July Payrolls fell by 247k, much better than expectations of a decline of 325k and a clear differential from ADP. Net revisions in the prior two months were higher by 43k. A major factor was a decline of 52k in manufacturing, 48k better than expected. The seasonal distortions from the auto companies may have had an impact. The unemployment rate was 9.4%, .2% less than expected and down from 9.5% in June as the household survey fell by 155k while the labor force fell by 422k. The U6 rate which is all inclusive, fell .2% to 16.3%. Average hourly earnings rose .2%, .1% better than forecasted. Average weekly hours rose to 33.1 from the record low of 33. The areas of job growth occurred in education/health as has been seen, leisure/hospitality and the government, particularly at the federal level. Temp jobs, a precursor to permanent employment, fell by 10k vs a drop of 31k in June. The birth/death model added 32k, 7k more than July ’08. Bottom line, the number is welcome relief and a clear improvement but with seasonal distortions in manufacturing.

Category: MacroNotes

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

4 Responses to “Payrolls”

  1. DP says:

    So the trillion dollar question for the day is whether to trust the numbers: fluke or the beginning of a new trend? Haven’t had CNBC on yet today, how many times have they said “less bad” so far?

    Hi all btw, been away for a long time. Hope you’ve all been well whoever still remembers me. Is Steve Barry still around? I learned an important lesson from Steve – you can be right when everyone else is wrong, and for a long time, but still lose. QID never did hit $120 … but maybe he’ll get another shot.

  2. franklin411 says:

    An improving employment picture is the trend, not the exception:


  3. nanka says:

    If I’m not mistaken, the hours worked were higher, and the wages the same…what does that mean?

  4. impermanence says:

    “July Payrolls fell by 247k, much better than expectations…”

    …Bottom line, the number is welcome relief and a clear improvement but with seasonal distortions in manufacturing.”

    Expectations? Relief?? How sad.