“There’s going to be a flood of bank-owned homes listed for sale at some point.”

-John Burns, a real-estate consultant based in Irvine, Calif.


Yes, there certainly will be. Burns estimates there will be a “large numbers of foreclosures” that will drive home prices down 6% next year. Analyst Ivy Zelman pegs the number of coming foreclosures at three million to four million homes over the next few years.

All of the voluntary foreclosure moratoriums have slowed “the flow of properties headed toward foreclosure sales” regardless of deep in distress borrowers are. These delays only work to prolong the mortgage crisis and prevent prices from falling to more natural levels.

Thus, it creates a “growing ‘shadow’ inventory of pent-up supply that will eventually hit the market.”

Here’s the excerpt from the WSJ:

“The size of this shadow inventory is a source of concern and debate among real-estate agents and analysts who worry that when the supply is unleashed, it could interrupt the budding housing recovery and ignite a new wave of stress in the housing market . . . Analysts who track the shadow market have focused primarily on the gap between the number of seriously delinquent loans and the number of foreclosed homes for sale by mortgage companies. A loan is considered seriously delinquent, which typically means it is headed to foreclosure, if it is 90 days or more past due.

As of July, mortgage companies hadn’t begun the foreclosure process on 1.2 million loans that were at least 90 days past due, according to estimates prepared for The Wall Street Journal by LPS Applied Analytics, which collects and analyzes mortgage data. An additional 1.5 million seriously delinquent loans were somewhere in the foreclosure process, though the lender hadn’t yet acquired the property. The figures don’t include home-equity loans and other second mortgages.

Moreover, there were 217,000 loans in July where the borrower hadn’t made a payment in at least a year but the lender hadn’t begun the foreclosure process. In other words, 17% of home mortgages that are at least 12 months overdue aren’t in foreclosure, up from 8% a year earlier.”

This overhang is likely going to be problematic for years to come . . .


Delayed Foreclosures Stalk Market


Category: Real Estate

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

32 Responses to “A Coming Flood of Bank Owned Homes”

  1. Cursive says:

    The proposed $15,ooo tax credit for any and all homebuyers will adequately mitigate this small hurdle on the way to 6% annual GDP forever! {sarcasm off}

  2. I look forward to the flood but certainly haven’t seen it yet, I measure trustee sales in CA daily. I really think the banks should get there act together on short sales and short circuit the REOs. There is some evidence of this happening (lots of vacant Short sales on the MLS, also hearing stories of REO Asset Managers assigning short sales to agents which is a new twist) but for many junior liens the only value they have is hostage value. What should happen is the bank sell for market value ASAP and determine who gets what later.

  3. Thor says:

    There is a 15,000 tax credit proposal floating around?

  4. call me ahab says:

    the sad fact- is the tax credit does not attract enough buyers who “would not” have bought if not for the credit-

    in other words the majority of people of buying would have bought anyway-

    so the real cost per added sale- a sale that wouldn’t have happened otherwise- is substantially higher than the $8,000 credit lets on- and-

    equates to about $40,000 per added sale-

    sounds like a bad investment to me- but when your bought and paid for by lobbies- there are no bad investments

  5. Thor says:

    MEH – thanks for that. I must say, it’s getting increasingly difficult for me to keep up with all the tax breaks, rebates, cash for such and such programs.

  6. Charlatan says:

    It’s okay, because apparently, according to Ken Fisher, what we actually need is to be more in debt. So, we got that going for us, which is nice……

  7. James Smith says:

    “While the banks are trying frantically to get loans off their books, they face the problem of large shadow inventories of housing being dumped on the market, which would depress prices further,” said Anthony Sanders, real-estate finance professor at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va.” With high joblessness, it is only normal that subprime-mortgage holder would like to sell their properties since they are not sure of the employment status in the coming months.
    Read more

  8. call me ahab says:

    another way to look at a tax credit- it is an incentive for people to become indebted- whether cash for clunkers or 1st time home buyers-

    with CFC- people were trading in a worthless vehicle w/ no debt- and buying a new car w/ debt

    first time home buyers do not own a home- and therefore no mortgage- and buying the new home equates to a new mortgage

    there we have it- step up right now and get your loan and Uncle Sam will give a little somethin’ somethin’

  9. Latesummer2009 says:

    Now that most of the entry level foreclosures have been bought up by investors and first-time buyers, the only “real” inventory that is saleable is the “shadow inventory” Banks will start releasing inventory if they see they won’t have to write down huge losses. Unfortunately, for the Mid to High Level Markets, they are rediculously upside down. Sooner or later, banks will have to get them off their books in order to be solvent again.

