Non Farm Payrolls gets released this morning. Some outlets have pointed out an expected”beat” by BLS.

As we have long advocated, investors should be more concerned with the details than the headline, and watch for signs of a change in trend.A plus or minus 100k from the consensus is all but statistically irrelevant.

Be aware of the revisions, and Birth/death adjustment: Watch to see how much this impacts the overall number.

Look at these three leading indicators within the release:

1) Hours worked: Are employers still cutting back hours? That is a sign they lack confidence going forward.

2) Wages and income: Are salaries still falling? It reveals how much demand there is for labor.

3) Temp help:  Are employers starting to hire temporary workers?

These will provide some insight into the state of the Labor market.

~~~

I will be sitting in a canoe when these numbers come out. Use comments to update the release . . .

Category: Employment

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

321 Responses to “Trend, Not a Single Data Point”

  1. Andy T says:

    exactly. Your position you should match your view.

  2. franklin411 says:

    @Daffy
    I don’t do technicals, tops/bottoms etc…My time frame is 40 years. All I’ve done recently is rearrange a few things (traded out of defensives to add to my cyclicals), but that was before the big ramp up.

  3. AmenRa says:

    @cvienne

    Not a big sell off this time after hitting 1015 on the S&P.

  4. Paul Jones says:

    Every chartist in a nutshell:

    The last few (insert time period here) of trading represents a (insert cutesy nick name for a pattern here): from here the market will go up… or down.

  5. AmenRa says:

    I forgot to add Arrgghhh!!!

  6. AmenRa says:

    @Paul Jones

    Every fundamental analyst does the same thing. They just use a different set of numbers.

  7. Thor says:

    I know I’ll hate myself for this in the morning but – Franklin – yes, I would very much like to hear your take on Vilgrad’s post. This isn’t a “the government is lying and Obama is the devil’s henchman” opening so please try not to take it down that route. +10 points for every post you make from here on out without saying “The President”.

  8. cvienne says:

    @AmenRa

    Well that MAY mean that an effort will be made to draw some zigzaggy lines on or near this level…Even for a few days…

    One thing that I’ve noticed is that on the move since 870, there hasn’t been much of an attempt to firmly establish any floors…

    All the technical numbers were pretty easily taken out…The most decisive one (to my recollection), was the ease in which the 233ema was taken out…It was 960 on the day that happened, and now it’s likely to be higher (I haven’t checked)…

    I notice that for a week the market paused in the 975 area…Which means, if the 233ema gets into that zone, it may serve as the best BACKTEST support line…

    Just trying to think into the future here…

  9. cvienne says:

    @Thor

    Thanks for the assist on that…(re: Vligrad)

    Note: I’m not even trying to take a side here (and I’m sure you’re not either)…It just seemed to me that Vilgrad’s link painted a very honest look at things with no spin…

  10. rdhall3637 says:

    Let’s step back and talk a little bit about the idea of “predictions”. All we hear all day long on across all media outlets are predictions about where the economy, job losses, and the market are headed. Let’s dig deeper by stepping back.

    Often we see economists and analysts come on that “correctly” predicted the recession, market collapse, etc. Because of their past success, they are deemed to be more insightful and we should listen to their future predictions. Be careful, please! Why?

    If I pick a number between 1-10 and ask 100 people to guess that number, some people will get it right. Now, I do the same thing again. Is there any reason whatsoever to think that the ones that guessed correctly the first time have some sort of special ability or insight? Of course not. SOMEONE was going to predict the number, it was inevitable. The same exactly thinking goes into the forecasting of future economic activity. How do we know this?

    The market reacts instantly to any information it “thinks” it has about the future. Any other ‘predictions’ are just noise, and the market does not react unless it seems to have some real credibility. For example, October 07 was the S&P high. The market had no idea what would transpire over the next 2 years.. NONE! Anyone at that time who was predicting the crash was no more worthy of listening to then someone who was predicting another 1,000 points on the S&P upward. One of them was going to be correct, but not because they had insight. It was because they got lucky, just like the number game.

    The only tool that give us any insight, all be it very little, is technical analysis. But all it does is maybe increase the percentages slightly in our favor. For example in the number game, if I play 1,000 times and record all the numbers, i might see a pattern in how a human being choses the numbers. If I see that 7 is the number most often chosen, but only by a fractional amount, does it mean 7 is the next number? No. All it does is give me a slight slight advantage over random guessing. And in the end, that’s all we have to help us predict the future.

