Non Farm Payrolls gets released this morning. Some outlets have pointed out an expected”beat” by BLS.

As we have long advocated, investors should be more concerned with the details than the headline, and watch for signs of a change in trend.A plus or minus 100k from the consensus is all but statistically irrelevant.

Be aware of the revisions, and Birth/death adjustment: Watch to see how much this impacts the overall number.

Look at these three leading indicators within the release:

1) Hours worked: Are employers still cutting back hours? That is a sign they lack confidence going forward.

2) Wages and income: Are salaries still falling? It reveals how much demand there is for labor.

3) Temp help:  Are employers starting to hire temporary workers?

These will provide some insight into the state of the Labor market.


I will be sitting in a canoe when these numbers come out. Use comments to update the release . . .

Category: Employment

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

321 Responses to “Trend, Not a Single Data Point”

  1. DeDude says:

    >>The workforce goes up by 150,000 per month on average and has been doing so for years.<<

    Yes and nothing has changed in the last 6 month that could possibly have switched that trend?? All those buy out retirement packages that have been announced by big companies and city/county/state governments trying to deal with the problems created by a contracting economy could not possibly change that trend? No 150K to eternity and back ;-)

    The things you do or don’t think about reveals you as a right wingnut, and that’s the way it is.

  2. Vilgrad says:


    Again I must pummel you like a little rag doll.

    The number of unemployed in January 2009 according to BLS was 11.6 million

    At the end of July the number of unemployed was 14.5 million according to the BLS

    Even a left winger like you should be able to subtract, unless you went to public school.

    IT EQUALS 2.9 million more people unemployed.

    Your stupidity is only exceeded by your arrogance.

  3. Thor says:

    Vilgrad & Dedude – great spirited debate, could you guys please (just for me) dispense with the name calling? If ya can’t make a point without resorting to an insult then don’t bother to make the point.

  4. AmenRa says:

    Looks like the 38.2% won’t hold. May have to add to shorts before the close.
    Oh btw don’t forget today is FDIC Failure Friday.

  5. manhattanguy says:

    agree with Thor. Keep it civil folks.

  6. karen says:

    Andy, the bond bubble burst is exactly a year overdue, imo. won’t hold my breath for it, tho, nor bet on it either.

  7. Vilgrad says:


    I would love to discuss this subject with civility, but they started the name calling. When you don’t have facts you resort to right wing BS.

  8. Andy T says:

    ok…useless prediction for last 42 minutes of trading….we stage a tepid little rally at the bottom of the hour on front running before the 3.50pm pump, but fail into 1016 and we then collapse into the close. I’m using the pear-shaped close on CL as the canary in the coal mine for today….

  9. cvienne says:

    @Andy T

    I’m right in lock step with you on the 10y…(hey – it worked in June)


    Funny :-)…Makes me want to “chill” watching a stoner movie 2nite

  10. karen says:

    ahab, that was funny, btw.

    manhattanguy, i wish you’d amend your post to read, “Equities will stall if correct.”

  11. DeDude says:

    cvienne; sorry I would never question YOUR patriotism. I like you even if I disagree with you most of the time :- You at least put forward arguments in a debate. I have just had so much of that patriotism shot at me during the Bush years that I connot help but send it back when I get a mostly rightwing audience.

  12. HCF says:

    As I like to keep on harping on…. Where’s the volume?

    Do we have a situation where the same 50 computers trade the same things back and forth to each other at ever higher prices. Why does this seem kind of like condo flipping to me?


  13. karen says:

    cvienne, somehow I don’t think the “age before beauty” rule worked on our simultaneous 3:21 posts..

  14. cvienne says:

    @Andy T

    “pear shaped”…

    That term always makes me laugh…

    I spent years as a personal trainer…90% of my clients were women…At some point I always had to level with them, look them straight in the eye and say…”You basically have two choices…do you want to be a BIGGER or a SMALLER pear?”…

    …about 1% managed to have the stones to escape that gravity…

  15. call me ahab says:

    Vilgrad Says-

    “pummel you like a little rag doll”

    dude- you pummel little rag dolls? That’s not right- also-

    how do we know you are the dude from the theburningplatform? No link with your name that I can see-

    outside of that- some of your stuff’s pretty good- a lot of emotion for sure- some valid points as well

  16. call me ahab says:

    “do you want to be a BIGGER or a SMALLER pear?”…


  17. Onlooker from Troy says:


    Just because people are taking “early retirement” packages (aka – all too often – take this or be laid off) doesn’t mean they’re truly retiring, or able to. They’re just taking what they can get and then have to figure out how to either make some money elsewhere or live on the income that gives them.

