Comments on: 10 Year Asset Class Returns

By: Ekonomija; Povrat po investicijskim klasama « Eclectica

Ekonomija; Povrat po investicijskim klasama « Eclectica — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 14:23:41 +0000

[...] je zanimljivo: povrat po investicijskim klasama u zadnjih 10 [...]

By: A day of sound, signifiying nothing - Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing - InvestorsInsight.com | Financial Intelligence, Advice & Research / Investment Strategies & Planning for Individual Investors.

Thu, 24 Sep 2009 13:31:08 +0000

[...] Ten year asset class returns (graph): http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/10-year-asset-class-returns/   Earlier this week I linked to an article by former market bear Jim Grant in which [...]

By: 10 Year Asset Class Returns for U.S. | Value-Stock-Plus

10 Year Asset Class Returns for U.S. | Value-Stock-Plus — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 06:18:50 +0000

[...] Source: The Big PictureMore in the Article [...]

By: Onlooker from Troy

Onlooker from Troy — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 22:09:11 +0000

As others have inferred, who says the mean reversion is over? Stocks went to an extreme extreme in 2000 and are just back to some sanity, except that the economic outlook is pathetic and so some more P/E (or other valuation metric, pick one) contraction is still in order. These things tend to overshoot the mean, not bounce off them and go back to the extreme they were just at.

By: techy

techy — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 22:06:38 +0000

the wisdom of masses not much helpful.

but i dont blame you guys…even economist dont know $hit.

my opinion(based on reading a ton of blogs).

we are facing deflationary forces due to consumer de-leveraging which is being balance by FED printing press.

if speculation can be kept minimal….inflation/deflation should stay manageable =-10%.

but as we have seen speculation is such a bitch….anything can happen(oil=200 or oil=20, gold=$300 or $2000) etc..

By: yankee19

yankee19 — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 21:27:30 +0000

Chuck Ponzi wrote: “Inflation is a general phenomenon: it affects all prices and all asset classes, so in that way Barry is more correct.”

This is a ridiculous comment! Crude oil has more than doubled off its’ lows while Natural Gas has been collapsing all year until the past 2 weeks…

By: yankee19

yankee19 — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 21:05:12 +0000

Anyone heard of currency debasement and monstrous fiscal deficits? Has anyone looked at government revenues versus obligations?

By: AlexInNC

AlexInNC — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 20:44:40 +0000

From 9/1/99 to 8/31/99 I get -7.7% (cumulative) and -0.8% (annualized) for the S&P 500 (incl dividends). What am I missing? Also, to be inclusive the chart should include EM equities, +135.6% (cumulative) and +9.1 (annualized) (using MSCI EM Index).

By: How the Common Man Sees It

How the Common Man Sees It — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 20:38:50 +0000

If you believe in mean reversion over the long term — and this is a 10 year chart — then you probably are cautious on Gold here and more constructive on equities for the next 10 years.

Well……maybe 20 years. We still have to work the boomers out of the markets and the shares out of the boomers

Secondly, how do you know that the last ten years of gold wasn’t mean reversion to the upside? I’m sure you’ll remember, and if not you do realize that in the ’90′s Greenspan actually made a statement that the Fed would do everything in it’s power to keep the price of gold suppressed:

“central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise.”

From here:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/1998/19980724.htm

That was when gold was around $250 and they were having a dog of a time keeping a lid on it because back then it was still believed that the POG was a reflection of inflation

By: sharkbait

sharkbait — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 19:56:30 +0000

S&P 500 -50% in USD since 12/31/1999 (~10 yrs.) – vs. a basket of currencies.

S&P 500 -79% in gold since 12/31/1999 (~10 yrs.)

Source: Michael Pento, Delta Global Advisors, 9/16/09