    So, the bottom line is, you might as well follow your own gut instinct on the future. Your guess is as good as anyones, even world class economists (because they often completely disagree with each other)!

  11. dead hobo says:

    franklin411 Says:
    August 7th, 2009 at 12:59 pm

    My time frame is 40 years.

    reply:
    —————
    This explains a lot. In 40 years, most of the people here will have died of natural causes. I don’t plan on leaving soon, but if I do get to 40+ from now, I’ll be too far gone to care about anything except being warm and not wet.

    Anything can green shoot and flourish in that length of time.

    What kind of analysis do you have for a more immediate time frame of 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, or the like?

  12. cvienne says:

    Re: 233ema…

    I just checked…It’s 963 as we speak (and inching higher)…

    Incidentally…the 233 simple moving average is 907 (and STILL on a downward slope)…That caught my attention…

  13. Daffyorbugs says:

    Bless you, Franklin.

  14. Paul S says:

    That man at “theburningplatform” is an idiot, and a right wing propogandist idiot at that (but really are there any others?) .

    No. 1, he starts off by saying that this news now means we can “trust Obama on Healthcare”, of course, this being a mocking reference to Obama fans. (It also makes me think he must be attending the town halls in his spare time to disrupt them.) But ignoring all the subjective crap that follows, he closes his screed with the totally fallacious claim that “The employment to population ratio at 59.4% is the lowest in the history of our country”. Anyone who reads CR knows this is simply not true, and cannot be true, unless all women suddenly left the workforce. If the idiot would go over to CR and read the article on this very subject, he would fix his statement to read that it is at the lowest level since the mid 80′s. When Reagan was president I might add.

    They really ought to establish intelligence and honesty standards for blogging, or posting anything on the interent for that matter. But first of course we must get this economy fixed.

  15. cvienne says:

    @rdhall3637

    “Let’s dig deeper by stepping back.”

    I’ve been digging fenceposts lately on my property…I’ve got to jump on the shovel to dig deeper…I only step back to wipe the sweat off my forehead and shoo away the gnats :-)

  16. Thor says:

    Cvienne – I guess what I’m trying to bang into Franklin’s head is that it’s not that we’re all disappointed in the jobs numbers, we’re just trying to get to the bottom of the spin. It’s clear that job losses are improving, but as an informed citizen, I would like to know exactly HOW the numbers are improving. Are more jobs being created? Are the B/D numbers being increased? Are Boomers retiring early? Are we shifting more folks to one income households? Etc etc. My opinion of Franklin so far, based on his postings, it that he doesn’t seem to question the party line at all. I don’t see this as any different than the kind of mentality the birthers are guilty of. Coming from a person who claims to be an educator it’s horrifying.

  17. Andy T says:

    Look guys….this 1014 # was generated from a 900+/58% decline that lasted 18 months, so #s generated on such a huge time line are not really meant for 5 min. chart trading. On that time frame, this is certainly a daily/weekly close type number meant for trading longer than a nanosecond….If you’re getting short into this number based on the long range fibo # you need to be prepared to hold on for several weeks and be prepared for minor violations of the number. Some technicians think a minor violation is 2-3%….so trade accordingly….FWIW, when trading futures I don’t like to lose more than 1% of capital on any single trading idea, and if I lose more than 5% of trading capital in a week, I shut it all down for a few weeks….Good luck.

  18. cvienne says:

    @Paul S

    Yeah…who are we [pee-on bloggers] to challenge ANYTHING the mighty Administration has to say…I’m sure all the numbers they produce are crystal pure and blue…

    We should be shot, tarred & feathered, and dragged through the streets!

  19. Andy T says:

    To add on to that previous note…If you want to use a bigger fibo# to base a trade on but don’t have much tolerance for pain, or you’re a day trader, it’s best to just let the market clearly reverse from the “zone” you’re watching…then play the smaller retracements from there…you can create much better/tighter stops this way….

  20. dead hobo says:

    RE the market: Wish I hadn’t gotten out but I can’t read the future. All I know is this rally is based on cash and not substance. At some point it will correct. I’m playing with real money and not a hobby account, and I’m too busy with other things to screw around with a hobby account right now. If GS wants a crack at my stash, they’ll have to crash the market a dozen or two percent.

  21. Paul S says:

    Oh c’mon. Say anything you like- just back it up with the facts and some truth.
    I prefer to live in the reality based world.