    You’ve seen the numbers on what the average BB has saved, and you know the terrible condition of pensions (more of which are disappearing thru corporate bankruptcies). These early retirement packages aren’t often very fat and generous except for a sliver at the top of the ladder in corporate America.

    Believe what you want, but I think it’s doubtful that you can attribute a large portion of this net labor force reduction to normal BB demographics. But I appreciate your balanced and questioning viewpoint.

  18. HCF says:

    @ cvienne:
    >Funny :-)…Makes me want to “chill” watching a stoner movie 2nite

    You should make it ‘Dazed and Confused’ -

    Slater: “Didja ever look at a dollar bill, man? There’s some spooky shit goin’ on there. And it’s green too. ”


  19. Thor says:

    Troy: “I appreciate your balanced and questioning viewpoint.”

    Right back at ya!

    Like I said, don’t really have an opinion either way on where the decline might be coming from, just throwing ideas out there.

  20. cvienne says:


    I get you on the “Bush Patriotism” thing…(the over-zealous nature – not so much about the MAN, but the MISSION – it always came off as “biblical” or something)…

    You know it’s funny…I was as indifferent about Bush as I am about Obama…It was EASY being indifferent about Bush, because I lived out of the country for most of his term…

    I can imagine, though, 8 years of “pent-up” frustration if you were on the other side…It’s hard NOT to let that skew your approach…Let things settle in a little…See what happens…12 years of living in Italy reconciled me to that view…

  21. karen says:

    I didn’t find Cvienne funny at all.. and i disagree, the pears i know where just lazy..

  22. Andy T says:

    cv. I’m sure your clients really appreciated that sort of honesty about their shapes. LOL.

  23. DeDude says:


    >> Again I must pummel you like a little rag doll<<

    Vilgrad or is that Vilundergrad? You don’t even seem capable of understanding the concept of “filling water in a bucket with a hole in it”. So lets bring it down to gradeschool level and hope you get it this time. Obama promised to create 3-4 million jobs over the 2 years the stimulus package last, we are about a quarter into that period. The reason he wanted a stimulus package was not that emplyment was stable and he wanted another 3-4 million jobs added to a stable number of jobs. It was because the jobmarket was collapsing and he wanted to stop the skyrocketing of unemployment.

    This is the best I can do, if you don’t get it yet then I will be happy to give you a referral to the nearest kindergarden. Then your stupidity has truly exceeded my arrogance and that is no small task ;-)

  24. cvienne says:


    “cvienne, somehow I don’t think the “age before beauty” rule worked on our simultaneous 3:21 posts..”

    oooooooh snap!

  25. DeDude says:

    Sorry Thor, sorry Manhattanguy;

    I didn’t see your posts before I fired the last shot.

  26. Vilgrad says:

    Call me ahab

    My name is Jim Quinn. I started TheBurningPlatform in February of this year. Barry, Mish, and John Mauldin were my inspiration.

    I’m strident in my views. We have 933 members and we are getting about 60,000 visits per month. The debates are quite sprited and I think entertaining. It isn’t restricted to finance. We battle over politics, religion, and economics.

    I thought Bush was the worst President in history. I think Obama has a chance to top him. I despise Greenspan as much as Barry does.

  27. cvienne says:


    “I didn’t find Cvienne funny at all.. and I disagree, the pears i know where just lazy…”

    The HIDDEN TRUTH is that I just made up that story to elicit a response from you :-)

    Clever me!

    I have NO DOUBT that you’d fit into the 1% category…What with HERCULES and all!

  28. DeDude says:

    I sort of like it when it degrades, because I am arrogant enough to think I can degrade with the best of them :-)

  29. Thor says:

    Dedude – fair enough – but considering most of the stimulus money hasn’t be spent yet, how much of that stimulus money can be attributed to the fall in jobless claims? How much of it is due to nothing more than being in a specific phase of the business cycle?

