A few things to note about this rally:

• The volume is absurdly light– even for August;

•Today is an expiration day, with the bias to the upside;

• Professionals are fully invested; Individuals are mostly under-invested;

• Markets are now 53% up from the March lows;

Yesterday, I did an interview with Yahoo Tech Ticker going over why I thought this is now a dangerous rally — but one that can continue for some time. (Video Here)

Category: Technical Analysis, Trading

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

188 Responses to “Rally Time Items to Watch”

  1. cvienne says:

    What did I miss here for the past two hours while driving out to the farm?

    Oh…I see, a 140 point rally…

    ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

    • The volume is absurdly light– even for August;

    •Today is an expiration day, with the bias to the upside;

    • Professionals are fully invested; Individuals are mostly under-invested

    Somebody wake me when one of those “indvividuals” you mention decides to step up and buy Lloyd Blankfeins portfolio…

    This kinda trading reminds me of the last wave of house flippers…

  2. leftback says:

    5. This is held together by DUCT TAPE (Dollar Undermining Carry Trade: Toxic Asset Protection Exercises)

  3. truthortalk says:

    Yeah but the good news:

    there’s now photographic evidence of green shoots in the shipping industry – Baltic Dry Indec to recover shortly, I imagine.

    http://truthortalk.wordpress.com/2009/08/21/baltic-dry-index-now-set-to-spike-on-green-shoots/

  4. zyzy says:

    did you guys checked the marketwatch – “Bernake saved world” article.
    Only an hour passed and it already has over 1000 comments. ( 1098 to be precise ).

    And for all you who doesn’t believe in The Market – it’s still going up, still strong…
    why am i always end up with the “wrong” people ? I got to get closer to Ben…

  5. AmenRa says:

    Blew through the 38.2% retrace on the S&P. Bears are going to have a hard time corralling the bulls. Patience mis amigos.

  6. JustinTheSkeptic says:

    But still the insider selling continues….hmmm?

  7. franklin411 says:

    It’s a rare day off from lecture writing for me, but I’m sorry to say I didn’t catch this move. I was expecting another triple digit down day earlier this week so I could spend my 2009 IRA contribution, but this market just won’t let me in. =(

  8. Onlooker from Troy says:

    zyzy

    Indeed. You’d have been in much better shape having an “ignorance is bliss” perspective and existence over the last few months. The key is when to wake up from that reverie. I had no idea the psychology of this market (world?) was so broken. Or maybe it is all that liquidity dynamic that I just don’t fully understand (and few do, I believe).

  9. leftback says:

    “I was expecting another triple digit down day earlier this week so I could spend my 2009 IRA contribution”

    5- and 10-year Treasuries are on sale today, franky boy. We are getting closer to a Wile E Coyote moment.

  10. Onlooker from Troy says:

    Did I mention “ignorance is bliss?” Exhibit A :)

  11. franklin411 says:

    @LB
    In blocks of less than $10000? ;-)

  12. Mannwich says:

    @Onlooker: The liquidity dynamic is only part of the story. The other part is that everyone is feverishly trying to recoup all or some of their losses from last year. Panic buying and greed still running the show. It’s all part of the new bubble economy.

  13. cvienne says:

    @f411

    Be patriotic…Buy some dollars & some govvies!

  14. Eric Davis says:

    Come-on Barry…. I need you to do a sentiment post!!! PLEASE!!!

    We have made swing highs on the last 2 fridays!

  15. Onlooker from Troy says:

    TreasuryDirect.gov

  16. Winston Munn says:

    Barry,

    How can you possibly doubt the nature of this upturn when it appears that stocks have reached a permanently high plateau, prosperity is right around the corner, and subprime is contained and will not affect the broader economy?

    Such Ben-Steinery!

  17. Mortimus says:

    Riding the market is easy

    Hey look mom, no fundamentals!

  18. cvienne says:

    @Andy T

    So whadda ya say Andy?

    I suppose the next stop is 1,044 (the high after the 10/10/08 meltdown, which, if I remember kotok himself described as the “capitulation low” point)…

    1,044 is interesting…61.8 retrace back to 666 puts you on some interesting support down around 808…

    1.618 (from 666 off of 1,044) takes you to 1,278 (which is where the waterfall started last September)…

  19. cvienne says:

    Hell…1044 is only 2% more from where we are…

    We could easily print it on Monday!

