Temporary Help Is Less Bad
By Barry Ritholtz - August 10th, 2009, 1:15PM
Students of economic and employment data know that many of the components of the Employment situation are leading economic indicators.
I like to look specifically at Temp Help for some insight as to the demand for lLabor and Employer confidence.
My go to guy for all things Temp Help is Bruce Steinberg. His monthly analysis on Temp Hiring makes for a sober and clear eyed assessment follwoing the NFP release.
You can see both year-over-year and monthly data charted below. As you might imagine, Y-Y is down substantially — about 26%. The monthly data, while volatile, seems to be moderating, falling about half a percent (0.56%).
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click for larger chart
chart courtesy of Bruce Steinberg
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August 10th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
Love to see a chart with more history.
August 10th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
doesn’t pretty much every single 1 year chart look like this right now? the markets have had a huge rally and that has led to credit expansion again. If credit were to begin to contract in a serious way moving forward then these charts will all start to look the same in a different way… again. I’d feel better about these sort of things if I knew it was leading to a real economy. If we somehow re-inflate, what will eventually happen to stocks should make October 07 – March 09 period look like a vacation. I’d like to think it wouldn’t be so bad, and we’d be lucky like Japan and bump along for a long time slowly grinding down, there are too many dollar denominated debts in the world for that scenario imo.
August 10th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
Green shooty flatliney potholes and bumps in the road.
“Humps for 400 yards” – as the signs say in England.
August 10th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
I suggest people head over to watch summers in the video’s section. Wonder what the discussion will be if unemployment continues to climb into 2010, if GDP can’t print a nice large positive, etc. He deflected every single thing and took 0 blame. He’s a complete asshole but that of course has been said before.
August 10th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
I might also state my fear of an administration that is using backward looking data for policy action.
“We didn’t know how bad it was,…. that’s what the revisions told us.”
For real?
August 10th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
Yeaaaaaaah, IT’S ALL GOOD*
*Less bad is the new good.
August 10th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
“I suggest people head over to watch summers in the video’s section.”
ben, I don’t think my stomach could take it. I can’t watch/listen to these fools anymore. It just gets my blood pressure up and aggravates me to no end. Just ask my wife! :)
August 10th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
Troy,
I hear you man, but still, these are the people in charge, so I don’t know that one can afford to just ignore them. Just have a stiff drink while you watch.
August 10th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
This “less bad” philosophy is starting to permeate through all our news now. I just read an article titled: “Western airstrikes kill (fewer) Afghan civilians”. (my emphasis) Does that make the Afghan people feel better about their fate?
August 10th, 2009 at 8:12 pm
@Pat G
No Pat…that’s just the “lefty media” spin on things…
You see, Afghanistan is Obamas War…So whatever happens, it’ll be OK, we kill more bad guys, civilian deaths won’t be so bad…Costs will be justified, etc. etc.
Obama could pull a total Michael Vick on us and come out smelling like roses because apparently the magnetic properties of a compass cease to function when they are observed whilst 2 feet up a persons sphincter canal…
August 10th, 2009 at 9:37 pm
Is it me or is it the graph?
The blue (Monthly) bars don’t appear to be consistent with the numbers?
August 10th, 2009 at 9:48 pm
I think it should be not MOM but Monthe on same Month prior year?
August 10th, 2009 at 9:48 pm
I think it should be not MOM but Month on same Month prior year?
August 11th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
How can Obama get away with fighting in Afghanistan, we all know Ben Laden is in Iraq. Or is it Iran.