  30. call me ahab says:


    Obama is an empty suit- as dumb as Bush- just like Bush-

    partisans suck- all varieties- all parties- all countries

    the people that go into politics are the same people you couldn’t stand in high school

  31. cvienne says:


    I beg to differ…

    Nobody could STAND me in high school…

    But I’m not in politics…:-)

  32. karen says:

    where is I-Man today?

  33. Thor says:

    and Ben

  34. Vilgrad says:


    Give me a break. Please show me the quote from Obama saying he would save the jobs over 2 years. I will be waiting for a long long time, because he never said it. this is the Orwellian doublespeak that Obama and his band of merry men are now spinning. I hate to tell you. Unemployment is skyrocketing. Remember the fake stress tests that Obama used to calm the masses. The unemployment rate is already higher than their worst case scenario. Below are his actual words. Keep believing in the savior he is never wrong.

    Does everyone crush you like a walnut on this site?


    “Millions more Americans will lose their jobs. Homes will be lost. Families will go without health care. Our crippling dependence on foreign oil will continue. That is the price of inaction.”

    “I believe that legislation of this enormous magnitude, that by necessity we are moving quickly — we’re not moving quickly because we’re trying to jamb something down people’s throats. We’re moving quickly because we’re told that if we don’t move quickly, that the economy is going keep on getting worse, and we’ll have another 2 or 3 or 4 million jobs loss this year.This plan will save or create over three million jobs — almost all of them in the private sector.”

  35. cvienne says:

    Yeah K…

    Where’s I-Man?

  36. cvienne says:


    ben’s in Chicago

    I think lefty is still in England

    BR’s in his canoe…

    Despite all the revelry…It seems kind of empty…

  37. karen says:

    ben is in chicago! enjoying the city, i presume… eating well.. maybe shopping for the man purse he wanted.. : )

  38. cvienne says:

    It must be summer…

    S&P hits its higherst mark of the year…

    and everyone is pining about I-Man, LB, & BR

  39. cvienne says:

    and ben…sorry

  40. cvienne says:


    That’s the 2nd time today we had identical time stamps…

  41. karen says:

    think we can get back to 998 by the close? that would be fun.. make monday even more suspenseful..

  42. AmenRa says:

    Anyone notice that Bloomberg has a bad data feed for the television? They are showing the Dow at +126 when it’s actually +121. Earlier they had it at +133 when it was +124. Can’t trust anyone these days.

  43. call me ahab says:

    “Does everyone crush you like a walnut on this site? ”

    Vilgrad- your killing me dude- where do you come up with these lines?

  44. call me ahab says:

    cvienne @ 3:40-

    with a letter jacket and all?

  45. Vilgrad says:

    I had to learn to defend myself on Seeking Alpha. They post my articles and I’m attacked and vilified constantly.

    I’ve been reported to the editors 900 times for inapropriate responses to others. It gets heated on TBP, but we make up and start over the next day.

  46. Cohen says:


    I’m still watching initial claims but at some point the layoffs have to taper off but im more interested in continuing claims (despite the way that number is goosed) and the number of people exhausting theyre extended claims.

  47. cvienne says:


    “with a letter jacket and all?”

    Worse…My letter jacket had 13 pins on it…

    You go try and figure that one out…

    3 sports x 4 varsity letters =12

    But it did suck when I was a freshman, because the frosh on the varsity got tossed into the hallway NAKED…

  48. DeDude says:

    Thor; It will be just about impossible to figure out exactly how much of the fall in unemployment can be attributed the stimulus package. However, the Obama administration has given some fairly detailed instruction to all the recipients of stimulus money to report any new hirering payed by that money. So eventually it will be possible to document the exact number of jobs, and how long they lasted. This is the difference between Bush and Obama. Obama actually want to know because he is building his policies on facts, not ideology. He already has and will continue to make mistakes, but he will do a lot better than Bush because he want to understand and make policy based on facts.


    “This plan will save or create over three million jobs — almost all of them in the private sector.”

    And the plan was a 2-year plan, right?, not only did he not state it would save three million jobs in 3 months or a year, but it is obvious that since the expense is spreed over 2 years the effects would be expected to come over that same period.