  20. Mannwich says:

    Seems as if the market needle is a bit stuck today. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ. Wake me during the final hour when we get the final, regularly scheduled pump into the close.

  21. leftback says:

    Watch the dollar… made a HIGHER low. The USO made a LOWER high. That’s technicals.
    Think about sentiment for the dollar. Now think about the fundamentals for commodities.

    3/3 tells me the turn is very very close now.
    Australia are on the RACK at the Oval. C’mon, England.

  22. Joe Retail says:

    It’s been a long time since I trusted “professionals” but I’d like to understand how they’re thinking: So why are the professionals fully invested? Do they think it’s real? Are they window dressing to prove they didn’t miss the rally? Other?

  23. call me ahab says:

    for all those betting on a $ resurgence-

    UUP- seems to move very slow- from March to now- let’s say about a $3 drop or so- so roughly %11

    if there is a rebound in the $- where will be the big upside come from- assuming you don’t to hold 6 months?

    seems to me there would have to be better trade – no?

    also- contrary indicator- everyone bashing the $ in the last few days-

    the stock market is a collosal show @ the moment- always seems that when the schmo’s think something is a lock- that’s when the smart money heads for the exits

  24. HCF says:

    @ Joe Retail:
    >Are they window dressing to prove they didn’t miss the rally? Other?

    The pros are trying to sell the rally to the individual investors before the car drives off the cliff =)

    HCF

  25. ben22 says:

    Joe Retail,

    it’s called career risk. there is your answer. When you charge people to follow your advice you can’t sit around and not do anything because you “know” the market “should” go down. Further, money managers of course are subject to herding. I think this is called: The Market.

    @LB,

    i was using 77.43 on the dollar index as the line that could not be broken or it derails the bullish case for the dollar temporarily. Not sure what you were using, but we didn’t go there, and have moved higher since. Re: sentiment, three prominent figures calling for major dollar problems, PIMPCO, Buffett, and Stiglitz, just this week. Add that to the Paulsen purchase of $3bil in the dollar on the long side and I agree that a turn in either direction is nearly here. As usual, I was several weeks early trying to make long dollar bets in various ways.

  26. franklin411 says:

    @Onlooker
    Thanks for the link. I looked into it, though, and there seems to be no provision for IRAs.

  27. ben22 says:

    ahab,

    if you were really a dollar bull, and trying to make a lot of money on the turn, then you shouldn’t be in UUP, lol. Plenty of other ways to play that, remember, it’s one big trade.

  28. Winston Munn says:

    I believe it was Barry who said that there are two parts to understand when investing: there is what is commonly believed to be true and then there is what is factual. (If wrongly stated, I apologize.)

    What is being touted by the FCM (Fawning Corporate Media) is that the recession will soon end and we are on our way to an orgy of nursery-hothouse-green-shoots buying opportunities.

    What is real is:
    Continued unemployment at 9.4% with no job creation in sight.
    Continued falling home prices.
    Continued increases in mortgage deliquencies.
    Continued tightening of consumer credit.
    Continued lowered of consumer spending.
    Massive public debt increases.
    30% of all home mortgages under water
    States in budget crises
    And so on and so on….

    The trick is determining when reality replaces illusion.

  29. DeDude says:

    Will those of you who think that market prices are correlated with fundamentals, please stand up and bend over – silly bears. Its all about fear and gread, and at your age you should know better ;-)

  30. JohnDoe says:

    Let us not forget that the single best year for stock returns was in 1933. A clear example of the disconnect between the stock market and the economy. I’ve had enough of these pundits using the recent stock market rally as a reason that the recession is over.

  31. Mannwich says:

    @DeDude: Fundamentals matter ONCE in a while and when they do, watch out below here.

  32. bdg123 says:

    The market always correlates with fundamentals in the long run.

    In the short term the market acts like a voting machine. In the long term a weighing machine. — Ben Graham, the greatest investor of the twentieth century.

    Bend over and take it silly bulls.

  33. Winston Munn says:

    edit: continued lowering of consumer spending.

    Sheesh. I have to stop drinking before noon.

