Economix points to an interesting study by the Gallup people, which concludes there is no clear relationship between Presidential approval and the Dow.

Prez approval dow

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As was shown last election (2006), there is a much closer relationship between Presidential approval and gasoline prices:

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Gasoline Prices & Presidential Approval

bush gas index_28670_image001_1

Source: Big Picture, Pollkatz

Category: Commodities, Markets, Politics

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

51 Responses to “Presidential Approval vs Dow, Gasoline”

  1. Wes Schott says:

    chi-by-eye, but, for that data set, the correlation between dow and presidential approval looks negative

  2. dead hobo says:

    The good news is that natural gas is affordable now and will probably remain affordable this winter. People will be able to stay warm without running through a thought process that causes them to decide what will have to be given up to turn the thermostat to something comfortable.

    Oil is still the province of thieves who know how to make their greed look like the act of a passive bystander. Too bad.

    The consumer won’t start buying until the price of oil looks like it isn’t a tool of extortion. And even then, the consumer will wait at least six months before trusting it will stay low. All the stimulus, gimmicks, clever monetization of debt schemes, and rebates won’t matter.

    Fix oil, fix the world. It’s really just that simple.

  3. Pat G. says:

    I see a correlation between Obama and the DOW. Look at February, when Obama was signing the public stimulus program and most on Wall St were saying what a waste it is. Then in March, more money for corporate America and the public was saying what a waste it is. In April and May the two trends held steady but eventually changed paths. The public continued to lose jobs, houses continued to lose their value and there was piecemeal stimulus for them. On the corporate side, it was getting clearer to Wall St that Obama was not only going to continue Bush’s policies but he was going to expand them. Suddenly the focus became Wall St again. In July, when it was clear to the public that the Obama Administration was more intent on helping corporate America than they, even at the expense of large fiscal deficits, his popularity began to wane. Conversely, when it became clear to Wall St that the Obama Administration was going to pull out all the stops by trying to prop up all the zombie companies, the consumers and the housing markets his popularity began to gain. Now, that the public realizes that the change Obama promised was all about getting elected AND Wall St is back to business as usual with the blessing and backing of the USG (the public), the trend lines are diametrically opposed. It’s all about perspective.

  4. Wes Schott says:

    @Pat G -

    upon reading your post and looking at the 1st chart again –

    agree, the first half is somewhat positively correlated, while the second half is decidedly negatively correlated.

    nothing like a little fundamental analysis to get me brain thinkin’ ;-)

  5. Wes Schott says:

    @dh –

    good assessment

    i would imagine the dow and the oil charts have a similar character

    so, if they would have compared oil to prez approve instead of dow – same conclusion

  6. Pat G. says:

    @ Wes

    My pleasure…

  7. alfred e says:

    All good posts.

    And BR did a great job of presenting some thoughtful charts.

    Hello. BS Obama will not touch WS in a meaningful way with a ten foot pole. They pay the rent.

    Maybe the message is they’d better exercise some restraint and not bleed the sheeple too ferociously.

    Keep the host alive. Parasites.

  8. up here in Canada PetroCan actually put their gas on sale this week. They were selling gas card for 33% off the points plan conversion rate(10K instead of 15K of points needed for the card). I have never seen a gas company put their gas on sale. I assume their tankers are getting mighty full.

    It is all a gimmick though considering they have all put their prices up by about 10% over the summer and the savings is about 5%. It still strikes me as unusual. I assume when all those new gas sippers start hitting the road that will have an impact on consumption and thus prices too

  9. Andy T says:

    that gasoline/bush chart is amazing. I didn’t realize it was such a tight correlation.

    People do get really pissed with high gasoline prices.

  10. km4 says:

    Mauldin: No Good Economic Choices for U.S.
    http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/08/mauldin_no_good.html

    We will kick the can down the road, hoping for a miracle ?
    Probably

    I see little room for us to avoid a double-dip recession.
    Yup !