    The Westside of Los Angeles is just starting to crack with drops of 25% not uncommon now. 40-50% off peak prices will finally clear out all the inventory.


  10. dasht says:

    I non-scientifically measure the seriousness, not the absolute number – of course – of the shadow market this way: I walk or ride my bike around the block here in *Berkeley, CA*. Yes, *Berkeley, CA* which is supposedly one of the least-hit areas.

    Per the listings, there is one house for sale on this block. Per the truth, there are 4 or 5 houses held off the market by banks plus 8 condo units. At least three of the houses are foreclosures. The condos are new construction that was *halted* within *weeks* of completion. Every few days you see the banker there talking to a different real estate agent, though never the same agent twice and nobody, as far as I can tell, has taken up the challenge and so much as shown the property to a single potential buyer.

    This block is in a lower rent but still historically desirable part of Berkeley. I moved here from renting on a posher street and, well, it’s only incrementally better on that posher street. There, as far as I can tell from intimacies, rumors, and inuendo – there is a “meta-shadow” market: properties where the owner is good for a few more months of payments but who are pretty clearly not good for much more… people whose notes the bank would normally have called by now but the banks are stretching it out so as to not add to their unsold inventory.

    Shadow is huge, at least here in Berkeley, and over above that there is “meta-shadow”. If all of this stuff went properly on the market anytime soon, prices would likely drop to where I might even be able to afford to buy. Not that I would – not in Berkeley.


  11. godly says:

    Eurozone reports a second consecutive month PMI gain of above 50.8 thus confirming it is well out of the woods. I have always differed from most anlayst who have stated that US will come out the recession first.
    The facts and news continue to back my thesis that EURO will emerge as the new economic super power and its currency stability will make it even more desirable for asian countries to adopt it as their trade currency rather than dollar.
    My portfolio (GA Alpha Fund) continues to be overweight on EUR/USD and EUR/GBP currency.

    check out eurozone PMI rises to 50.8


  12. investorinpa says:

    My market of suburban Philly, where I invest in real estate, is still holding up pretty well. I’ve met with chief lending officers of 5 various banks (some local, some national) all saying the same thing…this issue of shadow inventory is an issue in other markets, not the one I’m in. My friends out in California tell me how every 6th home seemingly is up for sale/abandoned/empty. I now mostly everyone on here is a stock/bond/equities type of investor, but for other RE investors out there, what are you seeing?

  13. damonleo says:

    I lost my business at the end of last year and final stopped paying my debt load in Jan/09. (10 c/c, 2 mortg, 2 helocs, month common c/c for the condos.) The main lien holder on my Miami apt finally has a scheduled court date for early Nov. My NYC apt lien holder has done nothing to date. The Miami apt, I was not even served properly by a process server. They sent regular mail of the notification which can be fought in court as not be properly served as they have no verifiable proof I was ever notified. At least send it certified so I have to sign for it.

  14. Bruce in Tn says:

    A coming flood of bank owned equities??


    A New Bubble Of the Fed’s Creation

    “So who is borrowing? By and large, it’s not households and businesses, which are reluctant to borrow during a recession. Rather, it’s hedge funds and other investors, who have been using the money to buy stocks, corporate bonds and commodities, driving prices to levels unsupported by the business and economic fundamentals.”

  15. wally says:

    The pent-up foreclosure sales are only one area where the policy of kick-the-can-down-the-road must, at some point, return to haunt.
    We’ve done the same in auto sales; we’ve done the same with stimulus checks; we’ve done the same by restoring banks to a state of instability; we’ve done the same by blowing a new stock market bubble…

  16. Bruce in Tn says:

    They tell me Barry has been staying home eating Hamburger Helper….this recession has been tough!


    General Mills Profit Up 51% as Consumers Stay Home

    “General Mills (GIS: 60.96, 0, 0%) saw profits jump 51% in the quarter and raised its fiscal full-year view, as U.S. consumers continue to eat at home in a depressed economy and commodity prices have started to stabilized.

