 18th, 2009 at 10:43 pm
@ ben22 – Is it too late for the zsl trade? Also, The options really seem expensive: $1.90 for nov call @ 7.50
August 18th, 2009 at 10:43 pm
>> The problem with Obama is he’s a puppet of special interests: unions, teachers, government employees, the MSM, Acorn, ACLU, limousine liberals, etc.
You’re right. He’s the puppet of just about half the country!! What’s up with that???
No, I think Ahab’s criticism is much more valid. Obama’s not making enough real changes on the econ side of the house. It’s been just 7 months. But, the clock is ticking.
August 18th, 2009 at 10:44 pm
@ben22 @Manny @CFA @ahab (I’ll get to the rest later)
Here is how it’s going to work…
I’m setting it up on YAHOO… & we’re going to do a SNAKE… I’d love to do an auction (on ESPN), but it may be too complicated first time around for some not used to it…
Here is the yahoo LOGIN to register for the league:
League Name: The Big Picture Inaugural
password: bristheman
Register your teams, and as soon as I get it filled up, it’s closed…
Draft is set for August 30th, 9AM EST… It can get changed if needed, but I need to start with something.
August 18th, 2009 at 10:45 pm
Ok I lurk a lot and have picked up so tons of useful information from this site and you guys/gals.
I do not want specific advice,(ie buy this or that) as I know your best guess as to what may be coming next is just, a guess, all be it a very educated guess, but it is still that just a guess.
But if you can recommend any books, information or advice on how to get into trading and what trading tools (E*TRADE or what not) may work better then others.
On a personal note, I have just one child left in the house and he is getting older, I hold little debt, but my wife is not working so finances are a little tight. Because of low debt and one child at home I am much more risk ready then I would have been 5 years earlier, so I am not afraid of making bolder moves, I just do not want to make blind and or stupid choices.
From 1999 to 2003 I bought and sold 3 houses (Made a little money) around 2003 house prices started to look crazy and decided I did not want to get caught in a mess.
Before 2008 I had only been a good little investor and parked my money in a 401k , but around 2008, it seemed evident the market was heading for trouble. From what I have read and heard the market is not going to be doing anything spectacular any time soon, but I honestly believe that now is also the time to learn.
I have not training in the stock market only a desire to succeed for myself and for my family.
Barry Thank you for this open thread as I would never (On purpose) piss in your sand box (Might accidently-Sorry)
For anyone willing to give me suggestions on what to read, what tools are good to use or any advise, I thank you in advance
August 18th, 2009 at 10:46 pm
You folks have to remember that the Pres does not have a scalpel. This is a crisis 30 years in the making.
Frankly, I don’t mind seeing people becoming impatient. I look forward to seeing protests (in front of Wall Street and Penn Ave concurrently), because I’m not sure that us bitching about it here is reaching anyone’s ears.
cvienne, can I show up at your league meetings as the “Commish” of the More Taste League?? I want that gig.
August 18th, 2009 at 10:50 pm
Good deal, cvienne. Just shoot a reminder if you can sometime as we approach that date. Are you sure we shouldn’t do it on a weekday? That’s a Sunday morning.
August 18th, 2009 at 10:50 pm
@Cvienne,
Ok if I understand correctly we can not start, before August 30 at 9am we log into Yahoo and find were we log in from there we put in
League Name: The Big Picture Inaugural
password: bristheman
And make our draft pick (Like Farve) .
Is that correct?
August 18th, 2009 at 10:51 pm
Mostly wondering about the story “Animal farm”. Amazingly similar to explaining much of collective of Wall St., Washington and the financial oligarchy overall. Oh, and the horse, well, that’s the pensioner.
Also wondering if you could ever again have long drawn out world wars with the internet in existence.
Also wondering why Patrick Kane is such a Dick.
August 18th, 2009 at 10:53 pm
Awww Mannwich whats the matter with Sunday morning? You don’t plan on wasting a perfectly good Sunday moring sleeping do you :)
August 18th, 2009 at 10:53 pm
@hopeImwrong
I know your ?? is directed at ben but I’ve kind of been on that same trade so I’ll give you my input…
#1…I don’t want to tell you how to trade because I don’t know anything about you or your situation…
Let me just tell you the logic…
ZSL is a “double short” silver ETF…Many (including myself) consider the dollar and silver to be OPPOSITES in terms of trading vectors…
Some would say that the dollar has found an intermediate bottom here in the past few days…I’d suggest you look at the charts and make that determination for yourself…
If so (dollar bottom), then perhaps this is an entry point for going short silver…I’d say TO BE SAFE, you need to verify if the dollar, in your mind, has actually bottomed…To me it looks like its in the process of backtesting some technical levels, AND, so far, so good…
An intermediate bottom could last for quite awhile…The top to most recent bottom on the dollar lasted about 6 months (meaning, there’s time to play with the move, and not risk gambling at this point)…
Also, playing a 2x short ETF on a notional trade has its own risks…Many times the virtue of playing these issues is in the hands of day traders who KNOW the risks, and can enter & exit quickly…There is ALSO decay involved if the trade doesn’t work out and you have to hold onto it…
So I might say that the SAFER play would just be to buy the UUP and let it ride for a few months…It’s more PURE and much less risky…
My 2 cents…
August 18th, 2009 at 10:54 pm
>> Also wondering if you could ever again have long drawn out world wars with the internet in existence.
Have you ever heard of World of Warcraft?
August 18th, 2009 at 10:58 pm
If you’re referring to the vid game, heard of, know nothing about it.
August 18th, 2009 at 10:59 pm
Thank cvienne, for jumping in. That answers my question.
August 18th, 2009 at 11:00 pm
@franklin420d
You can go to yahoo right now and register…(Manny, you too, ben, CFA)
just click thru to SPORTS…FANTASY GAMES…there will be a button that says “Join a League”…click that…and when it asks for the league name & password, type in what I gave you…
When you’re in…register your team (that way I have a running count of who has registered)…
Just be sure to show up 30 minutes before the draft on draft day so you’re prepared…
Manny, I know it’s a Sunday, but that’s better for a lot of us…I can tell you that most weekday mornings, I’m involved with either this blog, or watching the markets & financial news…
Otherwise, it would have to be late on a weeknight…
Come on Manny! Get yourself a cup of coffee & shake the cobwebs out! :-)
August 18th, 2009 at 11:01 pm
@cvienne: That should be fine. Just shoot me a little reminder!
August 18th, 2009 at 11:02 pm
It is way too early to declare Obama a one-termer. Clinton misread his mandate just as Obama has, and the Republicans cleaned house in the mid-term elections. Alot of people were convinced Clinton was a one-termer. But after the mid-terms, he started governing more from the center and he was re-elected to a second term.
That said, I found this CNN poll rather surprising, especially since the poll oversampled blacks, who voted 97% for Obama:
“After 6 Months, More View Obama’s Presidency as a ‘Failure’ Than Bush’s”
http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2009/08/06/after-6-months-more-view-obamas-presidency-as-a-failure-than-bushs/
August 18th, 2009 at 11:03 pm
Excellent rant by Karl Denninger
Will It All Come Tumbling Down?