  34. call me ahab says:

    b22-

    no doubt-

    i know you can short commodities, index funds- but if you were looking for a clean non-leveraged trade that goes up when the $ goes up- UUP just doesn’t seem to have much bang for the $

    and no- I am not a Forex player

  35. Pat G. says:

    @ leftback

    Not to belabor our conversation the other day re: deflation vs inflation. But I came across an article and thought of you immediately.

    http://247wallst.com/2009/08/19/buffett-economy-may-mend-but-deficit-will-wound/

    @ cvienne

    The USD is a broken currency. It and Treasuries stay afloat due ONLY to risk aversion. Both show their true colors when markets are rallying. The only question is, will be an orderly decline or not?

    @ f411

    My opinion, best to stay away from both.

  36. leftback says:

    ahab:

    A rebound in the $ would be self-sustaining, as a fall in commodity prices would drive more buying of $ and JPY, and the resulting unwinding of $ and yen carry trades would reverse the rallies that have taken place in risk assets.
    If you look at the increase in stocks and commodities for the drop in the dollar since the winter, you will see that the carry trade associated with the bear market rally is highly leveraged (~10), so reversal could be extremely steep.

    Think about the dynamics of Red October™ and imagine a repeat of the following movements in capital markets. High yield bonds to Treasuries, AUD and CAD to USD, EUR to JPY … and shares of C and GS to the bonus pool.

  37. Mannwich says:

    FXP flat today. Interesting…..

  38. Mannwich says:

    @f411: You might want to look at TIPS if you think inflation will be a problem long term. I have some of our “retirement” money there and they seem to be doing fine. Just a thought.

  39. cvienne says:

    @lefty

    Top Andrew Miller comment:

    “I don’t run, I stroll urgently”… :-)

  40. cvienne says:

    @ahab

    “if there is a rebound in the $- where will be the big upside come from- assuming you don’t to hold 6 months?

    seems to me there would have to be better trade – no?”

    Depends on the SIZE of your book…The dollar is a very liquid market, remember?

    It has the capacity to accept the flows stampeding out of a tighter equity market.

  41. cvienne says:

    @ben22

    (Vis-a-vis dollar)…

    I’ve already got the long dollar trade on…Losing $$ at the moment, but I’m not particularly frightened by it at the moment…I’m still accumulating…

    I’m surprised the ZSL hasn’t printed $7 yet again…If it does, I’m in there…

  42. bubba says:

    @dedude

    “Will those of you who think that market prices are correlated with fundamentals, please stand up and bend over – silly bears. Its all about fear and gread, and at your age you should know better”

    no no silly goose. we all know it’s dictated by the fibolaciously awesome divine ratio. :)

  43. Pat G. says:

    @ cvienne

    Just curious. I believe that you’ve mentioned here before that you hold silver and gold. So why would you buy ZSL?

  44. cvienne says:

    @Pat G

    I agree that the dollar is a broken currency…That is not my point…

    Instead, I believe that there is too much money piled in to commodities (across the board), and too many “short dollar” positions…A CROWDED TRADE…

    Similarly, the S&P was at 666 in March…everyone was bearish…but look at the rally that has ensued…Are the fundamentals any better? NO (possibly worse)…

    So my case for the dollar trade has to do with THAT more than anything…

    And FYI (in case you didn’t know)…My dollar position (that I’m working on IS, IN FACT, A HEDGE)…I have 10x the amount allocated to gold bullion…Yet the last time I made a gold bullion purchase was 2004)…

    So you have to understand things in perspective…

  45. call me ahab says:

    lb/cvienne-

    do you have any postions in TLT or other treasury funds?

  46. hopeImwrong says:

    cvienne – I would like to converse with you about farming. Could we correspond via email?

  47. cvienne says:

    @Pat G

    My (1:54) comments juxtaposed your (1:52)…

    Yes, I hold silver bullion as well…Again, this is a HEDGE for me…I own the bullion, I hedge the “paper” aspect of the trade…

    Frankly, I think when the famous “hyperinflation” comes into effect (possibly 18 – 36 months in the future), the GLD & SLV will no longer exist, or be regulated in some weird way…

    If & when “hyperinflation” occurs, the USG will find a way to confiscate those assets from people…

  48. cvienne says:

    @hope

    Sure hope…The big thing is, I’m not a farmer by trade…I’m making this stuff up as I go along…But I have established a lot of insights on how regular people can make good for themselves with a modest investment, and a modest parcel of land…

    You have to be as practical in farming as you do in anything else…

  49. ben22 says:

    Pat G Says:

    “Both show their true colors when markets are rallying”

    you’ve got it backwards I think, it’s the strength or weakness in the dollar determining stock/commodity moves, not the other way around.