  11. VennData says:

    Obama hates America. How do I know? I listen to Rupert Murdock’s tabloids… er… a… News. I listen to Fox News. I didn’t listen to Obama say to buy American stocks here on March 4th…

    http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/obama/2009/03/04/obama-says-buy-stocks-now-good-deals-there-for-long-term-investors.html

    I listened to Glenn Beck, and Rush.. and O’Reilly… I read Holman Jenkins (Obama will never BK GM… he will “take over the US airlines”) . I read the Wall Street Journal (the stimulus will ruin the economy… Clinton’s budgets’ will ruin the economy too) I trust Rupert Murdock’s Journal… because he cares about me… I listen to Fox News (they care about me too) and Chris Whalen (he knew Citi was going BK… it was “inevitable”) and David Goldman (“Obama is the number one problem in America”) …and Zero Hedge (an honest, trustworthy gentleman) and didn’t buy stocks when Obama… that alleged Commander in Chief… (where’s his Placenta?!?!)

    http://www.theonion.com/content/news_briefs/afterbirthers_demand_to_see

    …of the United States of America told me to.

    I missed out on the 50% rally, sure, but I still support Murdock and all the rest. I hate all those liberals who have made 50% on their money. I hate them. Stocks need to come back down to teach those liberals a lesson. They will. I know they will. I FEEL it.

    /mocking

    Hey right-wing clowns. Nice blue hair. It’s you. Time to get a job, morons. FYI, your boss… She’s a liberal!

  12. franklin411 says:

    @KM4
    The President’s agenda is not to rely on “hope” to restore America’s economic prowess. It is to remedy the fact that 80% of the American people have been locked out of having an equal chance to play the game. It’s to remedy the fact that Ronald Reagan financed the false “prosperity” of the 1980s by denying Americans equal access to the kinds of educational opportunities that grow GDP. It’s to address the fact that, as Hobo states, the American economy has been mugged as trillions of dollars flowed out of the country to buy barrels of dead dinosaurs.

    No “prosperity” can ever endure if it is based on the 20% of the population that owns 85% of the wealth denying an equal opportunity to the other 80%.

  13. Mannwich says:

    @franklin411: How exactly is maintaining Wall Street’s death grip on our markets, economy and country accomplishing what you describe? You are in for a rude awakening when you wake up one day and realize just how bamboozled you’ve been.

  14. km4 says:

    Hello franklin411 Says:

    Rather than posting a litany of points that crushes the false ‘hope and change’ from Obama I’ll let Larry Flynt tell it like it really is ;)

    Common Sense 2009
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/larry-flynt/common-sense-2009_b_264706.html

    The American government — which we once called our government — has been taken over by Wall Street, the mega-corporations and the super-rich. They are the ones who decide our fate. It is this group of powerful elites, the people President Franklin D. Roosevelt called “economic royalists,” who choose our elected officials — indeed, our very form of government. Both Democrats and Republicans dance to the tune of their corporate masters. In America, corporations do not control the government. In America, corporations are the government.

    This was never more obvious than with the Wall Street bailout, whereby the very corporations that caused the collapse of our economy were rewarded with taxpayer dollars. So arrogant, so smug were they that, without a moment’s hesitation, they took our money — yours and mine — to pay their executives multimillion-dollar bonuses, something they continue doing to this very day. They have no shame.

  15. km4 says:

    Stiglitz: Thanks to the Deficit, the Buck Stops Here
    Joseph Stiglitz repeats a warning that he and others have made in the past that, like it or not, the dollar’s days as a reserve currency are numbered.
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/28/AR2009082802111.html

  16. matt says:

    This is amusing:

    “Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) — Canada plans to sell as much as $3 billion of U.S.-dollar bonds worldwide in “the near future,” the first such sale in more than a decade, to boost foreign- exchange reserves and support lending by the International Monetary Fund.”
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=ayrdiLM55oKU

    I wonder if this is going to be like when the English Exchequer decided to divest its holdings of gold. If I see more of these USD denominated sovereigns, I’ll know to go even longer USD.