August 18th, 2009 at 11:06 pm
@Manny
When you register (as I described how to do above), each of you will provide an e-mail contact…
I’ll be able to contact you that way (to remind you)…I’d rather not get into publishing e-mail accounts on this blog thread if I can avoid it…
Thanks for playing!… It’ll be fun!
August 18th, 2009 at 11:07 pm
re: double inverse ETFs
cvienne’s absolutely right to point out the decay. The tracking error can get quite severe and it’s something that you need to watch out for. They’re not vehicles for longer-term holds.
August 18th, 2009 at 11:09 pm
cvienne…you have to use the league id number to join, not the name of the league.
please provide when you can.
August 18th, 2009 at 11:11 pm
Anyone have any thoughts on the link BR put up today with Art Cashin’s video? Art’s been more right than wrong, but it seemed a stretch for him to mention a potential geopolitical event on a specific date.
Also, I thought the comment that we could see historic trading over the next 8 weeks would get more play on the web today, but it never really caught on.
I used to have lots of good floor contacts that could provide color to comments like that but my rolodex keeps shrinking :(
August 18th, 2009 at 11:12 pm
@Cohen
I learned the hard way on that…
NOBODY had much experience with these things before they started showing up last year…And many, including myself, got burned…
I’ve learned to use them ONLY as hedging vehicles (sort of like selling covered calls, or put buying)…
Definitely not stuff for amateurs…
August 18th, 2009 at 11:14 pm
Wunscon – I agree. I am increasingly disillusioned by Obama’s performance so far but I sometimes ask myself this:
Is part of my frustration and anger due to disappointment in my own possibly naive expectations? Now that some time has passed and we’re not all in a panic and coming off 8 years of Bush we can look back easily to last year and how scary things were. How tired we were of Bush and how much we wanted change. Mc Cain seemed ok at first but Palin was . . . well, Palin – Obama seemed fresh and new and he spoke very very well, such a nice change from 8 years of “hey pardner, lookin’ good yer excellency”. He preached about hope and we needed it, we voted for him and he won, it was a very exciting time. We’d just voted in our first black president.
Then reality set in and now we know how truly fucked up things really were and how tough the road ahead is going to be. It’s scary shit. Can anyone here think of anyone else in elected office today you think you would rather see in office? I’m not saying Obama is the best of the best, what I’m saying is if it were someone else, what kinds of problems would they have? With either congress, special interests, wall street, the insurance companies? Each choice we’d make would have his own special set of problems. Our country is run by the wealthy. They control the banks, the insurance companies, politics, industry – you name it. That’s where the real power lies and it doesn’t make one iota who is sitting in the White House, these are the people that call the shots and they will continue to call the shots no matter who the president it. Even if we had a president willing to stand up to all of these special interests and tell them no, there is no way that congress would ever be on board – we’ve already seen this with the health care debate – congress is even more in the pocket than the president.
So, maybe my anger might have a little more to do with being pissed because now I really get it, now I really understand how this country works and it’s depressing as hell. . . .
August 18th, 2009 at 11:15 pm
@CFA
Thanks…you’re right…
OK, I think the league number is 640421
password: bristheman
Let me know if you log in successfully!
August 18th, 2009 at 11:15 pm
The unemployment situation makes me sick to my stomach,
the private sector created no jobs in the last ten years, it was all government (the info is from here).
Every State is broke and ready to make big cuts, so we have a huge amount of unemployed people, a huge amount of soon to be and a huge amount of kids entering the work force with no chance.
When I hear about jobless recovery, I don’t know if I should laugh or cry, because as far as I can tell, the middle class has turned to crumbs and is broke, whoever thinks folks are spending tomorrow is out of his head.
So recovery, no, we are in a consuming credit machine with no more consumers and dried out credit.
Are the rich just waiting for a meltdown Argentina style?
August 18th, 2009 at 11:16 pm
I’m using a 2x short sp5 etf as a hedge along with UUP but both are very small positions. The tracking error so far is negligible but i’m keeping an eye on it.
August 18th, 2009 at 11:17 pm
Barry,
You have mellowed…thanks for the open threads. Most of us have internal thought creation processes…that is what brings us into “rut” thinking…I should think that the ideas presented by this flight of ideas on the open threads would occassionally jar you into another way of looking at something you hadn’t even considered.
I know it does for me.
August 18th, 2009 at 11:19 pm
call me ahab Says:
August 18th, 2009 at 9:45 pm
“Obama is a one termer…to win back the American people he needs to fire Geithner and Summers”
Agreed. He also needs to fire Emanuel. Emanuel’s strategy of using a crisis as a opportunity for political advantage is just another example of “the ends justifies the means”. It is a morally corrupt philosophy.
It is in some respects similar to Bush’s claim of weapons of mass destruction to invade Iraq. He rationalized that the overthrow of Saddam Hussein (the end) warranted the accusation of WMD (the means). But in so doing, he manipulated the public and lost the confidence and trust of many.
The “Emanuel Doctrine” is one of the reasons why the general population has lost confidence in Obama. It indicates that there is a willingness to use deception and false pretense to achieve objectives. As a result? When Obama said individuals can continue to keep their existing health care, he is no longer trusted. People fear, and perhaps with good reason, that their health care will ultimately be nationalized. People fear “Cap and Trade” will just line the pockets of investment bankers (heavy contributors to the Democratic Party) while costing jobs on mainstreet.
His administration has lost its ethical grounding. It has lost the trust and confidence of the majority of the American public which once lost is hard to earn back. Thus Obama must make wholesale changes in the personnel within and the direction of his administration. He has got to take charge, demand from the far left wing of his party that they tow a more centrist line and deliver a bipartisan form of government as he promised during the campaign.
I don’t think Obama can or will do this though because he is indeed a traditional, big-government, uber-liberal. He simply is not the centrist that he played on the election campaign stage.
It was quite revealing when Judd Gregg, who is a very reasonable individual, embarrassingly withdrew his name from serving in the Obama Cabinet. Obviously he was fooled by the rhetoric of the election and once he looked inside the box he discovered that the Obama Administration was an ultra-liberal organization.
Yes, Obama is a one-termer. Also is the Democratic Party’s control of the House of Representatives will end in 2010.
August 18th, 2009 at 11:20 pm
alright- cvienne- you have been active- big football fan as you know- but not a fatansy player- but as I said earlier – my son is in a fantasy league- so will check with him- if he’s in- I am in-
tom k-
dude- what about the oil lobbies, insurance lobbies, bank lobbies??? How come you didn’t mention them? Much more power and money there- no?
wunsacon-
many things could have been done differently- there is much frustration and animosity building against the banks and the preferential treatment given them by the USG- Obama needs to make a stand against the very folks who think they are above the law and who have gamed the whole economy to their benefit and to the detriment of almost everyone else
also re WOW- my sons were addicted to that game but have since weaned themselves off and have re-joined society as functional literate human beings
August 18th, 2009 at 11:23 pm
cvienne….
I am in. 40 Year Old Vikings will rule the league!
August 18th, 2009 at 11:27 pm
@ahab
I’ve seen and read a lot of analysts lately recommending GS bc of their near-monopoly on wall street but one thing i’ve been thinking about with the growing animosity towards the banks, do they present a similar risk as some are worried about pharma and health insurers? GS maybe too powerful but politicians play to stay in office and being the ones willing to take on the corporate fat cats might be what it takes to do so. I’m not too confident in that tho but i can hope.