  22. cvienne says:

    @Thor

    You, my friend, have the right idea…

    The number today was simply a number (one which will eventually get revised)…It does not suggest any trend, and even if it did, it is difficult to extrapolate that trend in the broader spectrum…

    Let me put it to you another way…

    If a data point came out today and said the YEAR OVER YEAR numbers with respect to global warming showed “slight slowing” over the past 3 monthly readings, do you think all the climatologists would all collectively breathe a sigh of relief and suggest that a new era had begun…

    …of course not!

    Moral of the story…Everyone simply mines the data they want to support their argument…

  23. Thor says:

    Paul – do you have anything to add other than “the guy is an idiot? Did you look at the charts that were provided? They’re directly from the government. It’s obvious the guy is mostly a nut-job, can you not see past the partisan blathering to look at the data he is referencing? Or are you, like him, on the fringe of the political spectrum, unable to see anything beyond your own narrow ideology?

  24. jc says:

    Are Boomers retiring early?

    I know BBs who have delayed their retirments because of the drecession but none who have accelerated it. A couple of these numbers are “soft” and subject to gentle massage – to achieve a greater good of course!

  25. Thor says:

    Paul – sorry, let me try to be a little more clear. If you start your post off with name calling, you are immediately bringing yourself down to the same level of the person you are calling an idiot. I would imagine from your usual posts that you are a fairly intelligent guy, I would assume this might translate into a basic understanding of interpersonal communication – use it, trust me, people will take what you have to say much more seriously.

  26. cvienne says:

    @Paul S

    I don’t want to get dragged into an Obama argument…Personally, I’m indifferent to the man…

    I’m willing to give someone a chance, until they prove their mettle is insufficient…

    But I do recall, back in January of this year, a rush to get a stimulus package through Congress with the notion attached to it that it would create 3.5 – 4 million jobs…

    That’s the REALITY BASED WORLD that I’m living in at present…

  27. karen says:

    I would be enjoying this rally more if my shippers were participating.. so now, in addition to the jobless recovery, we’ve got a recoveryless rally… makes perfect sense : )

  28. AmenRa says:

    OK, so what happens Monday after the Nikkei, Hang Seng, Csi, Ftse, Asx, Kospi all play catch up?

  29. Thor says:

    JC – RE: boomers – maybe “retiring” isn’t the right term I should be using. Perhaps people who are nearing retirement have also been laid off and because of the lack of new jobs they are deciding that it’s best to just leave the workforce and start to dip into their retirement savings and social security (if they’re old enough to collect it) as opposed to continuing to look for a new job. I know that if I were in my mid to late fifties and lost my job I would be very discouraged about finding a new one. . . .

  30. cvienne says:

    Something tells me that somewhere around here…

    …where it feels INCREDIBLY STUPID to short stocks…

    Is about the time you need to be shorting stocks…

  31. jc says:

    So what prompts the inaccuracy? Well, according to Biderman it’s down to five major shortcomings in the way the BLS compiles its statistics:

    1. Changes in employment in the service sector are not fully captured.
    2. Heavy seasonal adjustments often obscure trends in employment.
    3. Employment growth at smaller companies and growth in self-employment are not fully captured.
    4. The company “birth/death” adjustments are nothing more than educated guesses.
    5. Only 60% of the survey for the latest month is complete.

    Here follows a comparison between Trimtab’s numbers, BLS prelims and the final revised figures a year later, demonstrating quite clearly the significant margin of error that exists:

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/08/07/65976/the-problem-with-non-farm-payroll-numbers/

  32. cvienne says:

    @Amen

    The SPX is only up 2% so far…

    What a candy-ass…It’s gotta be up 3% before the great LB even bothers to grace us with a comment!

  33. karen says:

    i think the spx is done now… 1020.50 would be total exhaustion today.

  34. manhattanguy says:

    Speaking of LB, is he still vacationing?

  35. cvienne says:

    @manhattanguy

    last I heard…yes

  36. Thor says:

    Karen – are you calling a top my dear? Or just for today? :-)

  37. AmenRa says:

    @cvienne

    It’s getting close to the CYA time. I will note that the 233ema on the weekly SPX is still far off (at 1167). That’s the one that will convince me this time it’s different.

  38. karen says:

    Thor, who’s foto are you using, btw?

  39. Thor says:

    JC – great link! Does anyone know if there is a source we could all look at that compares the BLS numbers (both estimated and final revisions) to TrimTab and ADP over time? I would be very curious to see who ended up having the best track record.