  17. call me ahab says:

    venndata

    put a paper bag over your head so you don’t hyperventilate -

    douche- bagggggg

  18. Swampfox says:

    Wow, the socialists are taking over the blog tonight: Damn the fox news, free education will fix it all, equal opportunity, damn Pareto and his stupid law, damn human nature, damn reality, and damn to hell anyone with money who says it ain’t so.

  19. lw says:

    The gas price / presidential approval chart scares the heck out of me…

    Unless you believe that the US dollar is going to magically get stronger in the face of trillion dollar annual deficits, everything with a global price (including gas) is going to get pricey in the USA.

    So I guess this means that China now controls Obama’s approval rating… They like the O’man, they buy bonds.. They don’t….

  20. wunsacon says:

    >> Oil is still the province of thieves

    I see insufficient evidence of thievery.

    Natural gas is produced locally. And we learned we can produce much more than anticipated just a few years ago.

    Oil is in the hands of other countries who don’t see why they should sell it to us in exchange for chits they already have too many of and can’t use to buy something they need in quantity.

    Because oil alone is the item we import in bulk and rely on for our comfy existence, it is the one item that rises quickly as the dollar drops.

    It doesn’t matter that people store a few *days* worth of oil in tankers. OPEC will keep cutting production — or simply not invest in new projects to reverse regular declines — if we keep printing more dollars.

  21. wunsacon says:

    At this point, we are damned if we do or don’t.

  22. Steve Barry says:

    @km4

    Thanks for the Stiglitz link…I must say that as a pure economist, he’s now my favorite. I bet if he were Fed Chairman if he would make those hard choices…I guess that’s why he never will be Fed Chairman.

    Since inflation would help alleviate the debt bubble, I can’t see it happening…the debt crash is quite defaltionary on its own.

  23. postmodernprimate says:

    “Economix points to an interesting study by the Gallup people, which concludes there is no clear relationship between Presidential approval and the Dow.”

    This is going to be covered heavily on bizarro-CNBC with bizarro-Kudler chastising Obama for “ignoring Main Street to waste his time trying to keep Wall Street happy when this study proves what a complete waste of time that is.”

  24. torrie-amos says:

    Billy Mays new gizmo can now be had for two easy payments of ten dollars each. I remember the days of 3 easy 40 dollar payments.

  25. scm0330 says:

    @F411 – For all of your overheated rhetoric, I have never once heard you give even the slightest nod to the notion of personal responsibility as a necessary force in one’s life. Instead, everyone’s a victim, of evil tax cuts, of a game that’s forever tilted against the little guy, and especially of heartless Republicans who want to kill poor people. In your world no one can get ahead, or should get ahead, without the compassion of The Collective propping them up. They’ve tried that model elsewhere. Didn’t work.

  26. mathman says:

    @scmo330:

    As if the corporate police state agenda that’s been going on for the past decade, which got us to where we are now, is the correct way to run a country, or the world for that matter, anywhere but into the ground.

    Don’t be so smug. You don’t have the answers either.

  27. wunsacon says:

    >> In your world no one can get ahead, or should get ahead, without the compassion of The Collective propping them up.

    I think I would call that a gross distortion…

  28. dead hobo says:

    torrie-amos Says:
    August 30th, 2009 at 7:45 am

    Billy Mays new gizmo can now be had for two easy payments of ten dollars each. I remember the days of 3 easy 40 dollar payments.

    reply:
    —————-
    His overhead is a low lower now.

  29. beaufou says:

    @wunsacon

    In the taibbi article about Goldman Sachs, he mentions oil being traded 27 times before reaching the consumer, there is quite a bit of thievery in doing so.

  30. wunsacon says:

    Beaufou, okay. Thanks, I’ll read that article.

  31. cvienne says:

    @mathman

    I HAVE THE ANSWERS!

    Wait…I misplaced them…Jeez they’re around here somewhere…

    I’ll be right back!