  49. call me ahab says:


    FYI- to posters on this blog TBP = The Big Picture

  50. Vilgrad says:


    Can you read? HE SAYS – IF YOU DON’T PASS HIS PLAN, WE”LL LOSE 2 or 3 or 4 million jobs THIS YEAR. He did not reference next year. He said this year. It is now July and we’ve lost 2.9 million jobs. We will reach his 4 million number by the end of the year. Congress passed his bill and we will lose 4 million jobs.

    Now here is where the Orwellian Obama spin comes in. If we didn’t pass his $767 billion porkulus monstrosity, we would have lost 7 million jobs. Therefore, the savior saved 3 million jobs. Is that the hole in your bucket big guy?

    Bring it on. I’ll leave you in a heap of smoldering ashes.

    “We’re moving quickly because we’re told that if we don’t move quickly, that the economy is going keep on getting worse, and we’ll have another 2 or 3 or 4 million jobs loss THIS YEAR.This plan will save or create over three million jobs — almost all of them in the private sector.”

  51. Andy T says:

    Well…that’s the end of my day. For bigger picture technical types, the 38.2% actually held today and the bulls have a little more shadow on the daily candlestick than they would like to see (but, hey it’s a Friday.) The Nasdaq, undisputed leader of the markets this year, failed to make a new high. Crude put up a pretty nasty daily candle today and does not look good. The dollar put in a very impressive week. With record Treasury auctions coming, I think the SP500 gets beat up a bit next week. That said, the bears have a long road to travel to turn this medium term equity picture bearish….

  52. karen says:

    ciao! as cvienne would say, need to give this a rest and enjoy the remaining 7+ hours of sunlight left on my day..

  53. Vilgrad says:

    What a coincidence. TBP means The Burning Platform to me.

  54. karen says:

    and thank you for the recap, Andy. sounds good to me : )

  55. manhattanguy says:

    @Andy T : agree with your analysis

  56. cvienne says:


    I’m over & out too…

    My sis just showed up with my neice & nephew…

    We’re going to take the speedboat out on the Potomac and waterboard a little :-)


  57. manhattanguy says:

    Me: Going to Mostly Mozart concert at Lincoln center tonight. Have a good w.e folks.

  58. call me ahab says:


    I’ll 2nd manhattanguy @ 4:15

    I have seen the markets make bigger jumps with lesser news-


  59. DeDude says:

    Vilgrad; it’s really bad when you cant even get your own quotes right.

    >>we’ll have ANOTHER 2 or 3 or 4 million jobs loss this year<<

    And nothing in that piece says that he will prevent the job loss “this year” he is saying he will create 3 million jobs (WITHOUT specifying what timeframe those 3 million jobs will be created over)

  60. Vilgrad says:


    Do facts make your head hurt?

    He said we would have another 2 or 3 or 4 million job losses this year if we DID NOT pass his porkulus bill. We passed it. We will have 4 million jobs losses this year. What part don’t you understand?

    I feel like I’m in knife fight and I have a bazooka.

    Go to and learn something.

  61. DeDude says:


    “It is now July and we’ve lost 2.9 million jobs. We will reach his 4 million number by the end of the year”

    Talking at a time when the last available monthly job loss was 741,000 his doomsday number of 2-4 million was obviously not referring to a fear that the total for the year could come to 2-4 million. The fear was that inaction would allow the economy to sink so bad that we would get ANOTHER (i.e. additional) 2-4 million jobs lost.

    I guess you didn’t bother with advanced classes in logic or english at Vilanova ;-)

  62. DeDude says:

    I know, you tried but they made your head hurt ;-)

  63. batmando says:

    @ Vilgrad at 3:54 pm
    “It gets heated on TBP,…”

    After about the 2nd exchange of insults and ad hominem irrelevancy, I stop reading puerile posts such as yours and DeDude’s. There’s more heat than light and little or nothing is added to the discourse. I don’t give a sh*t about what you think of other commenters or their opinions of you, only about the substance of the respective arguments.

    “on Seeking Alpha.., I’m attacked and vilified constantly”
    Get used to it, respond to reasoned argument, and let the rest go. You’ll get more respect in the long run.

