Seasonality of Home Prices

By Peter Boockvar - August 25th, 2009, 10:54AM

To highlight the seasonality of housing and its impact on pricing where the spring is the busiest of the year, the S&P/Case Shiller Index, which does not seasonally adjust its m/o/m pricing, has shown its best performance in Q2 in every year except one going back to ’01. ’09 is of course not complete but Q2 saw a gain of 1.3% after a drop of 7% in Q1. On the downside in ’07 and ’08, Q2 saw the smallest decline and in the boom years in ’04, ’05 and ’06, Q2 saw the biggest rise. In ’03, Q3 price gains barely exceeded the Q2 rise while in ’01 and ’02, Q2 had the best price increases. The price data seen is welcome relief but it’s that time of the year and the $8000 tax credit and slowing foreclosure rate had its impact. Add to this the still punk Present Situations component in Confidence and it helps to explain again, the lack of belief in the sustainability of recovery that the bond market has relative to stocks.

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Category: MacroNotes.

Comments

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

4 Responses to “Seasonality of Home Prices”

Cohen Says:
August 25th, 2009 at 2:24 pm
Thanks for pointing that out. It defenitely adds a lot of context to the data and bears watching going forward.
Novemberrain Says:
August 25th, 2009 at 6:22 pm
Americans buy houses mostly in Summer. So, America has always seen uptick in these months.
I think housing market has still to fall because America is loosing on Jobs and interest rates have gone higher and the Administration is doing nothing to aid the ailing housing market. I would say that we should wait and watch after 2-3 months, home prices would further plummet.

Read More: http://www.housingnewslive.com/articles/reasons-housing-market-going-down.php
sbailey Says:
August 25th, 2009 at 8:23 pm
Actually, there is a seasonally-adjusted data set, right on the download page. Calculated Risk believes that their seasonal adjustment factors might be off this year, however, and expects a sharper downturn later on this fall.
TheTradingReport » Blog Archive » SoCal Real Estate Keeps Rising Says:
September 17th, 2009 at 3:06 am
[...] this keeps up much longer, the seasonality explanation is going to stop sounding so convincing. As it is, some buyers are done worrying about another leg [...]