August 18th, 2009 at 11:29 pm
beaufou – I think America is at a crossroads. How we collectively deal with these times will determine what kind of country we will be in the 21st century. I think people are going to have to learn to live not only within their means, but below the means they have been used to. This has happened to this country before, on a much larger and (so far) worse scale. Our grandparents came out of that generation fine. They were children of the roaring 20′s, came of age during the great depression, and then went and fought a world war for 4 years. I don’t think there is any other generation in US history that has been so idolized by the generations after.
I would like to think that the times we are living through now are very similar, how we as individuals and as a country deal with this will determine how future generations look back upon us. I hope we make the right choices.
August 18th, 2009 at 11:31 pm
@Thor
Pretty good level headed viewpoint…
From my perspective… From the beginning I perceived Obama more hype than anything else (so basically I had no expectations)…
I can frankly say that didn’t expect much to come from the McCain/Palin ticket either (and probably less), so although I wasn’t an Obama supporter, I wasn’t an enemy either…
Frankly, I was more worried about the mathematics of how the House & Senate races went…I NEVER think a “fillibuster” majority is a good thing (blue OR red)…
I think what has surprised me the most is the fact that the policies have leaned more to the radical side than I ever imagined they might…and/or there is really NO policy, as those details are shoveled off to the House & Senate to author…
In basic terms (going back a year)… think of it this way
- Bank bailouts & stress tests (a lot of heavy handed government there)
- Bailouts of GM & Chrysler (and what was forced upon the capital structure)
- 44 “czars” without congressional approval
- triple the budget deficit of ’08 (one in which he openly criticized in debates)
- Guantanamo conundrum (no “solution”, just an undefined schedule for closure)
- failed PPIF programs, backfired credit card resolution, cash for clunkers
- open apologies on the world stage for America
I don’t know, I’m just getting started here, but not much of what I’ve seen is truly inspiring…
So it is not hard for me to understand people wanting to speak out a little and say “not so fast” when it comes to another trillion for healthcare, and whatever comes from a “cap & trade” that India & China are never going to sign onto…
August 18th, 2009 at 11:32 pm
@ BSNEATH, but also generally on the topic of politics:
Did anyone really NOT see this coming? Obama’s first 9 months have been on point with Exactly what he promised he’d do during the campaign. Are you folks really surprised? You just had to read past the tickers on the media networks during the campaign, past the soaring rhetoric, and you would have understood that this is EXACTLY what he planned. Look at his donor lists, his voting record, everything. Past the sparkle. This is not about “his administration losing its ethical or moral grounding”. It’s about HIM. He has no desire to become less liberal. So why do we speak of him ‘needing to make changes in his administration’ when it’s exactly the team he WANTS in there? This is his playbook. We (the country) bought it. Now it’s time to suck it up and take our medicine, because it’s what 54% of this country wanted.
Frankly I couldn’t stand McCain so if anyone feels compelled to respond, I’m not saying this from a hard-core party-line perspective – just from the position of one who thoroughly educated himself during the course of the election.
None of this surprises me. Not. One. Thing. If anyone’s ‘surprised’ or ‘dismayed’ at the way things have gone… you should have done your homework.
August 18th, 2009 at 11:33 pm
@cvienne – I hate to be a party pooper, I went to Yahoo signed up for a Yahoo account then went to sports, fantasy sports and put in the user name and password you supplied and got the following error.
I then went to Sports – “Browse Custom” and could not find “The Big Picture Inaugral”
Anyway it could be the way I am doing it, do you know if anyones else has been able to registar yet?
ERROR I am recieving, Says “this league is not registard yet”
Enter League ID and Password
Enter the league ID and password provided by your league commissioner (usually in an email)
There was a problem
* This league is not registered in this game. (Error #272)
* League ID: * The Big Picture Inaugural
Required Enter League ID#, not name
* Password * bristheman
Required
August 18th, 2009 at 11:34 pm
@CFA
YES my friend…You are in…
So basically guys…the login is as follows:
league number: 640421
password: bristheman
Also…THE GREAT CNBC SUCKS has graced us once again and will partake!
Welcome back TGCNBCS! :-)
August 18th, 2009 at 11:35 pm
@franklin420d
read my last post…that’s how you do it…
My error b4…sorry!
August 18th, 2009 at 11:38 pm
@Cohen
I’d be interested in hearing your tracking stories on that going forward…(whether you do them on your own accounts, or chart them statistically)…
FWIW – There’s been a spike in call activity in the UUP lately starting with the September calls (going all the way thru March)…
August 18th, 2009 at 11:38 pm
@ cvienne
How do you feel about foreign nations potentially getting involved in the PPIP as BR pointed out today and Dick Bove talked about?
I’m Canadian but if I was American, I wouldn’t be too happy about it.
August 18th, 2009 at 11:41 pm
@ahab
You can do it TOGETHER with your kid…
It’ll be fun to have you in there…I need a Redskin fan to beat up on :-)…
Note: I used to be a DIE HARD Redskins fan, as you know!
August 18th, 2009 at 11:42 pm
Cohen – there’s a whole thread on your question from earlier today. Most of the people posting now had something to say about it in that thread.
August 18th, 2009 at 11:43 pm
@ Thor
thx i’ll take a look
August 18th, 2009 at 11:45 pm
@Cohen
Re: PPIP
Good Question…I read A LOT of good posts on that today (and let me tell you that the universality of the viewpoints actually managed to sway my perspective from what I would have instinctively determined on my own)…
Let me put it this way…
I’m into EXPEDIENCY (at most costs)…
If it turns out to be an expedient HELP, then I might be for it… The main “eyebrow raiser” for me would be the FDIC aspect of it…
Frankly, I have to study the situation more before coming to a full conclusion…
August 18th, 2009 at 11:45 pm
@ Thor–”Can anyone here think of anyone else in elected office today you think you would rather see in office?” No, and that’s the problem. Clearly, if the American people want real change, they will need to elect someone who is “outside the box”. Difficult…but possible.
August 18th, 2009 at 11:46 pm
@CPJ13 Says:
I agree with all you say but I caution on the glee and bravado of the ” this is what 54% of the people wanted” You know this is a false statement and recent polls back it up. I was not the only one who was duped by his campaign splash. Liberals can say we won it so get out of our way. Fine, we will have a one-term President and will soon see a totally different House of Representatives.
August 18th, 2009 at 11:57 pm
BSNEATH @ 11:19
“Obama is a one-termer. Also is the Democratic Party’s control of the House of Representatives will end in 2010”
If Obama rams a healthcare package through the Congress without any Republican support, the Dems’ will take a BIG hit in the 2010 elections. Maybe like what happened in 1994. And maybe it wouldn’t be such a bad thing to have Obama as President, while at the same time the R’s are preventing him from putting us deeper in the hole to the tune of $2 Trillion per year.
August 19th, 2009 at 12:07 am
@cvienne That worked, I am in, I had to create a Ymail account, I do not know if it shows up automatically or you will need it. Anyway thanks for going to the trouble of setting this up for us,
GO SEAHAWKS!!!!!!!!