  32. cvienne says:

    @beaufor

    “he mentions oil being traded 27 times before reaching the consumer, there is quite a bit of thievery in doing so”

    …and yet, people think “CAP & TRADE” is all about global warming.

  33. wunsacon says:

    Japan’s new leadership says it wants to be slightly more independent from the US (D.C./Wall Street?). Uh oh. Can we still count on those Treasury purchases??

    “Hi, Mr. Hatoyama. This is Timmy-san. We’re starting our pledge drive for this year. Should I pencil you in for the same amount as your predecessor?”

  34. wunsacon says:

    cvienne, yes, people will make money from trading greenhouse gas limits. I still want those limits.

  35. Winston Munn says:

    franklin411 wrote::

    “The President’s agenda is not to rely on “hope” to restore America’s economic prowess. It is to remedy the fact that 80% of the American people have been locked out of having an equal chance to play the game.”

    I wish this were the case but it is more important to watch deeds than listen to empty phases and promises. The truth is that politicians are so reliant upon corporate contributions that no party can afford to alienate their corporate sponsors. Rahm Emanuel knows this. And so does Barrack Obama.

    It is the reason in any health care final bill there will be no competition from foreign drug makers, no public option provision, and no change that isn’t ratified by the health care lobby.

    We may see change in the number of house and senate seats marked “D” or “R”, but real change is an illusion.

  36. royrogers says:

    1. Wes Schott Says:
    August 29th, 2009 at 3:44 pm

    chi-by-eye, but, for that data set, the correlation between dow and presidential approval looks negative
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

    I guess the avg voter does not have big $$ in the stock market,
    they should do a chart with millionaire approvals along side the dow

  37. going broke says:

    As long as the politicians are being bribed and the Govt. keeps passing money out the back door, the gap between the rich and poor will grow.

    CBO’s Economic Projections for Calendar Years 2009 to 2019

    http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/105xx/doc10521/budgetprojections.pdf

    These numbers must come from the Prediction Czar #48. Get ready for a 2nd recession, if, when, this one ever ends.

  38. beaufou says:

    @cvienne
    I think Jon Stewart put it best with his cap’n trade skit.
    http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/tue-july-21-2009/jon-stewart-jizz-ams-in-front-of-children—cap-n-trade
    Bill Moyers also had activists on his show dismayed at the final bill as it won’t change much of anything.
    Same old story for Healthcare and everything under the sun, I just can’t believe anyone even bothers listening to politicians.
    I remember Krugman arguing speculation was good for the environment, no surprise he’s now arguing more stimulus and bailouts are good for the economy, I guess he wants a government job, clever bugger.

  39. Greg0658 says:

    I thoroughly enjoyed this site and recommend it. Hearing so many yachting stories over this grand funeral weekend, I was wondering about this “Honey Fitz” boat, what it looks like, as an owner of a 15′ open bow V to Straked Tri-hull myself .. tiny in comparison to these yachts .. any TBP readers with a boat will enjoy the scales possible here in America and the stories of repossessions (or transfers) by government departments to another, falling into disrepair and sold for scrap to the private sector (and replaced), and purchases like the one by Elvis Presley and others by drug dealers and hense confiscated.

    This site has a great historical story of the 11 Presidential Yachts (I think).

    “The Honey Fitz” “The Lenore (8th) was a vessel of 94 tons displacement, length 92 feet, beam 16 feet and draft of 5 feet. Built in 1931 for Sewell Avery, Chairman of Montgomery Ward”. “The Lenore was refitted and on March 7, 1961 was renamed the Honey Fitz, honoring JFK’s maternal grandfather, former Mayor of Boston. “President Nixion renamed the yacht Tricia” .. “The yacht was completly restored and refitted as it was during Kennedys term and was used for charters based in New York City. She was sold to unknown buyers at the Kennedy Memorabilia Auctions for $5,942,500″
    http://home.mchsi.com/~cbretvet/Yachts/Yachts3.html