    The maker of Hamburger Helper and Cheerios said it earned a profit of $420.6 million, or $1.25 a share, up from $278.5 million, or 79 cents, from a year ago. Excluding one-time charges and gains, General Mills earned $1.28 a share on revenue of $3.52 billion.”

  17. markd says:

    one reason that the banks aren’t doing more short sales is the amount of junior debt that the homeowner took on. a foreclosure divests most of these a short sale does not.

  18. Had Enough says:

    Come on now broke boomers… sell your crappy house to us now before it’s too late and forget about cashing out on our backs with the prices from yesteryear. Those days are over. You couldn’t even afford to buy back your own houses at current prices, why do you think we should?

    If housing prices can rise commensurate with underlying positive fundamentals, and fall commensurate with negative fundamentals, and similarly rise with provocation from artificially generated bubbles and fall with the end of the bubble support AND therefore, taking into consideration the current state of affairs, namely that the bubble carried prices very much past what they would have been had they been supported by pure fundamentals (income+savings+responsible borrowing) and now these prices must fall to levels ex bubble support AND furthermore, must also be reduced again commensurate with the dismal job market, lack of meaningful savings, poor credit and unhappy future prospects that our country is experiencing RIGHT NOW.

    This would leave housing prices still in need of a substantial reduction. In many parts of the U.S., real estate has seen a doubling in price in nearly the past 10 years, despite recent reductions, almost and historically unheard of 7% gain year on year for the asset. If the long term average according to nearly every academic study of the subject puts gains at 2-3% year on year (depending on which part of the country the real estate is located), it would follow that increases would decline or go negative in a year with no bubble and bad fundamentals, stay the same for average fundamentals performance and grow for better than normal fundamentals.

    There is simply no reason for a house to be more valuable suddenly these days than any other consumer good. Does a boomer’s 50 year old house give that much extra value to a younger buyer to warrant the extra cost as portion of his income than it did to his father who had a larger family and arguably needed it that much more but would have been able to buy it for far less ratio of cost/income?

    We have now been suffering one of the worst fundamentals periods for real estate in our nation’s history: high unemployment, rising costs in essentials like education and medical care, oversupply, low savings/savings damaged by poor investment performance AND the dissipation of a massive bubble in real estate. The combination would put prices much lower, if it weren’t for the unfair subsidy the government is giving to foolish homeowners and thieving banks.

    Besides, moving forward, a drastic drop in real estate value may prove the biggest boon to the continued prosperity and stability of the U.S.

    Millions of young Americans WILL face more insecure income, inflation, underemployment and reduced government services than their predecessors had to, resulting in a steadily declining standard of living during their lifetimes. This WILL happen as long as there are developing nations producing babies that grow up to be $0.30/hour employees inducing business to outsource – or they will immigrate here and compete down our wages in every field. In either case population growth is unlikely to be sufficiently contained in developing nations, and there WILL be more competition for jobs and ever more scarce resources, like it or not.

    The ready availability of cheap housing would go far to help future generations cope with these growing, and seemingly permanent threats to their standard of living. Housing costs are the largest draw on young people’s income. Rendering housing cost less burdensome for young people may allow them a more solid financial base from which to be able to take entrepreneurial risks, raise stable families, encourage the avoidance of imprudent debt, form stable communities, pay for their educations without loans, have extra money for boomer mother and father’s/grandmother and grandfather’s diapers…

  19. manhattanguy says:

    “There is a 15,000 tax credit proposal floating around?”

    Why not just hand out the house to them for free? Changing the size of the band-aid won’t solve the problem. Idiots.