    @DeDude and bubba,

    I’m curious, what were you guys doing back in March with your capital? What were you doing in 2008? I don’t ever remember either of you posting back then but could be wrong.

  50. call me ahab says:

    cvienne-

    inconceivable – the USG would never seize someone’s hard assets-

    er . . .well . . .except for gold . . . er . . .also that whole Indian thing where they sezied their land . . .but outside of that . . .hmm

  51. hopeImwrong says:

    @cvienne – that’s just the type of information I’m looking for. That’s my situation. Try cmagliozzi@yahoo.com and I will reply later this evening when I get home from work. This is a junk email alias. I’ll respond with the real one.

    Apologize to the group and BR for the off topic post.

  52. cvienne says:

    @ahab

    I’ve owned TLT call options twice this summer…

    I bought “out of the money” calls in June and caught a double…I closed that position and “re-upped” in July…I caught a TRIPLE on the recent rally…I sold half that position, and am letting the rest ride…

    I’m NOT suggesting buying options here…I probably got lucky…

  53. ben22 says:

    @CV

    re: ZSL,

    I had set up a trailing stop on that after rebuying and it’s been sold as a result. I’ll do the same trade over again and see if I can go three for three this time. Silver looks to be in a downtrend, and of course, this is another way to do the same as being long the dollar.

    @bubba,

    still steaming from the fibo thing? Get over it already.

  54. cvienne says:

    @hope

    OK hope…I’ll get back 2u…

  55. leftback says:

    @Pat G: We are actually in complete agreement about everything… except the timing and degree of the inflation.

    @ahab: LB currently holds 5 and 10-year Treasuries as well as some 5-yr IG corporates, on the view that yields will decline into the end of 2009. Most of this position was acquired with 10-year yields close to 4%. This view is shared by David Rosenberg, Gary Shilling and Mish. LB held similar positions from July 2007 until November 2008. From time to time, LB hedges against this position by buying TBT. No gold, but LB does buy some TIPS here and there. LB owns a few modest longs in drug companies but otherwise no stocks or high yield bonds.

  56. Thor says:

    HopeImWrong – your last name is arguably more Italian sounding than mine! ;-)

  57. ben22 says:

    @LB,

    If I’m not mistaken, Rosenberg is looking for those yields to drop to the 2′s right? As Schilling said in response to someone that asked him “but you aren’t getting any yield over the long term on govt bonds”:

    I’m not buying them for the yield.

  58. cvienne says:

    @ben22

    Re: FIBO

    I know right?

    I mean, I don’t have a room full of candles and red painted walls with fibonacci sequences drawn all over it or anything…It’s just a friggin guide (that has a high degree of accuracy)…

    I don’t sit here criticizing the way other people trade…I mean, you could toss blades of grass in the air for all I care…

  59. Pat G. says:

    @ cvienne

    Thanks for clearing that up for me, now I understand. I guess I just trade differently. When I think that the investment choices that I’ve made, from my perspective, are theoretically correct than I don’t see a need to hedge them or bet against them. If I discover that my theories were incorrect, then I just unload them. I guess you have more money than I do… :+} I don’t expect hyperinflation to occur. But I think inflation will start in earnest next year and begin to cause real problems in 2011. I’m not worried about the USG from a GLD or SLV position because I don’t hold any paper in either metal. Confiscation? Not going to happen.

  60. DeDude says:

    Mannwich; I know fundamentals matter once in a while and can be used to guide long-term (years scale) investment. But people try to use them for trading or market timing, and get crushed all the time. Its almost as silly as using fibo (is it dis the fibots Friday yet?).

  61. karen says:

    Isn’t this reason enough to make new highs for 2009? Jobless rate hits double digits in 14 states, D.C.

    2:05 PM ET 8/21/09
    SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — There were 14 states that had unemployment rates in double digits last month, with three including population heavyweight California setting all-time highs, the Labor Department reported Friday.

    The report, which gives a regional breakdown of the national employment data released earlier this month, again put Michigan in the lead with the highest jobless rate — 15%.