  40. cvienne says:

    @Amen

    I don’t have enough “cracklins” on the fire to really have to worry…

    I’d said earlier…My “short” credo has shifted from SHORT TRADES/COVER QUICK…to…INCH IN SLOWLY on the MEGA MONTH short side…

    So ironically, the more I LOSE in the next few days or weeks…the happier I’ll be…

  41. jc says:

    Thor, You mean they don’t want to go thru months of demeaning interviews to get a short term job they really don’t want anyway?

    Some of this stuff is determined by phone surveys I believe,easy to ask a leading question or two and check off “not actively seeking work” hehe.

    Biederman’s Trimtabs are much more accurate than BLS anyway. There must be a lot of pressure on BLS to make their estimates “more accurate” (ie better) in times like these, the gummint is here to hep us

  42. Thor says:

    Karen – That’s me!

  43. ndmaster says:

    Has anyone noticed the almost direct inverse correlation between the dollar and SPX? I thin Rosie mentioned this a week or so ago. If you look at the dollar’s move, it pretty accurately predicts the SPX’s move the next day. Anyone?

  44. cvienne says:

    @karen

    Speaking of foto’s (BTW – I LOVE how you spelled that, VERY ITALIAN)…

    When are you going to grace us with one?

    I was thinking about either using my “Fish or Cut Bait” banner…OR…an new logo I’m contemplating (in honor of Jim Rogers)…FARM NAKED!

  45. Andy T says:

    AmenRa: I sent out a chart several days ago in re: the 89 week MA…it’s an interesting longer term MA…on a closing basis, I don’t see any false signals with that particular average. I don’t really like MAs, but that one is interesting….it’s 1110 right now and trending lower.

    This performance today in light of the dollar is amazing….

    Interesting that the Nasdaq, the previous leader, the en vogue index, where the sexy money was sleeping, is not setting new highs yet….

  46. Onlooker from Troy says:

    Trying to explain away the drop in the work force as being attributable to the demographics of BB retirements, during this time in which we KNOW that many are actually going back to work or delaying retirement due to fiscal pain at home, is truly a stretch. I would entertain the notion if accompanied by an objective study of the facts that backed it up. But I have to be greatly skeptical given the circumstances at hand.

    Anybody willing to grab onto that explanation without questioning the credibility of said argument is just shaping the story to match their political bent, or shaping the story to match their own hopes and to assuage their fears. And hope is not a good investing strategy.

  47. cvienne says:

    @ndmaster

    Good point!

    I think you ought to got to MarkMcHugh to get an answer on that one…

    He’d said he was going to retire for awhile from TBP…But maybe he would be willing to do a Brett Favre on that subject…

  48. Onlooker from Troy says:

    Hey, CROX is up 33%! A sure sign of the recovery. They only lost about $30M

  49. cvienne says:

    @OT

    Yeah, it’s because the government started a “cash for CLUNK-CROX-ers” program…

    They’ll pay you $45 dollars for your old pair of Crox to buy a new more energy efficient model…

  50. Thor says:

    Troy – not true at all – or have you been missing all the early retirement buy-outs many companies, states and cities have been offering their employees? And yes, you can use demographics because those born in 1946 and 1947 are now entering retirement years this was a massive cohort of children born after the war. To assume that a huge number of this cohort is having to delay retirement or go back to work because of anecdotal evidence in the MSM media is a stretch. How do you “KNOW” what the percentage of the early boomer generation is having to go back to work? I have read stories that this is occurring but unless we can come up with an actual number or percentage the topic is still open for debate.

  51. AmenRa says:

    Hold up. Did I just hear that there will be a “cash for refrigerator” program?

  52. AmenRa says:

    I can’t watch CNBC today. I don’t think I could take it.

  53. call me ahab says:

    been in meetings all morning- bit of a rally going on- sho’ am glad I sold my SKF a while back at 42ish- that has taken a beating-

    did BT post a picture of himself being paddled by the natives- while sippin’ his morning joe- with the mist coming off the river- very Mosquito Coast

  54. karen says:

    Cash for refrigerator could be a good thing.. i’m all for energy efficiency and saving the ozone.. should be a free trade in if the beast is old enough..

  55. Thor says:

    rather – to assume that the number of boomers being forced to stay in or go back to work is greater than the number of boomers who have been offered early retirement is a stretch – we can easily find many of the early retirement numbers by their announcement by companies and municipalities. We do not know of the real number of boomers having to stay in the work force because of finances, all we have are stories in the news that this is happening, no hard numbers.