  64. Vilgrad says:


    He spoke those words in February. We have lost ANOTHER 2.9 million jobs since he spoke those words.

    You are seriously going to make the case that without his bill, we would have lost 7 millions jobs in 2009? I believe I predicted that Orwellian argument earlier in this string.

    Fear is all you have. You have no facts. You make no case. And you can’t even spell Villanova. You must have went to Harvard.

  65. Vilgrad says:


    I don’t give a shit what you think of me or what I have to say. You can float above it all.

  66. DeDude says:

    So in February Obama knew that we had lost 740K jobs and he must have known about the 680K that would come out for February, that is 1.42 million right there. Everybody knew that there was no way the money ould get out and have any effect for March (say another 600K at least). And you want us to believe that he was trying to persuade the congress that we had to pass the stimulus or else we could end up with a doomsday scenario of 2 million jobs lost for the year ???

    You should have taken an Advil and gone to those courses anyway ;-)

  67. DeDude says:

    And yes 650K/month for 12 month would give you a loss of over 7 million. So if we had stayed about the same for the rest of the year he would have predicted that.

  68. dead hobo says:

    Andy T Says:
    August 7th, 2009 at 2:30 pm

    well. crude sort of went pear-shaped into the close…i guess GS has sucked enough clients into the long oil/commodity trade, at least for this week.

    Noooo. As long as a speculative dollar is available to be sucked out of somebody’s pocket, oil will rise like a bottle rocket from China. It will only go down if the stock market crashes AND stock buys are leveraged. Otherwise, it will really take off as the only place to make a buck in a bear market reasserting itself. Competent regulation will be the only thing capable of killing oil.

  69. emmanuel117 says:

    Vilgrad is SERIOUS BUSINESS here, peeps.

  70. The Curmudgeon says:

    Batmando…”puerile” is a really cool word, but you should maybe have defined it, Hofferesquianish, for the children to whom it was directed.

  71. Thor says:

    270 posts – that’s got to be a record . . . . .

  72. karen says:

    thor, i was thinking the same! easy to get to 3 from here..

  73. call me ahab says:

    well we did have the ongoing shout down between vilgrad and dedude- I wonder if vilgrad is legit- I mean I can change my username at will- as can anyone

  74. Christopher says:


    Is that French for “douchebaggery”?

  75. the bohemian says:

    and now I am the bohemian

  76. Christopher says:


  77. DeDude says:

    call me ahab;

    Don’t lay it all on my foot – I only had a dozen of the 270. I think it was all the action on wall street today that garnered so much activity; and the fact that no other treads were natural for taking that stuff. Anyway y’all enjoy your week-end.

  78. DeDude says:

    And I am sorry, but when someone comes in and promotes their own website using a synonym, I do get pi$$ed and I can get drawn into a pi$$ing contest (even if I generally believe that Trolls should be ignored).

    (we are getting closer to 300 – help me out here)

  79. Andy T says:

    I’m just pasting a random thought to get to 300 posts….

    Hope none of you are short sugar. That thing has gone parabolic on Indian drought….and I while I normally look for reasons to short such things on a spike, there’s nothing about that market, technically, that makes we want to short it. So, let’s say a little prayer for our brethren who might be on the pointy end of that stick. Ugh.

  80. Whammer says:

    I came to say

  81. Whammer says:

    I cannot stay

  82. Whammer says:

    I must be going……..

  83. Whammer says:

    Really, seriously, gotta go………..

  84. Wes Schott says:

    in the interest of 300 AND a good time…from the Good Riddance thread

    …since no linkfest provided….i got two, one for thought, one for pleasure

    “Lying about Lies”
    there is a link to part one

    Miles…So What……….sweeeeet

  85. the bohemian says:

    okay- I am back as one of my other aliases- vilgrad got nothin’ on me- and I forgot- Paul S- he was in on the vilgrad action-

    vilgrad appears to pride himself on his “in your face style” and he was confusing the shit out of me when he kept referencing the TBP but meaning The Burning Platform- not- The Big Picture-

    “pummel you like a little rag doll”- that made me laugh- because- who pummels rag dolls- now if he said-

    “I am going to beat you like a stepchild”- then maybe I would understand

  86. the bohemian says:

    and may I add- that ahab is the best poster I have ever had the chance to read- always smart, in a subdued but cool way, never loses his temper- loves one and all- including franklin-

    just can’t get enough of that ahab

  87. Wes Schott says:

    you mean ish?