August 19th, 2009 at 12:08 am
check out the questions Digg wants to ask Tim Geithner….
August 19th, 2009 at 12:13 am
@DL
I think you’re kinda right…
All through the 2008 election (and literally, starting in about 2006), I kept saying to myself…
“Who in their right mind would want to be President of the United States at this moment”
It was so obvious that there were economic storm clouds on the horizon that could not be cured by politics… It seemed OBVIOUS to me that the new custodian of Penn Ave would be simply that, A CUSTODIAN… Someone who was simply capable of withstanding the slings, arrows, AND BLAME for a situation that nobody had an answer for…
So it seemed to me that a likeable, charismatic person might suit the ticket… Obama seemed to resemble that more than anyone else who emerged, so I basically said ” eh Why TF not?”…
Trouble is, as time passed, he, or somebody seemed to become convinced of the notion that he was, truly special, and that he could somehow craft a “fix” for everything… Those notions should have remained buried, but alas, they haven’t…
This country will make it through one way or another… At this point, we just don’t need an Administration so hell bent on self glorification that they don’t gum up the springwerks…
August 19th, 2009 at 12:15 am
dollar bears
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a399pOPFwDu8
August 19th, 2009 at 12:16 am
@franklin420d
I’m getting all the team names as we speak…which TEAM NAME is yours?
August 19th, 2009 at 12:17 am
One way to look at it – We are all living through one of the most important periods in US History. We are at a pivot point.
August 19th, 2009 at 12:20 am
@ben22
I guess BG didn’t get my memo :-)
…& ben…dammit! log in & register
YAHOO
league #: 640421
password: bristheman
August 19th, 2009 at 12:22 am
The problem in all of this is the market. The much loved market. The malfunction? We let the free market economy become the free market society. I think we can see the clearest results of the free market society in prisions, healthcare ,wages, and the intrustion of companies on the democratic process. All of which are bad and getting worse.
August 19th, 2009 at 12:30 am
@cvienne the Mangy_mutts is my team :)
@Thor are you joining the league? Also I agree 100% with your last post about the most important periods in US history, I just hope you land on our feet not our faces.
August 19th, 2009 at 12:32 am
@ cvienne is there a meaning behind bristheman, or is it just something you pulled from your brain?
August 19th, 2009 at 12:40 am
@mangy_mutts (franklin420d)
bristheman = br is the man
I had to issue a shout out…u know? for respect!
August 19th, 2009 at 12:41 am
@ cvienne–”So it seemed to me that a likeable, charismatic person might suit the ticket”
Another “diplomat” is exactly the kind of person we don’t need. The House and Senate are full of them. What we need in a President is someone who has common sense, believes in the principles expressed in the Constitution and is an authoritarian. Then goes in, kicks ass and take names.
August 19th, 2009 at 12:42 am
I want in on the fantasy football.
August 19th, 2009 at 12:46 am
@Thor
I appreciate the generation you’re talking about, they liberated my grandparents who then taught me about De Gaulle and Eisenhower and how people in power are to be responsible and caring when it comes to their own, meaning the citizens of their country.
However, I don’t think this is true anymore and I don’t want to see another world war because nuclear weapons are everywhere; I don’t support the North Korea theory of evil, I was against the war in Iraq because I didn’t believe S.Hussein could afford WMDs, same for Kim Jong Ill.
We used to have elites who were mostly regarded as snobs and a-holes, but did make choices for the good of all, even in medieval times, my avatar is Phillip the Fair, who turned the Templars into ashes, not for the fun of it, or take their gold (it was donated to the order of Malta), but to end usury.
As a French man, I can also mention Napoleon who had no patience for usury either, it has no future. (I actually was looking at speculation in Napoleonic times, and bankers wanted no part of it. If you ever want to see it, it’s fascinating)
But to go back to the original point, I’ll tell a personal story.
I was at the Lefrak house a few months ago when things were really scary. I’m naming them because if I don’t, I’m in the scared category.
Papers were being passed around about impoverished country, middle class crumbling…bla bla bla.
Reading those papers, you could clearly see that we were in a deep hole as a nation, the system was eating itself.
Conclusion of the meeting?
Equity Default Swaps.
That my friend is your new elite, and I don’t know how much our generation can do, because change can only come from the top.
August 19th, 2009 at 12:46 am
@cvienne iseeitnow bristheman thanks.
andihearyouthere respectisgood
August 19th, 2009 at 12:53 am
@Pat G
I don’t disagree with what you’re saying… But let me put it to you this way…
The only Presidents that come to mind to fit what you describe are:
- Andrew Jackson
- Teddy Roosevelt
- Harry Truman
- Ronald Reagan
I’m not old enough to remember the first three (except what I read in history books)…
RR, I DO remember…I enjoyed my time when he was President (and he was, in fact, a seeming “antithesis” of Carter, who was more of the loathed “diplomat” as you describe)…
However, reading TBP, all I hear about are criticisms of how the Reagan policies started us on the bad fiscal and economic past that we are on today… I’m not prepared with an argument for that because I can see some of the “deficit spending” ramifications in retrospect…
So I’m left with…
Was Reagan (the “kick ass & take names” President a good President or no)…
IOW – If you’re going to enter with that comment, perhaps you have to be able to peer 30 years into the future…
“It’s tricky to rock a rhyme to rock a rhyme that’s right on time – it’s TRICKY”
RUN DMC
Note: BR – that song lyric was my “music post” of the evening, other than the 6 Cd’s in my truck right now are…SILENCE
August 19th, 2009 at 12:56 am
@beaufou, interesting story and as they say truth is stranger then fiction, so you could not have made it up and that is very sad that we have reached this point. And is it honestly possible for change to take place even from the top down?
August 19th, 2009 at 12:56 am
@franklin420d
bristheman = br is the man, as evienne said
or
bris the man, if you are Jewish.
August 19th, 2009 at 12:57 am
Seems like we’re almost in the noise lately when focusing on the “recovery”. Does anyone remember that the current rally was triggered by a “leaked” Citibank memo about record profits back in late March ’09? I doubt it. This rally has climbed its wall of worry on thin volume and rumor. Now the MSM is backfilling the why & how of it with tidbits of “less bad” statistics and a couple of anecdotal upticks in the Japanese, French, and German GDP numbers. With the trillions in assorted stimuli packages around the world did anyone not expect some effect, however temporary? Most folks in the MSM seem to think we’re kickstarted the engine of growth and now its just pedal-to-the-metal from idle to ramming speed.
Obviously I have serious doubts. I’m short the S&P via put options next expiring next March and December. It’s not a big bet but I’m doubling down every chance I get.
The underlying facts from my perspective are fairly simple. The engine of growth after the tech crash was cheap manufacturing, mainly from China, and huge European and North American consumer demand. This engine is now terminally damaged. The GDP, unemployment, CRE, yada yada stats are all just aftereffects of this. No amont of dickering will be able to restart this engine and we are in the midst of a reset to a lower level of global economic activity. The stimuli simply delayed this process causing a brief lull in Q2 2009.
