Comments on: 1929 Versus 2007: Employment Change

By: Is the Rally Ending, or Does it Have More to Go? | The Big Picture

Is the Rally Ending, or Does it Have More to Go? | The Big Picture — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 00:35:02 +0000

[...] You may recall that last time, Mish & I disagreed as to whether this was a recession (Me) or a depression (He). • 1929 Versus 2007: Employment Change [...]

By: brisom41

brisom41 — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 15:51:14 +0000

Re-do meant to say bottom is NOT in yet doofus.

By: brisom41

brisom41 — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 15:50:02 +0000

Earth to Eric Tyson the stock market bottom is in yet doofus.

By: Depression Debate – Is this a Depression?

Depression Debate – Is this a Depression? — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 14:55:43 +0000

[...] of Mish In 1929 Versus 2007: Employment Change Barry Ritholtz posted a chart of unemployment with a comment: “This chart makes it pretty [...]

By: Mish

Mish — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 07:53:44 +0000

Barry
I believe we are in a depression.
Prior to the “Great Depression” the word recession did not even exist.
I do not know where the dividing line is, I just know we are over it.
If that sounds strange, note the NBER does not have a formal definition for recession.
Some people get together and decide when it started and when it ended, based on many factors of unknown and probably varying weight.
Recessions are not based on two quarters of negative growth as many people think.

To say we are in a depression one needs to look at a lot of factors and I certainly mentioned them.
Note that we can have “a depression” even if it does not match “the great depression”.

There are just too many parallels to things that happened in the 30’s in regards to housing, credit, the stock market, jobs, treasury yields, etc etc etc that “recessions” since then did not have.
Treasury yields and consumer spending might easily be deciding factors. The Fed’s reaction is another difference. This is certainly not like the stagflations in the 70’s and 80’s at all. And it differs from the 2001 recession in that consumers threw in the towel.

So it’s not just a case of being more severe, there are numerous parallels in play that do not match prior recessions.

Mish

By: investorinpa

investorinpa — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 03:34:57 +0000

Its not a depression (yet)..and its more than a recession. So I’ve taken to calling it a Deprecession. Barry, the unemployment level depends on how you count working adults today vs back then. Also, I think it is wise to look at more than unemployment as one measure of depressionary statistics.

I would love to say I’m well versed to tell you which numbers to look at, but I’m sure housing numbers, spending habits, etc should be used in addition to unemployment.

By: wunsacon

wunsacon — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 01:43:42 +0000

For the record: “Depression! I sayz.” (Isn’t that right, Winston Munny?)

By: wunsacon

wunsacon — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 01:42:14 +0000

Hey, does everyone remember Elizabeth Warren’s lecture on the two-income families’ precarious financial position? Today’s households often need 2 jobs to service their debts!

By: some_guy_in_a_cube

some_guy_in_a_cube — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 00:28:10 +0000

“This chart makes it pretty clear that the current recession is no Depression”

BR, your holiday weekend in Haughtyville out on the North Fork has definitely twisted your world view. Spend your next holiday weekend just about anywhere in the USA, and get your groove back!

By: williams

williams — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 23:52:59 +0000

@BR

Ouch, that was a big one wasn’t it. I mean, break out your KY jelly!

I read Mish’s article and he is not (as you put it) “essentially saying its not a recession, its a bad recession”. He just compares now to then – forget the name you put on it. His point is ‘depression’ as a term is ambiguous.