  20. Brendan says:

    Occam’s Razor must be going out of style, ’cause it’s being thrown around with reckless disregard for it’s true purpose. “These delays only work to prolong the mortgage crisis and prevent prices from falling to more natural levels.” How can you say that with any confidence? First, you have to ignore the fact that dropping a ton of inventory onto a market over a short period of time doesn’t generally bring things to their natural level, it brings them below their natural level. And of course, this is even worse for RE than it is for widgets. For one, you spook potential owner-occupiers since even if they can afford a house, it is an investment that they also need to know they won’t be trapped in if their situation changes (i.e. they need to know the price won’t drop further). Even if you create good deals by putting all those foreclosed homes on the market, the average buyer doesn’t know where the floor will be. With the current job market, the likelihood of a person needing to change their housing situation is especially high. For another, you create a spiraling situation where more people will not fight foreclosure than otherwise would have, since based on their home’s dramatically lower (now below natural level) price, it makes financial sense to just go ahead and foreclose rather than hold onto the house, potentially adding another wave the foreclosure crisis. Add on top of that the current high unemployment rate – meaning a lot of potential owner-occupiers are not in the market to buy these homes because they either don’t have a job or are afraid they won’t have one once they buy. So, actually, prolonging the pain now may actually allow for the job market to better align with the RE inventory, which may shorten the crisis in the long run. As a result of these and other more minor issues, the biggest set of people buying these foreclosed homes will be investors who have cash on the sidelines, leaving more vacant homes around, pushing prices even lower (as a side note – flipping already built homes is not going to stimulate the economy much). Isn’t this part of what caused the problem int he first place? A bunch of RE investors got into the market and created artificial demand. Why do we want to recreate this situation? So instead of addressing that, one can just liberally apply some more Occam’s Razor and make those problems go away. It’s magic! Of course the only reason someone would want to do that is because he/she is an RE investor or will benefit from RE investors. You have to look beyond the advice of “RE experts” who have a self serving agenda.

    This rallying against short sighted solutions and only offering up other short sighted solutions really pisses me off. Given all of the unintended consequences, it seems that dropping inventory onto the market may actually prolong the situation even more than what is currently being done. Or maybe not. But I’m pretty sure no one really knows. So let’s be honest, this certainly isn’t as simple as ripping off the band-aid versus slowly peeling it off. The end results will not be the same. The hurry up and foreclose solution may be appropriate for Long Island, NY but come out west and visit Maricopa, AZ or Henderson, NV, or Victorville, CA, and actually talk to the people that live there and understand their local market, you can really see why it isn’t going to help the situation, and may actually make the problem both more severe and more prolonged.

  21. Had Enough says:


    “…actually talk to the people that live there and understand their local market, you can really see why it isn’t going to help the situation, and may actually make the problem both more severe and more prolonged.. ”

    I’m fighting back the tears for these poor unfortunates…

    Solution: Let them rent like the rest of did when it was a safer to do so than buy a property.

    Those poor, poor Maricopa, AZ or Henderson, NV, or Victorville, CA idiot homeowners and greedy flippers who bought at the peak in these places, laughing off warnings from prudent renters during the end of the bubble. Did anyone raise their voice in concern for the poor potential buyers who lost money to rent when they would have preferred buying because they refused to overpay for real estate they knew they could not reasonably afford and are now as liable to suffer the economic and tax consequences of these idiots’ actions?

    Of course not. We should instead do everything possible to protect the morons who got us into this mess even if it means continuing to punish the innocent people who got screwed because they didn’t want to gamble. Please let us know if the poor downtrodden homeowners you’re concerned about are going to be cold this winter and we’ll send them our furniture, clothes and cash to burn if they need it to keep warm in the houses we just bought them with our tax money.

    How about this… hurry up and foreclose so that prices GET BACK TO WHERE THEY SHOULD HAVE BEEN in the first place and prevent the further penalization of those who had nothing to do with this mess by forcing those guilty of participation to PAY as they should along with the mortgage originators, banks, and RE industry for their actions and at least permitting innocent and prudent first time buyers to purchase the properties at a reasonable rate – which should directly reflect the crappy job market AFTER discounting for the deflated credit bubble.

    Please, if anyone here can’t afford to keep paying their mortgage any longer, I encourage you to just walk away from it. After I buy your house from the bank for its 1994 price, you will find my apartment available for you to rent for as many years you need to save for a real down payment on a house you can better afford with your income.

  22. Onlooker from Troy says:

    Go get ‘em Had Enough!

  23. Brendan says:

    @Had Enough,

    You won’t cry tears for people who weren’t informed enough to realize overpaid for their homes, but you want me to cry tears for you because you weren’t informed enough to realize that the government would step in when this all went to shambles and that the banks wouldn’t fire sell every house for less than is owed in exchange for more loans? You didn’t consider that the banks might instead prop up the market and only want cash? So your innocent and getting screwed because you listened to financial pundits who said real estate was going to crash to 1994 levels while ignoring political and economic realities that make it so they won’t; but people who relied on their RE agents, appraisers and lenders (the so called experts in the field to whom they paid thousands of dollars to provide them with services) are idiots who deserve to get burned? I’m not sure I follow your logic. I know life’s not fair, but that’s not going to change. I know you’re mad, but at least be mad at the right people.