    The state, reeling from auto industry’s the shutdowns, registered a gain of 38,100 nonfarm payrolls since June but has lost 280,800 in the past year.

    Rhode Island followed with a jobless rate of 12.7%. Nevada, at 12.5%, had the third-worst rate.

    The District of Columbia also had a double-digit rate, of 10.6%.

    Jobless rates in California, at 11.9%, as well as Nevada and Rhode Island set highs for the state surveys, which go back to 1976. Georgia’s rate of 10.3% was also a record high.

  62. bubba says:

    @ben22

    steaming? huh??? i let you off easy last time my friend. and if you didn’t realized that, you’re a bigger dunce that i’d thought. no offense here man, you sound like a bright knowledgeable guy and all, but you need to think a little more and not swallow perceived “facts” so easily. look, i’m just having fun with all you TA guys…it just amuses me that you take fibonacci #s so seriously. i think he must be rolling in his graves. it’s a bummer for him he didn’t live in this century, he’d be making a killing.

  63. Clem Stone says:

    I’m no Elliott Wave enthusiast (is Prechter still looking for Dow 41?), but don’t i see the start of a 3rd of the 3rd wave up this week from the March low?

  64. ben22 says:

    @CV,

    I agree, that was almost a month ago now, put the damn thing to rest.

    @DeDude

    Who do you know that uses fundamentals for day or swing trades? Did you used to trade and know people that did this, I thought you said you worked in healthcare? And as for the dissing of fibo use in determining trades, what do you use that works better? I’m always looking for new ideas.

  65. Pat G. says:

    @ ben22

    Watch the market. When equities are cratering, news is bad, people are risk averse and moving into the USD. The tail is not wagging the dog.

    @ leftback

    Great! Then you agree with the comparison to the ’70s which was in the article and not to the ’30s?

  66. call me ahab says:

    that’s good news Karen- makes the companies more efficient to sell to those that do have jobs:-)

  67. cvienne says:

    @Pat G

    I’m glad you understand…

    Ironically, I think YOU, lefty, and myself basically have the same ideas…

    With regards to the precious metals…Again, I own the bullion and I don’t trade it because I believe there will be, perhaps, a 20 or so year cyclicality with respect to the value store…

    So the dollar trade is just a PAPER TRADE…and it represents far less than the total net worth of bullion held…

    In the short term (short term – meaning – 6 months)…I can’t see much more than a 10-15% correction in gold prices…But I’m hoping for about 20% upside to the dollar…

    We’ll see…It really won’t hurt me either way…

    BTW…I’d really, actually, like to buy some more gold…But it would have to get down to $840 for me to start looking seriously into that…

  68. call me ahab says:

    cvienne/lb-

    thx for the feedbk

  69. ben22 says:

    is Prechter still looking for Dow 41?

    response:

    To my knowledge he never was looking for Dow 41. He’s called for the dow below 1,000 in nominal terms between now and 2016. On his current most probably count we are in Primary Wave 2 and he has not called and end to it.

  70. Mannwich says:

    @karen: Just means more time to day trade worthless financial paper to one another! We’re all rich! Wheeeee!!

  71. ben22 says:

    Pat G:

    You said:

    When equities are cratering, news is bad, people are risk averse and moving into the USD

    Pat, have you looked at a chart of the dollar over the last year? You’ve got this wrong. And, the news doesn’t move markets. jmo. We’ll be able to put this debate to rest in 6 months. Sadly, that seems to be a lifetime to most of the readers here.

  72. hopeImwrong says:

    @ thor – It is Italian, from my Mother’s side.

  73. call me ahab says:

    Bernanke-

    “One year ago “there was little to suggest that market participants saw the financial situation as about to take a sharp turn for the worse,” Ben Bernanke declared Friday in a speech at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole confab.”

    hahahahahahaha- colossal chumps and dumbasses

  74. Mannwich says:

    @ahab: Wow, just wow. Who exactly is he referring to by “market participants?” What a farce.

  75. Pat G. says:

    @ karen

    Absolutely! As long as corporations continue to beat lowered expectations through cost cutting, the markets will continue to rally. That’s another dynamic of the disconnect between Wall St and Main St. Corporations, the USG and the MSM have made it clear with their actions or inactions that they could care less about the unemployment rate. Their rationale; there are still more people working than aren’t.