August 19th, 2009 at 1:04 am
cvienne
I thought it was “bris the man” and wondered what you were getting at. :)
August 19th, 2009 at 1:07 am
@ Troy the onlooker, glad to hear your confusion, I thought I didn’t understand because I was 420d :)
August 19th, 2009 at 1:10 am
aitrader
“The underlying facts from my perspective are fairly simple. The engine of growth after the tech crash was cheap manufacturing, mainly from China, and huge European and North American consumer demand. This engine is now terminally damaged. The GDP, unemployment, CRE, yada yada stats are all just aftereffects of this. No amont of dickering will be able to restart this engine and we are in the midst of a reset to a lower level of global economic activity. The stimuli simply delayed this process causing a brief lull in Q2 2009.”
Bingo, exactly, spot on! That’s exactly what my perspective is, plus add in the enormous debt loads which create a huge drag now that we can no longer service it.
All these folks running around looking at weekly and monthly stats, trying to figure out where we’re going are just missing the forest while lost in the trees. I know that nobody wants to face the ugly truth, but it’s there and it won’t change with the steps being taken. There’s a lot of denial out there, that’s for sure.
August 19th, 2009 at 1:14 am
@franklin420d
Change from revolution could only make matters worse, I did believe at one point Obama was being preachy just to get people behind him and change things, but he was only counting votes.
This guy had the greatest opportunity to kick some ass and wasted it by being your usual politician.
Sorry state of affairs all around.
August 19th, 2009 at 1:14 am
@ cvienne
I am not arguing with you but only trying to point out that the answer to our problem is right at our fingertips; the web. We can piss and moan all we want about our elected officials but until we “show” them that we are sincere about change it will never happen. It’ll continue to be the same “usury” that beaufou refers to. If you read; ” “Too Big to Fail” Must Die” in BR’s “10 for Tuesday” link fest you’ll see that it was on Reagan’s watch that the TBTF culture began. I don’t remember any of the other three you list either. By point is, that we haven’t had a “decent” President in decades and might never have another unless we are willing to do the grunt work to make it happen. It’s not that difficult. Here’s the link for establishing write-in Presidential candidates in every state. How many states are represented on this blog by its posters? And how many of our posters have family & friends in other states not represented by regulars here? We could do this…
http://writein2008.blogspot.com/
August 19th, 2009 at 1:14 am
@aitrader
What you’re stating (correctly – likely), is that FUNDAMENTALS don’t match VALUATIONS…
I agree with you there…
I further agree that the rally since mid-July is lingering on “correction”…
However – I’m willing to let the charts tell me how deep the correction needs to be for now… I’m personally not WEDDED to ANY idea…
Let me give you a few points…
- The Q309 & Q409 earnings are still going to be cupcakes (vs. ’08)… After two quarters of witnessing euphoria over numbers that only showed “operating earnings” beats… I’m a little gunshy there…
- GDP may still tick positive based on the mathematics of the calculations
- There’s WEIRD anecdotal evidence that the phenomenon of “retail sales” could actually improve BUT FOR the fact that some may have STOPPED paying their bills and started hoarding cash… Now wouldn’t THAT be a kicker?
- Commodities may lighten up a bit (with gasoline prices coming down due to seasonal adjustments)
- Trading desks may simply NOT BE READY to declare the rally over… As soon as positions NEED to be liquidated, I’m sure they will… I’m not sure if we’ve reached that point yet…
So who knows? Maybe a 10% correction is imminent… But I’m sure going to be looking at the market behavior when it reaches that point before I go GUNG-HO on the short side…
“Charts don’t lie… people do”
August 19th, 2009 at 1:17 am
@Troy What you and aitrader say is true, I think most people also know it is true, yet they chose to want to believe the green shoots bull shit, because they want to believe in hope, a hope that is short lived.
But what can the general public do besides believe in this false hope?
August 19th, 2009 at 1:20 am
@ franklin420d–” And is it honestly possible for change to take place even from the top down?”
No!! An example; Wall Street. Crumbling and begging for our help one day, back to business (financial instruments and bonuses) the next.
August 19th, 2009 at 1:23 am
My baseball system is 61-37 (.622) since the All-Star break. If this keeps up I’ll be stepping up to the plate next season.
My brother-in-law borrowed my lawnmower and returned it today with a seized motor. He’s paying for half of my new Honda 4-stroke machine. My sister thinks I’m a dick. LOL…good times….
I’m gonna have some killer salsa from the garden this year. Does anyone even know how to home can food anymore??
My daughter starts her Jr year of high school tomorrow morning.
Wow.
August 19th, 2009 at 1:24 am
Pat G – great post – I got the west locked up for ya – CA, AZ, NV, OR, and WA
August 19th, 2009 at 1:25 am
@franklin420d
The general public can’t do anything but take care of themselves…
Most of them don’t need to be in the market…
Most of my friends know that I’m involved in TRADING (tho I’m not a trader), and that I follow the markets closely…
They ask me ALL THE TIME for advice…Do you know what I tell them (in this environment)?
I tell them to STAY AWAY… I tell them to count their cash for what it is, pay their bills, and stop thinking of INVESTMENTS the way they might of thought of them in the past as a vehicle to improve their net worth and/or raise their standard of living for the time being…LET IT REST… Conserve your capital and come back at a time when the market (& geopolitics) makes more sense!
August 19th, 2009 at 1:28 am
@Christopher
I know how to home can just about anything you nominate…
Actually…MASON JARS are the real answer… Tell me what’s on your mind… That’s my wheelhouse!
August 19th, 2009 at 1:32 am
@ Thor
That’s great. I can handle NM, CO, MI, NE and AK. That’s 20% of the States already. Possibly NC and SC too.
August 19th, 2009 at 1:33 am
@cvienne
I’m a bit of a chartist m’self and believe the ol’ “the trend is your friend” maxim 99% of the time. You can only fight the fundamentals short term however .Otherwise one is trading the noise. I believe we are currently in an era of “fat tails”, as Mandelbrot described non-linear leaps and crashes, for three to five years. The evidence is in the chart from the 2008 top to the 2009 low and the recent rally. This is driven by a fundamental shift in the recent driver of economic activity.
August 19th, 2009 at 1:34 am
Excellent advice cv.
I’ve placed my smallish bet on what I think should happen…and I’m letting it ride to the end….ala Steve Barry.
It’s probably a small minded way to “invest” but it works for me at this point. I don’t have the time or knowledge at this point to do much else.
August 19th, 2009 at 1:37 am
@Thor I am in WA you got my vote Mr. President.
August 19th, 2009 at 1:44 am
I remember watching my grandmother and mother canning….it seemed to my 12 year old eyes to be a massive production of jars and steam and flurry….she had a huge kitchen and it seemed barely big enough.
My garden isn’t that big…..Is there a simple way to can a dozen or so jars of salsa?
Geez….it’s getting late…..I gotta work in 7 hours.
I’ll look tomorrow.
Thanks
August 19th, 2009 at 1:47 am
@ franklin420d
Thor might make a great President but we can’t limit the selection process to posters on TBP only. We can use Facebook, Twitter and other sites to attract candidates and rank them based upon their views, sort of like “American Idol”. This will get the constituency (average people) involved too.
