My quote:

“This is a trading rally not a multi-year rally,” he says. Eventually something’s got to give: “We’ve never had six-month period before where we’ve lost two million jobs and the market’s gained 50%,” he says. “That’s simply unprecedented.”

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Source:
Professionals Are Buying The Stock Market Rally. Are You?
Peter Gorenstein
Yahoo Tech Ticker, August 21, 2009 08:00am EDT

http://bit.ly/4ak0hM

Category: Finance, Video

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

10 Responses to “Professionals Are Buying The Stock Market Rally. Are You?”

  1. quiddity says:

    I agree with the outlook that there’s still some upward movement, even though I think it’s disconnected from reality. Market momentum and all that.

    As BR notes, it’s unprecedented to see such movement in the face of huge unemployment numbers. Which leads me to what’s been bugging me for months: Why wasn’t there a decent period – say 4 months – when the markets were steady at the lows? I remember the 70′s and the early 80′s and there was a pessimism that kept people from buying, at least for a while.

    Instead, we have witnessed in the last 12 months the following: Sell, Sell, Sell, Buy, Buy, Buy

    Where was the Sell, Sell, Sell, nothing-going-0n, nothing-going-on, Buy, Buy Buy pattern?

    Actually, this ‘bounce’ phenomenon reminds me of the two bounces that took place in 2001 and 2002 – when it was mostly psychological due to 9/11 (although there was a post dot-com bubble slump overlaid on the charts).

    But this time, unlike ’01 and ’02, it isn’t psychological. There’s serious problems with the credit/housing losses and I do not see how that’s been cured so fast. I expect it to take 4 years to re-balance this economy (balance being the proper mix of saving, wage growth, import/export, etc). Is the market that forward looking? I doubt it.

    Anyway, if someone can explain why we didn’t experience an extended period at the lows (doesn’t have to be at the lowest point), I’d be eager to hear it.

  2. marakima says:

    Doh, I posted this under the wrong topic. Here it is again:

    Interesting appearance on Tech Ticker, particularly regarding contrary indicators — noting that the bearish public sentiment exhibited on TT’s comments section (and perhaps on this blog) is generally thought of as being indicative of a market bottom rather than a top, could the _really_ contrary position be that perhaps, just for once, the bearish public has gotten it right?

  3. ben22 says:

    BR,

    Nice comments on the idea of the Sept/Oct pullback, that’s crowded now, so probably wrong. There are lots of crowded ideas: inflation, dollar collapse, gold way up from here, China taking over, etc.

    You hedge yourself really well in these interviews. You are a lot smarter than a lot of the people that go on these shows for doing that. I think the bottom line is you remain flexible, why can’t more people just use that as a strategy?

  4. [...] over why I thought this is now a dangerous rally — but one that can continue for some time. (Video Here) [...]

  5. jrm says:

    you kinda physically look like a bear. (no offense)

  6. droubal says:

    I think the reason that we did not experience a more extended low market can be seen in MSM headlines like today. Home sales up most in 10 years. That is based on a raw data bit without any interpretation.

    Gov’t. is likewise making every positive statement possible to get the public to think things are much better than they are.

    Wall Street loves it because they make money when you buy and when you sell. If you win or lose they don’t care they just want you money in play.

  7. GB says:

    To me it makes me feel that there is too much money floating around in the wrong places. March to me was a low because the banks were selling to raise capital. Then m2m let them put it right back into the market and I believe more with rates basically at zero.

    So maybe we are at an different era now where those that don’t invest or play in markets get crushed by inflation and low wages. Just a thought. Since we don’t have to work as hard to produce materials and products then we have to do something else correct?

  8. royrogers says:

    is it possible the mom and pops don’t jump in to push this market higher ??

  9. bruerr says:

    Barry you look pretty good lately when on the toob. Congrats on all your success with the book and in fellowship with investing community.

    Aside from that, Goldman Sachs is still a parasite in the economy.

    As for the automated trading platform and being commissioned by the Fed Reserve to act in concert with Fed’s 2 trillion in off balance sheet transactions to interfere in normal market operations, well, I think this speaks of the mindset of corrupt persons, who exult themselves over the rule of law, and impose “toxic assets” on the greater common, rather than act responsibly to contain those debts (and NOT let them leak out on neighbors or people at home).

    I know, it is popular to think of GS and the recent bull market as America’s buddy, and you might want us to adore the all the fuckin corruption from N.Y. to D.C,; including the wretch in charge of the FDIC who lets Secretary Geithner broker off toxic assets with backing of that organization and does not make a single outcry or a sustained outcry against the PPIP program. Obviously run by engineers other than Geithner, who favor N.Y’s finest large banks.

    -SNIP-

  10. bruerr says:

    They are the worst amongst the NY elite. They serve no country. They have no honor. They love no nation! Ritzholtz! …..They have no genuine leadership skill. If they did, they would have been the first to stand up in defense of capitalism and capitalist rules of law; especially during an economic emergency.

    Good leadership does not abandon capitalist rule of law, just because an emergency arises. But GS/JPMorgan/MorganStanley executives were among the first to go silent about the rule of law, when it came time for them to unload their debt on people who did not sign for those debts. …”We are all in this together” … except when it comes to fraudulent conversion of tax payer funds into bonus pay. … Aint that right Barry? …They have been silent about capitalism since that time.