  56. call me ahab says:

    correction- did “BR post a picture”

  57. cvienne says:

    @Thor

    When confronting a subject like that I think one needs to rely less on “statistics”, and rely more on ones notion of human preponderence…

    IOW

    A person nearing retirement age in an environment where they were being paid a good salary, and were doing well with investments might forestall retirement…(Much the same aptitude of a professional athlete who is late into his productive years, but decides to sign a 2 year contract to basically hold a clipboard – or an EX actor, doing infomercials)…

    In an environment where there is LITTLE HOPE…As reflected by the one we find ourselves in now…Perhaps the decision might just be made to WIND DOWN a little…take it easy…

    The truth lies in the aggregate of that preponderance…

  58. Vilgrad says:

    Paul S

    You seem to know me so well. Does the S stand for SHITHEAD? I guess anyone who uses facts directly from the BLS website must be classified as a right wing idiot. What do you do in your spare time, fuck a blow up Obama doll? You clearly show your colors with your inane response. You are a left wing elitist demigod who will defend anything his savior Obama says.

    That man at “theburningplatform” is an idiot, and a right wing propogandist idiot at that (but really are there any others?) .

    No. 1, he starts off by saying that this news now means we can “trust Obama on Healthcare”, of course, this being a mocking reference to Obama fans. (It also makes me think he must be attending the town halls in his spare time to disrupt them.) But ignoring all the subjective crap that follows, he closes his screed with the totally fallacious claim that “The employment to population ratio at 59.4% is the lowest in the history of our country”. Anyone who reads CR knows this is simply not true, and cannot be true, unless all women suddenly left the workforce. If the idiot would go over to CR and read the article on this very subject, he would fix his statement to read that it is at the lowest level since the mid 80’s. When Reagan was president I might add.

    They really ought to establish intelligence and honesty standards for blogging, or posting anything on the interent for that matter. But first of course we must get this economy fixed.

  59. cvienne says:

    @karen

    “Cash for refrigerator could be a good thing”

    Really not a bad idea…A golfing friend of mine (who is in the heating & cooling business) tells me there is an INCREDIBLE secondary market out there for whoever wants to buy freon by the pallet (and STORE it)…Because of all the old units which require that…

  60. Thor says:

    Cvienne – That makes sense. I must also assure everyone that I don’t have a strong opinion on the early retirement issue in the BLS numbers, I’m just looking at different scenarios . . . . The total number of employed has to be going down somehow :-)

  61. Vilgrad says:

    It’s great with no moderator.

  62. AmenRa says:

    @Vilgrad

    Posts do disappear after being reviewed. I’m just saying.

  63. jc says:

    Thor, Trimtabs was much better than BLS as they showed in 2006 an up year and much better in 2008 a down year for jobs.
    http://www.trimtabs.com/site/TTSampleResearch/WeeklyMacroAnalysisSample.pdf

    They seem to work off daily payroll tax receipts to determine # of workers increasing/decreasing. Simple and timely deduction(s) (pun intended). BLS is much more complicated, subject to repeated adjustments, just what an elected official needs in troubled times like these. By the time the true July unemployment numbers are known nobody is interested anymore.

    http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tom-blumer/2009/08/04/ap-finally-discovers-head-snapping-u-s-receipts-dive-still-understates-e

  64. Andy T says:

    well. crude sort of went pear-shaped into the close…i guess GS has sucked enough clients into the long oil/commodity trade, at least for this week.

  65. jc says:

    In times of financial uncertainty of this magnitude I believe most people would hold onto their jobs like barnacles.

  66. jc says:

    Even old people

  67. cvienne says:

    @jc

    “BLS is much more complicated, subject to repeated adjustments, just what an elected official needs in troubled times like these”

    Yeah – ESPECIALLY when the Congress as a whole is at historical low approval ratings, and AT HOME at the moment facing the IRE of mobs & pitchforks…

    I’m too lazy right now to supply the references, but it’s making the TEAPARTY’s look like, well, teaparties…It’s the SENIORS right now that are mad as hell (mostly about healthcare)…

  68. manhattanguy says:

    Or consumer product companies should allow you to exchange your old appliances for new ones (eco friendly). They can charge you the difference. Much like how you could trade your old bike for a new bike.

