A few additional thoughts on Housing:

1) The hottest markets are where foreclosures have driven prices down 50% or greater;

2) Inventory remains significantly elevated — its closer to 10 months than historic averages of 5-6 months;

3) Mortgage rates are at unusually low levels — despite this, sales remain generally soft;

4) Prices remain elevated by historic norms;

5) Big increase on the low end — Starter homes and Condos — are moving units; The middle and larger (jumbo mortgages) are a vast wasteland; But for the 16k increase in condo sales in the NorthEast, monthly sales would have been negative;

6) Indeed, on a NON-seasonally adjusted basis, [but for that 16k condo bump] National existing home sales were up a mere 12k units year over year.

7) Lots of “shadow” inventory is waiting to come on the market once prices improve; These were specs, vacation property, etc that got caught when the market collapsed — they are renting them out or they are vacant.

Finally, have this last look at the details of sales and inventory over the past 13 months:

>

Existing Homes Sales: Sales, Inventory, and Months Supply

20090821-home-sales-inventory-months-supply

Category: Real Estate

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

11 Responses to “A Closer Look At Housing”

  1. Shnaps says:

    Love that chart!

    ~~~

    BR: Bad link

  2. Shnaps says:

    I have a feeling that as soon as that first-time homebuyer tax credit expires (end of Nov), the prices either take another dip, or the inventory swells again, or both. It resulted in a lot of sales at the expense of what would have been future demand.

  3. franklin420d says:

    Traditionally spring and summer are when the housing market picks up. Also as we all know first time home buyers got up to $8k credit.

    What happens when fall and winter set in?

    I am going to make a green shoot salad for lunch, with say Cash for Clunkers dressing and sprinkled with some unemployment. Yummy………

  4. lw says:

    No worries.. Bernanke says things are looking up and he has never led us wrong.. Just a few more quarters and he will have all the proof he needs to prove the naysayers wrong regarding sub prime mortgage containment.

  5. leftback says:

    Don’t worry about unemployment, hours worked or prime defaults. It’s contained….

  6. Moss says:

    I wonder how many are outright auction sales.
    Did anyone see that article about McAfee in the NYT?
    His net worth went from 100million to 4million and now he is having a no minimum auction on a house to raise cash.

  7. DSS10 says:

    Per Shnaps’ post above:

    I think we need to look at YoY sales for “House Boats” vs. “Manufactured Homes (also known as mobile homes)” for a true leading indicator of housing.

    http://www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com/2009/faq.php#10

    10 – What types of homes will qualify for the tax credit?

    Any home that will be used as a principal residence will qualify for the credit. This includes single-family detached homes, attached homes like townhouses and condominiums, manufactured homes (also known as mobile homes) and houseboats. The definition of principal residence is identical to the one used to determine whether you may qualify for the $250,000 / $500,000 capital gain tax exclusion for principal residences.

  8. Mannwich says:

    @Moss: I saw it and posted it last night. Incredible. What a clown.

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