    I don’t think you fully understood what I was saying. Prices won’t necessarily go “BACK TO WHERE THEY SHOULD HAVE BEEN” faster either way. When banks do have to unload inventory today, investors are already picking up these foreclosures by the handful and sitting on them for future profits. The prices have now dropped far enough for this to be happening today. For you to buy that house, you have to either pay the investor’s profit or get really lucky on a public auction foreclosure that is willing to give you time to get a mortgage over an investor who has cash in hand. If you, as an apparently responsible hope-to-be homeowner, think you’d be able to get that same great deal as the investors, think again. The hope-to-be-homeowner often doesn’t have the connections to get the best deals (not everything goes out on the public market). Unsold finished homes, unfinished homes and raw dirt lots for entire subdivisions are being sold in packages. The same investors are moving in and sweeping up previously owned foreclosure inventory to consolidate business within individual areas, and position themselves for sales in the future. Even if they end up taking a slight loss (say the 6% mentioned in the post), they’ll more than make that back by avoiding having foreclosures all over their neighborhoods. I see it happening here a lot in the last few months; and they’re paying cash. And therein lies the problem. They’re buying cheap by buying in bulk and/or paying cash, pushing appraised values way down, but not actually putting homes on the market at these lower prices for you to buy. So even if you do get to bid on a given house, the market is so unstable, that you as a hope-to-be homeowner is going to have trouble getting a loan for the amount you’ll need to pay for a foreclosed home without an especially hefty down payment or cash in hand. Cash is still king, and the only people with cash are the investors. This also means that owner-occupiers in the neighborhood who might need to refinance, say, a 5-1 arm might find themselves in a situation where their house now appraises for way less than is owed due to the cash deals artificially lowering prices below natural level. Dumping more inventory will make this even worse. Now you have another foreclosure being scarfed up by investors that might have been avoided if prices stayed propped up. Like I said in my previous post, the people who have the most to gain from the “foreclose everything now” strategy are investors.

    Just how many hope-to-be-homeowners with hefty down payments in their pockets do you think are out there? Probably less than the number of homeowners who are still making monthly payments but may have paid a little too much for their homes. Unless you saved up an awful lot of money, you may still not be eligible for the best deals. Dumping these foreclosures on the market may not improve your situation, it may only move empty houses from banks to investors and owner-occupied houses to investors and still leave you out in the cold. It hurts homeowners who paid too much while not helping you as a potential buyer who can’t pay in full. So the banks defrauded buyers by appraising their house for more than it was worth, but when the homeowner want’s to renegotiate those terms, they’re somehow the bad guy who’s oppressing you?

    So what we’re seeing is a re-inflation of the same exact bubble in these areas. It really doesn’t matter if the bank owns it as a foreclosure, or an investor owns it. Either way, a lot of homes are being kept off the market. Lot’s of false scarcity exists not so much because homes that should be foreclosed upon are not being foreclosed upon. False scarcity exists to a large extent because we have a new wave of investors re-inflating the bubble. You think these banks are delaying foreclosure’s out of the goodness of their hearts (the FM/FM “foreclosure moratorium” was lifted 5 months ago)? No, they’re playing a strategic game of inflate the value of their assets. Remember that most banks are no longer as desperate for cash as they were 6 months ago. Sorry, homes in most areas will not be going down to their 1994 prices, ever. The bottom line is that the “get ‘em all on the market” rally cry is not the silver bullet some like to claim it is.

    Also consider this; if you’ve ever had bad neighbors, you know how they can cause you issues. Empty homes don’t generally make for good neighbors. So in neighborhoods with loads of previously occupied foreclosures but with fewer professional investors, there are a whole host of related problems. What you have here are lots of amateur investors who let the property go to hell until just before they’re ready to sell or they rent them. Neither is good for home values in neighborhoods. Overburdened towns and HOAs with lots of homes that owe back taxes and dues don’t make good enforcers. So if you’re really so responsible, you won’t buy in these dumpy neighborhoods, even if prices are cheap, so even if you do end up with lot’s of empty houses for sale, how does this help you? How does blame the “poor downtrodden homeowner,” to use your own words, really address the guilty parties, when the homeowner’s simply trusted hired professionals who were the ones either committing fraud or unqualified to do their job?