  69. Vilgrad says:

    AmenRa

    I’m fine with that. As long as Paul S gets to read it 1st.

  70. Thor says:

    Great thread today by the way – one of the best in awhile!

  71. cvienne says:

    @manhattanguy

    …and to top it all off…banks can offer you NEW crappy loans to replace the OLD crappy loans…

    And we can continue to elect NEW crappy Presidents to replace the OLD crappy Presidents…

    UPGRADE AMERICA!

  72. Andy T says:

    I see Paul Tudor Jones is classifying this as a bear market rally….He must not have gotten the memo.

    “Impressive counter-trend rallies are a feature, not an oddity, of secular bear markets.” – Tudor Jones.

    What does that loser know anyway….?

  73. cvienne says:

    Well Andy…

    The president’s overall approval rating dropped below 50% the other day…so a good old fashioned stock market rally is just the tonic for that, RIGHT?

  74. Paul S says:

    Apparently Jim Q is a Villanova Grad? Is that you Jim?
    In any case, whoever Vilgrad is- Jim Q edited his (previously completely fallacious) statement to now read “the employment to population ratio at 59.4% is the lowest since 1983″.
    God job Jim. There is some hope for you. Although spinning about BLS statistics in whatever fashion you choose to make an arguement is pretty easy. And I’ll be the first to say today’s numbers are still bad- I just don’t think it necessarily follows that it also makes Obama bad- the economy is going through major structural changes that are ongoing for decades now.
    And Vilgrad- your language in that response was not cool. I can only hope BR removes it.

  75. cvienne says:

    @Andy T

    Re: Tudor Jones

    Yeah what a chump…LOL

  76. Andy T says:

    I try not to become a conspiracy theorist too often, but if I’m the Treasury and I’m selling 75bn of new issues next week, a record, then I’m pissed about this rally in rates….and I would do something about it–like tube the stock market….create a “flight to quality” rally….then UNLOAD 75 bones on to some nice US debt investors….

  77. cvienne says:

    @Paul S

    Nothing Obama does will EVER be bad…

    Now…can we dispense with minting that coin and get on with our lives?

  78. cvienne says:

    @Andy

    “if I’m the Treasury and I’m selling 75bn of new issues next week, a record, then I’m pissed about this rally in rates….and I would do something about it–like tube the stock market….create a “flight to quality” rally….then UNLOAD 75 bones on to some nice US debt investors….”

    I’ve been saying that…wait…YELLING that for the past week now!

  79. DeDude says:

    >> 50 points for once again bringing partisan politics into your post<<

    Thor; is that 50 points on the S&P because although I am a true patriot who want America to win, I am getting a little scared of these hights :-

    PS: why should anybody react to Vilgrad’s link, it is just a bunch of right wing spin, with classic wing nut strategy of trying to defend a position with made up explanations because the data gives a different picture than what they want to believe. He claims with bib fat types that “THE TRUTH IS THAT THEY WANT TO BE EMPLOYED”. Has he talked with every one of those 422,000?, if not did he just pull that statement out of his dumb a$$? With the baby boomer generation going into retirement there is nothing surprising about a fall in employment to population ratio. That fall has been predicted for decades and been extensively debated in the context of the social security trust fund and its future.

  80. cvienne says:

    @Andy

    …not trying to usurp your logic though…

    You’re one of the “coolest”…And I mean that in a variety of different ways…here on TBP…

  81. Vilgrad says:

    I am a Villanova grad. I only respond in the tone in which I am attacked. I thank you for pointing out my mistake on the population ratio. Do you dispute the jist of my post?

    I am certainly not a right winger. If you were to read articles on my site, I have crushed Bush, neocons, Chaney, etc.

    I would classify myself as Ron Paul Republican. Therefore, I’m despised by mainstream Republican and Democrats. That is the way I like it.

    Obama said his stimulus plan would save 3 million jobs. We have lost over 2 million jobs since his stimulus passed. What is happening is not structural. It was caused by policies of the Right and Left.

    My site is certainly not fringe. It will be portrayed that way by people who don’t like to hear the truth. Some of the best members of my site began with a nasty exchange with me on another site. I would suggest that you come to the site and have spirited discussions with our members.

    Sorry for the rant. I have a bit of an Irish temper.