    “President Johnson did not rename the Honey Fitz and prefered it to the larger Sequoia” .. The Margie (9th) renamed The Julie by Nixon, Ike renamed her The Susie E … The Guardian (10th) .. The Sequoia (11th)

    It’s getting complicated to write this post … this old school website (complete without advertising) should be started with the first Presidential Yacht on page:
    http://home.mchsi.com/~cbretvet/Yachts/Yachts.html

    “Was the Sequoia the last Presidential Yacht ever?? As an old retired navy person, I hope not. There is something to be said for those who go down to the sea in ships. JFK loved the sea and the Honey Fitz with its 4 diesel engines and narrow beam was one of his favorite places.” .. as well as the late Senator Edward Kennedy.

    (quotes are cut and paste from the site)

  40. Marcus Aurelius says:

    We need to do away with the legal concept of a corporation being a “person” (or corpus) within the law (this non-distinction is the mother of all loopholes). Personal responsibility cannot be exercised by a non-person, and the shield provided by the formation of a new entity out of less than ether is at the root of the criminality we have witnessed. Personal responsibility, indeed.

  41. Marcus Aurelius says:

    Last comment was in response to this (forgot to hit the “Submit Comment” button):

    Winston Munn Says:

    franklin411 wrote::

    es. The truth is that politicians are so reliant upon corporate contributions that no party can afford to alienate their corporate sponsors. Rahm Emanuel knows this. And so does Barrack Obama.

  42. Winston Munn says:

    Isn’t is quaint that the powerful globalization-is-good-for-you lobby does not want to allow competition from foreign drug makers – the very same lobbyists who argue against tariffs on WalMart’s imports of Chinese junk.

    Wait. I see the problem – this won’t all fit on a bumper sticker:

    Globalization is good for you; I never said it was good for me.

  43. alfred e says:

    @beaufeau: Stewart video is too true.

    Cap’n Trade is a WS/speculator serving disaster.

    Carbon limits are an empty shell. Nothing there.

    True limits and true action would cuase irreparable harm to an already wounded society.

    If speculative gains were totally directed toward clean energy and alternative energy, maybe. But won’t happen.

    Velocity of money approaching zero. Billions are not enough. The elite now need trillions.

  44. impermanence says:

    “Economix points to an interesting study by the Gallup people, which concludes there is no clear relationship between Presidential approval and the Dow. As was shown last election (2006), there is a much closer relationship between Presidential approval and gasoline prices.”

    Even if the President wasn’t a complete joke, who could possible care what the relationship is between the price and anything and his approval rating?

  45. Greg0658 says:

    fyi . imo .. on the induced recommendation of my local nationally syndicated dj .. if ya got it .. pull out Styx “The Grand Illusion” and play in the background of the Presidential Yachts story

  46. Greg0658 says:

    duh – the whole album – not just the cut .. ya gotta be so complete in this _______ world

  47. Greg0658 says:

    since I’m running two steps and a hour ahead of yas (in real time)(not GMT) .. try follow up with Dire Straits from Love Over Gold “Telegraph Road”

  48. cvienne says:

    @Greg0658

    I’m two steps behind because I’m trying to remember whether I have those things on 8-Track, vinyl, cassette, CD, or mp3…

  49. Greg0658 says:

    fyi . imo .. the last album mentioned is no sloutch either .. I broke at the tail end of the title track to find* … remember back in the day .. one artist picked a little bit of this, a little bit of that, and poof chord Progression

    * “Change” by Tears for Fears .. the marimbas got me .. which begot “Mad World” (and beyond) … as much as I’m questioning the film world these days “Donny Darko” ranked right up there with The Matrix I in mind bending thought
    ….
    :-) got all them platforms myself … um – were 78′s on vinyl or some other Industrial Disease compound?

  50. [...] There seems to be a more positive correlation, on the other hand, between Presidential approval ratings and the price of gasoline: [...]

  51. [...] week, we looked at the relationship between Presidential Approval rating and the Dow — and found it to be [...]