    So while I was lucky enough to have bought before the bubble in an established neighborhood, I do have a friend who lives in one of those very towns who bought at a price that he could afford, but higher than what he could get for his house today. He’s by no means, rich, looking for a quick buck, or irresponsibly gambling. Meanwhile, if his situation changes, these fire sales being called for could find himself upside-down on the house. For people like him, keeping prices propped up may just keep him in his house, rather that adding to the problem. In libertarian land there would be no government bail outs and this wouldn’t be acceptable, but in the real world this is how things work and have worked, so no one should really be surprised. Would I have bought when and where he did? No. But I could have turned out to be wrong. But did I buy into the stock market on a supposed expert’s advice 10 years ago expecting to at least keep up with inflation over the course of a decade? Yes. Would I have been better off buying CDs? Yes. Like him, I’m doing the best I can, and sometimes make mistakes. It’s all a gamble to some extent. This “dump the RE onto the market” cry just reeks of “Drill baby Drill” to me; another non-solution that get’s people riled up and diverts peoples focus from the real problems.

  24. dasht says:


    You make an interesting argument that holding the shadow and meta-shadow homes off the market is a better play long term but there are some problems with it.

    For one thing, the shadow stock is not exactly in some sci-fi kind of “statis field”, eternally preserved until the time is right to sell. Rather, many of these places are on an accelerated course towards dilapidation. Homes don’t automatically fix their leaks, run heat to prevent pipe freezing, call the police when squatters arrive, detect and resist invading pests and insects, or care for the landscaping – and the banks don’t appear to be keeping up with these little details.

    For another thing, nobody should be damn fool enough to buy into a market with a large shadow and meta-shadow stock because there’s an excellent chance (think “L-shaped recovery”) that they’ll quickly wind up under-water.

    For yet another thing, holding these homes off the market for a long time – trickling them out – hurts at least two other segments that are traditional profit centers for banks: housing starts and home improvement.

    Another: you suggesting a business strategy of price fixing and an investment strategy of market timing, all over an asset class that is depreciating rapidly in use value. Somehow, I don’t think that story ends well.

    Another: your strategy keeps people who are likely doomed to eventual foreclosure from doing a title in lieu of foreclosure to move to a cheaper place. In that way you are hurting both consumer spending and raising the transaction costs of processing the “meta-shadow” market. Your also losing fees and interest on new, lower principle mortgages that would actually be serviced by debtors.

    An analogy to what you are suggesting might be to certain forms of agricultural subsidy and market controls which succeed in *both* sucking up tax dollars *and* badly distorting the technology of production into irrational modes.

    I suppose that if it keeps up long enough, we’ll probably start to see a new found popularity of the notion of exercising eminent domain. That’ll be a fun fight. In the alternative, we’ll all wind up with foreign, mostly Asian holding company, landlords. It’ll be OK, though. We’ll be able to settle in the shanty towns that spring up in the parking lots and buildings of foreclosed and abandoned shopping malls.

    In your second message you speculate that if the stock were all put to market it would all wind up in the hands of speculators. Whose hands, exactly, do you think it is right now?


  25. [...] from the past week. Two interesting stories. First one from the WSJ via. Big Picture: A Coming Flood of Bank Owned Homes. and second one from Moody’s via Zero Hedgde: Moody’s Credit Card Index Hit Record [...]

  26. jc says:

    Mr Mortgage’s deatail explanation why various actions have dammed up a tsunami of foreclosures in CA and the bubble states.He been right all along!


  27. [...] You can read all about this coming inventory, which they call the ’shadow’ inventory BY CLICKING HERE [...]

  28. [...] Now, I think my buddy made a great purchase because it’s hard to argue with a 2-bedroom condo for just $US 60,000.  However, for the most part, I still think it’s too early to get into Florida real estate.  Why?  I think the $USD is going to get even cheaper and real estate is going to fall even further due to factors like greater supply coming to market as a result of the foreclosure moratorium. [...]