World Trade Bottoms
By Barry Ritholtz - August 17th, 2009, 6:00AM
Israel, Japan, France, Germany are all showing very minor economic expansions — an improvement form the recent freefall. However, green shoot expectations have been for a much greater expansion. Hence, even these positive prints manage to disappoint.
Here is what this improvement looks like in terms of global trade:
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chart courtesy of NYT
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Source:
Hints of a Rebound in Global Trade
FLOYD NORRIS
NYT, August 14, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/15/business/economy/15charts.html
August 17th, 2009 at 8:41 am
A good deal of this improvement is probably the recent fall of the dollar. Notice the China, with their currency essentially pegged to the dollar, is flat-ish. US exports are dead in the water too.
August 17th, 2009 at 9:11 am
Looks like a screen full of dead-cat bounces. Green-shoots, whoopee!
August 17th, 2009 at 9:32 am
[...] A look at world trade: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/world-trade-bottoms/ Starting Monday off on a sour note: [...]
August 17th, 2009 at 9:38 am
If that chart also indicated share of trade in GDP, it would be even more helpful. In that list, for example, India’s share of trade in GDP is so small that the 25% drop in trade doesn’t even show on GDP numbers.
August 17th, 2009 at 4:37 pm
The Asian bottoms seem small and well-defined, but the US bottom is getting wider and seems sort of squishy…