August 19th, 2009 at 1:53 am
OK…
gotta go to sleep everyone…
BTW – The Fantasy Football status is as follows…
Tonight I got enough registrations to fill the league… Basically, I’m still waiting on 2 other “promised spots” (from a few weeks ago) to register…
I’m willing to expand the league from 10 teams to 12 teams if needed (and that should embrace everyone)…
The policy is as follows…I have a list of 5 who were “pre-committed”… The rest (up to 12) should consider their entry secure, however, if it reaches a point of OVER one or two, I might have to do a blind lottery (basically – a 6 in for a 7 draw or something, for odd man out)…
I’ll be in contact with all of you via the League e-mail address on the registrations…
Thanks for signing in… It’ll be a blast!
Maybe this thing can get grown into divisions in years to come!
CV
August 19th, 2009 at 1:56 am
@cvienne, Thank you for your sincere and sound advice 1:25am I do not believe you are correct I KNOW you are. The market, finances and the (US) World has in a mere 30 years change tremendously, the poor got poorer and the rich got richer and a lucky few remained the same.
This took 30+ years of lies to get into it will not go away in 6-12-18 months, maybe in 7-10 years maybe.
But I also believe when we get through this tunnel the light will be shining on those whose who took the steps to protect themselves. Get rich NO, protect my family YES. Now is probably the worst time ever to learn to swim, but if one stays by the shores and waits and listens to those more experienced they will know how to swim with the best of them in 10 years. I hope that made since.
On a personal note I grew up a white guy on an Indian Reservation that i 65% hispanic, I have gone days, weeks without talking to another white person, the people in that area are some of the best and I would trust my life to them, however they see the world through impoverished eyes. I spent months searching the internet looking for real view points and accidentally stumbled onto TBP I have learned more in the last 2-3 months for ALL of YOU ALL.
I know I may be rambling but I want to learn, I have always worked hard at staying out of dept and I will not take food off my families table at the same time I don’t want it stolen either.
Again thank you for your very sage advice.
August 19th, 2009 at 1:57 am
@Christopher
I gotta go to bed too…
Most simple idea… It’s tricky regarding the “shelf life” of the spices that to toss into a salsa… Not that they’ll botch, but the flavors can become different…
Best thing to do is to think of INGREDIENTS…
You can easily jar tomatoes, peppers, corn (or whatever you want to put in your salsa individually)… Then you just “mix it up fresh” when you’re ready…
Later on, tell me what ingredients you like to put in your salsa…
August 19th, 2009 at 1:58 am
@Pat G great thinking, with you as campaign manager we will have Thor in office in 5-6 months :)
August 19th, 2009 at 2:01 am
Good night franklin420d :-)
August 19th, 2009 at 2:07 am
Nite C….
August 19th, 2009 at 4:01 am
http://singerprofitcharts.blogspot.com/2009/08/spxa200-s-500-stocks-over-200-day-ma.html
August 19th, 2009 at 6:44 am
I guess it was cvienne night last night! I scrolled through the thread–and it looked as though cvienne’s wife left him alone last night or something! :-))
Let’s see– Obama is a one-termer. This I agree. You can’t overpromise and underdeliver. If you hold yourself out as someone who is outside the beltway, as someone who is the anti-politic–you can not do what he has done. Classic ultra liberal stuff. He’s bent over for the UAW, he’s filled positions with career ultra liberal D’s. One top of that- and almost in polar opposite to everything else he’s talked- he’s vigorously maintained the status quo in the financials, protecting the “too big to fails” and preventing darwinism from taking place. Healthcare was too radical, rather than reformative… He failed to draw from the “best and the brightest” in filling posts, rather he drew from croneyism and paybacks like anyone else. If anything, by the end of his term, his approval could be lower than Bush’s. I mean come on–at least everyone I knew realized Bush wasn’t the sharpest pencil in the box. Obama played with people’s hopes and dreams and that’s a high risk proposition.
The market…I’m sure everyone sees the same stuff I see on my charts. Everyone knows the levels. The market still seems event and technically driven, not fundamentally. Everyone knows that September statistically sucks. And everyone on this sight believes that green shoots were hopes and dreams. 90% of the economists leaning one way can only mean one thing–they’re wrong. Even is 3q is a positive GDP number, one number doesn’t make a trend. See Rosenberg for more fun there…
What I don’t see is a looming problem that everyone is downplaying. If you think back there has usually been a festering issue that has been put off or downplayed. Then it blows like Mt. Vesuvius… What is it this time? And if there isn’t anything out there–I still think we go down, but don’t test the previous lows.
Things it could be: FDIC running out of insurance? Several regional banks with CRE and C&L blow-ups? An outside exogenous event (terror, incursion, failed diplomacy?), a surprise bankruptcy of size (not sure how this could happen without precursor telegraphing), a surprise D.C. resignation of some significant post?, pre-announcement season…. I don’t know.
It is interesting how violently some of the asia markets have been correcting over the past week or so and we are oblivious…
Is Bloomberg radio/TV hurting? They’ve changed the tv program in the morning to simulcast the Surveilance show now. I really like it, but is it permanent? Seems like a good cost cutting move to me.
August 19th, 2009 at 6:53 am
Not sure how bailing out the rich is “ultraliberal”.
August 19th, 2009 at 7:09 am
It is only ultraliberal if you devise plans that don’t work….
:)
(Giggle, smile, snort, grin, heh-heh…….)
August 19th, 2009 at 7:28 am
Futures look ugly:
INDEX VALUE CHANGE OPEN HIGH LOW TIME
DJIA INDEX 9,130.00 -77.00 9,209.00 9,209.00 9,119.00 07:02
S&P 500 980.20 -9.40 989.10 989.60 977.50 07:02
NASDAQ 100 1,567.50 -19.50 1,585.75 1,585.75 1,566.75 07:02
S&P/TSE 60 640.50 7.80 636.00 641.70 633.90 08/18
MEX BOLSA 27,632.00 151.00 27,509.00 27,700.00 27,509.00 08/18
BOVESPA 56,376.00 641.00 56,065.00 56,500.00 55,800.00 08/18
August 19th, 2009 at 8:01 am
That was the one thing I pointed out as “polar opposite” of his other actions. Polar opposite–meaning not “ultraliberal”…
August 19th, 2009 at 8:07 am
I did think of another event that could be a surprise… H1N1. This thing never really went away in the off season-which was concerning to those experts who are supposed to be concerned. If people are advised to reduce their exposure to the public by staying home (from school, from work, from shopping, from events), it could certainly have an adverse effect on the economy.
Oh, and we are in hurricane season. But there is no shortage of oil. Sugar. With the shortage here, there should be enormous pressure to remove the tariffs on foreign sugar. Now that family down in FL that has had politicians in their pockets for a couple decades might not like that, but they’ll just have to deal. There is a grassroot backlash against HFCS and a drive to use sugar again in soda, cookies, snacks, etc. Bad for corn, good for sugar, and better for our societies health.