  82. AmenRa says:

    the hour of reckoning approaches…

  83. cvienne says:

    @DeDude

    Let me make this perfectly clear…

    I…and I think almost 100% of the people on TBP…WANT AMERICA TO WIN…

    I can’t really conceive of any reason why so many smart people (including yourself), would devote so many hours to this blog if that were not the case…

    There ARE, though, different beliefs as to how AMERICA WINS (involving shorter vs. longer roads, or degrees of pain & suffering potentially endured)…

  84. AmenRa says:

    NBER’s Frankel said the recession “may” have ended in July. Just stop with the “official” announcements.

  85. manhattanguy says:

    “Obama said his stimulus plan would save 3 million jobs. We have lost over 2 million jobs since his stimulus passed. What is happening is not structural. It was caused by policies of the Right and Left.”

    I can’t wait to see Franklin’s response to this comment.

  86. The Curmudgeon says:

    @AT…if all you do is follow the money and you always end up at the Fed (and its cohorts, like GS, JPM, BAC, etc.), does that make you a “conspiracy theorist”?

    There is nothing, nothing about any market metric or statistic that should ever be trusted, not since at least about Sep of 08 when they rescued AIG. It’s been all smoke and mirrors and underhanded manipulations ever since, including the unemployment rate, as today provides a fine example.

    So, if I was Bill Gross at Pimpco and had a trillion dollars to manage, where 20 bp on a 10yr makes or loses a few billion dollars, I’d definitely think about buying some treasuries right now, or better, I’d call the Fed and tell them what they needed to do for me to buy some their trash paper such that their funding costs go down. That’s not a conspiracy theory. It’s just the way the world operates.

  87. cvienne says:

    @manhattanguy

    Actually the number was 3.5 – 4 million…but who really cares about numbers?

  88. karen says:

    US Treasuries are quality??? What is happening with yields now might just finally be the bursting of the bond bubble..

  89. cvienne says:

    @AmenRa

    “NBER’s Frankel said the recession “may” have ended in July. Just stop with the “official” announcements.”

    NO WAY…Keep ‘em coming!…Draw the rubes in…The higher this thing goes, the better!

  90. Thor says:

    Dedude – great response, As you know I tend to like to stir the pot a bit, my mother was always fond of calling me a shit disturber. I was looking for a little spirited debate on Vilgrad’s link :-)

    Of course now that I see the link was posted by the author of the blog I feel kind of dirty for pouring flame on the fire. Lesson learned!

  91. karen says:

    Oh, thank goodness for the final hour.. not sure i could take much more of this..

  92. Vilgrad says:

    DeDude

    You really make yourself look bad. The data is from your beloved government. There is no spin, because none is required.

    The workforce goes up by 150,000 per month on average and has been doing so for years. Look at the data. It clearly shows that. The government has dropped these people out of their calculation because they gave up looking for jobs.

    I can tell who the cheerleaders are around here. TBP would be too damaging to your fragile ego.

  93. Paul S says:

    Yes I know I “got your Irish up”, my ‘S’ stands for an Irish name too.

  94. manhattanguy says:

    Oil rally is done in my opinion. Dollar will continue its move up next week. Equities will stall if not correct.

  95. DeDude says:

    >>Obama said his stimulus plan would save 3 million jobs. We have lost over 2 million jobs since his stimulus passed.<<

    There’s a piece of braindead wingnut spin if I ever have seen one. Have you never heard of pouring water into a bucket with a hole in it? For all of your claims to the contrary such a stupid remark really revals al about your ideological spin. You are not addressing a bunch of average braindead rednecks from a standard Fox audience. These people expect a little better unless you just want to destroy your own credibility.

  96. cvienne says:

    @karen

    “US Treasuries are quality???”

    No – they’re shit…But how, pray tell, does LOGIC factor into financial investing…

    If you can convince fund managers to buy equities at these valuations, it should be a piece of cake to convince Treasury buyers that the US is on solid footing…

  97. call me ahab says:

    cvienne-

    you never heard of “quality shit” before-

    reminds me of my high school days-

    pass the bong please

  98. Andy T says:

    @karen. bubbles have a funny way of remaining in bubble- like state for longer than most would believe, especially when everyone on TV is talking about the bubble in US debt.

    I’m probably going to have to buy some Sep Ten year futures next Monday morning…currently trading 114’30…I think 114’08 holds as the low from a few weeks ago….if not, then we’ll probably drop to 111’06 where there will be major support. It’s worth taking a stab early next week imo.

  99. Thor says:

    Ahab – and that reminds me of the Friday night I’m about to have – green shoots anyone?