  88. karen says:

    andy, lol, thanks for the sugar info..i have so much to tell but no one would find it interesting. for instance, yesterday, i got in a creative mood and moved 3, large, clay, olive oil urns to a better location.. i have an aquaduct with no water, so each urn now stands in front of a pillar.. don’t know why i never thot of it before yesterday.

    urns lool like this, altho in so cal i easily paid dbl this price:

  89. Andy T says:


    tsk, tsk, tsk….phrase dropping about all your expensive urns in front of pillars in SoCal?

  90. karen says:

    another spectacular happening i can report.. this afternoon, charley, my son’s friend, jumped off the balcony into the pool, first time anyone has ever attempted it… i can’t wait till they email me the video.. and he did it repeatedly..

  91. Vilgrad says:


    Your responses are endlessly entertaining. Was I promoting my site using a synonym or a pseudo name?

    Does Obama know unemployment numbers before the rest of us? Oh I forgot. He is the savior. He knows everthing.

    He has wasted $767 billion of our tax dollars and passed the bill onto future generations without creating one job in the private sector. Those are the facts big guy. But don’t let facts get in the way of your beliefs and rhetoric.

  92. karen says:

    Vilgrad, i appreciate your sincere attempt to educate.. and I applaud your continuing effort.. but they just print the money up, it’s not really being stolen from the taxpayer.. that’s just rhetoric to give the $ value…

  93. the bohemian says:

    vilgrad- you’re back-

    Obama is infallible- don’t you know anything-

    Jesus could walk on water- but Obama can do it twice as far-

    and you have heard of Einstein right?- moron compared to Obama-

    you just have to change your perception of things- and you will then understand-

    with Obama- the sky- is- the – limit

  94. the bohemian says:

    now I am off to get my mass quantities of beer- but will be back- I think I will step up to some PBR tonight- that Natty Ice gets a little old after a while

  95. Vilgrad says:


    I know they are just printing it up, but it does have implications. A dollar is only worth something if people and other countries believe it is worth something. When they realize we will print for all eternity, it will collapse. Most people’s net worth is tied up in dollars. They won’t be too happy when they are left with 10% of what they thought they had.

  96. karen says:

    Vilgrad, pls read this, i am certain we are on the same page:

    everyone else ignore as i promised I’d never post it again…

  97. jc says:

    Vilg, I don’t know if O’B did the right thing but doing nothing would have been the wrong thing. The same people who were silent during 8 consecutive years of record Bush deficits spring to life the first record O’B deficit. If only Bush had followed the Clinton pattern of balanced budgets we would have been better positioned to cope with this Bush/Greenspan created crisis.

    My hopes of O’B dumping BB and Turbo Timmy are fading with this orchestrated stock bubble.

  98. bubba says:


    remind me, what was rp’s plan for staving off GD II?

  99. the bohemian says:

    alright- I’m back-


    Bush sucked- and that is almost exclusively why Obama got elected-

    but what is Obama doing that is any different? How about nothing- he had a golden opportunity- and he fucked it away- by following Bush almost in lock step


    great article by the way- anybody who reads it will definitely have the light bulb go on

  100. Vilgrad says:


    I agree that Bush was a disaster. Both parties deserve to be blamed for the disaster.

    Our beloved numbskull Vice President Joe Biden said last week, “We have to go spend money to keep from going bankrupt”. President Bush said, “I’ve abandoned free-market principles to save the free market system”. President Obama insisted that the only way to save our country from catastrophe caused by excessive debt was to borrow $700 billion and spend it on infrastructure projects, of which only 3.5% was allocated to our crumbling infrastructure.

    We are running a $2 trillion deficit this year. The average American doesn’t get it:

    They are spending $5.5 billion per day more than they are bringing in.

    They are spending $228 million per hour more than they are bringing in.

    They are spending $3.8 million per minute more than they are binging in.

    They are spending $63,000 per second more than they are bringing in.

    This can’t go on.