August 19th, 2009 at 8:32 am
cvienne-
my guess is you are not up yet- some late time stamps on this thread-
went to Yahoo to sign up earlier this morning- and alas- says league is full-
let me know-
ahab
August 19th, 2009 at 8:49 am
“Not sure how bailing out the rich is “ultraliberal”.
no doubt- why Obama isn’t called out on this from the left only proves that both parties are about control and power- not about any supposed beliefs
August 19th, 2009 at 9:00 am
But, JasRas, without sugar tariffs, how will the sugar industry be able to survive to destroy the Everglades?
August 19th, 2009 at 9:01 am
“Tonight on Kudlow Report there was a U of Chicago economist who was debating the failure of the economic stiumulus plan- can someone tell me what his website was called? Thanks”
No but I do have a lot of links to “the moonlanding was fake” sites. One denial of reality is as good as another. They all use the same old tricks.
August 19th, 2009 at 9:04 am
r.e. cvienne’s ff league:
Way late to the thread, as in…
There was a problem
This league is full. (Error #221)
I’m ok with ‘you snooze, you lose’ if it has to be that way.
August 19th, 2009 at 9:06 am
@ahab
OK…[League]…I’ll look into it…
There are a few of you (you, ben, I-Man) that I’d promised spots to a few weeks ago…
Some of the people who signed up last night have already volunteered to step back to allow the reserved spots in…
I will probably jump the team roster from 10 to 12 teams to get as many possible people in… Let me work on that.
August 19th, 2009 at 9:15 am
cvienne-
keep me posted
August 19th, 2009 at 9:19 am
r.e. the league: Is there enough interest for two leagues (2×10 people)? You could have the ‘regulars’ league and the ‘spectator’ league :)
August 19th, 2009 at 9:32 am
Too depressing discussing politics, healthcare plan, spineless, idiotic, worthless Congress.
So can i get a music recommendation or 2?
I’m too old for the iTunes top 100.
August 19th, 2009 at 9:40 am
JasRas write “a looming problem that everyone is downplaying … Then it blows like Mt. Vesuvius”
how about the failure of “the great experiment” safety nets to the GOPs glee*
(ie Welfair, Medicare, Medicaid, Unemployment Ins, Fredie Fannie, Workmans Comp Ins, etc etc)
back to the days of accrued power and influence .. take it or leave it .. to .. nowhere
we’ve been recently conditioned here in the great america that teamwork unity ends at the corporate fence .. that “winning” will be accrued with your employment .. we seem to have lost the pledge to America
seems there really isn’t enough to go around …. this pyramid distribution scheme is a mess
*coda – not so when there in time .. I believe it will be another “be careful what you wish for moment” .. but its the rally call to(for) power
August 19th, 2009 at 9:41 am
Since the demand for the TBP FF League is so great, I will sacrifice my reserved spot…
I am already in 3 other leagues, so its no beef for me. Yes, you can call me a junkie.
:)
I cant believe I missed the Open Thread last night! I had lots of garden talk to hammer out with you CV…
Am I the only one sick of eating squash???
August 19th, 2009 at 9:50 am
> Am I the only one sick of eating squash???
That’s GOT to come from a (summer?) gardener!
Some day I hope to join you, for now I’m just sad to see the summer vegetables disappearing from Costco.
I-Man I think you should keep your reserved spot.. I’d sacrifice my reservation to let you in (if I was in!)… you’re one of the commenters who makes this place what it is and I think it should be the same in the cvienne league.
While we’re on the topic of football, my salsa recipe: finely diced tomatos (canned actually seem to work better than fresh), onions (usually yellow), jalapenos (to the served group’s taste), cilantro (key), lime juice, salt, pepper. It’s a hit every time.
August 19th, 2009 at 9:57 am
@I-Man @pmorrisonfl
BOTH of you guys have reserved spots in the League (as well as ahab)…as all of you had reserved spots with me a few weeks ago…
I needed to use the opportunity of the Open Thread last night to get this thing going…
I’ll let all three of you know how I’ll slide you in…It won’t be hard, I just need to press a few buttons…
All of you have to be cool with a August 30th (Sunday AM) draft…I-Man, that’s going to be early for you (6AM – your time), so run it by me if you’re not down with that…
Also…guys…I want to keep this FF talk on this OPEN THREAD ONLY and not let it bleed into the other threads (for obvious reasons)…
Once the league is set, I can communicate with you all via the league e-mail addresses (so there will be no need to chatter about it over BR’s blog)…
Perhaps, on occasion, we’ll provide TBP with STANDINGS given the Open Thread opportunities that might occur in the future.
Peace!
August 19th, 2009 at 9:59 am
I’m actually really torn about it bro… the FF football thing. On the one hand, I feel married to the idea of TBP FF Team… but after looking at the demand I thought better of it. If other people really want my spot, I am happy to surrender to the flow. Like I said, I’m already in three leagues, which almost has me at a player in every game depending on how drafts go.
As per salsa, I have started adding in a little apple cider vinegar… makes a huge difference. And my thai hots will rip your face off.
I’ve had squash at just about every meal ‘sides breakfast for about three weeks now. And just pulled my first ear of white corn last night… so sugary sweet I had to eat it raw right out of the husk.
We’re pretty much wrapping it up at Dread Gardens this season, didnt go for the double harvest this year. Too much work. Still have carrots, broccoli, corn, tomatos, a few walla walla’s, and peppers (thai hots, anaheims, habeneros) ripening. Only thing left to fruit are the edamame…
August 19th, 2009 at 10:04 am
@cvienne agree, heartily, on the ‘no bleed’ policy for FF/open thread.
Less agreement about the Sunday 9am EST draft. (volunteer for childcare at church, (most of) the ‘parents just don’t understand’ about FF drafts. Can I submit my preferences ahead of time and take my chances?
August 19th, 2009 at 10:07 am
@I-Man
Nice gesture… You’ll be “bummed” in about two months if you’re not mixing it up with us… So think about it and let me know cause I still can make final adjustments, but I’m going to lock this up soon.
August 19th, 2009 at 10:08 am
@I-man I think gardening is the next bubble (followed by canning)… and you’re obviously in early. My mouth is watering.
August 19th, 2009 at 10:09 am
@pmorrisonfl
as soon as I get the teams locked in, I’ll do a e-mail (via the league) to all the team owners…
By that method, we’ll do a final determination on the exact draft time…
Your preference is noted…
August 19th, 2009 at 10:09 am
I know its lame… but did anyone propose an autodraft for simplicity?
I’m doing one in one of my leagues, and its actually kind of serene letting the chips fall where they may.
Anyone want to talk tape on this thread for awhile this morning?
The shenanigans are going exactly according to plan… love the pump in crude this morning ahead of inventory numbers, love the SPX action.
Looking for some SCO sub 16.50 and some SDS sub 46.50…
August 19th, 2009 at 10:11 am
Lock me in CV… lock it. The Natty Dreads are in.
August 19th, 2009 at 10:13 am
Sport related–
Went down to Mex City last week to watch some real futbol.
MEX 2-1 US
Conditions difficult but not for the committed…….
August 19th, 2009 at 10:32 am
Just snagged SCO @ 16.16
August 19th, 2009 at 10:53 am
Geez… I guess I’ll chatter with my damn self then.
Sacrificed the idea of going SPX short this morning in favor of the USO short… which was served up to I-Man on a silver platter just now.