  76. ben22 says:

    @bubba,

    you assume much about me, I only use fibo as guidelines, have you ever even once seen me mention them here in reference to a trade strategy, the answer is NO, because I never have I was commenting on what someone else said about them. just the other day someone talked about our failed attempt at breaking a fibo resistance line and that it meant we were going down and I did not agree.

    further I’m not a “TA guy” I use software that combines TA with fundamental analysis, much like what Fusion uses. it’s funny that from my posts, which disclose very little about what I’m actually doing, you were able to determine that I’m both a dunce but sound bright.

    take care

  77. Joe Retail says:

    @ahab: If I can try to parse that one, he’s not saying that there were no signs of coming problems, just that “market participants” weren’t paying attention to them.

  78. cvienne says:

    @ben22

    Ben…I’m going to say this…

    …and this goes out with ZERO disrespect to either DeDude or bubba (who don’t buy into the notion of FIBO’s, which is their right to do)…

    So to keep things civilized…personally, if I make a reference to a FIBO to ben (or Andy), or whoever, it’s simply cvienne conversing with another who basically speaks the same language…THAT’S IT…I’m not a preacher trying to convert souls…

    If anyone wants to make any fun out of it at my expense, that’s perfectly fine, but I’ll leave it stand at that…

    On that subject…ben…if you remember, yesterday I talked about the 23.18 level on the UUP…We actually hit 23.13, then rebounded to 23.30…So now…23.19 is FIBO support on todays move…Did you notice that?

    lefty…you too?

    Hell, who knows…maybe the whole thing breaks down…But I’m still not really worried about the position…

  79. leftback says:

    Pat G: This is NOT the 70s, or we would have a much easier set of trades ahead of us (Long Volcker, short TLT).

    We will get there I suppose but there is all kinds of other nonsense that has to happen first. GS has to make profits by selling and SHORTING all the crap they have been pumping to Johnny Retail, because that’s how they make bank.

    NOT the 30s, either, but a close facsimile of Japan, that’s where the currency decline comes in, but not just NOW. Agree completely with CV above and ben, we have not seen the last “flight-to-safety” trade to govies. Once you see the carry trade unwind get rolling you will be surprised how persistent it will be, just like last year.

    As BR once said it’s not the CRASH that cost people money in the 30s or Japan, it was the RALLIES. BTW, a word to those who point out bullishness by insititutional investors: they are using OPM.

  80. Joe Retail says:

    Of course neither were the economists or the politicians …

  81. call me ahab says:

    pat g Says-

    “there are still more people working than aren’t.”

    so . . . the glass is more than half full-

    man I feel better- especially knowing that during the GD at its worst 65% of the populace was still working-

    i guess those were much better times than people realize

  82. Thor says:

    Ben – I think bubba is just trying to yank your chain ;-)

  83. Onlooker from Troy says:

    Joe

    Right, and it’s that faith that they have in the market’s wisdom that continues to lead them astray. Now they’re pointing to the market’s “strength” as a sign that the economy is improving despite all that underlying imbalances and weaknesses therein. These “esteemed economists” lose more credibility by the day.

  84. cvienne says:

    @Manny

    “market participants” (2008 version) = lazy fund managers enjoying their August in the Hamptons…& btw, I’m guessing the same lazy fund managers are enjoying the August of ’09 in the Hamptons…Let’s see how they enjoy September & October…

    Note: this year it’s even easier because Llloyd & Jamie’s computers are doing all the work…

  85. NMR says:

    Life goes on at pessimism central. Is the market a bit oversold? maybe? but it’s very consistent around the world. Are we likely to see a leg down before the end of September? Probably? Will it be back at March bottoms? No way. The trend is upwards.

  86. Pat G. says:

    @ cvienne

    If I’m in camp with you and lefty, that’s not bad company. I’ll admit to not having the patience or the sophistication with respect to trading as you two do. But that’s okay…

    ben22

    It’s not a lifetime to me but I still think risk aversion or lack thereof moves the USD one way or the other.

  87. call me ahab says:

    re OPM-

    someone said something here the other day- can’t remeber who- about the C trader that was to make $100 million- and he said that he deserved it because he took all the risk-

    my response was-

    what risk? he had everything to gain and nothing to lose- except for maybe his job if he fucked it up too bad- but why not take the high risk bets?- only lines your pocket if you bet right- if you bet wrong- so what- you are personally out ZERO

  88. Mannwich says:

    @ahab: I wish I could take all that “risk” with OPM. What stress those people must be under. Don’t know how they deal with that.

