In the context of the CFTC hearings this week discussing speculators, particularly in the crude contract, the CFTC today said the net speculative long position in crude totaled 34k, a 6 week high but is just 7k contracts above its average since March 2003 when the economy began its prior recovery. It got as high as 130k contracts in Aug ’07 when crude was $77, not far from where it’s now. When crude hit its all time high of $145, the net spec long position was just 26k contracts, close to the 6 1/2 year average.

Category: MacroNotes

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

4 Responses to “Where are those evil speculators?”

  1. Pat G. says:

    No! No! No! We not only want to know the speculative long positions but also the speculative short positions. We not only want to know this for crude positions but for ALL commodity positions that the CFTC has the responsibility of regulating and monitoring. Why isolate just crude? When they ban flash trading, will it be just for a particular sector of stocks or ALL stocks?

  2. wojmax says:

    In viewing the relationship between the price of gas at the pumps locally, and the wholesale price of gas as listed on the commodity exchange, i find that for the last two years the price differential was about $1.00.
    In the last month or so, the differential is about $0.60 to$0.70 cents.

    something has changed. and it’s for the good as far as I can tell.

    Running for cover?

  3. Andy T says:

    Peter.

    C’mon, you’re a smart guy. You’re citing the CFTC futures data on people classified as “speculators.” The larger amount of speculation is being done by pensions/mutuals via GS, MS, and other IBs, who are classified as “commercials.” So, the actual “speculators” as listed by the CFTC is completely incorrect. Also, as you know ICE has been garnering a larger and larger share of the deriv market and many participants have migrated their business to ICE, outside the reporting domain of the CFTC.

    So, the data you cite here is pretty irrelevant….

  4. dead hobo says:

    Andy T Says:
    August 9th, 2009 at 7:31 am

    C’mon, you’re a smart guy. You’re citing the CFTC futures data on people classified as “speculators.” The larger amount of speculation is being done by pensions/mutuals via GS, MS, and other IBs, who are classified as “commercials.

    reply:
    —————
    I don’t know if his post was based on being naive, based on sarcasm, or if he is making a distracting effort calculated to ultimately protect his personal wealth. Regardless, the bottom line is that nobody outside of profiteers and half wit regulators fall for that line anymore.

    Even an ounce of common sense would indicate his detective efforts discovered only a mere fraction of the money chasing oil prices now.