Non Farm Payrolls gets released this morning. Some outlets have pointed out an expected”beat” by BLS.

As we have long advocated, investors should be more concerned with the details than the headline, and watch for signs of a change in trend.A plus or minus 100k from the consensus is all but statistically irrelevant.

Be aware of the revisions, and Birth/death adjustment: Watch to see how much this impacts the overall number.

Look at these three leading indicators within the release:

1) Hours worked: Are employers still cutting back hours? That is a sign they lack confidence going forward.

2) Wages and income: Are salaries still falling? It reveals how much demand there is for labor.

3) Temp help:  Are employers starting to hire temporary workers?

These will provide some insight into the state of the Labor market.


I will be sitting in a canoe when these numbers come out. Use comments to update the release . . .

Category: Employment

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

321 Responses to “Trend, Not a Single Data Point”

  1. Andy T says:

    dibs on 300

  2. Wes Schott says:

    @Vilgrad- can you say zimbabwe

  3. Vilgrad says:


    Ron Paul believes in the Austrian school of economics. The depression is here. It has been delayed. It was caused by the Federal Reserve encouraging moral hazard and by reducing interest rates to ridiculously low levels resulting in massive malinvestment. You can no borrow your way out of a problem caused by borrowing too much. The debt must be paid off or written off. The pain can not be avoided. Companies and banks need to fail. Consumers need to save rather than spend. The reason the MSM despises Ron Paul is because he doesn’t offer fake BS solutions. His own party despises him. I’ll be at his three day Campaign for Liberty conference in Valley Forge in September.

  4. karen says:

    andy, i hope that makes you happy, mr. 300 at 10:00 PM..

  5. Vilgrad says:


    Excellent article. It is no coincidence that the modern income tax and the Federal Reserve both came into existence in1913. Since then, the dollar has lost 97% of its purchasing power versus gold due to inflation created by the Federal Reserve. Taxes were 1% in 1913. What are they today when all are taken into consideration? 30% – 40%. Income, social security, state, local, real estate, sales, gasoline, etc.

  6. karen says:

    Vilgrad, i’m hopeful you took the time to read it… I trust you’ve also read “The Creature from Jekyll Island” and, if you were fortunate to find/have a copy, Ferdinand Lips’, “Gold Wars.” That is the end all be all, as far as I am concerned..

  7. call me ahab says:


    ron paul is right in many things- but he will never be elected-

    if someone who is electable bought his ideas and sold it to the American public-

    then we’re talking-

    but it all may be a bit late at this point- everyone is still trying to play the same game- but they have already lost all their blue chips-

    soon to be in debt to the house and kicked to the curb

  8. karen says:

    Obama is not the promised revolution.. another hands tied behind his back politician. Yes, I vote for him.. but as a registered Republican I voted for Ron Paul in the primary… where in the heck is cnbcsucks?! he would love this dialogue.. perhaps i should send him a note to check in..

    What is our target now? 350?

  9. call me ahab says:

    and Karen-

    my observation is that you have become a bit more bearish over the last several weeks- but maybe my mind is a bit addled by my mass quantities of beer-

    so opine if you are so inclined

  10. Vilgrad says:

    call me ahab & karen

    I agree that it is not likely that Ron Paul will get elected, but his message is spreading. It is ideas that will spread and change the dialogue in the country. I wrote a scathing article a few months ago about the Federal Reserve that you might find of interest.—the-federal-reserve

  11. Whammer says:

    Andy T,

    Congrats on 300. You don’t need to thank me for my useless space filling before that, I’m a loyal and enthusiastic subscriber to andystechnicals. ;-)

  12. call me ahab says:


    I skimmed it- looks worthwhile so will give it more dedication tomorrow- however- I liked this line-

    “When the average American is told that the dollar has lost 95% of its purchasing power since the inception of the Federal Reserve in 1913, they look at you with a blank stare and start wondering whether American Idol is on TV tonight. ”

    much truth to that- but an engaged populace has never been true throughout history- as long as- things appear ok- and do not appear as they are being fleeced by the “nobles”-

    and the truth is- that- the USG through the Treasury and Fed can create the” illusion” of prosperity but not “real” prosperity-

    and my impression is a long decline for this country is “baked in” to our future- because-

    we just can’t make the tough choices

  13. Thor says:

    oh sheesh, we’re over here now? I’ve been stuck in one of the other threads hitting refresh every 30 seconds.

    Wait – did I get stuck in a time warp? is it morning again? I see Vilgrad is at it again.

  14. Thor says:

    Hah – and I LOVE that you all took my 270 post and turned it into a sort of stock run up. Are you guys sure 350 is a safe number? I think we might see some serious resistance at 345

  15. karen says:

    sorry, all. i turn into a pumpkin or mouse or something at 9PM pacific time, so i will not be able contribute further to our count : )

    ahab, i try to be a realist.. not bear or bull.. i adhere to a belief that the market is not so smart.. you actually need to get out in front of it.. at times.. at other times, you just follow the hot money. it is definitely batten down the hatches time in california.. i’ve mentioned it before. 2 income families will become 1 income families..the pipeline if full of those that have lived beyond their means.. or were living too large, we are not even half way there..

  16. call me ahab says:


    undoubtedly- sorry to hear you turn into a pumpkin @ 9 PM PST- better to hear that you were awaiting the glass slipper-

    in any event- the markets may be doing there thing- but- at the moment- they don’t reflect reality

  17. Greg0658 says:

    I’m at 3:03pm yesterday catching up on these fish stories and daytrader textings … nothing better (or wish) to do I guess than put time in TBP

    to ManH and cvn maybe others ie “Obama said his stimulus plan would save 3 million jobs. We have lost over 2 million jobs since his stimulus passed. What is happening is not structural. It was caused by policies of the Right and Left.”

    if I remember correctly that statement was reiterated over and over “create or save” jobs

    I guess I consider it my job to counter “us against them propaganda” and ya I want America to Win and the stock market not to tank .. but with all the plays & moves via instruments on Wall Street .. I’m not sure its possible

    now back to this thread

  18. Greg0658 says:

    ps – if the cash transfer system failed how many jobs would have been lost?
    pss – if the autos just sit in lots (both dealerships and manufacturers) revenue streams not flowing for the 2nd largest purchase working stiffs (most downstaters that is) must pursue what goes down? I hear and can relate to favortism to a sector .. but that sector has many tenticles that because of super-corps are all inter-related into other industries.

  19. Greg0658 says:

    I made it to 3:07pm … I agree government spending has been a driving force .. see BRs graph post this morning .. and why controlling Washington is so important to each side

    but you know what else is a driving force – the choir of this blogs industry – derivativing money and borrowing on the supposed wealth accruals .. Wall Street capitalism

  20. Greg0658 says:

    I’m gonna get knocked off but at 3:27pm

    there’s lots of reasons to take early retirement .. save your company money and let others climb up (all the pay raises cause you were good) .. change looks good .. the buyout looks good .. or maybe the job is demanding physically (maybe made you sick) your age is getting up there and insurance is getting cut to boot

  21. Greg0658 says:

    psss – come on marketeers – lets make this BRs 1st 400 thread and an all time high