  89. Mortimus says:

    @ Ahab
    Absolutely.

    That’s why when those bonuses start getting dished out during “Hand-Me-Down Christmas” you can bet that will initiate the “Pitchfork Signal” out into the Gotham sky.

  90. call me ahab says:

    no shit mannwich-

    flame out and lose it all or rock everyone’s world with ungodly returns- two likely outcomes- but many of these “geniuses”- never seem to be able to repeat their past success- so much of it is just sheer luck

  91. ben22 says:

    Guys, I don’t nec. disagree with the whole, OPM argument but dont’ think for a second that for all mm’s there isn’t an extremely high level of stress. There is.

  92. cvienne says:

    @Pat G

    For the record…I TALK about trading more than I actually pull the trigger…

    I’ve been wasting a lot of electrons chattering up the dollar recently (because I feel it is at, or near, a 6 month or so turning point)…After the turn is confirmed, I probably won’t talk about it until, say, next March…

    As for the SPX…I follow the technicals on that al lot, but I don’t trade it much…I’m starting to put a few bones on the “short side” here…I did at 1008, 1018, and even added a little at 1003…I had been thinking about setting stops (which I’d originally had at 1014, then moved down to 1008), but when the moment of truth arrived, I pulled off the stops, and am now riding a losing position…It’s not a significant enough position to cause pain, so I’m actually in the CURIOUS position of “rooting against” my own positions…

    As for “other trades”…Once a month or so, I’ll jump on something that is clearly getting out of whack…(like last week with Macy’s, where I got in & got out)…

    I’m dying to get in and buy some PUTS on COF…I’m hoping to see a move to $38-$40…I’ve had my eye on that for 2 months now…

  93. Pat G. says:

    @ leftback

    Okay not now but we’ll get there. Please make sure to let me know. Works for me.

    @ ben22

    Perhaps I’m wrong about risk aversion moving the dollar but that’s okay too. I have no positions in it, long or short. I just see that when it is declining, PMs and the currency that I’m holding are rising. But in the short or long run it is going lower, much lower.

  94. cvienne says:

    @ben22

    what was it?

    there are old traders, & there are bold traders, but there are no old & bold traders…

  95. call me ahab says:

    b22-

    whoever said gambling wasn’t stressful- one of the most stressful things a person can do- even if it is not your money- you want to win-

    but does not negate the fact that there is zero personal financial risk

  96. Mannwich says:

    @ben22: I don’t disagree with you, but I’d MUCH rather be trading OPM than my own money. Believe me.

  97. Mannwich says:

    @ben22: To add to that – I have much respect for people like you who do it the right way and seem to hold the clients’ best interests at heart, but Hall works for a firm that’s been bailed out by We The Sheeple so that he can speculated on commodities and theoretically drive up real world prices for those same Sheeple who helped keep he and his firm going? I’m sorry, but that’s beyond aburd or even obsence. The problem is the entire system that you work in is crooked and has been marred by other people who give it a bad name. It’s why I won’t allow anyone else to manage our money probably ever.

  98. Cohen says:

    @Onlooker

    Good exmaple of that was Leading Indicators from yesterday. More of the indicators were positive than negative, so the reading was positive but the main positive was increase in stock prices (this is a leading indicator?) and the biggest drag was consumer expectations.

  99. cvienne says:

    I bought a mega-millions lottery ticket today for a buck…The service station cashier where I was filling up for gas conned me into it…The jackpot, I think, is $270m…

    I don’t think I’ve bought a lottery ticket since the 1980′s…I’m going to give the ticket to my mom, but if she wins, she’d better buy me a new tractor, (& maybe a new boat)…

  100. call me ahab says:

    from Diane Swonk-

    “The really disturbing part,” Swonk says, is “CEOs are still denying the degree to which they played a role in this situation and how their own actions compounded the crisis.”

    Plus “we’re really not seeing the holding of accountability,” she says, suggesting we need a modern version of the Pecora Commission, which Congress gave subpoena powers to investigate the cause of the 1929 crash and featured public examinations of some of the biggest financiers of the age.”

    why has this not happened?