So Dread will leverage some SCO today, and stay away from the equity short. That said, getting some SDS around 46.75 with a stop placed around 46.35 would be an excellent set up… Just not for I and I today.
Its all the same trade anyways, regardless of if you’re long UUP, short USO, short SPX, long FXY, short FXE, long EEV, long FXP, short EWZ, short GLD, long ZSL…
But you all know this. The tricky part is not “over risking” yourself playing too heavy in this one idea over a spectrum of trades. Position sizing with respect to “one idea” is critical in this environment. Just think how “pro” we will all be when markets return to a low vol, established steady trend, kind of environment.
August 19th, 2009 at 10:56 am
@ beaufou:
“The unemployment situation makes me sick to my stomach,
the private sector created no jobs in the last ten years, it was all government (the info is from here).
Every State is broke and ready to make big cuts, so we have a huge amount of unemployed people, a huge amount of soon to be and a huge amount of kids entering the work force with no chance.
When I hear about jobless recovery, I don’t know if I should laugh or cry, because as far as I can tell, the middle class has turned to crumbs and is broke, whoever thinks folks are spending tomorrow is out of his head.”
The unemployment situation is not going to improve anytime soon, as we have gutted the U.S. of manufacturing jobs that have been sent to China (by way of Japen, The Phillipines, Malaysia, etc.) with anything else being service or financial support. We have a collapsed economy, which was based on the consumer spending, and that will not be quick to return, as it only went on as long as everyone could put spending on credit. The financial institutions kept that going as long as they could by ignoring the risk of it and have now had their little game collapse with the housing market. With their homes disappearing as ATM’s and the financial institutions locking up credit, the consumer has no place to turn, except to work his way out of debt. The states and institutional funds were all based on this hopeless house of cards and the consumers are going to now get hit from that direction also. There is not much hope of this thing ever turning around. We need a different economy model.
August 19th, 2009 at 11:03 am
This is an open thread right? Do any of you know (or know where to find) how many “banks” are being proposed to Congress? I’ve heard of the following, but I’m thinking there are more:
“Bad Bank” to hold all the bad debt out there – I think this is gone, right?
“Infrastructure Bank” – to facilitate and generally administer the investment into roads, bridges, etc.
“Renewable Energy Bank” – for green initiatives and renewable energy – including possible loan guarantees for debt with such guarantee provided by the DOE.
Is there a “Healthcare bank” proposal? Others?
August 19th, 2009 at 11:04 am
@I-Man
Sorry…
Even though this was an open thread, I hogged it up too much last nite trying to get FF organized (so I’m kinda layin’ low)…
I’ll get you in the league…But here’s what I’m trying to do…I don’t want to get into publishing personal e-mails here on the blog…Do you communicate with either ben or Andy? Cause I could ask their permission to give me your e-mail, then send you a LOGIN INVITE.
August 19th, 2009 at 11:04 am
#I-Man But you all *know* this. The tricky part is not “over risking” yourself playing too heavy in this one idea over a spectrum of trades. Position sizing with respect to “one idea” is critical in this environment.
I’m *learning* all this, little by little, as y’all trickle your knowledge out. A year ago I’d have had a much vaguer idea of what you meant. BTW, I’v slowly been buying the books, reading and trying out the trading advice everyone so generously shared a couple months ago. I’ve opened an account with ThinkOrSwim and am playing with their ‘paperMoney’ tool as a way to try trade ideas out. COP has been a short-term loser, more than made up for by borrowing CV’s long-dated TLT call idea (thanks!). I think it’s about the same idea your’e spinning. In my real accounts, I’m all cash or short-dated treasuries.
And I couldn’t have even written all that a year ago.
August 19th, 2009 at 11:05 am
@cvienne AndyT has my email as well, and my permission to share it with you.
August 19th, 2009 at 11:09 am
@I-Man
…on the markets
I’m not really doing much today…I’m waiting for the dollar to finish backtesting here and hopefully spring to life…
It’s VERY disappointing today, to say the least (probably because of the Bill Gross comments)…
But it’s not getting totally taken out to the woodshed (so that might actually be a hidden positive)…
TLT doing nice…
I’m not fooling around with SPX…I went short with a few chips at 1008 & 1018, so I just have a STOP set on that (which was moved down from 1014, to 1008…I added a few chips to that yesterday at 900…
But frankly, anything from 1008 – 914 is what I’d expect to see within the next 4 weeks so I’m not all that hot & bothered about it…
August 19th, 2009 at 11:12 am
@pmorrisonfl
OK… Let’s not talk about it anymore though cause I’m not trying to turn Andy into a mule or anything. I just need a solution that’s expedient, and gets this business off the blog and into its proper place…
August 19th, 2009 at 11:12 am
@ CV: I think I will make a new yahoo email account anyway. I’ll keep you posted. I think when I register my team on the league it will send you my email address. (and no, its not “whiterasta420@yahoo.com”) :)
August 19th, 2009 at 11:16 am
@ben, I-Man, lefty
I’m watching this STALL in the dollar and I’m kind of scratching my head…
I’m sure the Bill Gross comments had something to do with the weakness today, but it’s not technically busted yet…
Maybe it’s just options pinning? Maybe someone is trying to avoid paying out a move above 24 on the UUP before Friday?
Who knows?
August 19th, 2009 at 11:17 am
Re: UUP
Looks like a classic shakeout to me. 23.35 is probably a stronger support level as thats where the breakout came from rather than 23.48.
23.35 works perfect with the daily TF uptrend from the 8/5 low.
UUP bouncing off 23.35 gave me more confidence in SCO.
August 19th, 2009 at 11:23 am
@cvienne;
I see that the league is filled up and because of the timing of getting it organized it left a couple people you previously promised a spot with not spot, if you need the extra space for someone you made a promise to, let me know and I will step back, but if it for a John come late who wants to join, I am staying in the league.
Off to work, so I won’t be able to respond untill later.
August 19th, 2009 at 11:38 am
@ CV:
Wasnt able to register because the league is full… I dont mind posting that email address here if you want me to. I dont want AT to have to play middleman.
August 19th, 2009 at 12:06 pm
@I-Man
Go ahead and post here in this thread and I’ll e-mail you a direct invite with the LOGIN info…
August 19th, 2009 at 12:08 pm
cole_diggy@yahoo.com
August 19th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
Solid brah…
August 19th, 2009 at 12:13 pm
SCO… is not solid.
Might have to stop outta this POS… starting to make I and I uncomfortable.
August 19th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
pmorrisonfl: pjm2@bellsouth.net
August 19th, 2009 at 12:59 pm
call me ahab Says:
August 19th, 2009 at 8:49 am
“Not sure how bailing out the rich is “ultraliberal”.
no doubt- why Obama isn’t called out on this from the left only proves that both parties are about control and power- not about any supposed beliefs
So true. So sad.
August 19th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
“impermanence Says:
August 18th, 2009 at 9:28 pm
I say it time to stop beating around the bush and lay it on the line. The country is now fascist, where do we go from here? I don’t have a book on the NYT best seller list, so I am not sure how civil it should be. Barry, you need to get some of your edge back. Don’t let success destroy you.
~~~
BR: Fascist? WTF are you talking about?”
If you don’t know what I am talking about, then you have explained yourself very well.